Another article on FA landing spots

[Chinky_eyed_hawk]

Choosing Destinations For The 2013 Free Agency Class

By: Daniel Leroux

Jun 24, 2013 7:42 PM EDT

Inspired by my complete lack of desire and ability to predict what Dwight Howard will do this summer, it seemed like a fun opportunity to do an article I have always wanted to write: what every major free agent should do this summer. Without knowing for sure what teams will offer in terms of salary, some of this will be conjecture but will be my best guess.

Since Restricted Free Agents do not have much choice in the matter, their sections will be shorter and more direct.

The ranking order comes from Amin Elhassan from ESPN to help simplify the process.

1. Dwight Howard, C, Unrestricted Free Agent

The problem for Howard is that he cannot be sure that he will be a good enough recruiter to sign blind anywhere without the pieces already in place. In effect, if he makes a long-term commitment it should be to a team who has a roster at signing that he would be happy with for the duration of the contract. Thanks to the new rules that restrict teams over the luxury tax apron from acquiring players via sign-and-trade, the number of teams slims down somewhat for this summer. His two best options are the Houston Rockets and signing a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Lakers that would put him in the 2014 monster FA class.

Houston has a No. 1 scorer in James Harden and plenty of other talent along with the cap space to sign Howard outright (after a few small moves). That flexibility coupled with their scheme and well-structured salaries make them the best situation available this summer.

Unless Howard falls off a cliff next season, he will still warrant max money, so the other reasonable option would be to play one more season with the Lakers and then try to play with another elite talent (i.e. LeBron James) wherever. Committing to the Lakers right now would be a mistake because he cannot be sure that Jim Buss’s team will pull another top-level guy into their orbit and it would be a useless risk to take.

2. Chris Paul, PG, Unrestricted Free Agent

Earlier in the year, I wrote that Chris Paul’s decision is the most important one for any single franchise in the league for a long time because his departure would likely send the Los Angeles Clippers into a slow and agonizing tailspin thanks to their owner. Paul has the benefit of having a solid situation in front of him despite their first round playoff exit. Even though Donald Sterling is a slumlord and a terrible owner, Paul has helped woo enough supporting talent to make Lob City a legitimate contender to make the NBA Finals unless the West gets a superteam.

As was the case with Howard, the only team with space that has the talent to potentially be better than the Clippers has to be Houston. Jeremy Lin could be kept as injury insurance or traded as an asset since his contract lasts only two more seasons. The other major difference between Paul and Howard has to be Paul’s knee. His uncertain health makes him more likely to take the max contract now and be happy with it, though I would take a one-year deal to try and play with LeBron next summer- the amount of risk seems worth it since Paul knows the Clippers would be overjoyed to bring him back in 2014 and James has shown legitimate interest in playing with the best PG in the league.

3. Josh Smith, PF, Unrestricted Free Agent

Smith is the first player with an uncertain money component since he wants the max and seems unlikely to get it. As such, it gets more difficult to say what he should do without knowing the dollar figures involved. Beyond salary, Smith should look for a team with a point guard who can distribute who plays at a fast tempo. Denver (possible via sign-and-trade), Indiana (same) and Houston would all be compelling destinations that may have the right amount of interest for where his market ends up. Unfortunately for Smith, I do not see Indiana and Denver as having the required interest/flexibility to make a deal happen so a return to Atlanta actually makes the most sense.

4. Andrew Bynum, C, Unrestricted Free Agent

If anyone offers him anywhere approaching a long-term max deal, Bynum should go there immediately. Otherwise, going to a team with a need for a center on a substantial one-year contract (like Dallas or Minnesota if Pekovic heads elsewhere) would be a gutsy and compelling move.

5. Andre Iguodala, SF/SG, Early Termination Option

In a decision that parallels Chris Paul’s, Iguodala has a nice situation with Denver to compare other options to and could also elect to not exercise his ETO and become a member of the 2014 bonanza. The security of a long-term deal should be alluring but it would not be worth it to go to a bad situation in order to get the money this summer. Denver, Houston and Atlanta would all be interesting and logical landing spots.

