Merged: Lance Stephenson Mega Thread

[GameTime]

There’s more than enough credit to go around for the rise of the Indiana Pacers, who went from the mediocrity treadmill to title contention in four years. Two months into the season, Paul George is in the MVP discussion and Roy Hibbert is the front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year. Just as important has been the development of Lance Stephenson, who leads their starting five in field goal percentage (48 percent) and assists (5.0).

At 6’5, 230 with a 6’10 wingspan, Stephenson is one of the most difficult covers at the shooting guard position in the NBA. In a league moving from power to speed, there are very few guards with the physical strength to bother him. He has broad shoulders, long arms and a powerful frame -- a basketball player with the body of an outside linebacker. That’s how a guard without an elite vertical can have an effective field goal percentage of 66 percent in the paint.

Coming out of college, no one questioned Stephenson’s physical ability. The concerns were about his maturity and approach to the game, which is why he fell to the 40th overall pick in 2010. In his one season at Cincinnati, he dominated the ball on average team, with meager shooting percentages of 44 percent from the field and 22 percent from three. A 19-year-old rookie with an non-guaranteed contract, there was no guarantee he would stick at the next level.

His play this season is the culmination of a four-year process. Before Stephenson even played an NBA game, he was arrested for allegedly pushing his girlfriend down a flight of stairs. While the charges were eventually dismissed, the Pacers might have released him if it happened a few years before, when they were still operating in the shadow of the “Malice in the Palace”. By the end of his rookie season, they benched him due to maturity issues.

In his second season, Stephenson made headlines for the wrong reasons again, when he made a choking gesture at LeBron James in the final moments of a playoff game. Were it not for older people in the organization like Larry Bird taking him under their wing, he could have ended up another cautionary tale, an AAU star given too much too fast. Soon after he was drafted, Bird called Stephenson the most talented player on their roster.

On the court, an inconsistent jumper was the main thing holding him back. In his first two NBA seasons, Stephenson went 4-for-35 from beyond the arc. Since he spent so much time playing off the ball in Indiana, a broken jumper put a ceiling on his game. He made a huge jump before his third season, shooting 33 percent from three in 2.4 attempts a game. This season, he’s become a legitimate threat from deep, shooting 36 percent on 2.9 attempts a game.

As a result, Stephenson is a complete player without any holes in his game. He could always beat his man off the dribble and get to the rim; being able to punish defenders when they play off him has made him nearly indefensible 1-on-1. If teams send help, Stephenson has the passing ability and vision to find the open man. He impacts every dimension of the game -- he cleans the boards (6.6 rebounds) and defends all three perimeter positions.

Just as important, from the Pacers perspective, is his ability to fit into a role. They are built to play inside-out; their guards have to control tempo and dump the ball inside to Hibbert and David West. When the starters are in the game, there isn’t too much room for Stephenson to freelance, especially in the half-court. Maybe the most remarkable part of his transformation is how under control he plays -- he has a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio this season.

Because Stephenson spends so much time playing with George, Hibbert and West, his improvement is hard to see in his per-game statistics. He has a usage rating of 18.5 usage, only fifth highest on the Pacers. Every once in awhile, though, he will put together an all-around game that will make you shake your head -- 23/7/6 against the Detroit Pistons, 10/11/10 against the Boston Celtics, 13/11/12 against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Stephenson doesn’t get to showcase his game until the second unit comes in. He’s essentially the backup point guard behind George Hill, running the offense and getting the reserves involved in the game. While CJ Watson and Luis Scola have improved their bench, the biggest difference has been Stephenson’s bigger role. He plays 35 minutes a game; he’s a role-playing starter and a 6th man in one. It’s what James Harden should have been doing in Oklahoma City.

That’s not the only similarity between Stephenson and Harden. Indiana is moving towards the same crossroads Oklahoma City faced in 2012. After re-signing George and West, the Pacers already have $65 million committed for 14-15. And that’s with Danny Granger’s $14 million salary coming off the books. The Thunder traded Harden rather than pay the luxury tax. For a small-market franchise, there’s no easy answer.

