Time to go on the record...Hawks wins for next season?

[macdaddy]

I can't help but feel Ferry has one more major roster move to make. We have a gap at SF/SG in terms of a starter and I can't help but feel Ferry would trade for that. DMC, Korver, Jenkins, Lou...I just can't see two of those four as full time starters.

Based on that I think a healthy team can get 45-50 wins.

I agree. None of those four has really ever been a full time starter. If we find a starting 2 guard though and start DMC at the 3 then we have Lou and Korver off the bench. That's some gunning right there. Of course Korver may be the starter.

[Sothron]

I agree. None of those four has really ever been a full time starter. If we find a starting 2 guard though and start DMC at the 3 then we have Lou and Korver off the bench. That's some gunning right there. Of course Korver may be the starter.

Here's the problem with our idea: what exactly do we trade BACK to get a guy? I don't think there's anyone left as a free agent that is a starter quality. Based on what we are doing I wish they had scared up a two year deal better than the Nets for AK-47 because he's such a good overall talent.

[TheFuzz]

Would've liked AK.

We'll see whether we're buyers or sellers at the deadline, but this team coupled with the Spurs system could win a lot of regular season games thanks to our speed, 3pt shooting and overall efficiency. If we turn some of our assets into a legit 3 or 5 we could make a run at a top 3.

Or we could miss the playoffs. It's hard to tell.

Edit: Oh yea. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we win 52 games and finish with the #4 seed behind Miami, Indiana and Chicago. I think Brooklyn disappoints a little bit in the regular season thanks to age and injuries, but outperform us in the playoffs. The Knicks could make a run at the #1 seed thanks to Bargnani .

Edited July 17, 2013 by TheFuzz

[yungsta]

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/371273-hawks-predictions/?hl=prediction

here is the prediction thread from last year. The consensus was right with us being around a 45 win team and a lower seed playoff team.

here was my prediction

We are going to start the season HOT. (top 3 3-point shooting team, top 5 offensive team)we are going to be the number 3 seed for a few weeks then mid season we are going to fall off pretty bad so bad that it looks like we wont make the playoffs. We some how make the playoffs as the 8th seed then lose in the 1st round.

I was right about us being a 3rd seed than falling off badly. But I overestimated how badly we would fall off. We only fell to the 6th seed but we did go on some pretty bad losing streaks where we didnt look like a playoff team so I was right about that.

Im not sure what ranked our 3 point shooting was or our offense during that hot start but I remember a big reason we got to that hot start because we were a top ranked defense at the time.

Edited July 17, 2013 by yungsta

[Admin]

This is from Arturo Galletti at Wages of Wins:

Projected wins and East Rankings:

1. Miami Heat 53 wins

2. Chicago Bulls 50 wins

3. Atlanta Hawks 48 wins

4. Milwaukee Bucks 47 wins

5. Toronto Raptors 45 wins

6. Cleveland Cavaliers 44 wins

7. Detroit Piston 41 wins

8. Washington Wizards 41 wins

Fans are really overestimating the Brooklyn Nets right now. Father time is undefeated, and they have to have things go perfect for them to be as successful as many of you think they will be this year. They have a first time head coach that has no coaching experience at all, and he's going to have to handle a bunch of egos in that locker room as well as attempt to put those guys in the right positions to succeed.

The other overrated team in the East are the New York Knicks. This is a poorly coached team that has a collection of players that wouldn't know what a good shot was if it hit them in the face.

With that said, I do feel like Arturo underestimates the Indiana Pacers and overestimates both the Cavaliers and the Wizards.

This is pure comedy gold Jerry, comedy gold! The Hawks are going to win 48 games as their nominal level? Maybe... but the Knicks are going to fall off from 54 wins last year to 33 wins this year and the Pacers are going from 49 to 36? I hope this guy isn't a betting man or he's going to lose his life's savings. Oh wait sorry I missed how the 2 time defending champs will go from 66 to 53 wins.