6. David West, PF, Unrestricted Free Agent

A classic example of money vs. fit since Indiana should not overpay him. West turns 33 before the start of next season and this marks his last chance to get a substantial contract in the league. Either way can be wholly justified and he should have a few solid years left in the tank.

7. Nikola Pekovic, C, Restricted Free Agent

At 27 years old, Pekovic should go for the money while it is out there and let Minnesota make their own decision on matching.

8. Al Jefferson, C, Unrestricted Free Agent

Since Utah already has Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter around, it feels unlikely that they bring back both Jefferson and Millsap considering the amount of money both could receive as free agents. That said, a more constricted market for Jefferson here could actually provide some more interesting options like playing next to Al Horford with the Hawks, Kyrie Irving with the Cavaliers, or Anthony Davis with the Pelicans ould all work nicely. Portland would make sense as well. New Orleans sits just 150 miles away from his hometown and has logical surrounding talent as well.

9. Paul Millsap, PF, Unrestricted Free Agent

Like his teammate Al Jefferson, we could see Millsap price himself out of the good situations or choose to take a little less to be on a better team long-term. Atlanta, Houston and a return to the Jazz stand out in terms of the fit/money combination.

10. OJ Mayo, SG, Player Option

As someone who has never gotten the big contract everyone expected him to receive, now is the time to get the most money possible. Simple as that for a player this young.

11. Tyreke Evans, SG/SF, Restricted Free Agent

Being an RFA and having a pretty solid amount of market value, Evans can take the money and see if the new Sacramento ownership matches. It would not be smart for Evans to roll the dice on a qualifying offer.

12. Brandon Jennings, PG, Restricted Free Agent

As the second best point guard on the market, the money should be there if that’s what Jennings wants most. If Jennings gets offered a deal worth $36 million or more over four seasons, he should take it and see if Milwaukee matches. Otherwise, becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent next summer in a weak PG class and lots of high-end talent makes the most sense. Look for Dallas to be a part of the bidding this summer.

13. Jeff Teague, PG, Restricted Free Agent

Parallels Brandon Jennings to a degree though it appears that the elder Teague is happier with his situation and thus should be willing to accept a lower offer to stay. His lack of tantalizing upside makes taking the risk of waiting much less palatable as well.

14. Andrei Kirilenko, SF, Player Option

The concept of financial security works a little differently for Kirilenko since it seems like he can make plenty of money playing in Russia should he ever choose to go back. I would love to see him ring hunt for a year or two on Miami or Oklahoma City though he could try for a more lucrative deal somewhere else.

15. JJ Hickson, PF, Unrestricted Free Agent

Follow the money, plain and simple.

16. Tiago Splitter, C/PF, Restricted Free Agent

Splitter picked exactly the right time to have his strongest season and should get some solid offers for his next deal. I fully expect the Spurs to match any non-ridiculous deal so Splitter should go after it and end up returning to San Antonio.

17. JJ Redick, SG, Unrestricted Free Agent

The ultimate money vs. fit guy in this class. JJ Redick joining the Thunder, Bulls, Heat, Grizzlies, Nuggets or Pacers could meaningfully shift the balance of power among the top teams for the next few seasons. However, leaving millions per year on the table becomes that much harder when you have never received that big NBA contract. At 28, I would take the MLE if Oklahoma City offers it (assuming Ray Allen stays with Miami) and otherwise go after more money in Portland.

18. Timofey Mozgov, C, Restricted Free Agent

Take the money and run, ideally to a team where he could be the primary backup at center.

19. Tony Allen, SG, Unrestricted Free Agent

It would be totally justified for Allen to take the money somewhere else but the idea of it just feels wrong considering how important he has been to the identity of this Memphis team. Tony Allen pulling a Ray Allen and becoming a monster role player for the Heat would be pretty incredible as well.

20. Monta Ellis, SG/PG, Early Termination Option

As much fun as it would be to see Ellis take less money to play with a contender, some team will be dumb enough to offer him a ton of money this summer since we all know Monta Ellis have it all.