This summer, Stephenson will be worth more to a franchise without established stars, one who can make him the primary option on the first team. That may sound crazy for a guy who averages only 13 points, but there’s only so much he can do taking 11 field goals a game. Harden had 10 field goal attempts a game in 2012; Eric Bledsoe was at 7.5 last season. Was either “ready” for a bigger role on a new team? Only one way to find out.

When you evaluate under-25 players, skill-set is more important than statistics. And when you look at Stephenson’s game in total, it’s scary how good he could be. Still only 23, he’s already a better shooter than Dwyane Wade, a better defender than Harden and a better passer than George. If he could dominate the ball in an uptempo system that spread the floor and let him play in space, like Bledsoe does in Phoenix, he might put up serious numbers.

Since Stephenson wasn’t a first-round pick, he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. In comparison to a guy in his 30’s, there’s very little downside to signing a 23-year old UFA. Younger guys become more mature; older guys just get worse and more injury-prone. If I were the Pacers, I would do whatever I had to do to keep him, George and Hibbert together for the next decade. Lance Stephenson may not have been “Born Ready”, but he’s ready now.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/231201/Keeping-Lance-Stephenson-Will-Be-Expensive-Problem-For-Pacers

Link to the article I was reading. We have always said that their is only one way to get a superstar but is that true? The Suns have a potential one in Bledsoe and Rockets have one in Harden. Both of these players had potential to play a larger role on a team, but never was given the opportunity with their former teams. I believe our spacing will open up Stephenson's game to a new level. The only problem is potentially overpaying (Scrub teams like Philly, etc may give him the max). Would you take that risk and overpay for Born Ready's potential? He was already a borderline all-star with a limited role in Indiana this year.

I am starting to warm up to it.

[ATLHawks3]

He isn't as gifted a shooter as Harden or even Bledsoe, but there's no doubting the amount of talent he has. He is worth the risk.

[GrimeyKidd]

If he gets rid off his ivan johnson attitude yes

[BudBall]

I Defiantly want him. He is the risk that we need to take. I wonder how much he will get or perhaps maybe pacers willing to go in the tax?

[hazer]

Teague, Stephenson, DMC, Milsap, Horford (Korver 6th) has ECF written all over it.

Edited April 14, 2014 by hazer

[Jody23]

What's the likelyhood that he leaves Indy? And why would he come to a team that he's beaten in the first round two years in a row? I'm not a Stephensen fan at all, but he's a talent.

[Ebert]

Bring him here Danny. With our core if healthy + draft pick + Lance + our staff we could be a 50W team.

What's the likelyhood that he leaves Indy? And why would he come to a team that he's beaten in the first round two years in a row? I'm not a Stephensen fan at all, but he's a talent.

Indy has just 2 options. If Lance doesn't leave they will have to get rid of one of their core players. They can't afford the luxury tax. So... I think the chance of Lance leaving Indy is big.

There will be a few teams trying to purchase him. But some of the teams with cap space already have a starting SG so... let's see what happens

[Peoriabird]

Not a fan.

[BudBall]

Not a fan.

Reason?

[LamarHampton]

What's his max under the cba?

[Peoriabird]

Reason?

Per- 14.73?

[Guest]

He isn't as gifted a shooter as Harden or even Bledsoe, but there's no doubting the amount of talent he has. He is worth the risk.

If this Coaching staff can help DMC/Scott and Sap improve their shooting, I would have high hoops for Stephenson. The talent is there my only concern is his attitude. In Indy he plays and fills a role and understands his role and place on the team. If he comes here will his head swell with thoughts of being 'the man'. I think we have a strong coaching staff and veteran presence to keep him in check!

Sign me up.

Edited April 14, 2014 by JayBirdHawk

[Guest]

What's the likelyhood that he leaves Indy? And why would he come to a team that he's beaten in the first round two years in a row? I'm not a Stephensen fan at all, but he's a talent.

