K Love in ATL tonight

[MaceCase]

 

My only thing that would suggest rigging is why do they have to do the lottery behind closed doors. Why not do it on live television in front of the whole world like the actual GA lottery drawings are done. If there isn't any rigging, then there is nothing to hide...

The reason for that is because the actual lottery process is as interesting as watching old people play Friday night church bingo......and the actual lottery process has the #1 pick being the very first selection.  It's hard to turn this into exciting live televison:

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/draft/2014/05/20/052014-draft-lottery-behind-the-scenes.nba/

 

Again, you can follow the money on that, ESPN broadcasts what they broadcast because that's what creates the most drama which equals ratings.   The actual lottery process is done in front of representatives from the league and every lotto team, auditors and journalists.  That's a lot of independent serving interests to get to buy into one conspiracy; you have team reps that are focused on their own bottom lines and not helping some other franchise, you have auditors and lawyers concerned about their reputation and you have journalists that would each be dying to be the one that scoops the story that the NBA is actually rigged.....yet nada, they all fall for the master plan that has been set forth by Grand Magus Davinius Sternicus that says Cleveland is the divine choice for the 3rd time?

[AHF]

The reason to look at average is that the NBA would prefer average to an escalating contract.  If the total value is $100M, that is worth more in real dollars at $10M per year than a contract starting at $7.5M and increasing by $.5M every year.  Since the NBA has good leverage in these negotiations, a flat rate per year is actually frontloading the contract in terms of present day value and a flat annual rate is a much easier sell to ABC, ESPN, etc. than it would be to do something like $12.5M in year 1 and decreasing every year.

 

In the sports world, teams generally prefer to backload the contracts so the hit in terms of present day dollars and % of cap is lower in the later years (although we have seen situations like the Korver contract where the team would prefer to frontload).  That is not at all the incentive for the NBA when negotiating their media rights license.  They want the money up front and would take a simple lump sum payment if they could.  Since they can't, a flat amount per year is definitely preferable to a Joe Johnson type of agreement.

 

In sum, while I don't at all disagree we should we wary of bad reporting and that reporters frequently mess these things up, a flat year contract seems within the realm of reasonable and is what the NBA would prefer so it wouldn't surprise me at all if that was actually correct.

 

In fact, there are articles using that same $930M figure when talking about potential losses for the NBA's media partners due to the lockout back in 2011:

 

 

 

Ad Week reports that ESPN/ABC and TNT would miss out on up to 1.25 billion dollars from a year with no basketball ad money. If the 2011-2012 season actually happens, those channels would collectively pay 930 million dollars for that 1.25 billion return in broadcast revenue, a potential 320 million-dollar gap between what the NBA sells TV content for and what broadcasters make off of it. This is a quite a steal for the TV side considering that broadcasters often overpay for the privilege of attaching themselves to sports. For perspective, networks give the NFL 4 billion dollars in return for 3 billion in ad money. My suspicion is that pro basketball could easily make up the 300 million they claim to be losing–if only the league had a mulligan on TV rights negotiations.

 

Again, it is not conclusive but it is consistent with a flat contract and I see nothing suggesting anything other than a flat deal.

Edited August 8, 2014 by AHF

[Dejay]

I agree with most of this argument. If the league were to rig the league, they'd rig it in favor of teams like Atlanta, but it could argued that Miami and Houston are similar markets and they've both have had success attaining top talent in recent years, although I agree the pooling of talent isn't favorable for the league. It's hard for the league to have credibility when the face of the league teams up with other All-Stars to win titles.

Also, the idea that the league rigs in favor of major markets, i.e. New York, LA, Chicago is false too because those venues have the city population to fill a stadium no matter the type of basketball they play. A team can find 20,000 diehards to fill a stadium when said team in stationed in a city with a population of 10+ million people. Cities like Atlanta and Houston are the hotbeds up for grabs because the fans are here, but we are spoiled for choice when it comes to entertainment. Really, the fans the Hawks are fighting for are the family guys taking the wife and kids out to dinner and a game and the bandwagoner that puts on a Cleveland James jersey cause he feels it makes him a winner. Casual fans don't have the patience for a rebuild or mediocrity, especially when the Falcons and UGA are competitive and you can catch the Hawks with Bob and Nique on Sports South. All of the Hawks' diehard fans are on Hawksquawk. The Hawks also need to stop selling season tickets to these no-show businesses because it looks so bad...

And that's precisely why I have been so gung ho against their 'win without losing' approach to doing business. It doesn't move the meter AT ALL with casual fans who are only concerned with contending teams and superstar players. Sorry, but this isn't NYC with a zillion folks living two blocks away from the arena. Nor is this a one-horse like San Antonio, Portland, or Sacramento which doesn't have the competition of the SEC/ACC, much less the other two pro sports leagues to deal with. Folks here are far more apt to find something else to get into or simply stay home and watch the game on Fox SS. This goes double if there is no star cache or a dominant 60+ win squad to lure fans into the arena.

