Could Millsap Play SF in Atlanta?

[JTB]

That lineup is good, but not a title contender.

I could easily say that about the pacers lineup

[AHF]

If you think either is going to get more than $8 mil/yr under this current CBA and cap than you're delusional. Stephenson will likely get the same contract as Teague and Hawes will likely get Gortat money, around $7 mil. Neither will get $10 mil/yr let alone max contracts. The Pacers have said that they will not go into luxury tax to keep Stephenson and bringing in Turner likely spells that Indy will not match any offer for Stephenson and he is done in Indy as of July 1st.

Turner has been an unmitigated disaster in Indy. Don't think Bird will be dumb enough to hitch his wagon to that horse.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Without the injuries, Hawks would sit 3rd in the East. Real bad shape.....

No we wouldn't. The Hawks had played a bottom 5 schedule in the NBA, and was only 3 games above .500 at the time of Horford's injury. The schedule was going to get significantly tougher in January, February and even through March, with it easing up some going into April. No way would the Hawks be at the 40 win mark right now. We'd be fighting Brooklyn for 5th place, with a decent shot to win 43 games.

[nathan2331]

No we wouldn't. The Hawks had played a bottom 5 schedule in the NBA, and was only 3 games above .500 at the time of Horford's injury. The schedule was going to get significantly tougher in January, February and even through March, with it easing up some going into April. No way would the Hawks be at the 40 win mark right now. We'd be fighting Brooklyn for 5th place, with a decent shot to win 43 games.

You really don't think we couldn't have won 9 more games with Horford?

[mtnbayou]

I still like (love) a Horford/Millsap combo. We just need a solid 3rd big - preferably BIG - defender type

Keep Carroll, Korver and Menace

Hopefully Horford can stay healthy :(

If we had a DeRozan type we`d be sick, with Menace tossing dimes to everybody

[MaceCase]

Uhm yeah. I'm not saying that just because Sap looked good against LeBron that means he'll be great a SF and I AM making a team that gives Al and Sap advantages. Both Al and Sap are undersized for their current positions and, although they are both All-Stars at those positions, they would both benefit having guys more their size guarding them and having to guard. Both get beat up constantly in Atlanta due not having a big body out on the floor with them to keep the Hibbert's and Gasol's from doubling them or towering over them or crowding the lane. What we have is a 3pt-shooting Pero and a 6'8" Brand, neither keep the 7-footers from turning Sap's post game into a joke. Most of his shots around the hoop for Sap are acrobatic layups trying to avoid the prototype centers/PF's from blocking his shot and results with him ending on his keister. But put a Brewer, Deng, or the average 6'8", 230 lbs SF on Sap and watch the post game improve. Watch everything improve. Horford draws out the PF, Hawes or whoever mans the center, and Sap has his way with opposing SF's. Sap is stronger and bigger than 95% of SF's in the league. It'll be similar to Horford trying to defend Dwight. The prototypical SF may be quicker, but Sap has good lateral quickness and fights through screens well. Am I thinking that Sap will shut down opposing SF's? No, of course not, but do I believe that he can hang with them and contain an opposing SF to his averages and be successful on offense vs. said SF's? Hell yeah.

And I am not against flipping Sap for an actual SF, but I also support trying Sap at 3 before we do.

I am NOT making the same mistake as Dumars. Dumars has constructed a team by having two starters playing outside of their strengths and not making adjustments to make it work. He has placed Smith at SF, a position that requires a player to be well-rounded in all aspects of the game. Josh is elite defensively, but can't shoot or dribble and refuses to run set plays. For Monroe to work at 4, they need a guy that can shoot the ball and drive the lane playing SF. During the period that Mo Cheeks benched Josh in favor for Kyle Singler and Rodney Stuckey starting at 2, the Drummond/Monroe tandem worked very well. I thought that the worse thing Dumars ever did was trade Billups for Iverson, but now I believe it was signing Josh for SF and that will be the nail in the coffin for him. You replace Smoove with Deng and the whole thing works. Is Monroe probably better suited for the center position? Yes, because he isn't the midrange shooter that Horford, LMA, Pau, or Love is and with Drummond starting, it has crowded him out of his home. Is Monroe at 4 a disaster? Not with strong shooters around him.

