Five reasons the Hawks could win 50 games

[Guest]

1. The Boss is back

Al Horford will be 100 percent healthy after missing 53 games last season with a torn right pectoral muscle. The two-time All-Star center was injured 29 games into the season with the second torn pectoral of his career. At the time of his injury, Horford led the Hawks with 18.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Those are big numbers to get back.

Without Horford, the Hawks filled in with a committee of Elton Brand, Pero Antić, Gustavo Ayón and eventually bought out the contract of second-round pick Mike Muscala from Spain. Mike Scott was even forced to play minutes at center at one point with Antić and Ayón injured.

Through the first 29 games with Horford, the Hawks were 16-13 and were third in the Eastern Conference. After the injury, the Hawks went 22-31 (.415) the rest of the season and had losing streaks of eight, six and six games.

Coach Mike Budenholzer will have greater flexibility with his lineup with Horford available to play 33 minutes per night.

The presence of Horford also will be an advantage for point guard Jeff Teague. The two have developed a strong pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop game in their five seasons together. Teague struggled immediately after the loss of Horford until he stepped forward in the basket-attacking aspect of his game. With Horford as an available option, it will make Teague’s speed and quickness a bigger issue for the opposition.

Finally, Budenholzer looks forward to the return of Horford’s versatility. The Hawks are not big in the post, with Horford only 6-foot-10. However, he can do things with his speed, ballhandling and shooting touch to counter a height disadvantage. In Budenholzer’s system of pushing the ball up court, having Horford start a break after a rebound can be a good thing.

2. Depth

The Hawks did little in free agency, but the acquisitions were strategic. The signings of Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore will help on the wing behind DeMarre Carroll, especially on defense.

The Hawks added to their advantage of having frontcourt players who can stretch the floor with draft pick Adreian Payne. The 6-10 forward/center can play with his back to or away from the basket. Payne is still learning and may not be a regular part of the rotation, at least early, but he can rebound and use his length.

The Hawks became deeper with the return of two injured players. In addition to Horford, John Jenkins returns after missing much of last season with a back injury that eventually required surgery. The former first-round pick gives the Hawks another shooter off the bench.

The Hawks will enter the season with a maximum roster of 15 players. Budenholzer likely will use a rotation that goes 10 deep. It will be a luxury when an injury hits to have a capable replacement readily available.

“The depth and the size on the wing became an area that we could address (last offseason),” Budenholzer said. “At times when we subbed last year, we got pretty small. They were all good players, but you could argue we were a little small. Getting a little more depth and a little bigger is how I would characterize (the offseason goal).”

3. Defense

The Hawks ranked 15th in the NBA in points allowed last season (101.5 per game). Getting better on defense has been much of Budenholzer’s mantra in the offseason and training camp.

The additions of Sefolosha and Bazemore will help. Both can come in to relieve Carroll, who often had the task of guarding the opposition’s best non-big man. At times, the energy expended to do so had an impact on his offense and defense.

Muscala and Payne both add rim protectors that the Hawks lacked for much of last season.

Budenholzer wants to be better on defense as it will lead to easier baskets in transition, an area in which the Hawks can use their speed and versatility to excel.

4. Another year in the system

As a first-year head coach, Budenholzer installed new offensive and defensive systems. The work took some time to take hold. The offense, in particular, is predicated on multiple reads and movement. The more familiar the system is, the more comfortable the players are and the more they play on instinct.

The other advantage for the Hawks in this regard is that they return 13 players from last season. Training camp was not spent learning the system, but perfecting it.

According to NBA.com, the Hawks rank fourth in the NBA in returning minutes. With the 13 returners, the Hawks total 17,058 minutes, which is 86 percent from last season. Only the Spurs (97.4 percent), Trail Blazers (90) and Thunder (88.5) return more minutes.

5. The Eastern Conference

The competition in the East is not significantly better. Yes, the Cavaliers are an NBA title contender with the additions of LeBron James and Kevin Love. The Bulls have added Pau Gasol and will be near the top of the standings if Derrick Rose remains healthy. After that, does any team scare? The Hawks are in the mix with the Heat, Wizards, Raptors, Nets, Hornets, Pacers and Pistons.

With the loss of James, an aging Heat team will take a step back. The Pacers will be without Paul George and Lance Stephenson. The Knicks did not make a significant addition besides a head coach. The Wizards will play without Bradley Beal to start the season. The addition of Stephenson may hurt the Hornets’ chemistry. The Celtics, Magic, Bucks and 76ers are well behind.

The Hawks were 28-24 in the conference last season. There is substantial room for improvement.

Conclusion: If each of the above reasons means only two more wins this season, the Hawks would be a 48-win team. That is knocking on the door to the significant 50-win total. Consider the Suns won 48 games last season and finished ninth in the heralded Western Conference, a game behind the Mavericks for the final playoff spot.

http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/basketball/five-reasons-the-hawks-could-win-50-games/nhpzj/

[JETSET]

6.  Our schedule is far more easier this season than it was last year.  Also, we have the least amount of games where we face an opponent who is on more rest than us than any other team in the league this season.  Here's a copy of a post I previously made on a betting forum:

 

This post will analyze this year's schedule vs. last year's schedule.  I will focus on b2b's and 4 game in 5 night stretches.  The Hawks were thoroughly screwed by the NBA with their schedule last year and their schedule seems to be much more favorable this season.  I believe that the difference in ease of schedule will amount to 3-5 wins added for the Hawks this season.

