Nabisco Soft Chocolate Chip Cookies..

[macdaddy]

That's fine if the old Al was a good rebounder, good post scorer, and good defender. But he was never consistently a good one at any of those things. So to think after 2 season ending injuries that he'll all of a sudden be better at those things is a bit wishful.

He's essentially a great mid range shooter and he can still get it done in the PnR and PnP but but that's about all he will ever consistently give us.

 

He wasn't a great mid range shooter his first few years in the league so why did coaches make him an all star?   I think his past abilities to impact the game are being seriously underrated.   I mean it was Joe, Josh, Al.   How did we win so many games if Al was so all around average?  It wasn't like we had any other decent bigs on any of those teams.

[willthepureshooter]

Why are we knocking Al so much? He's had two single digit scoring games in the last 10. Duncan has had more than that. Our offense is built to get scoring from different people in different games depending on the matchup. Until we get the elusive 'star' we aren't going to have one guy going for 25 every game. And even then I kind of doubt it. Hawks win 6 out of 7 and we're bashing our most vocal leader?

First off, he's not a leader because leaders lead by example. Secondly, his post game is still the exact same after being in the league for 7 years. Thirdly, I'm point towards his half ass rebounding and defense. I don't give a damn about how many titty muscles you tear that shit doesn't effect you playing defense and rebounding. Did you see him get knocked to the floor by Jared Sullinger? Come on with the excuses. I can even remember Dennis saying in an interview that Horford s the first one to leave practice. He's not dedicated for some reason. Bud has snatched him out of the game early a couple of times because he was lazy and not boxing out.

[macdaddy]

First off, he's not a leader because leaders lead by example. Secondly, his post game is still the exact same after being in the league for 7 years. Thirdly, I'm point towards his half ass rebounding and defense. I don't give a damn about how many titty muscles you tear that shit doesn't effect you playing defense and rebounding. Did you see him get knocked to the floor by Jared Sullinger? Come on with the excuses. I can even remember Dennis saying in an interview that Horford s the first one to leave practice. He's not dedicated for some reason. Bud has snatched him out of the game early a couple of times because he was lazy and not boxing out.

 

No idea where this is coming from.   I think everyone on the team recognizes that Al is the only guy who is vocal and the only guy to call other guys out.   You think Brand is leading by example?   As AHF said he still trying to get in basketball shape.  Take a year off and see how quickly you get back to nba level.   

 

Since you guys are so hung up on his stats, he did play 29 games a year ago and averaged 18/8/2.5 in 33 minutes.   But you know that was a year ago so there is no way we could expect a 28 year old to return to that form.   Let's give up and get another 18/8 center in here.

[Admin]

IMO, Horford has always been a rock solid defender except when he has been physically overwhelmed at times by large bigs.  He also was pretty amazing in his ability to defend smaller forwards and guards for limited periods of time during switches.  For rebounding, he is a career 9.4 rpg guy.  That is pretty solid.  Only 10 other players have as many total and per game rebounds as Al since he was drafted even with the recent injuries.  

 

http://bkref.com/tiny/l0oCp

 

Rebounds per 100 possessions

2012 - 14.2 (15.7%)

2013 - 12.9 (14.8%)

2014 - 11.3 (13.1%)

 

Defensive Rating

2012 - 102

2013 - 104

2014 - 107

 

That's not an encouraging trend in either case.

[Admin]

No idea where this is coming from.   I think everyone on the team recognizes that Al is the only guy who is vocal and the only guy to call other guys out.   You think Brand is leading by example?   As AHF said he still trying to get in basketball shape.  Take a year off and see how quickly you get back to nba level.   

 

Since you guys are so hung up on his stats, he did play 29 games a year ago and averaged 18/8/2.5 in 33 minutes.   But you know that was a year ago so there is no way we could expect a 28 year old to return to that form.   Let's give up and get another 18/8 center in here.

 

I'd rather look at his career average of 14 points, 9 rebounds and 1 block instead of a 29 game sample. Now the year before that was a very good year for him but it's kind of an outlier in terms of rebounds as he went from 7 in 2011 to 10 in 2012 then back down to 8 in 2013.

 

Do you feel like 14/9/1 is worth of 12 million per year when considering he's had 2 major season ending injuries in the past 3 years?  

[Admin]

He wasn't a great mid range shooter his first few years in the league so why did coaches make him an all star?   I think his past abilities to impact the game are being seriously underrated.   I mean it was Joe, Josh, Al.   How did we win so many games if Al was so all around average?  It wasn't like we had any other decent bigs on any of those teams.