Larry Bird has already said that Indy cannot afford to go over the Luxury Tax. Maybe he decides he wants out from Paul Geirge's shadow. I read somewhere that he and George Hill got into a fight. Something is not right in Indy.

[Ebert]

Per- 14.73?

Last year Paul George PER: 16.8

Not very concerned about PER. It doesn't show his talent, upside and defense...

Edited April 14, 2014 by Ebert

[benhillboy]

I usually hate guys with his attitude and antics. Still, there is no substitute for a solid defender with size who is a triple double possibility every night while energizing and engaging the crowd. None. Ferry and Bud will have to study hard and do their homework on every aspect of the kid, but I wouldn't have any problem with 5 years/ 60 milli. That's peanuts compared to what Sund gave Joe or what we saw Josh walk for, although I know the landscape of max deals is changing yearly.

His three ball, already good, could use some tweaking. Let Bud get a hold of him, and watch all his shooting percentages and A:TO bump up a little more. One of our two main problems was having that guy who could manufacture points and get to the line off the dribble consistently from the half court set, Teague usually does it in transition. Look at the field in the East of 2s:

Wade

Olidipo

Beal

DeRozan

Hardaway

Butler

Waiters

Wade, the very underrated Jordan Spawn that he is, is seemingly on his deathbed. As good a defender as Lance is, Butler is better. I'm an Olidipo fan through and through. That said, Lance would trash this entire field for years to come. "Is Brooklyn in the House?" I would hope so.

Edited April 14, 2014 by benhillboy

[Peoriabird]

Last year Paul George PER: 16.8

Not very concerned about PER. It doesn't show his talent, upside and defense...

'10-'11 .333 .786 12.9 6.3 7.3 41.0 25.6 19.5 23.0 8.7 5.57 '

11-'12 .376 .471 9.6 4.8 4.2 40.0 21.4 16.8 16.7 6.7 7.07

'12-'13 .460 .652 12.1 5.3 3.9 53.0 22.7 11.1 14.9 7.4 11.85 '

13-'14 .491 .711 15.7 8.1 5.2 56.4 23.5 13.8 19.0 11.4 14.73

Edited April 14, 2014 by Peoriabird

[Peoriabird]

I usually hate guys with his attitude and antics. Still, there is no substitute for a solid defender with size who is a triple double possibility every night while energizing and engaging the crowd. None. Ferry and Bud will have to study hard and do their homework on every aspect of the kid, but I wouldn't have any problem with 5 years/ 60 milli. That's peanuts compared to what Sund gave Joe or what we saw Josh walk for, although I know the landscape of max deals is changing yearly.

12 million per year for a project? No thank you!

[Jody23]

Larry Bird has already said that Indy cannot afford to go over the Luxury Tax. Maybe he decides he wants out from Paul Geirge's shadow. I read somewhere that he and George Hill got into a fight. Something is not right in Indy.

I still don't see why Stephensen would come to a team he just beat in the first round. That being said, after suffering thru the attitude of J Smoove, I see Ferry being hesitant to pursue and give big money to another drama queen with attitude issues.

[Ebert]

'10-'11 .333 .786 12.9 6.3 7.3 41.0 25.6 19.5 23.0 8.7 5.57 '

11-'12 .376 .471 9.6 4.8 4.2 40.0 21.4 16.8 16.7 6.7 7.07

'12-'13 .460 .652 12.1 5.3 3.9 53.0 22.7 11.1 14.9 7.4 11.85 '

13-'14 .491 .711 15.7 8.1 5.2 56.4 23.5 13.8 19.0 11.4 14.73

So... his PER it's improving each year... What happens to think that it won't continue improving??? He's still 23...

[macdaddy]

I still don't see why Stephensen would come to a team he just beat in the first round. That being said, after suffering thru the attitude of J Smoove, I see Ferry being hesitant to pursue and give big money to another drama queen with attitude issues.

I don't see why beating a team in the playoffs (assuming that happens) would disqualify them from a free agent list. The Heat and Thunder aren't going to sign him.