How many honestly think we make it past the 1st with this roster?

[turnermx]

ECF.

[MaceCase]

Not unless Ferry has secretly been constructing the pieces to Voltron. Individually these lions are just kittens but when you start seeing one transform into a torso and another pulling a sword from another's mouth, lookout world.

[yungsta]

Im 50/50.

 

I see us on the same level as the raptors, wizards, heat, and bobcats. It all depends oran how favorable of a matchup we get. Out of those 4 teams I think we match up best with the raptors and bobcats.

[Peoriabird]

I do because I believe in Bud!

[MrMeltdown]

Yes, I do. If Rose stays healthy I see the East as:

 

Cavs

Bulls

Hawks

Hornets

Wiz

Raptors

Heat

Nets/Knicks/Pistons

 

The teams we are most likely to face in the 1st would be Hornets, Wiz, Raptors, or Heat. I think we beat any of those teams with homecourt advantage.

[BrazilianHawk]

If healthy, ECF should be our ceiling.

[MaceCase]

Oh geez, reading through the thread and seeing so many mentions of the second round I didn't notice the title actually read getting out of the "1st". Oh of course the team can, no need for Voltron on that, Ferry can save his secret weapon.

[Guest]

Well DRose has sore knees already. Rest days from team USA.

[Sothron]

Why are we not holding DF accountable to THAT standard?  Until he puts together a squad that can escape the 2nd round, he will not have accomplished anything beyond ANY former Hawks GM.  1st and 2nd round appearances and 40-50 win seasons?  Been there and done that.

Flexibility!

Cap space!

System!

[macdaddy]

Well if your core beliefs are:

 

1. A superstar will never come to the Hawks

2. We can't win anything of importance without a superstar

 

Then:

 

1. Why is this Ferry's fault when it's out of his control

2. How do you get any joy in being a fan when you firmly believe there is zero chance of winning

[Guest]

Well if your core beliefs are:

 

1. A superstar will never come to the Hawks - This hasn't happened but that doesn't mean it can't happen (via draft, FAgency or trade).

2. We can't win anything of importance without a superstar - Better GM'n and we can get closer than we have before so ...

 

Then:

 

1. Why is this Ferry's fault when it's out of his control - It's not out of his control.

2. How do you get any joy in being a fan when you firmly believe there is zero chance of winning - Take it one game at a time kemosabe.

[macdaddy]

 

 

 

 

I should have quoted for reference.   A bunch of folks liked this post:

 

 

 

Some fans know we can't get a superstar so they embrace the false hope that we can be the first team to take a bunch of average players to a championship.

 

 

Maybe it's stated the wrong way but it seems there is a belief that we can't get a superstar (since it says that).   So if we are going to take that as a truth (for the sake of argument) then hell yeah i'm going to believe that we can do it another way.   Rather than just sitting back with a defeatist attitude.

[Guest]

I should have quoted for reference.   A bunch of folks liked this post:

 

Maybe it's stated the wrong way but it seems there is a belief that we can't get a superstar (since it says that).   So if we are going to take that as a truth (for the sake of argument) then hell yeah i'm going to believe that we can do it another way.   Rather than just sitting back with a defeatist attitude.

 

I see what you mean and I agree it's probably meant to be worded a different way.  I also agree that, if that's the prerequisite, then I'd have no choice but believe we can do it a different way.  Curses, macdaddy has tricked me into being an optimist. 

[Nicholasp27]

Well since I believe we will be the #2 seed in the playoffs (#3 really but Bulls and Cavs are in the same division so we will get a higher seed and win our division) I think that we get by the #7 seed and get matched up with the #3 seed Bulls or Cavs(whoever is 2nd in that division) and probably lose to either of them in round 2 in 6 games. So to answer your question..

YES!

That's not how it works

Each division must have a top 4 seed so top 3 records are top 3 (unless all 3 same division) and 4th seed would go to other division winner if not already in top 4

Then HC is based on record, not seeding, so 5th can have HC advantage if better record than 4th seed

Edited August 20, 2014 by Nicholasp27

[Nicholasp27]

Also we are 50/50 first round right now and at worst 20/80 dogs round 2 which still means a 10% shot at ECF so no need for "0% chance" hyperbole

[macdaddy]

I see what you mean and I agree it's probably meant to be worded a different way.  I also agree that, if that's the prerequisite, then I'd have no choice but believe we can do it a different way.  Curses, macdaddy has tricked me into being an optimist. 

