Official Game Thread: Hawks - Wizards

[DJlaysitup]

Well the bottom line is...with Teague hurt now too...we gotta get some players from somewhere. We can't go into the next game with eight guys .

[cam1218]

Teagues conditioned well enough to withstand those added minutes. Who are you the conditioning coach?

Mack was going to play at some point, it's not like Teague was playing the rest of the game. Even when Teague came back in he didn't play well. Teague is a grown man. Bud shouldn't have to constantly worry about making sure he is always confident, it's not like he is raising a puppy.

[IheartVolt]

@IheartFerry maybe you should rewind your DVR because I wasnt the only one with that observation. It was cosigned by an ex nba player..Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

5You take things to personal man..It was a simple observation and that is all. It could be just simple rest no reading into it

[willthepureshooter]

@cam1218 Bud changed the offense and didnt allow him to attack. Lol. Coaches have to put confidence into their players all the time. Thats what makes NBA coaches and other sports coaches so special. The game is 85% mental and a bad performance by a player can weigh heavily on him.Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[willthepureshooter]

@IheartFerry I don’t take anything personally. This is a forum where we all debate about our team. All smiles here man.Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[cam1218]

@cam1218 Bud changed the offense and didnt allow him to attack. Lol. Coaches have to put confidence into their players all the time. Thats what makes NBA coaches and other sports coaches so special. The game is 85% mental and a bad performance by a player can weigh heavily on him.Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

I understand the importance of developing players confidence. Teague was tired and had to come out. I wish he could have kept playing too. He came back in and wasn't effective.Back to the confidence thing..Teague doesn't have much of it to begin with. He played well and that didn't continue when he returned. We can't baby him, he's not a rookie.I know you are a Teague fan, I'd consider myself one too. I can see why he is struggling with our current roster..but the guy has to stop being so mentally fragile. He has a great opportunity to become a leader with all three injuries and all that has come out of it is trade rumors.

[ATLSmith]

Desperate need of a Super Star to fill in some seats.

This is what we can expect if the Hawks go into tank mode. Don't do it to the fans. Just don't do it.

[AHF]

This is what we can expect if the Hawks go into tank mode. Don't do it to the fans. Just don't do it.

That is what we do see today. I don't love tank mode at this point because we have already taken away any high probability high upside by waiting this long, but let's not pretend that was a picture from the last time we tanked.

[Admin]

That is what we do see today. I don't love tank mode at this point because we have already taken away any high probability high upside by waiting this long, but let's not pretend that was a picture from the last time we tanked.

Every loss improves draft position probability and the probability of landing a more talented player. So it's never too late.

[AHF]

Every loss improves draft position probability and the probability of landing a more talented player. So it's never too late.

It isn't too late to improve draft position. It is too late to have a realistic shot at the franchise players expected to litter the top of this draft.

[Admin]

It isn't too late to improve draft position. It is too late to have a realistic shot at the franchise players expected to litter the top of this draft.

Realistic perhaps but it's still a lottery and the more balls we have in it the better odds we have. We were supposed to pick what 10 or 11 when we "won" in the lottery with Al? Anything can happen!

[AHF]

Realistic perhaps but it's still a lottery and the more balls we have in it the better odds we have. We were supposed to pick what 10 or 11 when we "won" in the lottery with Al? Anything can happen!

We were the #4 team at that time and therefore our most likely scenario was the #5 pick.

The highest teams to make the jump into the top 3 in recent years have been:

2013 - #7 WAS

2012 - #3 NO

2011 - #8 LAC (conveyed to CLE)

2010 - #6 PHI

2009 - #5 Memphis

I'm not saying I won't cross my fingers if we bottom out into the #13 or #14 spot, but I won't have much hope.

[Admin]

We were the #4 team at that time and therefore our most likely scenario was the #5 pick.

The highest teams to make the jump into the top 3 in recent years have been:

2013 - #7 WAS

2012 - #3 NO

2011 - #8 LAC (conveyed to CLE)

2010 - #6 PHI

2009 - #5 Memphis

I'm not saying I won't cross my fingers if we bottom out into the #13 or #14 spot, but I won't have much hope.

Thanks for the correction I thought we were lower than that. You don't give us much hope of being higher than #13 or #14? As of right now we have the 14th worst record and we're sinking like a rock. We only have 4 more wins than the 8th worst team and 7 more than the 4th worst team.

[AHF]

Thanks for the correction I thought we were lower than that. You don't give us much hope of being higher than #13 or #14? As of right now we have the 14th worst record and we're sinking like a rock. We only have 4 more wins than the 8th worst team and 7 more than the 4th worst team.

Yes and no. I still think we make the playoffs but if we do go into the lottery then we have a good shot at the #11 pick.