The team I am constructing plays guys in positions that they would excel at. Sap is the most well-rounded player on the team and can shoot. Horford has his midrange shot and with smaller guys guarding him, he could become more effective in the post too. I'm not asking a poor shooting PF to play SF or an undersized Horford to defend Dwight here. I'd rather Horford matched up to LMA as opposed to Lopez. And yes, I do believe Al becoming a better player is him playing the position he is tailored for and really don't understand why that is so surprising. It's common sense. Rodney Stuckey at PG, he struggled. Rodney Stuckey now playing 2 guard, big improvement. Carmelo & LeBron are much better at SF as opposed to them being played at PF. Bosh is better at PF than C. Pau is better at C than PF w/ Dwight. Dirk is more effective at PF than C. The list goes on.

If you think either is going to get more than $8 mil/yr under this current CBA and cap than you're delusional. Stephenson will likely get the same contract as Teague and Hawes will likely get Gortat money, around $7 mil. Neither will get $10 mil/yr let alone max contracts. The Pacers have said that they will not go into luxury tax to keep Stephenson and bringing in Turner likely spells that Indy will not match any offer for Stephenson and he is done in Indy as of July 1st.

The biggest issue that I have with your wishy washy reasoning is that you ignore facts in certain instances and then invent things in others. Horford has had an extensive amount of run at PF over multiple seasons and you know what it has proven over and over again? That he is WORSE offensively at PF than he is at C. Through the Pacer, Magic, and Bulls series and regular seasons where he has logged more than ~15% of the team's total minutes http://www.82games.com/0809/08ATL12.HTM#bypos http://www.82games.com/1011/10ATL13.HTM#bypos http://www.82games.com/1213/12ATL15.HTM#bypos we have seen that although he for the most part performs better defensively his dip in offensive production results in little to no net gain by him switching positions.

Al is not bigger than other PFs and he does not have a post game to exploit them. His entire ability to score is moving off ball against slower players and being able to hit a midrange set shot against players that don't want to defend out there. It is not a shock that when faced with more mobile players that defend out to the perimeter that Al has continually done worse offensively. You speak of Sap's and Al's shooting ability being an advantage but then you wish to put them at positions where it isn't. Their jumpers are a weapon specifically because most F/Cs are uncomfortable or incapable of abandoning the paint to defend the perimeter. This is precisely why there is a proliferation of small ball lineups in the NBA and a premium placed on stretch 4s that can tax a defense.

For players that actually possess the skill and ability to consistently score 20ppg positions don't matter to their offensive ability, if you can drop 20 at one position then you can drop 20 at any other position. Positions in the NBA are more determined by who you can defend and we've seen through the majority of 7 years that Al can defend the C position. Dirk doesn't play C because he's bad enough of a defender at PF to now put him at a position that is required to anchor a defense. Pau struggles at PF because he can't cover smaller and quicker players on the perimeter. Carmelo has had two of his best seasons playing exclusively at PF for Woody and Lebron won both a MVP, championship and is still currently the starting PF for the Heat. I have no idea where one would get the notion that these guys are worse as PFs. Defensively both get away with it because Heat play an overload zone and Woody has his switching zone but regardless whatever dip they take defensively is more than made up in their boost of opposing 4s being completely unable to defend them. Just watch Indiana, David West is not a chump by any means on defense yet he's hidden against Shumpert and Battier. Then there's no difference between Bosh as a C or PF, his dip in production is due entirely to the fact he's no longer a focal point as he was in Toronto.

