With Al Horford back, can the Hawks contend in the East?

[Guest]

The Atlanta Hawks have become darlings of the Internet basketball community even as in the broader mainstream context ... no one really knows they exist. That includes national television (the Hawks appear twice on national channels that aren't NBATV), most marketing materials, and the citizens of Atlanta (28th in attendance via ESPN). The die-hard fans know the Hawks, admire the Hawks, love the Hawks.

No one else even recognizes Atlanta and on the surface, they shouldn't. The 38-win eighth seed in a phenomenally terrible conference that lost in seven games to the implodingIndiana Pacers? What's the reason to get excited about them?

In the first two months of the season, right up until the afternoon of Dec. 27, the Hawks were third in the Eastern Conference. They were already 6.5 games back of first, but 3.5 games up on the fourth place team (the Pistons!). They were 10th in net points per possession, ahead of the Mavericks, Raptors, and Bulls, among other teams. Here was their point differential game-by-game, courtesy of Basketball-Reference, through that afternoon.

In reality, they had largely established themselves as the third-best team in the East, right up until the night before, towards the end of a win over Cleveland.

That's when Al Horford was injured. Horford suffered a torn right pectoral muscle. And that was it for his season. The Hawks went on to finish 22-31, and were 20th in net points per possession for the rest of the season.

I don't know how this got lost in the shuffle, but it did. And it means that outside of the Cavs and their bevy of collections they nabbed this summer, and the Bulls when Rose hopefully gets back into the NBA swing of things, the Hawks may have gained the biggest impact player of any team just by virtue of Horford returning.

Horford, a two-time All-Star, is commonly known as "the other Florida guy" along with the better known Joakim Noah, despite the fact that Horford has had a better NBA career ... right up until that Dec. 26 game when Horford went down. Noah went on to become an MVP candidate and lead the Bulls to the fourth seed before their lack of offense exposed them vs. the Wizards. Noah's significant struggle vs. Nene and the Wizards shouldn't take away from a fantastic season, but it's very likely that both Florida boys would have finished with tremendous seasons if it weren't for the injury.

Horford averaged 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.5 blocks in the 29 games he played or Atlanta, shooting a career-high 57 percent from the field, and had career highs in PER, effective field goal percentage (he shot and made a handful of threes), block percentage, and usage rate (he took on a bigger load of the offense while remaining efficient).

So he was having a tremendous season under coach Mike Budenholzer to begin with. What has to leave you so excited, however, is how much he can help not the team that he was with when he was injured, but the Hawks team that they eventually became.

Horford's mobility is the big key to his game. There's a fluidity to his movement that both disguises his strength and augments it. His touch around the basket means that even when defenses scheme to prevent his attack, he finds quality looks.

But then, you also can lose sight of the fact that he comes in at 6-10, 250 lbs. and can back you down, and once he's created space, that tricky skillset comes back into play.

Horford's ability to stretch the floor is what makes him so valuable for this Hawks team, though. The Hawks are all about shooters and Horford shot 48 percent, on par with Chris Bosh and Stephen Curry, from mid-range, according to NBA.com.

His release is quick, and his understanding of spacing out of the pick and roll makes him particularly difficult to defend.

But beyond the mid-range is this, where Horford was expanding his game last season before the injury.

Horford started expanding his game to the arc last season, taking nearly twice as many threes in the first two months of the season as he did in all of 2013. But even that was before the Hawks really found their identity as a spread-floor team. Their five-out attack in the playoffs nearly gave them the upset over the Pacers, but the Hawks averaged significantly fewer threes per game while Horford was around than after his injury. Some of that can be ascribed to Horford' presence, but the team was also learning the system and its own identity.

Horford struggled early but started to develop his three in December ... before tearing his pec. Meanwhile, the Hawks' ball-movement centric system gave their best player quality looks from deep.

