Just have a wild thought....

[ATLSmith]

The NBA's problem is they have over-expanded and the talent pool is spread too thin.

Even if they go to "the wheel" there will still be marquee teams that are able to recruit top talent and stay ahead of the everyone else.

[Diesel]

The NBA's problem is they have over-expanded and the talent pool is spread too thin.

Even if they go to "the wheel" there will still be marquee teams that are able to recruit top talent and stay ahead of the everyone else.

This is why I say that if they adopt the wheel, they will basically have to put some guards on FAcy. They have been trying to contain FAcy with a Luxury tax. What I forsee is a hard cap and slots set aside for 2 Rookie Salaries and 3 Vet Mins. So 5 of 14 of the slots will be taken care of and the team would have to fill in the rest. Some other changes that would have to take place is set salaries for a rookie contract. Meaning that each first round rookie makes X amount and each 2nd rounder makes Y amount.

So let's say that a Hard cap is set for each team to use 70 Million.

4 Million for a first round Rookie

1.5 Million for a 2nd round Rookie.

2 (X 3) for Vet Mins picks.

So that's 11.5 from the 70. = 58.5 Million left for 9 contracts per year.

So you could get a big three @ 15 Million per. but after you have spent your 45 million, your team only has 13.5 Million for 6 players. So really, a player would be responsible for how good his team can be. GMs would have to be fiscally responsible. And the game would not be dictated by who has more money.

I'm back and fourth in my mind about contract negotiations.. I say no.

[AHF]

I don't see how the draft wheel is realistic and any changes to the compensation for draft slots or to the cap, FA, etc. would require the players to sign off and that isn't happening. Expect smaller changes to the lottery if any are made.

[ATLSmith]

I don't see how the draft wheel is realistic and any changes to the compensation for draft slots or to the cap, FA, etc. would require the players to sign off and that isn't happening. Expect smaller changes to the lottery if any are made.

The one way they could change the lottery is by changing the odds so the lower seeds have a better chance of receiving a top pick. This way there's less incentive to tank for the top slots and more incentive to just go for the playoffs with a chance of still getting a good pick if the team doesn't make it.

This also means that mediocre teams could be a contender in two to three years with one or two lucky draws instead of going through a five to six year rebuilding process (which is very frustrating for fans and it may not even work out).

[frosgrim]

I agree with ATLSmith: there just isn't enough talent to go around. This puts a significant premium on getting a high lotto guy in really good years. However, the data demonstrate tanking rarely successful.

[Diesel]

I don't see how the draft wheel is realistic and any changes to the compensation for draft slots or to the cap, FA, etc. would require the players to sign off and that isn't happening. Expect smaller changes to the lottery if any are made.

The only thing that the players union really care about is player's salary and benefit. IF every incoming player had a salary that was set by the league based on BRI.. and every team had a right to get the #1 pick overall during a 30 yr span and you don't have teams like Cleveland getting multiple #1 picks.. I think teams would be interested. To protect the smaller market teams, teams would have to have a limit of how much cap space it has... This does not limit where a player can play..nor does it limit his ability to negotiate a good salary. What it does is give each team an endpoint on how much it can offer all of it's players. So if the team wants to give Joe Johnson 20 Million per year, they can. Joe would be happy and hopefully the team would be happy.

I would keep the guaranteed contracts because it limits player movement and team's ability to rid themselves of mistakes.

[Diesel]

The one way they could change the lottery is by changing the odds so the lower seeds have a better chance of receiving a top pick. This way there's less incentive to tank for the top slots and more incentive to just go for the playoffs with a chance of still getting a good pick if the team doesn't make it.

This also means that mediocre teams could be a contender in two to three years with one or two lucky draws instead of going through a five to six year rebuilding process (which is very frustrating for fans and it may not even work out).

I'm actually starting to buy into the wheel. For one reason... it makes everything transparent. Why tank when it benefits you nothing? Every team will just go out and play hard. The other thing is that Fans will make big deals about getting the top pick. Can you imagine what Atlanta would be like today if we knew that in June, we were getting the #1 pick overall?? There would be Jabari Parker posters all over the city. It would be like draft lottery night when the winner of the draft lottery pulls out a Jersey for the player that they want. For us, that would be year round. It would also increase interest in the college game. Those top three cities would be followers of the top three players. If I knew we were getting the #1 pick for certain, I would watch as much Duke and Kansas basketball as possible and I hate Duke and Kansas.

[Guest]

Response has been mixed around the league to a proposal to replace the current draft lottery with a so-called lottery wheel that would lock in every team's draft position for 30 years. While many executives view it as a creative, viable way to finally choke off tanking, league sources say the plan is likely to serve simply as a starting point for other remedies. For example, there is support among some GMs for a straight lottery with all 14 non-playoff teams getting an equal shot at the No. 1 pick. Such a plan would allow teams to strategically plan their rebuilding without going overboard and blatantly losing on purpose for better odds at a premium pick. Other execs view such proposals as little more than Internet fodder that won't pass muster with owners who want to control their investments. As one GM said, Maybe if teams had a little more integrity and actually tried to win games, we wouldn't need the fodder. That GM clearly is in the wrong business. CBSSports.comDraft, League - See more at: http://hoopshype.com/rumors.htm#sthash.wdJ9EXXC.dpuf

[ag82]

Until jabari decides to stay a 2nd year because the lakers get the #1 pick next year.