 

Hilarious!   I do have high hopes that we take a big step forward this year.   If not I'll be ready for bigger changes.  But to me it's a new regime and a new direction.  This is year two of a real Ferry/Bud team so I don't see a second round exit as a big failure unless it's a total wipe out.    The fact that we did that prior to the new regime is irrelevant at this point.   Keep going up.   

[Guest]

 Curses, macdaddy has tricked me into being an optimist. 

@kg01 He got you dude, I can't believe it....hahaha.

 

Welcome to the dark side....

Edited August 20, 2014 by JayBirdHawk

[Wretch]

Well if your core beliefs are:

 

1. A superstar will never come to the Hawks

2. We can't win anything of importance without a superstar

 

Then:

 

1. Why is this Ferry's fault when it's out of his control

2. How do you get any joy in being a fan when you firmly believe there is zero chance of winning

On your assumptions regarding our "core beliefs":

 

1) I don't believe that a "superstar" will never come to play for Atlanta.  I just believe that they have 100% control over where they play.  That being said, they typically choose the situation that gives them the best shot at *contending and they choose the best fit.  They don't see us as either.

2) Let's call "anything of importance" getting to the ECF's and beyond.  To do that this year, we will have to defeat one of Chicago or Cleveland.  But there has always been and there will always be a Bulls/Cavs, Heat/Pacers, Knicks/Bulls, Magic/Celtics, etc.  We have to beat those teams to get there and we're not doing that without a certain kind of player.  History doesn't support an argument otherwise.

 

People like to say, "Oh, but there aren't but a few of those kinds of players in the NBA..."  

 

To that I would only respond...

 

To answer your follow up questions:

1)  Our problem is this:

 

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2014/7/15/5903745/nba-free-agency-atlanta-hawks-zach-lowe

No one will take Atlanta's money, despite a good core of players, a very good coaching staff, and an innovative style of play Mike Budenholzer has only just begun installing. Some stars won't even meet with them. I almost wanted to hug Budenholzer when I saw him in Vegas. The most common theory among insiders for Atlanta's lack of appeal is that players see the Hawks as a dull franchise with a dead crowd and a limited postseason history that almost always involves NBA TV.

We have built a reputation for peaking at the 1st/2nd round.  That is not Danny Ferry's fault.  However, we are kidding ourselves if we think we change that without elite talent.  If Danny Ferry doesn't do something about it, then he is at fault for PERPETUATING the status-quo.  He is the GM after all.  

From the moment he signed Lou Williams, I've been skeptical.  The problem is, he has severely limited our options with this plan.  Players have to "fit", we have to main our playoff spot, and Horford/Millsap are sacred cows.  That sort of narrowly focused vision coupled with a severe lack of free agent interest is begging for failure (or sustained mediocrity).  It's almost as bad as BK's all 6'8" vision.  The saving grace for DF is that MAYBE a free agent miracle can fall out of the sky.  Though I'm not holding my breath.

 

2) I've been a fan for almost 30 years.  It's been very difficult for me to remain positive through Ferry's tenure.  Probably the most difficult when I think about it.  The disheartening part is knowing that Danny Ferry has a long ways to go before he can catch up with the success of Billy Knight, Pete Babcock, and Rick Sund/ASG.  

Think about that for a second and forgive me if I don't jump for joy simply because we look better doing the exact same dance we've done for 20 years.

[Guest]

@kg01 He got you dude, I can't believe it....hahaha.

 

 

Welcome to the dark side....

 

Ha, he got me once.  Usually I'm all ...

[AHF]

Maybe it's stated the wrong way but it seems there is a belief that we can't get a superstar (since it says that).   So if we are going to take that as a truth (for the sake of argument) then hell yeah i'm going to believe that we can do it another way.   Rather than just sitting back with a defeatist attitude.

 

Thus why there have been so many tanking threads.  Anyone can get a superstar if they get lucky in the lottery.  That is always an available way to get a superstar whether via trade (Cleveland getting the #1 pick from the Clippers; LAL trading for the #1 pick in the 80's, etc.) or play (the Spurs riding Robinson's injury to draft Duncan, Chicago putting up a terrible record to get Jordan, etc.)  Whether we choose to acquire a lottery pick by trade or qualify for one by record is largely within Ferry's control.

 

If we aren't going to try to go with the draft, then I would still try for a star via trade or free agency (no need to quit on this even if the odds are low).

 

If we can't get that superstar by any of these means, then we need to pick a strategy and follow it whether that is trying to be the Billups era Pistons (a collection of All-Star but not superstar level talent) or forge a new path.  

 

Even at their worst, I have always thought that the ASG wanted to end up with a ring.  If I didn't, it would be tough to be a fan.