 

The All-Star defense is the worst argument you can make. You know full well that the C position, especially in the East, has been watered down for a long time now. It's the same reason that Millsap got in last year at PF. 

 

He has a career offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) of 114 and a career defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 104. So he's a plus as a player there's no doubt, but is he that much of a difference maker? 

 

In 2010 with Horford all season we won 44 games.

In 2011 without Horford for 71 games we won 40 games.

In 2012 with Horford all season we won 44 games. 

Last year we had him for 29 games and we were 16-13. 

 

So again I ask, does he really make that much of a difference? 

[Guest]

Bud says he's not yet back to 100%, so I'll reserve judgement on his performance thus far and leave it at that.

[macdaddy]

I'd rather look at his career average of 14 points, 9 rebounds and 1 block instead of a 29 game sample. Now the year before that was a very good year for him but it's kind of an outlier in terms of rebounds as he went from 7 in 2011 to 10 in 2012 then back down to 8 in 2013.

 

Do you feel like 14/9/1 is worth of 12 million per year when considering he's had 2 major season ending injuries in the past 3 years?  

 

Absolutely.  Who would give us his production (over his career not the last month) for 12 million a year?

The All-Star defense is the worst argument you can make. You know full well that the C position, especially in the East, has been watered down for a long time now. It's the same reason that Millsap got in last year at PF. 

 

He has a career offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) of 114 and a career defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 104. So he's a plus as a player there's no doubt, but is he that much of a difference maker? 

 

In 2010 with Horford all season we won 44 games.

In 2011 without Horford for 71 games we won 40 games.

In 2012 with Horford all season we won 44 games. 

Last year we had him for 29 games and we were 16-13. 

 

So again I ask, does he really make that much of a difference? 

 

Of course I do.   Do you think we would have beat the Pacers last year with Horford in the lineup.   I think he would have made a big difference.

[macdaddy]

This is also a remarkably similar argument to February of last year when the knock on Teague was he was sucking, he is not a special PG by any means, average at almost everything, and in fact there were a lot of stats thrown out about how Teague had actually stayed the same or gotten worse over the last 3 years.   So do we still feel the same about Teague?

[Admin]

Absolutely.  Who would give us his production (over his career not the last month) for 12 million a year?

 

Of course I do.   Do you think we would have beat the Pacers last year with Horford in the lineup.   I think he would have made a big difference.

 

That depends on being able to acquire someone. But there's plenty of guys out there who could get you close to those stats or better. 

 

Vucevic 19 / 12 / 1

Gortat 14 / 9 / 1.5

Hill 14 / 10 / 1

Hibbert 13 / 8 / 3

Kanter 14 / 7 / .5

Mozgoz 10 / 8 /1.5 (increase his usage to Al's)

 

Would we have beaten the Pacers? Yeah probably so. But if we'd have had Zaza instead of Antić we probably beat the Pacers. They weren't exactly playing well when we played them. 

[Admin]

This is also a remarkably similar argument to February of last year when the knock on Teague was he was sucking, he is not a special PG by any means, average at almost everything, and in fact there were a lot of stats thrown out about how Teague had actually stayed the same or gotten worse over the last 3 years.   So do we still feel the same about Teague?

 

Last year Teague was a top 20 PG, in the late teens overall. This year he's ranked anywhere from 8 to 12 in most ranking systems. Difference being with Teague is he's still young and improving and doesn't have 2 season ending injuries in the past 3 years on his body. You can't look at Al and think this is the 2010-2011 Al. He's not the same player that he was back then and he'll very likely never get back to that point. This is his 3rd straight year trending down and he's only getting older. 

[Duff_Man]

Another month or so and Al will be back to his old self. Will be nice for him to give some extra help to Paul Millsap who is the hardest working man in basketball right now.

[willthepureshooter]

No idea where this is coming from. I think everyone on the team recognizes that Al is the only guy who is vocal and the only guy to call other guys out. You think Brand is leading by example? As AHF said he still trying to get in basketball shape. Take a year off and see how quickly you get back to nba level.

Since you guys are so hung up on his stats, he did play 29 games a year ago and averaged 18/8/2.5 in 33 minutes. But you know that was a year ago so there is no way we could expect a 28 year old to return to that form. Let's give up and get another 18/8 center in here.

