Heard Magic and Wilbon Ragging on Metrics.

[Admin]

Any stat that says a team should value Harden, CP3, Wesbrook, and 34 yr old Kobe, out on the perimeter over Dwight in the paint is wrong. You don't have to like my opinion. But it is my opinion. And its not based on favoritism for the hometown player, the end all be all of advanced stats, or a biased opinion towards all bigs or dislike for all guards.

Its based on an ability to watch a game, read a box score, and think for myself. I don't think I am the only one who does this. Last seasons draft here for the dynasty league went like this.

1-Bron

2-Durant

4-CP3

5-Howard

10-Wesbrook

16-Harden

27-Kobe Bryant

This draft was not about stats. None were used. It was not about contracts, none were used. It was only about picking players fans would want to build a team around. I am not the arrogant opinionated one here. Most fans at least in this draft, valued Howard over Westbrook, Harden, and Bryant by a pretty wide margin. I guess we are just wrong.

Look at the position flow / breakdown of the top 30 picks in our draft last year and it's pretty easy to see that PG and C are by far the most highly valued by the fans here.

PG - 10

SG - 3

SF - 3

PF - 5

C - 9

Draft Order:

1 - SF

SF

PG

PG

C

C

PF

PG

PF

PG

PG

C

PG

C

PG

SG

PF

C

C

SG

PG

C

PF

C

SF

PG

SG

PG

PF

30 - C

[KB21]

Since some want to argue against the use of ASPM as a tool to help determine player value, here are some historical career ASPM numbers. This is the ASPM ranking of players of All Times for their career:

[*]Michael Jordan 8.1 [*]LeBron James 7.7 [*]Chris Paul 7.1 [*]Dwyane Wade 6.2 [*]David Robinson 6.0 [*]Larry Bird 5.4 [*]Magic Johnson 5.3 [*]John Stockton 5.0 [*]Kobe Bryant 4.7 [*]Karl Malone 4.7 [*]Charles Barkley 4.6 [*]Hakeem Olajuwon 4.5 [*]Tim Duncan 4.5 [*]Shaquille O'Neal 4.5 [*]Manu Ginobili 4.5 [*]Kevin Garnett 4.3 [*]Clyde Drexler 4.0 [*]Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 3.8 [*]Dirk Nowitzki 3.8 [*]Allen Iverson 3.7 [*]Tracy McGrady 3.7 [*]Julius Erving 3.6 [*]Kevin Durant 3.5 [*]Dwight Howard 3.4 [*]Ben Wallace 3.3

Among the top 12 single season ASPM numbers, 10 of them were accomplished by Michael Jordan and LeBron James with Jordan having 7 of the 12 and James 3 of the 12. The other two players in the top 12 are Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade.

So, if I am understanding the opposing view correctly, it must just be a coincidence that the two greatest players of all time also dominate when it comes to ASPM.

[Admin]

Since some want to argue against the use of ASPM as a tool to help determine player value, here are some historical career ASPM numbers. This is the ASPM ranking of players of All Times for their career:

[*]Michael Jordan 8.1

[*]LeBron James 7.7

[*]Chris Paul 7.1

[*]Dwyane Wade 6.2

[*]David Robinson 6.0

[*]Larry Bird 5.4

[*]Magic Johnson 5.3

[*]John Stockton 5.0

[*]Kobe Bryant 4.7

[*]Karl Malone 4.7

[*]Charles Barkley 4.6

[*]Hakeem Olajuwon 4.5

[*]Tim Duncan 4.5

[*]Shaquille O'Neal 4.5

[*]Manu Ginobili 4.5

[*]Kevin Garnett 4.3

[*]Clyde Drexler 4.0

[*]Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 3.8

[*]Dirk Nowitzki 3.8

[*]Allen Iverson 3.7

[*]Tracy McGrady 3.7

[*]Julius Erving 3.6

[*]Kevin Durant 3.5

[*]Dwight Howard 3.4

[*]Ben Wallace 3.3

Among the top 12 single season ASPM numbers, 10 of them were accomplished by Michael Jordan and LeBron James with Jordan having 7 of the 12 and James 3 of the 12. The other two players in the top 12 are Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade.