Our odds of missing the playoffs aren't very good to me. We have to finish with a worse record than two of the three of Bobcats, Pistons and Cavs to even make the lottery:

Atlanta 25-28

Charlotte 25-30

Detroit 22-32

Cleveland 22-33

Since I don't think we'll actively tank, I think a .41% winning % is probably best case for us. That would leave us with:

Atlanta 29 games to play: 12-17 == 37-45

If you round up (i.e., assume teams will remain at their current pace and pick up a game here or there)

Charlotte at current pace: 25-30 ==> 12-15 = 37-45

Detroit at current pace: 22-32 ==> 12-16 = 34-48

Cleveland at current pace: 22-33 ==> 11-16 = 33-49

So if the teams don't actually try to tank and just continue current pace we will make the playoffs even winning only 41% of our remaining games. Under this scenario we need to win only 8 of our remaining 29 games, a winning % of 27.5%. I don't see that as likely.

If that plays out and we finish with 33 wins, then we will likely be the #9 team in the East (because you know one of these teams is going to run into trouble or try to tank themselves).

Assuming the West stays at its current rates, that would probably put us at the #11 position (14 - Memphis; 13 - Minnesota; 12 - Denver) but our record is currently better than Denver so it is not outside the realm of possibility they decide to tank as well and do so with an edge on us from the starting line.

[Guest]

Charlotte, Cleveland and Detroit ALL want to make the playoffs.

[Admin]

Yes and no. I still think we make the playoffs but if we do go into the lottery then we have a good shot at the #11 pick.

Our odds of missing the playoffs aren't very good to me. We have to finish with a worse record than two of the three of Bobcats, Pistons and Cavs to even make the lottery:

Atlanta 25-28

Charlotte 25-30

Detroit 22-32

Cleveland 22-33

Since I don't think we'll actively tank, I think a .41% winning % is probably best case for us. That would leave us with:

Atlanta 29 games to play: 12-17 == 37-45

If you round up (i.e., assume teams will remain at their current pace and pick up a game here or there)

Charlotte at current pace: 25-30 ==> 12-15 = 37-45

Detroit at current pace: 22-32 ==> 12-16 = 34-48

Cleveland at current pace: 22-33 ==> 11-16 = 33-49

So if the teams don't actually try to tank and just continue current pace we will make the playoffs even winning only 41% of our remaining games. Under this scenario we need to win only 8 of our remaining 29 games, a winning % of 27.5%. I don't see that as likely.

If that plays out and we finish with 33 wins, then we will likely be the #9 team in the East (because you know one of these teams is going to run into trouble or try to tank themselves).

Assuming the West stays at its current rates, that would probably put us at the #11 position (14 - Memphis; 13 - Minnesota; 12 - Denver) but our record is currently better than Denver so it is not outside the realm of possibility they decide to tank as well and do so with an edge on us from the starting line.

Good post. Where are you coming up with thinking we end up 12-17 to finish the year? We certainly don't look like a team capable of that will all of our injuries. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't win more than 7 or 8 games the rest of the way unless something changes. We're simply relying too much on a depleted roster, an aging Brand, and possibly not seeing any improvements to the roster outside of DMC coming back somewhat soon.

Charlotte, Cleveland and Detroit ALL want to make the playoffs.

If Detroit are able to move Josh then they just might! Cleveland got a lot better today with Hawes and Charlotte are certainly trying their hardest.

[AHF]

Charlotte, Cleveland and Detroit ALL want to make the playoffs.

You could have said that about us a week ago. A team like Cleveland is showing that winning is not necessarily the top priority by shopping Deng. If they decide this season is over, then they could check out very quickly and they have 5 more losses than us already.

Part of my assumption here is that the Hawks will continue to try to win and I just think this team is significantly better than a 30% win team for the rest of the year. I think that a 41% win rate is much more likely than a twenty-something percent rate.

Edited February 20, 2014 by AHF

[Guest]

You could have said that about us a week ago. A team like Cleveland is showing that winning is not necessarily the top priority by shopping Deng. If they decide this season is over, then they could check out very quickly and they have 5 more losses than us already. Part of my assumption here is that the Hawks will continue to try to win and I just think this team is significantly better than a 30% win team for the rest of the year. I think that a 41% win rate is much more likely than a twenty-something percent rate.

The cumulative effect of all our injuries is more the cause of our slide than us not trying to make the playoffs.Cleveland gave up a boatload for Deng and he looks poised to leave them for nothing in the offseason. Shopping Deng is more about getting something for him that not trying to make the playoffs. Ariza would be a good fill in. They just traded for Hawes so that's an indication that they still want to win.

[AHF]

I will not be remotely surprised if one of those teams packs it in for a lottery pick down the stretch. We knew before this season we weren't winning anything significant in the post-season but opted for playoff basketball over non-playoff basketball and if we can just play with pride the rest of the way we will scrap enough together to make it in, IMO.

But I would have through the Braves were going to make the playoffs two years ago so take that with a grain of salt.