That isn't to say that Horford's likely to move into a Chris Bosh role as an emerging three-point threat. But Horford's talent not only as the Hawks' best overall player, but specifically within the Hawks' offensive system, will have dramatic effects. Atlanta could very well return to where they were before that unfortunate injury. The Wizards and Raptors are considered the heirs to the top of the Eastern Conference behind the Cavaliers and Bulls, but Horford's return may make the Hawks a legitimate contender in the East.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24675050/with-al-horford-back-can-the-hawks-contend-in-the-east

[frosgrim]

I like the optimism. I'd still like to add something else to this team (my real preference for the off season was Parsons....sigh).

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

It really hinges on what Teague we get and if Horford can stay healthy. We know what the rest of the starting cast will give us. Also, what kind of impact will Thabo and Bazemore have. I think those two guys are improvements over Lou and Cartier. We should be a fun team to watch.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[High5]

It's nice to see a piece like that come from somewhere as big as CBS, not that I've ever gone to CBS for basketball information. I agree that Horford's presence seems to be underestimated by many, even on here. When you factor everything into the equation (including Bud's second year and natural progression for our young players), it's reasonable to expect improvements across the board (with some luck in the health department). Korver may be the only player who has peaked as far as individual ability is concerned, but he will undoubtedly get better looks with Horford on the floor. 

 

Will those improvements be enough to win the East? No, I seriously doubt it, but I'm not counting out an ECF appearance. My biggest concerns are Cleveland and Washington. I feel like we have a decent matchup with everyone else. 

[Guest]

It's nice to see a piece like that come from somewhere as big as CBS, not that I've ever gone to CBS for basketball information. I agree that Horford's presence seems to be underestimated by many, even on here. When you factor everything into the equation (including Bud's second year and natural progression for our young players), it's reasonable to expect improvements across the board (with some luck in the health department). Korver may be the only player who has peaked as far as individual ability is concerned, but he will undoubtedly get better looks with Horford on the floor. 

 

Will those improvements be enough to win the East? No, I seriously doubt it, but I'm not counting out an ECF appearance. My biggest concerns are Cleveland and Washington. I feel like we have a decent matchup with everyone else. 

 

I've actually found CBS to be a relatively good source for basketball info, especially college info.

 

Agree this is a neat article coming from a national point of view.  Actually shows some insight despite the obligatory anti-Atlanta stuff at the start.  The comparison between the two Florida guys was interesting.

 

I'm curious to know why you left CHI out of your list of teams we don't match up well against?  CHI has had our number for years with/without Rose.

[buckeye242424]

Ive said it before, it's like adding an all-star to a playoff team..... Having a healthy Horf makes this team soooo much better. I think we underestimate it.

[AHF]

Ive said it before, it's like adding an all-star to a playoff team..... Having a healthy Horf makes this team soooo much better. I think we underestimate it.

I agree with this but qualify us as a playoff team last season.  We won 38 games but that isn't enough to make the playoffs a lot of years.  Had we been in the West we would have missed the playoffs last year by 11 games so it is different when you talk about adding Horford to a team that won 46 games versus a team that won 38 games and made the playoffs by default.

 

Bottomline is that a healthy Horford will be a huge impact on this team.  On that I don't need any qualifier.

[Guest]

I've actually found CBS to be a relatively good source for basketball info, especially college info.

Agree this is a neat article coming from a national point of view. Actually shows some insight despite the obligatory anti-Atlanta stuff at the start. The comparison between the two Florida guys was interesting.

I'm curious to know why you left CHI out of your list of teams we don't match up well against? CHI has had our number for years with/without Rose.

Ya the Bulls are out older brother. They beat up on us seemingly every time we play(or at least it seems that way). We are the little brother, we get bullied, pushed around, and sometimes even purple nurpled...:-/

[High5]

I've actually found CBS to be a relatively good source for basketball info, especially college info.

 

Agree this is a neat article coming from a national point of view.  Actually shows some insight despite the obligatory anti-Atlanta stuff at the start.  The comparison between the two Florida guys was interesting.

 

I'm curious to know why you left CHI out of your list of teams we don't match up well against?  CHI has had our number for years with/without Rose.

 

 

I'm not hating on CBS, I just don't associate them with the NBA and I'm not much of a college basketball fan. 