That is why they will continue to struggle in this market as long as they're settling for incremental success and 45-win seasons every year. That might get your building sold out in Salt Lake, where there's nothing else to do other than buy tickets to the game; but not here. Going to the playoffs seven years in a row only to get royally thumped might get you more appreciated in Sacramento; but here, no one cares unless you're winning something that matters.

[NBASupes]

And that's precisely why I have been so gung ho against their 'win without losing' approach to doing business. It doesn't move the meter AT ALL with casual fans who are only concerned with contending teams and superstar players. Sorry, but this isn't NYC with a zillion folks living two blocks away from the arena. Nor is this a one-horse like San Antonio, Portland, or Sacramento which doesn't have the competition of the SEC/ACC, much less the other two pro sports leagues to deal with. Folks here are far more apt to find something else to get into or simply stay home and watch the game on Fox SS. This goes double if there is no star cache or a dominant 60+ win squad to lure fans into the arena.

That is why they will continue to struggle in this market as long as they're settling for incremental success and 45-win seasons every year. That might get your building sold out in Salt Lake, where there's nothing else to do other than buy tickets to the game; but not here. Going to the playoffs seven years in a row only to get royally thumped might get you more appreciated in Sacramento; but here, no one cares unless you're winning something that matters.

It depends how you win. No one is jumping over joy for Denver's roster but Golden State or Portland's roster generates attention. The problem with the Hawks isn't they aren't contenders, it's they don't really put a worthwhile product on the floor. Other fans have little to no interest in watching the Hawks either. It's not just local Atlanta citizens. 

[Dejay]

It depends how you win. No one is jumping over joy for Denver's roster but Golden State or Portland's roster generates attention. The problem with the Hawks isn't they aren't contenders, it's they don't really put a worthwhile product on the floor. Other fans have little to no interest in watching the Hawks either. It's not just local Atlanta citizens.

I can agree with that too. There isn't anything there that screams pay $50+ to see this live. Lunch pail rosters would work here if they won 55+ every year. But 40-45? Uh, no...

[Hairydawgz]

I read that as "Partying in Flip Flops" lol..

[turnermx]

It depends how you win. No one is jumping over joy for Denver's roster but Golden State or Portland's roster generates attention. The problem with the Hawks isn't they aren't contenders, it's they don't really put a worthwhile product on the floor. Other fans have little to no interest in watching the Hawks either. It's not just local Atlanta citizens.

Honestly sometimes it appears you guys arent even watching the games. "They dont really put a worthwhile product on the floor". Really? Not worthwhile for superstar groupie fans i suppose but for knowledgable basketball fans they definitely play with a style and identity that had been missing prior to last season. They will be even better this year. The bandwagon is waiting..

[ViperXX79]

Honestly sometimes it appears you guys arent even watching the games. "They dont really put a worthwhile product on the floor". Really? Not worthwhile for superstar groupie fans i suppose but for knowledgable basketball fans they definitely play with a style and identity that had been missing prior to last season. They will be even better this year. The bandwagon is waiting..

By "knowledgeable basketball fans" do you mean a complete homer?  Because this team has no shot at a championship and forgive me maybe I'm wrong but I thought winning titles was the objective.  That new identity sure did make us better right?  Oh wait...

[RWF]

Honestly sometimes it appears you guys arent even watching the games. "They dont really put a worthwhile product on the floor". Really? Not worthwhile for superstar groupie fans i suppose but for knowledgable basketball fans they definitely play with a style and identity that had been missing prior to last season. They will be even better this year. The bandwagon is waiting..

 

Some of us are realistic in expectations. Others make threads about how Kent Bazemore is our next all-star for some reason and act like the Cavs and Bulls isn't going to wipe the floor with us in a playoff series. You need superstars, not for marketability, but for the fact that a superstar is usually a top player in the league on the court, the ones that wins championships (Duncan, Lebron, etc).

[turnermx]

I am willing to bet that No team is going to wipe the floor with us in the playoffs , either the Cavs or the Bulls they may beat us but they will have to earn it. I think it is too early to tell but our team is better on paper and has the avenue for intangible improvements that did not exist in prior years. Player development didnt even exist in prior regimes for the young players let alone the vets..

[Guest]

I am willing to bet that No team is going to wipe the floor with us in the playoffs , either the Cavs or the Bulls they may beat us but they will have to earn it. I think it is too early to tell but our team is better on paper and has the avenue for intangible improvements that did not exist in prior years. Player development didnt even exist in prior regimes for the young players let alone the vets..

I gather that @RWF was just intimating that we're a tier below the elite in the conference still. It doesn't make you a 'groupie' fan to acknowledge that. I said in another thread that many folks flat out question your intelligence if you choose not to wear the homer goggles around here.

It's ok for us to have differing opinions. For example, there was tremendous development in the hated Josh Smith but since we don't like him no one ever acknowledges it. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of what Budz has going on. But it wont matter how good he is at player development if we have rosters stocked with lesser players.

[AHF]

We are clearly not on the same level as the true contenders.  Sad but true.