Stuckey has struggled at PG because they were asking him to become a facilitator in addition to being a scorer. When they figured that he couldn't run an offense they moved him off the ball to SG and guess what? He struggled just as bad because he couldn't shoot the ball and was therefore useless. What did they finally do? Took him out the starting lineup entirely so that he can be a bench combo scorer. He has started 1 game all year. This is the exact issue that Cleveland has had with Dion Waiters and New Orleans/Sacramento with Tyreke Evans. It's not a matter of what positions they play but rather their skillsets and how they mesh within the total team landscape. Monroe's struggles at PF over C has nothing to do with having a shooter at the 3, it is solely based on Andre Drummond's lack of offensive skill. Monroe is a low-post player who now has his area occupied by another low-post player. Monroe looks absolutely fine when he has everyone from Josh to Maxiell playing next to him though despite the fact those guys aren't great shooters, why? Because they can initiate from the high-post to accentuate his game and draw defenses out. Blake Griffin perfectly coexists with Deandre Jordan because he can operate out of the high post and low, Monroe can't and it is far easier to find a high post PF than there is a high post C. You are still, of course, omitting why exactly he's been worse on defense at PF than C http://www.82games.com/1314/13DET14.HTM#bypos but I'm sure that all has to do with "culture".

Perhaps your lists should go on and on until you actually hit on an example that supports your position, you are shooting blanks so far.

And finally in regards to Lance........You just saw Jeff Teague......a restricted free agent and mediocre PG in a league that sports an overabundance of productive players at his position receive a salary that pays him 8 mil per year yet it's your belief that Lance Stephenson, an unrestricted SG in a league that has a dearth of them is going to receive the same deal.....

I mean the new CBA sure did a great job in restricting Tyreke Evans who averaged 15, 4 and 4 from making 12 mil a year. Based on one tweet from December I can definitely see how a player averaging 14, 7 and 5 will only get 7 mil a year.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

The biggest issue that I have with your wishy washy reasoning is that you ignore facts in certain instances and then invent things in others. Horford has had an extensive amount of run at PF over multiple seasons and you know what it has proven over and over again? That he is WORSE offensively at PF than he is at C. Through the Pacer, Magic, and Bulls series and regular seasons where he has logged more than ~15% of the team's total minutes http://www.82games.com/0809/08ATL12.HTM#bypos http://www.82games.com/1011/10ATL13.HTM#bypos http://www.82games.com/1213/12ATL15.HTM#bypos we have seen that although he for the most part performs better defensively his dip in offensive production results in little to no net gain by him switching positions.

Al is not bigger than other PFs and he does not have a post game to exploit them. His entire ability to score is moving off ball against slower players and being able to hit a midrange set shot against players that don't want to defend out there. It is not a shock that when faced with more mobile players that defend out to the perimeter that Al has continually done worse offensively. You speak of Sap's and Al's shooting ability being an advantage but then you wish to put them at positions where it isn't. Their jumpers are a weapon specifically because most F/Cs are uncomfortable or incapable of abandoning the paint to defend the perimeter. This is precisely why there is a proliferation of small ball lineups in the NBA and a premium placed on stretch 4s that can tax a defense.

What have I ignored and what have I invented? And by WORSE offensively at PF... He isn't much worse. The fact you are ignoring here is that although in those stat sheets from 82games show that though his production offensively took a slight step back, he was still posting around 20 ppg and a PER rating around 20. Also, the centers for those series were Dwight, Hibbert, and Noah, three guys that dominate Horf. Hell, the first pectoral injury was against Hibbert. So what 82games is showing us is that Horf may take a slight step back offensively, but defensively he improves all the while defending someone that isn't going to abuse him AND putting him in a position where he is happy to play. Have you seen the production Horford has given us over the last 4 months? Wait... he hasn't played. We keep Horf at 5 and he will leave us in 2 years. It may not be the LMA numbers we'd all hope for, but if 1 ppg and a slightly lower PER rating is the penalty the Hawks have to pay to keep Horf healthy and happy for 82 games and improve him defensively, then sign me up. I would much rather have 6'10" Horford at PF than 6'8" Sap.

Also, why is playing PF an advantage for Sap, but a disadvantage for Horford? Is Sap really that much more suited for PF?