 

As for Chicago, it's not that I think they're a good matchup for us, but I don't think they'll be as tough as Cleveland/Washington. Personally, I thought Rose was overrated when he was at this best and I'm not sure what condition he'll be in after missing two seasons. I like that matchup for Teague. Noah/Gasol are tough, but I think Horford/Sap can win that on any given night. Then it's mostly don't let Gibson kill us and have our shooters in slightly better form than theirs. 

 

That's just how I feel about it. I could be way off, but time will tell. 

Edited August 25, 2014 by High5

[JTB]

It really hinges on what Teague we get and if Horford can stay healthy. We know what the rest of the starting cast will give us. Also, what kind of impact will Thabo and Bazemore have. I think those two guys are improvements over Lou and Cartier. We should be a fun team to watch.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agreed...a healthy horford along with a healthy hawks team we can add 6-10 more wins from last season easily.

But a lot of what we can and can't do is in the hands of Teague. Teague can make this team a 50 win season and a guranteed lock for the 2nd round if he plays to his max ability all with a healthy hawks team.

Teague can really be something special! Horford is important and our best player but Teague just has greater impact on this teams success especially around playoff time.

[cam1218]

When I see "experts" make their picks in the East I always wonder if they understand that we lost Horford for the majority of last year. We lost an All-Star playing at a high level and we get him back. That isn't a big deal?

With Horford back and the improvement that we expect from the players that were in the system all year last year, I think we should contend. Not for a championship but I do believe we should be 3/4 in the East if healthy.

After that I'll take my chances in the playoffs. We won't be an easy out for the top 2 teams.

[Gray Mule]

Hopefully, we will be adding a healthy all star to our roster.

 

Players, except for our new additions, have a season's experience with

"The Bud program."  It's very important to understand what Bud wants

done and how he wants it done.

 

One very important factor, I believe, that is never mentioned is this.  Horford

was with the Hawks for the majority of the season and he has had the opportunity

to observe and learn all about Bud's system and how it works, even if he was

not able to take part.

 

Someone said if we were in the west we would not have made the playoffs.

Well, think of this.  If a toad frog had a landing gear, he wouldn't bump his

butt every time he jumped.

 

Several years ago, the Braves were in the western division, along with the

Giants and Dodgers.  Never understood this.  Unless someone takes a wild

notion to add this Atlanta Hawk team to a western division, we will not be

going there.

 

GO DREAM !!

[HawkItus]

My only worry is that the pec injury could affect his shooting. 

[macdaddy]

My only worry is that the pec injury could affect his shooting. 

 

I actually hadn't given that much thought but it's a great point.   This time it was the right pectoral whereas first time was the left.   So this could be much more difficult.   Hopefully not though.

[AHF]

 

Someone said if we were in the west we would not have made the playoffs.

Well, think of this.  If a toad frog had a landing gear, he wouldn't bump his

butt every time he jumped.

 

Several years ago, the Braves were in the western division, along with the

Giants and Dodgers.  Never understood this.  Unless someone takes a wild

notion to add this Atlanta Hawk team to a western division, we will not be

going there.

 

GO DREAM !!

 

I said it.  It was in response to the notion that we might be ready for a big leap since we were adding an All-Star level talent to a team that already made the playoffs last year.

 

I was pointing out that you have to understand how high the gulf is from the championship contenders to where we were last season.  I did that by pointing out that we wouldn't have been close to making the playoffs in the West but we can look at it a different way too.  Last season we finished with the 18th best record out of 30 teams.  In order to be a true contender, we have to make the jump to one of the very best teams in the league.  

 

I think it is unfair to Horford to think about how his return will affect our ability to contend in the way we might think about adding another All-Star to this year's team.  He can only pull this group up so far.  If he adds 10 wins, that would put us as the 13th best team last year.  If he adds 15 wins, it would have put us as the 7th best team.  It isn't fair to expect that kind of impact from his return, IMO.  To get in those ranges - which puts us a little bit below contender status, we will not only need a triumphant return from him but key development from our existing players (Teague first among them).