[Diesel]

Response has been mixed around the league to a proposal to replace the current draft lottery with a so-called lottery wheel that would lock in every team's draft position for 30 years. While many executives view it as a creative, viable way to finally choke off tanking, league sources say the plan is likely to serve simply as a starting point for other remedies. For example, there is support among some GMs for a straight lottery with all 14 non-playoff teams getting an equal shot at the No. 1 pick. Such a plan would allow teams to strategically plan their rebuilding without going overboard and blatantly losing on purpose for better odds at a premium pick. Other execs view such proposals as little more than Internet fodder that won't pass muster with owners who want to control their investments. As one GM said, Maybe if teams had a little more integrity and actually tried to win games, we wouldn't need the fodder. That GM clearly is in the wrong business. CBSSports.comDraft, League- See more at: http://hoopshype.com/rumors.htm#sthash.wdJ9EXXC.dpuf

yeah, that's all good reporting but when you put thought into the implications.... this is what we know is true:

1. The NBA has a transparency problem.

2. The NBA has a tanking problem.

3. The draft lottery does nothing to even the playing field.

4. Thoughts of a continuation of a lottery of any kind will still lead to an uneven playing field.

Now, when you think of a set rotation (just like a fantasy draft); you know what place you have for the next 30 yrs. You know when you will have good picks and when you will have bad picks. This plan to end lottery (if addendum is made to fix free agency and add a hard cap) will make basketball better and even the playing field.

[Diesel]

Until jabari decides to stay a 2nd year because the lakers get the #1 pick next year.

That can only happen 1 time in the next 30 yrs. Moreover, if players stay in college and develop their skills who is mad? Let me ask you.... why is Kobe in LA? Didn't he threaten to not play? How many Europlayers have threatened to go back to Europe? How many college players want to dictate where they go? The thing is that if you handle FAcy right, Jabari will go to a Laker team that is not built to win a championship anyway.

[Guest]

That can only happen 1 time in the next 30 yrs. Moreover, if players stay in college and develop their skills who is mad? Let me ask you.... why is Kobe in LA? Didn't he threaten to not play? How many Europlayers have threatened to go back to Europe? How many college players want to dictate where they go? The thing is that if you handle FAcy right, Jabari will go to a Laker team that is not built to win a championship anyway.

You are speaking specifically for one year, one team. Even if LA is not built to win it will be LA's history that is the trump card.Example year 1,2,3,4 - jazz/lakers/bucks/Knicks draft order - player 1 decides he'll wait LA/ player 3 decides he'll wait for Knicks.It's a good thing if the players stay in school but they are still sticking around to go to the marquee teams.

[Diesel]

You are speaking specifically for one year, one team. Even if LA is not built to win it will be LA's history that is the trump card.Example year 1,2,3,4 - jazz/lakers/bucks/Knicks draft order - player 1 decides he'll wait LA/ player 3 decides he'll wait for Knicks.It's a good thing if the players stay in school but they are still sticking around to go to the marquee teams.

The thing is that there are more marquee players that will be built in this wait. For instance, Parker can't be sure that he will be the #1 pick next year. What if LAL comes in with the pick and they fall madly in love with Jahill Okafor or Myles Turner because they need a dominant Center. The point is that these HS players don't have the ability to force their way to their team either. On top of that, they risk injury. Hello Ken Swilling.

[BrazilianHawk]

I would go for a draw with all 30 teams:

Non-playoff : 4.5% x 14 = 63%

1st-round losers : 3.125% x 8 = 25%

2nd-round losers: 2.0% x 4 = 8%

Conference losers 1.5% x 2 = 3%

Finalists: 0.5% x 2 = 1%

Or simply design 30 wheels and make a simple draw of which wheel to use for the next draft, AFTER draft entries are closed.

Next year you go with 29 wheels, then 28, 27, etc. You still make sure all teams have a 1st pick in a 30 year interval.

[Diesel]

I would go for a draw with all 30 teams:

Non-playoff : 4.5% x 14 = 63%

1st-round losers : 3.125% x 8 = 25%

2nd-round losers: 2.0% x 4 = 8%

Conference losers 1.5% x 2 = 3%

Finalists: 0.5% x 2 = 1%

Or simply design 30 wheels and make a simple draw of which wheel to use for the next draft, AFTER draft entries are closed.

Next year you go with 29 wheels, then 28, 27, etc. You still make sure all teams have a 1st pick in a 30 year interval.

Must there be this sense of gambling? I think Stern instituted this gambling for first to farther his agenda. He didn't want to be like Football and just have a transparent draft because then, he couldn't dictate what markets get marquee players. Just go with the one 30 yr wheel and take all the sense of gambling out of it. I think it will make GMs work better when they know what they have and what they need to do.

[AHF]

The one way they could change the lottery is by changing the odds so the lower seeds have a better chance of receiving a top pick. This way there's less incentive to tank for the top slots and more incentive to just go for the playoffs with a chance of still getting a good pick if the team doesn't make it.

This also means that mediocre teams could be a contender in two to three years with one or two lucky draws instead of going through a five to six year rebuilding process (which is very frustrating for fans and it may not even work out).

I could see something like this working to deter tanking:

Picks 1-9: 8% chance

10: 7% chance

11: 6.5% chance

12: 5.5% chance

13: 5% chance

14: 4% chance