For players that actually possess the skill and ability to consistently score 20ppg positions don't matter to their offensive ability, if you can drop 20 at one position then you can drop 20 at any other position. Positions in the NBA are more determined by who you can defend and we've seen through the majority of 7 years that Al can defend the C position. Dirk doesn't play C because he's bad enough of a defender at PF to now put him at a position that is required to anchor a defense. Pau struggles at PF because he can't cover smaller and quicker players on the perimeter. Carmelo has had two of his best seasons playing exclusively at PF for Woody and Lebron won both a MVP, championship and is still currently the starting PF for the Heat. I have no idea where one would get the notion that these guys are worse as PFs. Defensively both get away with it because Heat play an overload zone and Woody has his switching zone but regardless whatever dip they take defensively is more than made up in their boost of opposing 4s being completely unable to defend them. Just watch Indiana, David West is not a chump by any means on defense yet he's hidden against Shumpert and Battier. Then there's no difference between Bosh as a C or PF, his dip in production is due entirely to the fact he's no longer a focal point as he was in Toronto.

You speak of positioning being more determinate of who you can defend, but in the above argument with the use of 82games, you showed that Horford is better defending the 4 position. Basically you have shown that my lineup would work. As for Sap, I'm not asking him to be a GOAT defender. Just contain a guy to his averages. In my hypothetical, we would have DMC and Stephenson to help defensively. And I believe the guys I listed is a good list of guys that have played out of position. LBJ and Melo being the exceptions and the reason they succeed is the exact reasoning you gave; they are quicker and handle the ball better than any other true PF in the league. But for the rest of the examples, it shows that when Dirk isn't required to defend (like you said), and Pau is on slower guys (like you said), and when Horford is on smaller guys (like I'm saying), they improve. No Hawks fan ever wants to see Horford defending Dwight, Hibbert, or other 7'0", 260 lbs-ers again.

Stuckey has struggled at PG because they were asking him to become a facilitator in addition to being a scorer. When they figured that he couldn't run an offense they moved him off the ball to SG and guess what? He struggled just as bad because he couldn't shoot the ball and was therefore useless. What did they finally do? Took him out the starting lineup entirely so that he can be a bench combo scorer. He has started 1 game all year. This is the exact issue that Cleveland has had with Dion Waiters and New Orleans/Sacramento with Tyreke Evans. It's not a matter of what positions they play but rather their skillsets and how they mesh within the total team landscape. Monroe's struggles at PF over C has nothing to do with having a shooter at the 3, it is solely based on Andre Drummond's lack of offensive skill. Monroe is a low-post player who now has his area occupied by another low-post player. Monroe looks absolutely fine when he has everyone from Josh to Maxiell playing next to him though despite the fact those guys aren't great shooters, why? Because they can initiate from the high-post to accentuate his game and draw defenses out. Blake Griffin perfectly coexists with Deandre Jordan because he can operate out of the high post and low, Monroe can't and it is far easier to find a high post PF than there is a high post C. You are still, of course, omitting why exactly he's been worse on defense at PF than C http://www.82games.com/1314/13DET14.HTM#bypos but I'm sure that all has to do with "culture".

Perhaps your lists should go on and on until you actually hit on an example that supports your position, you are shooting blanks so far.

I acknowledged that the problem with Monroe is that he doesn't have the Horford or Love shooting ability and Drummond now occupies his domain. Defensively, Monroe goes up against quicker guys now and he doesn't get help-side defense from his saloon-door back court. Defense is a collaborative effort.

The 2004 Piston team that was known for their stifling defense was made up of guys that weren't known for defense individually before joining the Pistons. Carisle and Brown were the ones to put the dog in their DNA and made them want to play defense. The head coaches were just as responsible for those infamous "under-70" games. All 15 guys bought into what the coaching staff was preaching and that's a big reason why they made 6 consecutive ECF's. Then Dumars traded for Allen "we talking about practice?!?" Iverson and the whole team turned to shambles. On nights when Demarre doesn't play for the Hawks, our defense falls apart. Defense is more about will and wanting to play D and coaching.

And finally in regards to Lance........You just saw Jeff Teague......a restricted free agent and mediocre PG in a league that sports an overabundance of productive players at his position receive a salary that pays him 8 mil per year yet it's your belief that Lance Stephenson, an unrestricted SG in a league that has a dearth of them is going to receive the same deal.....