So, if I am understanding the opposing view correctly, it must just be a coincidence that the two greatest players of all time also dominate when it comes to ASPM.

Who's arguing against that stat? I hadn't even heard of that stat before yesterday so I can't support or oppose it.

[Buzzard]

Here is my problem with stats. If you sort on win shares at basketball reference site, 7 of the top 12 players in the league are PG's including Conley and Hill at 11 and 12 above Wade at 13.

9 of the top 15 are PG's or SG's.

Only one center is in the top 15 and that is Marc Gasol.

Assist and threes get way to much weight IMO in any stat based system; when players like Conley 11th and Hill 12th are ranked 10 to 15 spots higher than Howard 29th and Duncan 24th.

[Buzzard]

Since some want to argue against the use of ASPM as a tool to help determine player value, here are some historical career ASPM numbers. This is the ASPM ranking of players of All Times for their career:

[*]Michael Jordan 8.1

[*]LeBron James 7.7

[*]Chris Paul 7.1

[*]Dwyane Wade 6.2

[*]David Robinson 6.0

[*]Larry Bird 5.4

[*]Magic Johnson 5.3

[*]John Stockton 5.0

[*]Kobe Bryant 4.7

[*]Karl Malone 4.7

[*]Charles Barkley 4.6

[*]Hakeem Olajuwon 4.5

[*]Tim Duncan 4.5

[*]Shaquille O'Neal 4.5

[*]Manu Ginobili 4.5

[*]Kevin Garnett 4.3

[*]Clyde Drexler 4.0

[*]Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 3.8

[*]Dirk Nowitzki 3.8

[*]Allen Iverson 3.7

[*]Tracy McGrady 3.7

[*]Julius Erving 3.6

[*]Kevin Durant 3.5

[*]Dwight Howard 3.4

[*]Ben Wallace 3.3

Among the top 12 single season ASPM numbers, 10 of them were accomplished by Michael Jordan and LeBron James with Jordan having 7 of the 12 and James 3 of the 12. The other two players in the top 12 are Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade.

So, if I am understanding the opposing view correctly, it must just be a coincidence that the two greatest players of all time also dominate when it comes to ASPM.

Your immediate problem KB is Stockton over Kareem, The Dream, Duncan, Howard, Shaq.

[Diesel]

Since some want to argue against the use of ASPM as a tool to help determine player value, here are some historical career ASPM numbers. This is the ASPM ranking of players of All Times for their career:

[*]Michael Jordan 8.1

[*]LeBron James 7.7

[*]Chris Paul 7.1

[*]Dwyane Wade 6.2

[*]David Robinson 6.0

[*]Larry Bird 5.4

[*]Magic Johnson 5.3

[*]John Stockton 5.0

[*]Kobe Bryant 4.7

[*]Karl Malone 4.7

[*]Charles Barkley 4.6

[*]Hakeem Olajuwon 4.5

[*]Tim Duncan 4.5

[*]Shaquille O'Neal 4.5

[*]Manu Ginobili 4.5

[*]Kevin Garnett 4.3

[*]Clyde Drexler 4.0

[*]Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 3.8

[*]Dirk Nowitzki 3.8

[*]Allen Iverson 3.7

[*]Tracy McGrady 3.7

[*]Julius Erving 3.6

[*]Kevin Durant 3.5

[*]Dwight Howard 3.4

[*]Ben Wallace 3.3

Among the top 12 single season ASPM numbers, 10 of them were accomplished by Michael Jordan and LeBron James with Jordan having 7 of the 12 and James 3 of the 12. The other two players in the top 12 are Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade.

So, if I am understanding the opposing view correctly, it must just be a coincidence that the two greatest players of all time also dominate when it comes to ASPM.

Into the numbers though... you have all those people ahead of Kareem?

[Buzzard]

Into the numbers though... you have all those people ahead of Kareem?

And the Dream...