 

I don't think it is realistic to expect us to close the gap to contender status with Horford's return and the few moves we have made.  To expect us to jump to contender this season is to set Horford, Bud, and Ferry up to look like failures even if we significantly improve (which we should do).  I don't think that is realistic or fair, but people are all free to disagree.

[Gray Mule]

Do I expect the Hawks to be world beaters?  Champions of the NBA?  Hardly.

What I do believe is, if we can stay healthy, and this is always the biggest issue,

we should see drastic improvements from last season.

 

Having Horford back is only a part of it.  "Playoff JT" is talking.  Actions speak louder

than words and I hope and expect him to come through for us.

 

Did we improve when we added the other players?  We can't really know until they

get the opportunity to hit the floor in real games, not just exhibition.  Our thought

process is, we hope that those moves improved us.

 

How about our first round draft pick?  Will he be good enough to contribute in a

positive way?  Payne is a big boy and we all thought that we needed a big body

to play inside and rebound.  Right now, we believe that he can do this.

 

Dennis the Menance should be more mature and ready to assume some responsibility

toward the outcome of most games.  If so, this is a big plus.

 

Since this is the second year for Bud, he should be more mature and really better

prepared as a head coach.  He's had a year to grow.

 

In my weak and feeble mind, this all adds up to a better seasonal record and a higher seed

in the playoffs.  Then, a healthy Hawks team will cause someone problems they really

wouldn't want to face.

 

GO DREAM !

[AHF]

In my weak and feeble mind, this all adds up to a better seasonal record and a higher seed

in the playoffs.  

 

I agree with this 100% -- that should be the expectation.  I don't see us making the leap into the ECF, though, which is the next step for this franchise.  We should end up with that higher seed and with the right matchup we should be in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  Beyond that I don't have much in the way of what I think of as realistic expectations -- just hopes we can finally get beyond our traditional first/second round playoff exit.

[JTB]

I said it. It was in response to the notion that we might be ready for a big leap since we were adding an All-Star level talent to a team that already made the playoffs last year.

I was pointing out that you have to understand how high the gulf is from the championship contenders to where we were last season. I did that by pointing out that we wouldn't have been close to making the playoffs in the West but we can look at it a different way too. Last season we finished with the 18th best record out of 30 teams. In order to be a true contender, we have to make the jump to one of the very best teams in the league.

I think it is unfair to Horford to think about how his return will affect our ability to contend in the way we might think about adding another All-Star to this year's team. He can only pull this group up so far. If he adds 10 wins, that would put us as the 13th best team last year. If he adds 15 wins, it would have put us as the 7th best team. It isn't fair to expect that kind of impact from his return, IMO. To get in those ranges - which puts us a little bit below contender status, we will not only need a triumphant return from him but key development from our existing players (Teague first among them).

I don't think it is realistic to expect us to close the gap to contender status with Horford's return and the few moves we have made. To expect us to jump to contender this season is to set Horford, Bud, and Ferry up to look like failures even if we significantly improve (which we should do). I don't think that is realistic or fair, but people are all free to disagree.

I agree...but I don't think it's a problem to say horford a return will gurantee the hawks 7 or however many more wins on our regular season record.

The problem comes in at the point where people believe his return will make us a contender!...even if we got the 3rd seed with this team it won't mean we are a contender and it especially won't be up to horford.

First off being a contender is a TEAM thing. Second and @AHF mention this to certain degree...Teague is the player we have to look to as far as how far we go (I truly believe that) if Teague doesn't bring it hawksquawk I gotta be honest and say I don't care if sap and horford play perfect in the playoffs...Teague has the greatest impact on this team out of any of our other players if he's on top of his game.

[tbhawksfan]

Playoff Teague showed his limit in game 5 when his team should have put Indy away. Instead of taking over with the lead and time running out he made a couple of weak mitakes and then shied away.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The problem with this team is that we're literally depending on 6 guys ( who are NOT our top 3 guys ) to not have subpar seasons. If even 1 of those guys have an off year, it could affect the chemistry of the entire team.

And God forbid if Horford or Millsap or Teague goes down. The team may not be talented enough to survive the loss of that player.