[Admin]

I think Indiana is somewhere in between the 36 projected wins Arturo has them having and the 49 wins they had this past season. Last year, this system had the Pacers projected at around 42-43 wins, and they won 49. If you look at the simple rating, they have them at around 41 wins even though their nominal wins are at around 36-37.

I personally think Indiana is probably a 43-44 win team. Last year, if the Hawks had a healthy Zaza and Lou, they beat the Pacers in the playoffs.

They won 49 games with Hibbert playing like trash for the 1st half of the season, no Granger, George was just starting to come into his own, Stephenson hadn't figured it out yet and they had little bench production. They're as close to a lock for 55+ wins as I could guess even if Granger doesn't come back.

[Admin]

I can't help but feel Ferry has one more major roster move to make. We have a gap at SF/SG in terms of a starter and I can't help but feel Ferry would trade for that. DMC, Korver, Jenkins, Lou...I just can't see two of those four as full time starters.

Based on that I think a healthy team can get 45-50 wins.

I agree, I think he wants to find a starting caliber player to slot into one of those positions, likely a 3 and D type of guy, with the primary focus on D. That would allow him to play with either Jenkins or Korver and be sufficient defensively. I also expect him to either find a weak side shot blocker or to reach and bring Nogueira over this year.

[yungsta]

I dont think the nets will have problems with egos. KG and Pierce have always been unselfish team oriented players.

So has ak-47 and terry never had a problem taking a lesser role and coming off the bench.

The biggest problem is how they are going work offensively and their perimeter defense.

Their coaching is going to be a question mark too but I heard the assistants are mostly going to be running the offense and defensive schemes and Kidd is mostly their just because hes a familiar face.

I think they will win in the 48-53 ish record with homecourt advantage in the first round.

Edited July 18, 2013 by yungsta

[KB21]

This is pure comedy gold Jerry, comedy gold! The Hawks are going to win 48 games as their nominal level? Maybe... but the Knicks are going to fall off from 54 wins last year to 33 wins this year and the Pacers are going from 49 to 36? I hope this guy isn't a betting man or he's going to lose his life's savings. Oh wait sorry I missed how the 2 time defending champs will go from 66 to 53 wins.

Really, because this was his projection for last year:

He undershot the Heat, but he had the Knicks at 55.27 wins. They won 54. He had the Hawks at 47.66 wins. They won 44.

[Sothron]

I agree, I think he wants to find a starting caliber player to slot into one of those positions, likely a 3 and D type of guy, with the primary focus on D. That would allow him to play with either Jenkins or Korver and be sufficient defensively. I also expect him to either find a weak side shot blocker or to reach and bring Nogueira over this year.

Really wish they had offered AK47 a better two year deal than the Nets.

[ag82]

Really wish they had offered AK47 a better two year deal than the Nets.

I don't think it is a total coincidence that he signed for less to play with the russian owner. I think he was going there regardless of any offer we make.

[Sothron]

I don't think it is a total coincidence that he signed for less to play with the russian owner. I think he was going there regardless of any offer we make.

I am fairly certain the Nets owner paid AK47 under the table. There's no way he'd take such a huge pay cut to be a backup otherwise.

[Wretch]

I'm gonna say the top three are:

Miami

Indiana

Chicago

Middle of the pack:

Brooklyn

New York

Atlanta

Fighting for the bottom seeds:

Milwuakee

Detroit

Cleveland

Washington

Positive changes for the Hawks:

No more Smoove sucking up shots, chucking up bad ones

Replaced with a Millsap that knows his role and can be just as efficient on the boards/scoring (with less bullshit)

Horford steps up now that this is his team and with the absence of Smoove chucking jumpers

(predicting) Teague's continued growth

Lou returning...

Barring any dramatic changes...all that to me equals a VERY solid season, probably a ceiling of 4th seed, with good coaching...flirting with #3 seed, with a floor of 6th seed.

48+ wins...