[supermariowest]

I used to get into it with this guy on Realgm name Tsherkin because he was this stat wiz who swore on his opinions using advanced stats. I respected a lot of his opinions but a lot of times, he completely dismissed real game footage. That's something I take into great account. So you can use any stat that's there. I remember this one site where Josh Smith was some type of God at several years. He was the only player since... to ... and stuff like that. This is a simple game, do not try to over-analyze it.

Josh being the only player since somebody else to do something isn't an advanced statistic. Stuff like that is basketball trivia and nothing else.

That's the thing about guys who understand stats but have little understanding of the game. They have a hard time understanding impact is much more important than stats and that personnel is the holy grail of Basketball. Not just having a superstar which goes along way.

Why do you think the two are mutually exclusive? Statistics are unbiased records of what happened on the court. To fully understand stats, one must fully understand the game.

[MaceCase]

The stats may (and do) show that these perimeter players are 'better' players but you also have to consider some type of weight or scale or whatever that says that good/great big men are always more valuable than good/great perimeter players. Harden, Westbrook, etc. may have had better seasons than Dwight last year but if health isn't an issue and salaries are equal or not part of the equation I would guarantee you that 9/10 GMs would take Dwight over those guys and just after Lebron and Durant.

This is the problem that I'm pointing out that people are making. The stat is simply just pointing out what happened, it's not telling you what WILL happen or what SHOULD happen, just what happened. If you want to make any inference from there then the fault is on you, not the stat itself. If Kobe and Joe go head to head on a Tuesday night and Joe scores 30 to Kobe's 20 is the stat telling you that Joe is an overall better player than Kobe and that GMs would value him more and thus look to start their franchise with him? No.....you wouldn't make that inference in that situation so why are you making it now? Would you discount all scoring stats also and feel that they are useless because that result isnt jiving with your opinion? No, I would hope that no one is that irrational.It doesn't matter if Kobe was nursing a knee injury on a back to back, on the tailend of a 10 game road trip, the numbers aren't measuring for that. They are just telling you that he scored 20 on that particular night, period. You wouldn't jump through hoops to establish a different weighted metric that proves that Kobe's 20 was more impactful than Joe's 30 so why are you doing it here now for Dwight especially when this wasn't an issue for him before when he dominated the stat in previous years? Let's do the inverse now. Broadcasters and sportswriters are in charge of voting for DPOY and the All NBA teams, this includes people like Magic and Wilbon...the anti "metric heads" who trust their eyes. I sincerely doubt that the WoW guys have a single press credential or vote between them but I guarantee that half of the entire ESPN roster do. THEY selected Gasol over Dwight for DPOY, despite the All NBA team not actually being limited by position THEY selected Gasol, Kobe, Paul, Carmelo, Parker, Griffin, Westbrook and Duncan as the 1st and 2nd teamers over Dwight. Coaches are in charge of the All Defense teams and they didn't select Dwight to either.They aren't sitting around parsing through entire sheets of sabremetrics, they went with what they SAW instead. Should I make the argument that everyone should claw their eyes out because anything that ranks those guys ahead of Dwight is wrong? No but I'd be following along with this thread's genius logic.

[Admin]

This is the problem that I'm pointing out that people are making. The stat is simply just pointing out what happened, it's not telling you what WILL happen or what SHOULD happen, just what happened. If you want to make any inference from there then the fault is on you, not the stat itself.If Kobe and Joe go head to head on a Tuesday night and Joe scores 30 to Kobe's 20 is the stat telling you that Joe is an overall better player than Kobe and that GMs would value him more and thus look to start their franchise with him? No.....you wouldn't make that inference in that situation so why are you making it now? Would you discount all scoring stats also and feel that they are useless because that result isnt jiving with your opinion? No, I would hope that no one is that irrational.It doesn't matter if Kobe was nursing a knee injury on a back to back, on the tailend of a 10 game road trip, the numbers aren't measuring for that. They are just telling you that he scored 20 on that particular night, period. You wouldn't jump through hoops to establish a different weighted metric that proves that Kobe's 20 was more impactful than Joe's 30 so why are you doing it here now for Dwight especially when this wasn't an issue for him before when he dominated the stat in previous years?Let's do the inverse now. Broadcasters and sportswriters are in charge of voting for DPOY and the All NBA teams, this includes people like Magic and Wilbon...the anti "metric heads" who trust their eyes. I sincerely doubt that the WoW guys have a single press credential or vote between them but I guarantee that half of the entire ESPN roster do. THEY selected Gasol over Dwight for DPOY, despite the All NBA team not actually being limited by position THEY selected Gasol, Kobe, Paul, Carmelo, Parker, Griffin, Westbrook and Duncan as the 1st and 2nd teamers over Dwight. Coaches are in charge of the All Defense teams and they didn't select Dwight to either.They aren't sitting around parsing through entire sheets of sabremetrics, they went with what they SAW instead. Should I make the argument that everyone should claw their eyes out because anything that ranks those guys ahead of Dwight is wrong? No but I'd be following along with this thread's genius logic.