I mean the new CBA sure did a great job in restricting Tyreke Evans who averaged 15, 4 and 4 from making 12 mil a year. Based on one tweet from December I can definitely see how a player averaging 14, 7 and 5 will only get 7 mil a year.

And who offered Teague that offer sheet again? Larry Drew and the Bucks? You don't think that Drew had some say in that $8 mil/yr offer sheet? Drew did Teague a solid with that offer sheet and backed the Hawks into a corner with it. I'd put Jeffy's value more a $6 mil. And yes, Stephenson will not get more than $7-9 mil/year. I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong.

As for Evans, it's the same organization that gave Eric Gordon $14+ mil/yr and it's the only organization that even offered Evans $12 mil/yr. Most offers he received from other teams were below $9 mil. As with the Pistons giving Osh $14 mil, you can't control what dumb organizations do. Do you think that the Pacers will go through with adding another $10+ mil contract on the books? They already have West, George, and Hibbert on the books for $42.6 mil for next season, not to mention George Hill at $8 mil, but what's another $10 mil on the books, right? Teams will not overpay for Stephenson. He is a great player and an interesting prospect, but this isn't the same as the Harden situation. Stephenson isn't a guy you build around, but more of a piece to the puzzle. Smart teams will not overpay for him and all of the dumb teams don't have the space. Hawes at $7 mil and Stephenson at $8.5 mil which likely means that Turner gets released and Indy keeps Stephenson now that I think about it...

Edited March 31, 2014 by PSSSHHHRRR87

[MaceCase]

What have I ignored and what have I invented? And by WORSE offensively at PF... He isn't much worse. The fact you are ignoring here is that although in those stat sheets from 82games show that though his production offensively took a slight step back, he was still posting around 20 ppg and a PER rating around 20. Also, the centers for those series were Dwight, Hibbert, and Noah, three guys that dominate Horf. Hell, the first pectoral injury was against Hibbert. So what 82games is showing us is that Horf may take a slight step back offensively, but defensively he improves all the while defending someone that isn't going to abuse him AND putting him in a position where he is happy to play. Have you seen the production Horford has given us over the last 4 months? Wait... he hasn't played. We keep Horf at 5 and he will leave us in 2 years. It may not be the LMA numbers we'd all hope for, but if 1 ppg and a slightly lower PER rating is the penalty the Hawks have to pay to keep Horf healthy and happy for 82 games and improve him defensively, then sign me up. I would much rather have 6'10" Horford at PF than 6'8" Sap.

Also, why is playing PF an advantage for Sap, but a disadvantage for Horford? Is Sap really that much more suited for PF?

What have you invented? You boldly claimed Al would average "LMA type numbers" from a move to PF now you are hanging your hat on 20points per 48. For reference LMA is at 30 points per 48. You made the claim that he was better, I proved to you he was worse even if it is to a small degree, you were wrong.

Al played almost the entire Orlando series save 5 minutes at PF, he was matched up against Brandon Bass not Dwight yet averaged 12 points on 40% fgs. In the Chicago and Indiana series LD went big over each of the last 3 games of those respective series yet Al did not receive this mythical LMA boost you spoke of.

If you wish to frame the argument that Al's physical health may improve from switching positions then so be it, don't invent arguments that he will have a Herculean jump in production and frame it as "common sense". Now of course what is best for Al isn't necessarily what is best for the team, the fact that moving him to PF does not provide a net gain for the team does not give us reason to slide another player to a different position. You're worried about keeping Al happy, what about asking a 30 year old Millsap to play a position he's never played consistently before in the midst of a contract year? You're worried about losing Al in 2 years but what about Sap in just 1 as common sense would dictate that an older big forward's future isn't playing a position where he must chase around smaller and more athletic players. Pero can shoot too yet for some reason logic never dictates to play him at SF.