Floor: 45. Ceiling: 51

:D

[Admin]

Really, because this was his projection for last year:

He undershot the Heat, but he had the Knicks at 55.27 wins. They won 54. He had the Hawks at 47.66 wins. They won 44.

Great he got lucky last year. Explain how the Knicks have a historic drop off like this from 54 to 33 please. Explain again being way under on the Heat. Explain how the Pacers are suddenly so much worse. These projections are awful.

[yungsta]

I am fairly certain the Nets owner paid AK47 under the table. There's no way he'd take such a huge pay cut to be a backup otherwise.

there no way a veteran takes a paycut so he can have a shot at winning? He obviously thinks they are a contender.

[LamarHampton]

I don't think it is a total coincidence that he signed for less to play with the russian owner. I think he was going there regardless of any offer we make.

Prolly what's going on with the delay in Pek signing - trying to work him in the Brooklyn lineup somehow to make them a Soviet Powerhouse in the Eastern Conference

[LamarHampton]

I can't help but feel Ferry has one more major roster move to make. We have a gap at SF/SG in terms of a starter and I can't help but feel Ferry would trade for that. DMC, Korver, Jenkins, Lou...I just can't see two of those four as full time starters.

Based on that I think a healthy team can get 45-50 wins.

Certainly feels like DF still has something up his sleeve. I'm guessing it'll be at the 5 spot since there are a lot of people we have that can be mixed and matched at the SF/SG spot (like those listed and Scott). Apparently Daly is off the table since he's now agreed to a spot with the Mavs ( http://espn.go.com/dallas/nba/story/_/id/9486487/samuel-dalembert-reaches-deal-dallas-mavericks-sources ), so I'm not really sure who else might still be in play realistically. Could be a solid 2 or 3 I guess. Who knows. But in any event, I think you're right in the estimation of wins. Lou coming back should have a big impact - actually looks like we have a very strong 2nd unit we're putting together.

This is pure comedy gold Jerry, comedy gold! The Hawks are going to win 48 games as their nominal level? Maybe... but the Knicks are going to fall off from 54 wins last year to 33 wins this year and the Pacers are going from 49 to 36? I hope this guy isn't a betting man or he's going to lose his life's savings. Oh wait sorry I missed how the 2 time defending champs will go from 66 to 53 wins.

Eh .... yeah, I'm not so sure how they came up with those numbers. Even with JR going down and whatnot I just don't see the Knicks dropping that far. And the Heat? What's with them losing so many more games? Mike Miller getting kicked out of town? That team should have no problem getting some key guys to come in on the cheap just for a shot at a ring. Maybe the Pacers overachieved last year, but most all of their key components to that overachieving squad are back, so I would rather overestimate them until they prove otherwise.

[NBASupes]

To lose as many games as possible. I want Parker, Wiggins, Exum, or Cauley-Stein

[NBASupes]

Great he got lucky last year. Explain how the Knicks have a historic drop off like this from 54 to 33 please. Explain again being way under on the Heat. Explain how the Pacers are suddenly so much worse. These projections are awful.

KB21 has an amazing tendency to value stats over common sense and watching games. If he would just show us the stats and let us come to our own conclusions, I honestly think it would be better served.

KB, there is no way the Hawks are going to have anywhere near as good as a regular as:

Miami

Brooklyn

New York

Chicago

Indiana

There are teams who should be better than Atlanta like

Cleveland

Detroit

Washington

Teams on per are

Toronto

Boston

Milwaukee

Teams worse are

Orlando

Philly

Charlotte

in the East.

Edited July 18, 2013 by nbasupes40retired

[taz]

Great he got lucky last year. Explain how the Knicks have a historic drop off like this from 54 to 33 please. Explain again being way under on the Heat. Explain how the Pacers are suddenly so much worse. These projections are awful.

Cause they overachieved big time and a lot of their success had to do with JR Smith playing like a guy trying to earn a contract. I don't think they'll be higher than a four or five seed.