Without a Lottery pick, what will Ferry do?

[tbhawksfan]

There are ways to get decent picks from teams; in any draft. Phx for example is said to be buying and has mutiple firsts. If Ferry is going to move quality pllayers to go young, then I want him to get the best possible picks. Trying to beat their #1-6 pick with our 12-18 pick isn't easy.

Millsap would get a very nice return and Korver maybe an early 20's or late teens.

There are quite a few teams that want to improve. BOS just made a very nice rebuilding move.

Looks like all the teams likely to finish in the last 8-10 will want to hold on to their pick because they are tanking. Once you get into the #12 or so, you can find some willing teams.

I think a deal like:

ATL / PHX / HOS where Sap goes to Hous, Asik to Phx, and Hou and one of Phx firsts coming our way with expiring. Just an example, but we would get a late first and maybe an early to mid teen at least.

If Ferry wants to go this way, I'm sure he can find the deal.

[DJlaysitup]

What would a contender give up for Sap or Korver that would help make us a contender? Maybe they'd give up a late or future first rounder, but it wouldn't be a whole lot more than that. They'd be more interested in maintaining their present and future contender status. If we traded those guys for late round picks, it would just be setting us up to be a lottery team again.

Well it depends on your outlook on the future. If, as I posted a bit back, you want to go young with "quality but coachable" players, the later part of the first round is the prime place to get them.

Lets say (behind closed doors) DF and Bud have a 4 or 5 year plan to build a solid team based on good players who are willing to play within a system. You take our (or NJNs) 1st round pick...add in another mid-late 1st from a trade for Sap...then add in another mid-late rounder for Korver...and you are building a "core" You don't take "one-and-done-ers" you take the best 2-3 year guys you can find from quality programs....and maybe a good Euro.

Then next year you got these guys and AL and Teague and DMC and whoever else we keep and that is a pretty good 1st year for a "Strategic Rebuild"..(where have I heard that before? - oh yeah - my avatar for the last year)

Edited January 17, 2014 by DJlaysitup

[DJlaysitup]

P.S. - I will admit - since it's very unlikely we can be a real contender this year and very unlikely we can get into the top 6 in the draft - selfishly, I would just like to have multiple mid to late round first round picks and have the fun of arguing about who to take .

Who knows - might just find a diamond in the rough.

The Hawks aren't "hexed" it was just that BK and Woody weren't very bright at talent evaluation. (BK worse than Woody)

Edited January 17, 2014 by DJlaysitup

[tbhawksfan]

Well it depends on your outlook on the future. If, as I posted a bit back, you want to go young with "quality but coachable" players, the later part of the first round is the prime place to get them.

Lets say (behind closed doors) DF and Bud have a 4 or 5 year plan to build a solid team based on good players who are willing to play within a system. You take our (or NJNs) 1st round pick...add in another mid-late 1st from a trade for Sap...then add in another mid-late rounder for Korver...and you are building a "core" You don't take "one-and-done-ers" you take the best 2-3 year guys you can find from quality programs....and maybe a good Euro.

Then next year you got these guys and AL and Teague and DMC and whoever else we keep and that is a pretty good 1st year for a "Strategic Rebuild"..(where have I heard that before? - oh yeah - my avatar for the last year)

Only problem is the 4-5 year thing. Is anyone really willing to invest in a team built on a bunch of young mid to late firsts? If you draft another project class, then Horford's window closes before they even develop. Not saying it's a bad plan, guess Horf would be traded next year to complete the process.

I really hope that we can build more around guys in the 6-14 range instead of late firsts.

Millsap should net better than a mid first; say his value is about #5-#8. Hard to get those picks this year, but that's where I put his value. Might have to go young guy + mid first deal with Sap. Korver maybe a late teens. Gives us 3 firsts in the 12-19 range and a young player. Still love for Ferry to get into that top 6 this year if we're rebuilding.

[Guest]

How much further up do you think a mid and late first rounder will get us? How much further up did the two mid first round picks we were offering last year get us? Also, the Lakers are a championship organization because they don't choose to build around guys like Teague.

That's why this discussion is fools gold - we have no idea what pick we will have, we don't know what team will not want their pick. Why can't a future 1st pick be added. Why not add Bebe or Shredder - the scenarios are varying.Have you seen LAL's roster? Lol. George Hill was traded for the #15 pick.( I thought SA included their #29 pick they didn't) Hill was a 26th pick.Jrue Holuday was traded for the #6 pick last year and a 2014 lottery protected pick (top 5).Based on those two examples I have no idea what we can get for what we have but I would think somewhere in the middle. Edited January 17, 2014 by JayBirdHawk

[DJlaysitup]

I really hope that we can build more around guys in the 6-14 range instead of late firsts.