 

Last year's schedule included 21 sets of back2back games with 12 of these coming against an opponent who did not play the day before.  It also included 5 4game/5night stretches.  In late November, the NBA really screwed the Hawks with a 4game/5night stretch, two days off, then another 4game/5night stretch.  The results of these games make it clear that this stretch really wore down the team. 

 

Here's the list of 4game/5night stretches from last year

11/19-11/23 - @ Mia, vs Det, off, @ Det, vs Bos

 

11/26-11/30 - vs Orl, @ Hou, off, vs Dal, @ Wash

 

2/18-2/22    - @ Indy, vs Wash, off, @ Det, vs NYK

 

3/23-3/27     - @ Tor, vs Phx, off, @ Minn, vs Port

 

4/8-4/12       - vs Det, vs Bos, off, @ Brk, vs Mia

 

You will notice that the majority of these stretches were loaded with playoff teams and alternated home and away and included lots of travel.  We had 7 wins and 13 losses in these 20 games last season.

 

This year's schedule includes19 back2backs with 9 games against opponents who had the previous day off.  It also only includes 3 stretches of 4games/5nights.

 

This year's 4game/5night stretches.

11/25-11/29  - @ Wash, vs Tor, off, vs N.O.P., vs Char

 

1/13-1/17      - @ Phi, @ Bos, off, @ Tor, @ Chi

 

3/27-3/31      - vs Mia, @ Char, off, vs Milw, @ Det

 

You will notice that the 1/13-1/17 stretch is the only one that includes a lot of travel and it features two of the worst teams in the league on the first half of it. On the third leg, Charlotte is basically next door to Atlanta and they have the following day off.  There's basically no travel involved until they go to Detroit for the last game of the stretch.

Edited October 24, 2014 by JETSET

[Guest]

6.  Our schedule is far more easier this season than it was last year.  Also, we have the least amount of games where we face an opponent who is on more rest than us than any other team in the league this season.  Here's a copy of a post I previously made on a betting forum:

 

This post will analyze this year's schedule vs. last year's schedule.  I will focus on b2b's and 4 game in 5 night stretches.  The Hawks were thoroughly screwed by the NBA with their schedule last year and their schedule seems to be much more favorable this season.  I believe that the difference in ease of schedule will amount to 3-5 wins added for the Hawks this season.

 

Last year's schedule included 21 sets of back2back games with 12 of these coming against an opponent who did not play the day before.  It also included 5 4game/5night stretches.  In late November, the NBA really screwed the Hawks with a 4game/5night stretch, two days off, then another 4game/5night stretch.  The results of these games make it clear that this stretch really wore down the team. 

 

Here's the list of 4game/5night stretches from last year

11/19-11/23 - @ Mia, vs Det, off, @ Det, vs Bos

 

11/26-11/30 - vs Orl, @ Hou, off, vs Dal, @ Wash

 

2/18-2/22    - @ Indy, vs Wash, off, @ Det, vs NYK

 

3/23-3/27     - @ Tor, vs Phx, off, @ Minn, vs Port

 

4/8-4/12       - vs Det, vs Bos, off, @ Brk, vs Mia

 

You will notice that the majority of these stretches were loaded with playoff teams and alternated home and away and included lots of travel.  We had 7 wins and 13 losses in these 20 games last season.

 

This year's schedule includes19 back2backs with 9 games against opponents who had the previous day off.  It also only includes 3 stretches of 4games/5nights.

 

This year's 4game/5night stretches.

11/25-11/29  - @ Wash, vs Tor, off, vs N.O.P., vs Char

 

1/13-1/17      - @ Phi, @ Bos, off, @ Tor, @ Chi

 

3/27-3/31      - vs Mia, @ Char, off, vs Milw, @ Det

 

You will notice that the 1/13-1/17 stretch is the only one that includes a lot of travel and it features two of the worst teams in the league on the first half of it. On the third leg, Charlotte is basically next door to Atlanta and they have the following day off.  There's basically no travel involved until they go to Detroit for the last game of the stretch.

@JETSET That's some good info. Thanks.

[benhillboy]

We won 53 under Woody with Josh. By relativity, we should win about 100 with Bud and without Josh.

Seriously though, with optimum health we're gonna trash the East outside of the Bulls.

[DrReality]

We won 53 under Woody with Josh. By relativity, we should win about 100 with Bud and without Josh.

Seriously though, with optimum health we're gonna trash the East outside of the Bulls.

Coaching should get us a dozen wins

[thecampster]

7. Mike Freakin Scott.  Bud discovering Scott could play mid season (mostly by necessity) meant a ton of confidence for the kid and therefore a much improved offseason attitude.  Scott will give opponent benches fits.

[ViperXX79]

Playing in the East should be the only reason.

[TheTruth]

I don't think we will win 50, as the Cleveland Lebroniers and Chicago Roses will still be the class of the East. If we can stay healthy, 40-45 sounds about right. We do have a chance to surprise a bit in this weak East, so who knows. We will do tons better than the Falcons and underachieving Braves did, that's for sure.

[TheFuzz]

Honestly, fully healthy? I expect we will win 50-55 games. We've got it in us. If we win less than, say, 47, I'll be pretty disappointed.

[Nicholasp27]

I don't think we will win 50, as the Cleveland Lebroniers and Chicago Roses will still be the class of the East. If we can stay healthy, 40-45 sounds about right. We do have a chance to surprise a bit in this weak East, so who knows. We will do tons better than the Falcons and underachieving Braves did, that's for sure.

What do those two teams have to do with our record? We only play them a handful of games this year...it's how well we play against everyone else that determines our record

[ATLSmith]

I like #4 the best.  By mid-season this team should be a well oiled machine.