21. Kevin Martin, SG, Unrestricted Free Agent

Even though he has his limitations, Kevin Martin’s efficient scoring gives him a place in the league on nearly every team. At 30, the only way for him to get two more substantial deals would be to have this one be a short one (two years or so) but I would go somewhere else if a team offers him a nice three or four year deal.

22. Manu Ginobili, SG, Unrestricted Free Agent

The Spurs. Anything else would be terrible.

23. Darren Collison, PG, Restricted Free Agent

Unlike most young players, Collison would be well-served to look at both situation and money since he likely will need to place himself well in order to get a nice third contract in the league, sort of paralleling former Pac-10 foe and Mavericks teammate OJ Mayo. Dallas works fine but I would look hard at Utah, Charlotte and Detroit for short deals to boost his value.

24. Corey Brewer, SG, Unrestricted Free Agent

Brewer has found a nice niche in Denver with a system that helps mask some of his biggest faults. Conning a different team into giving him more money than he deserves is always a possibility but otherwise I would return to Ty Lawson and the team that uses Brewer so well. That said, whoever ends up with George Karl makes similar sense for the next deal.

25. Jarrett Jack, PG, Unrestricted Free Agent

If the money is close, a return to Golden State would make the most sense for Jack since their head coach loves him and the system makes sense for his game. That said, a nice offer from a team in a better cap situation would be worth taking since Jarrett has maximized his value right now for the later stages of his career.

26. JR Smith, SG/SF, Player Option

One of the most talented players in the league to never get a big payday will finally get one this summer. It would be great if a team with potential like Cleveland or Portland made a big offer but he should go for the security of the most guaranteed money he can get.

27. Dorell Wright, SF, Unrestricted Free Agent

Wright may end up being the reverse Redick and pricing himself into a nice situation. Atlanta, Washington, Minnesota (if AK leaves), New Orleans, Sacramento and Phoenix could all use a “3-D” player in their rotation while he could also take a little bit less to play for a contender.

28. Kyle Korver, SF, Unrestricted Free Agent

Pretty easy: the place most likely to get a ring where the money is even close.

29. Gary Neal, SG/PG, Restricted Free Agent

We do not really know if the Spurs are willing to pay Neal long-term since they have Cory Joseph who Popovich has really taken a liking to. Either way, a youngster getting paid less than a million per year owes it to himself to see what RC Buford and San Antonio will match.

30. Eric Maynor, PG, Restricted Free Agent

Going the OJ Mayo route and taking less years to try and boost your value makes less sense for a guy like Maynor who has never shown the types of flashes that get teams to open their checkbooks. As such, he should take a longer contract if anyone offers it and otherwise do a season or two somewhere where he would get minutes like Cleveland, Washington, Detroit, Indiana or Utah.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/228353/Choosing-Destinations-For-The-2013-Free-Agency-Class

Edited June 25, 2013 by Dolfan23
Re-formatted for easier reading

[Admin]

Thanks for posting! This is a nice list to use as a reference of the best free agents.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Putting Monta Ellis and JR Smith so low on this list, is simply idiotic.

Both are perfectly suited to be that volume shooting 6th man type that people seem to love these days. The trick is to give them heavy minutes when they are shooting and scoring well, and limit their minutes when their shot is off.

A team like Memphis would kill for both of those guys, in replacement of Jerryd Bayless.

[Admin]

Putting Monta Ellis and JR Smith so low on this list, is simply idiotic.

Both are perfectly suited to be that volume shooting 6th man type that people seem to love these days. The trick is to give them heavy minutes when they are shooting and scoring well, and limit their minutes when their shot is off.

A team like Memphis would kill for both of those guys, in replacement of Jerryd Bayless.

Ellis is going to want to get paid a lot more than a 6th man type and JR may get more than that too. Even though their abilities don't match up to what they're probably looking for radically reduces their value in my eyes.

[DJlaysitup]

"Unfortunately for Smith, I do not see Indiana and Denver as having the required interest/flexibility to make a deal happen so a return to Atlanta actually makes the most sense."