Why would anyone choose Dwight this past year when the perception was that he was having a down year, which he was, compared to his previous years of real dominance? I mean he still had a better year than Gasol but, because Gasol was perceived to have had a normal or better year by his standards and Dwight had a drastically subpar year by his standards, Gasol ended up seeming like the better player even if the stats don't back that up.

[MaceCase]

Who's arguing against that stat? I hadn't even heard of that stat before yesterday so I can't support or oppose it.

Uhm, that's the same stat that Buzz has being saying is complete bunk because Dwight didn't crack the top 5......I mean, I just responded to your other post thinking it was in direct response to me seeing as it came right after mine and addressed aspects that were in my post but you may be right, you may have not of been stating that you were for or against it. My apologies if so.

[Admin]

Uhm, that's the same stat that Buzz has being saying is complete bunk because Dwight didn't crack the top 5......I mean, I just responded to your other post thinking it was in direct response to me seeing as it came right after mine and addressed aspects that were in my post but you may be right, you may have not of been stating that you were for or against it. My apologies if so.

I have no position either way on that stat since I know nothing about it

[MaceCase]

Why would anyone choose Dwight this past year when the perception was that he was having a down year, which he was, compared to his previous years of real dominance? I mean he still had a better year than Gasol but, because Gasol was perceived to have had a normal or better year by his standards and Dwight had a drastically subpar year by his standards, Gasol ended up seeming like the better player even if the stats don't back that up.

Dol, you are absolutely confusing me as I really don't know what horse you are backing in this debate. My issue with Buzz is that he blatantly feels that ASPM is bunk because it doesn't jive with his eyes because there is absolutely no way in his mind that any credible stat can place anyone not named Lebron or Durant ahead of Dwigjt. Well I'm adding on that beyond the good folk of the Squawk and their draft selection before the past year, many folk who trust their eyes and opinion don't agree with Buzz's assessment either. So seeing as he was so visceral that stats lie, will he admit that his eyes can lie also or will he just go on to claim that the members of the media and coaches who are paid to watch the game are all just out to get him?

[Buzzard]

Dol, you are absolutely confusing me as I really don't know what horse you are backing in this debate. My issue with Buzz is that he blatantly feels that ASPM is bunk because it doesn't jive with his eyes because there is absolutely no way in his mind that any credible stat can place anyone not named Lebron or Durant ahead of Dwigjt. Well I'm adding on that beyond the good folk of the Squawk and their draft selection before the past year, many folk who trust their eyes and opinion don't agree with Buzz's assessment either. So seeing as he was so visceral that stats lie, will he admit that his eyes can lie also or will he just go on to claim that the members of the media and coaches who are paid to watch the game are all just out to get him?

Its really simple Mace, I do not base my opinion on a players worth on one season. I think most people use that type of common sense approach also when it comes to veteran players. My other opinion that is being discounted by most advanced stats, is Dwights worse season in his last seven was still better than Marc Gasol's; who BTW was ranked 23 spots higher than Howard in Win Shares.

Pts, rebounds, FG%, blocks are the four categories bigs are measured at the most. D12 beat out Gasol in all four categories. How the hell can anyone or any advanced stat mechanism find him to be a weaker center option than Gasol?

Why do I keep comparing Howard to Gasol and other centers? Because that is how I judge centers.