You speak of positioning being more determinate of who you can defend, but in the above argument with the use of 82games, you showed that Horford is better defending the 4 position. Basically you have shown that my lineup would work. As for Sap, I'm not asking him to be a GOAT defender. Just contain a guy to his averages. In my hypothetical, we would have DMC and Stephenson to help defensively. And I believe the guys I listed is a good list of guys that have played out of position. LBJ and Melo being the exceptions and the reason they succeed is the exact reasoning you gave; they are quicker and handle the ball better than any other true PF in the league. But for the rest of the examples, it shows that when Dirk isn't required to defend (like you said), and Pau is on slower guys (like you said), and when Horford is on smaller guys (like I'm saying), they improve. No Hawks fan ever wants to see Horford defending Dwight, Hibbert, or other 7'0", 260 lbs-ers again.

I acknowledged that the problem with Monroe is that he doesn't have the Horford or Love shooting ability and Drummond now occupies his domain. Defensively, Monroe goes up against quicker guys now and he doesn't get help-side defense from his saloon-door back court. Defense is a collaborative effort.

The 2004 Piston team that was known for their stifling defense was made up of guys that weren't known for defense individually before joining the Pistons. Carisle and Brown were the ones to put the dog in their DNA and made them want to play defense. The head coaches were just as responsible for those infamous "under-70" games. All 15 guys bought into what the coaching staff was preaching and that's a big reason why they made 6 consecutive ECF's. Then Dumars traded for Allen "we talking about practice?!?" Iverson and the whole team turned to shambles. On nights when Demarre doesn't play for the Hawks, our defense falls apart. Defense is more about will and wanting to play D and coaching.

Here's the thing.......Al can defend centers too thus why he's played his career at center and the Hawks have been very successful because of it not in spit of it. No, your examples still suck because they do not apply to the point you are making. Gasol at PF was a full 9 points worse in PER meaning his individual performance is adversely affected, Dirk in a very limited sample is monumentally better offensively at C but it has an overall adverse effect on the Mav's defense and rebounding.......This isn't the case for Al. You have yet to make the case for how it improves his overall production individually and the overall team production, no Hawk fan wants to see Al struggle to back down Taj Gibson either.

Again, Monroe doesn't seem to need as much of a collaborative effort defending at C so perhaps we can stop blaming everyone else and just say that he's not physically equipped to defend or score on PFs as easily.

Oh wait, I'm to believe that both Wallaces, Tayshaun Prince, Rip and Chauncey were incapable of playing defense before they got to Detroit? They were entirely devoid of defensive talent and owe all of their ability to coaching? Wow, okay. I guess we can revise history too while we also invent things.

And who offered Teague that offer sheet again? Larry Drew and the Bucks? You don't think that Drew had some say in that $8 mil/yr offer sheet? Drew did Teague a solid with that offer sheet and backed the Hawks into a corner with it. I'd put Jeffy's value more a $6 mil. And yes, Stephenson will not get more than $7-9 mil/year. I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong.

As for Evans, it's the same organization that gave Eric Gordon $14+ mil/yr and it's the only organization that even offered Evans $12 mil/yr. Most offers he received from other teams were below $9 mil. As with the Pistons giving Osh $14 mil, you can't control what dumb organizations do. Do you think that the Pacers will go through with adding another $10+ mil contract on the books? They already have West, George, and Hibbert on the books for $42.6 mil for next season, not to mention George Hill at $8 mil, but what's another $10 mil on the books, right? Teams will not overpay for Stephenson. He is a great player and an interesting prospect, but this isn't the same as the Harden situation. Stephenson isn't a guy you build around, but more of a piece to the puzzle. Smart teams will not overpay for him and all of the dumb teams don't have the space. Hawes at $7 mil and Stephenson at $8.5 mil which likely means that Turner gets released and Indy keeps Stephenson now that I think about it...

Wait, wait, wait. Let me get this logic. Milwaukee offered Jeff 8 mil just because their new coach needed to do a guy a "solid". The Hawks then proceeded to match said deal. Eric Gordon was signed to a max contract by Phoenix, New Orleans promptly matched, they later signed Evans and then there is Detroit. That is already 5 "dumb" teams right there for offering and matching said deals. May not be willing or capable to offer him his money but as you can see, there's an overabundance of "dumb" teams in the league.

Here are more dumb teams just making dumb decisions. We clearly can't assess a market value based on previous trends but instead just pull an arbitrary figure out of our ass and use a poor understanding of the CBA as a reasoning for why we think we are right.