Most of the article is pretty good analysis IMO...I'm not sure this is though.

Thanks for posting!

[DrReality]

Dorell Wright, SF, He'd be a nice addition to the team and fit in to Budz plan.

[Chinky_eyed_hawk]

"Unfortunately for Smith, I do not see Indiana and Denver as having the required interest/flexibility to make a deal happen so a return to Atlanta actually makes the most sense."

Most of the article is pretty good analysis IMO...I'm not sure this is though.

Thanks for posting!

Yeah no problem. I thought it was a good read.

What they should have said was "with the emergence of Faried......" no way this happens. No way Denver makes this move. They love Faried. Hell...if another person calls me Faried trying to make a f'n joke.....

[Admin]

Yeah no problem. I thought it was a good read.

What they should have said was "with the emergence of Faried......" no way this happens. No way Denver makes this move. They love Faried. Hell...if another person calls me Faried trying to make a f'n joke.....

You have a problem of being confused with Faried?? Now that's something I didn't expect to read.

[AHF]

I'm not impressed with this article.

(1) They say that Howard should go where there is talent but then ignore the idea of him teaming with Chris Paul (and Horford for that matter).

(2) They suggest Josh Smith should return to Atlanta.

(3) They suggest Paul Millsap is a good fit in Atlanta.

[Dragitoff]

You have a problem of being confused with Faried?? Now that's something I didn't expect to read.

I get that all the time on the court with the guys I play with. I'm a carbon copy of him (I'm 6' 200lbs. and white with short hair)

[Chinky_eyed_hawk]

I get that all the time on the court with the guys I play with. I'm a carbon copy of him (I'm 6' 200lbs. and white with short hair)

I don't look the part of a baller for sure, but because I am always out in different circles, the black guy with the dreads seems to get "you know who you look like" question...

[Dragitoff]

Lol. My game is more like josh smith's than Faried's. defense when I want to, rebounds, a lot of silly turnovers from stupid passes, an occasional blow your mind dish, lots of bricks, a few swishes.

[Admin]

I don't look the part of a baller for sure, but because I am always out in different circles, the black guy with the dreads seems to get "you know who you look like" question...

With your screen name I was not expecting you to be a black guy with dreads!

[Dragitoff]

With your screen name I was not expecting you to be a black guy with dreads!

Me either!

[Chinky_eyed_hawk]

I'm not impressed with this article.

(1) They say that Howard should go where there is talent but then ignore the idea of him teaming with Chris Paul (and Horford for that matter).

(2) They suggest Josh Smith should return to Atlanta.

(3) They suggest Paul Millsap is a good fit in Atlanta.

1. I know we are hawks fans but despite our optimism and cap space many around the league have less confidence in if we can pull cp3 away from LA with Doc at the helm, or if they would both play here not. That is the consensus around the league I would say. Not just media BS

2.Although we don't want to resign Smith with the chance it would cost us the bigger FAs, Danny was trying to extend him last year. Not too far fetched to think it couldn't happen. I hope not ....but it is just as much of a possibility as it is to bring in bigger FAs.

3. Why wouldn't it be? Although the possibility of having Dwight Howard in the mix has everyone thinking about Al at the 4 again, but we have no idea what DF has in store. He may very well be content with Horford playing the 5 in Buds system just as much as playing the 4.

[capstone21]

Ellis is going to want to get paid a lot more than a 6th man type and JR may get more than that too. Even though their abilities don't match up to what they're probably looking for radically reduces their value in my eyes.

Ellis is the most overrated player in this league...I was glad to see they didn't rate him so high. He is not a winner...he is a stats guy

[Chinky_eyed_hawk]

With your screen name I was not expecting you to be a black guy with dreads!

lol... oh yeah. my eyes stay low.

[WraithSentinel]

https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/349941075676364800Rockets just made a trade. Now they can give Howard the max. It seem according to Stien. Many Execs believe Rockets are the favorite to land Howard over the Lakers.