Millsap should net better than a mid first; say his value is about #5-#8. Hard to get those picks this year, but that's where I put his value. Might have to go young guy + mid first deal with Sap. Korver maybe a late teens. Gives us 3 firsts in the 12-19 range and a young player. Still love for Ferry to get into that top 6 this year if we're rebuilding.

Agree 100%...but of course we can't define the market. Thing is with a guy like Sap, much as I like him on our team, he is a 10 year guy and he is valuable now. Very solid player who can make a contender even better...and he has only one year left on his contract after this one. That's about as valuable a player out there for a contender in a "win now" mode as it gets + they don't have to make a long-term commitment.

In truth, getting Sap for the contract we got him for could end up being DF's second best move in his short tenure as the Hawks' GM behind getting rid of JJ's contract. He just has to follow through and get best value for Sap. If he can do that my hat is off to him.

Edited January 17, 2014 by DJlaysitup

[Nicholasp27]

100% that only non-playoff teams can get the top 14 picksYour first quoted passage even says as much, saying "from the remaining teams, those who originally held lotto balls"

[Jody23]

My thing is if Ferry is going to flip Korver or Sap for young players and picks, then I think he should do it before the trade deadline. Replacing veterans like Korver and Sap with young undeveloped players will make us a lottery team again anyway. If your going to go there, you might as well do it now and improve your own pick for this years draft. I mean seriously, Ferry has to know that making the playoffs with this team is futile. Unless the owners really want the playoff revenue over a shot at better players.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Jody23

[NBASupes]

We need to keep Korver. He is a system player that fits through and through. Sap has too good. Not good enough but too good.

Edited January 18, 2014 by nbasupes40retired

[Vol4ever]

We need to keep Korver. He is a system player that fits through and through. Sap has too good. Not good enough but too good.

Korver is a final piece player, a shooter off the bench. I like Kyle but he is way to slow on defense and can't get his own shot.

[NBASupes]

Korver is a final piece player, a shooter off the bench. I like Kyle but he is way to slow on defense and can't get his own shot.

He's a perfect player then. I want players who help us win and fit the system but when Horf is gone, they suck and can't take the extra offensive attention which equal losses. At this point, I am fine with that. Sap on the other hand doesn't make us a good team and he's too good to make us a truly terrible team.

[DJlaysitup]

....Ferry has to know that making the playoffs with this team is futile. Unless the owners really want the playoff revenue over a shot at better players.

Hmmm...good point Jody...you never can tell about our owners. Realistically you could likely punch a small hole through a silver dollar...tie a string to it and drag it around Hawks HQ...and the ASG guys would follow you .

[tbhawksfan]

Playoff revenue is good, especially since it's shared. If the Hawks remain mostly status quo through the deadline and squeak into the playoffs, I think you'll see about 15 thou in the stands at best to suffer the Hawks getting bounced in the first round. Then you start next season knowing you have a very similar team, though with Horf back and maybe a decent rook or 2, barring a Ferry miracle, this will equal a mid seed. Not much growth there. Don't see anything to attract attendance. Sap is expiring and wants to get paid. That's not a scenario I want to invest in.If we take the reload through the draft route, there are 2 problems: no top 10 picks want to be moved. If we look to snag a nice player, doesn't look like any players that we would actually want are moving. Asik might be the best guy to move by the deadline.So; I have to think that DJlaysitup's idea to invest in mid round type picks is the only scenario that is both doable and headed in the right direction.I look to move in order Sap, Korver, Lou, JT and get as many firsts as possible. We keep Horf for now and the young guys either become keepers or can be moved as assets. 4-5 years seems about right for any realistic chance to turn this Hawks team into a championship contender. Also be nice to build it into a team that is managed to finish high in the East for the long-term. Might make it easier to snag one of those superstars on the move everyone talks about.Investing in a bunch of 10-20 first over the next 2 years should also suit the ASG. It would keep salary down and maybe they could generate a little buzz with the idea that this is the new Hawks under Ferry, Bud, new culture, Horf, a bunch of promising young firsts and flexibility.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

He's a perfect player then. I want players who help us win and fit the system but when Horf is gone, they suck and can't take the extra offensive attention which equal losses. At this point, I am fine with that. Sap on the other hand doesn't make us a good team and he's too good to make us a truly terrible team.