Edited June 22, 2013 by Buzzard

[Admin]

Mace I have no horse in this race, simply stating I would take Dwight over Gasol, Westbrook, Parker, Kobe and Harden even though the perception, based on last years stats, is that those guys are all better than Dwight. I just think Dwigut got too much blame and not enough credit last year because of a host of reasons but at the end of the day I'd leap at the chance to build my team around him. LeBron and Durant are the only players if choose over Dwight to start my team.

[MaceCase]

Its really simple Mace, I do not base my opinion on a players worth on one season. I think most people use that type of common sense approach also when it comes to veteran players. My other opinion that is being discounted by most advanced stats, is Dwights worse season in his last seven was still better than Marc Gasol's; who BTW was ranked 23 spots higher than Howard in Win Shares. Pts, rebounds, FG%, blocks are the four categories bigs are measured at the most. D12 beat out Gasol in all four categories. How the hell can anyone or any advanced stat mechanism find him to be a weaker center option than Gasol? Why do I keep comparing Howard to Gasol and other centers? Because that is how I judge centers.

I'll make it simpler for YOU1) the stat was not developed and no one set out to use it to determine a player's "worth". It was simply a measurement of the previous season's production and rankings, period. You are inventing an argument that has nothing to do with the stat but rather your interpretation of what it means.2) no, those are the selective stats that YOU chose to serve as the criteria of what big men are judged by. Just because Dwight is limited to those categories doesn't mean that every other big man should be too. What about FT%, assists and turnovers? Lets just pump up part of the game and omit the rest of it all in an effort to confirm your own bias. This is the exact nonsense that you are accusing stat heads of being guilty of, selecting singular categories and using it to form a complete opinion on players. Oh the irony!3)Magic, Wilbon, the rest of the media and coaches all compared Gasol to Dwight also and ranked him ahead. WTF makes your opinion so special that stats and professionals' analysis don't matter?

[MaceCase]

Mace I have no horse in this race, simply stating I would take Dwight over Gasol, Westbrook, Parker, Kobe and Harden even though the perception, based on last years stats, is that those guys are all better than Dwight. I just think Dwigut got too much blame and not enough credit last year because of a host of reasons but at the end of the day I'd leap at the chance to build my team around him. LeBron and Durant are the only players if choose over Dwight to start my team.

And again, all the stats say is that they were better than Dwight.....last year.Not the previous year or years.Not in the future.Last year.The number one rule of statistical analysis is sample size (I don't know, maybe. I didn't actually go to school for this shit). A single season doesn't offer enough data to form the conclusions you guys are complaining that the stat is forming. Again, that's your invention and not the stat's.

[Admin]

And again, all the stats say is that they were better than Dwight.....last year.Not the previous year or years.Not in the future.Last year.The number one rule of statistical analysis is sample size (I don't know, maybe. I didn't actually go to school for this shit). A single season doesn't offer enough data to form the conclusions you guys are complaining that the stat is forming. Again, that's your invention and not the stat's.

I still don't agree that they were better last year, just that the perception was that they were better based on those stats.

[MaceCase]

I still don't agree that they were better last year, just that the perception was that they were better based on those stats.

And I'll point out again that you'd have a hard time convincing me that the media and coaching populations are dominated by stat heads. A good majority of them subscribe to the same school as Wilbon and Magic, in fact of the ESPN panel only Simmons even knows what advanced stats are and I doubt even he's ever heard of WS, VORP or ASPM.So the advanced stats can't be the driving factor behind their consensus opinion (although they do actually confirm it), therefore the coaches and media have to be voting on what they see with their own eyes or feel with their gut.This is perfect synergy if you ask me, the "eyes" are coinciding with the "stats" lending greater credibility to each other. You are still entitled to disagree but it's a rather rock solid argument to try and claim is baseless.

[Admin]

It has nothing to do with them knowing the stats or not, although I guarantee you they look at the raw stats that show Dwihht had a down year for himself while Gasol did not. What they ignore is that Dwight's down year was still better than Gasols, but the perception of their years last year vs their careers and that perception holds true whether you use raw stats, advanced stats or the eyeball test.