That means that Korver isn't nowhere near as valuable as you make him out to be. If the loss of one player will affect Kyle's game like that, how valuable is he really? It's a distinct reason why this is his 4th team in 10 years. I would flip Kyle for a young player like Tim Hardaway Jr in a heartbeat.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Playoff revenue is good, especially since it's shared. If the Hawks remain mostly status quo through the deadline and squeak into the playoffs, I think you'll see about 15 thou in the stands at best to suffer the Hawks getting bounced in the first round. Then you start next season knowing you have a very similar team, though with Horf back and maybe a decent rook or 2, barring a Ferry miracle, this will equal a mid seed. Not much growth there. Don't see anything to attract attendance. Sap is expiring and wants to get paid. That's not a scenario I want to invest in. If we take the reload through the draft route, there are 2 problems: no top 10 picks want to be moved. If we look to snag a nice player, doesn't look like any players that we would actually want are moving. Asik might be the best guy to move by the deadline. So; I have to think that DJlaysitup's idea to invest in mid round type picks is the only scenario that is both doable and headed in the right direction. I look to move in order Sap, Korver, Lou, JT and get as many firsts as possible. We keep Horf for now and the young guys either become keepers or can be moved as assets. 4-5 years seems about right for any realistic chance to turn this Hawks team into a championship contender. Also be nice to build it into a team that is managed to finish high in the East for the long-term. Might make it easier to snag one of those superstars on the move everyone talks about. Investing in a bunch of 10-20 first over the next 2 years should also suit the ASG. It would keep salary down and maybe they could generate a little buzz with the idea that this is the new Hawks under Ferry, Bud, new culture, Horf, a bunch of promising young firsts and flexibility.

It depends on who we're playing. If it's Miami, the place will be packed. Heck, we sold out the 3 home playoff games vs the Pacers last year. if we play Brooklyn, we'll sellout that series too. The killer would be a series vs a Charlotte or Washington . . . teams that don't create that buzz when they come to town. Although in the case of Charlotte, maybe 3 - 4 thousand of their fans might follow the team down to ATL, since it's only about 4 hrs away.

As for the 4 - 5 year plan to build a contender with mid round picks, that will fail miserably in most cases. Look at the good to great teams around the league. They're stacked with lottery picks. They're actually built like BK built the mid 2000s Hawks. As much flack as he gets from the fan base, he really only made one critical mistake by taking Marvin over the high quality PGs that were available. But he did deal for JJ . . and chose Josh Smith in the mid 1st round . . and tried to fire Woody in 2007, but ownership wouldn't let him.

The Pacers are an anomaly. They're a powerhouse defensive team made up of mid 1st round and even 2nd round picks. That's damn near the "Mid 2000s Detroit Model". If that's the route we want to go, we have to get rid of just about everyone on the team not named Al Horford, and hope those players not only play defense, but become very good offensive players.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

That means that Korver isn't nowhere near as valuable as you make him out to be. If the loss of one player will affect Kyle's game like that, how valuable is he really? It's a distinct reason why this is his 4th team in 10 years. I would flip Kyle for a young player like Tim Hardaway Jr in a heartbeat.

In the last 10 games Kyle is shooting 39% FG and 34% from 3 point range. No way should the loss of Horford affect his game that dramatically. People talk crap about how Teague has declined since Al got hurt, but they really better take a real good look at Korver these days.

[Guest]

In the last 10 games Kyle is shooting 39% FG and 34% from 3 point range. No way should the loss of Horford affect his game that dramatically. People talk crap about how Teague has declined since Al got hurt, but they really better take a real good look at Korver these days.

The difference is Teague is supposed to be the 'Star' and leader and up and comer on this team - we expect him to make the jump. KK not do much , he is what he is - a specialist.

[Alex]

Ferry will miss on yet two more players in the middle teens of the draft.

Next question please.

[macdaddy]

The difference is Teague is supposed to be the 'Star' and leader and up and comer on this team - we expect him to make the jump. KK not do much , he is what he is - a specialist.

I agree with this but partially its the same thing. There is just one less guy to have to guard that closely in the starting lineup. It's why three is always the magic number. When you had to keep track of Horford, Milsap, and Korver it was much harder defensively than just keeping track of Milsap and Korver. Frankly Korver is the one that should have that excuse of missing Horford not Teague.

Still if we are complaining about a guy's percentage going DOWN to 34% from three for a short period of time then we are seriously nitpicking his game. He's still at 45% for the year. 45% at home, 45% away. And even in this 'bad' stretch he rarely misses an open three.