When has he been the most vocal and started calling out players? Lol. The Last time I checked, he missed the past two seasons. Was he leading via Skype or something? One thing I can say is, Smoove made ALs defense look good.

[AHF]

This is his 3rd straight year trending down and he's only getting older. 

 

Kind hard for me to agree with that.  

 

3 years ago he set his career high rpg, career high DWS and 2nd best DRtg.  The only "down" part of his game that year was his offense (2nd worst TS% of his career).  

 

Last year he started off down but was at the offensive peak of his career with career bests in TS% and PER.  He was down in rebounding but his defense wasn't bad (3rd best DRtg).  Had he not been injured and just continued he would have been an All-Star and had a good season.

 

This year is the truly "down" year for me.  But even now he is putting up a 20.2 PER (3rd best of his career and driven primarily by his still very efficient offense) and I am not ready to say he can't come back and return to his normally much more aggressive rebounding and defense.

 

On the medical side, I don't know enough to say whether he is damaged goods or he suffered a couple of non-repeating, outlier injuries.  People have made both claims on the Squawk, but I don't think people's opinions mean too much when they aren't a treating doctor.  I do think that absent an injury recurring and assuming normal recovery, Horford's rebounding and defense will get better as the year goes along and will be materially better next year when he has had a full offseason to prepare for the year.

Edited December 4, 2014 by AHF

[macdaddy]

When has he been the most vocal and started calling out players? Lol. The Last time I checked, he missed the past two seasons. Was he leading via Skype or something? One thing I can say is, Smoove made ALs defense look good.

 

One example

 

 

According to Teague, Budenholzer asked for two main things this summer. He wanted to see him finish his cuts on offense and to become a more vocal leader. The latter is especially important. After years of being tutored by Mike Bibby, Al Horford, Josh Smith and Kirk Hinrich, as named by Teague, it is now his turn.

[Admin]

Kind hard for me to agree with that.  

 

3 years ago he set his career high rpg, career high DWS and 2nd best DRtg.  The only "down" part of his game that year was his offense (2nd worst TS% of his career).  

 

Last year he started off down but was at the offensive peak of his career with career bests in TS% and PER.  He was down in rebounding but his defense wasn't bad (3rd best DRtg).  Had he not been injured and just continued he would have been an All-Star and had a good season.

 

This year is the truly "down" year for me.  But even now he is putting up a 20.2 PER (3rd best of his career and driven primarily by his still very efficient offense) and I am not ready to say he can't come back and return to his normally much more aggressive rebounding and defense.

 

On the medical side, I don't know enough to say whether he is damaged goods or he suffered a couple of non-repeating, outlier injuries.  People have made both claims on the Squawk, but I don't think people's opinions mean too much when they aren't a treating doctor.  I do think that absent an injury recurring, Horford's rebounding and defense will get better as the year goes along and will be materially better next year when he has had a full offseason to prepare for the year.

 

Of course you can cherry pick stats that make him look good or bad. I'm using a pretty simple offensive and defensive rating, points per 100 possessions and using his rebound %. Agree with that or not, it's a fact that he's gotten progressively worse in those areas each of the past 2+ seasons. 

 

You know it's a dog that you're fighting for when you're bringing up PER and All-Star appearance in his defense. 

 

Horford is VERY lucky that he's a terrific mid-range shooter, because he provides very little else. And luckily for him his FG% boosts stats that you're relying heavily on here in his defense. 

[AHF]

Of course you can cherry pick stats that make him look good or bad. I'm using a pretty simple offensive and defensive rating, points per 100 possessions and using his rebound %. Agree with that or not, it's a fact that he's gotten progressively worse in those areas each of the past 2+ seasons. 

 

You know it's a dog that you're fighting for when you're bringing up PER and All-Star appearance in his defense. 

 

Horford is VERY lucky that he's a terrific mid-range shooter, because he provides very little else. And luckily for him his FG% boosts stats that you're relying heavily on here in his defense. 

 

My problem with your math is simple.  First, you are taking his career peak season as a rebounder and defender and using that as the basis for showing decline and you are showing decline during a total period of 45 games, the last 16 of which have been during a period when he is still recovering from a serious injury.  

 

Second, you are cherry picking two stats and focusing exclusively on those (DRTG and RB).  Using rebounding and rating stat from near career high numbers, you can argue Paul Millsap has been in decline the last 3 years.  Here are his numbers compared to 2011-12:

 

2012-13  ORTG -1% / RB Rate -13%

2013-14  ORTG -7% / RB Rate -9%

2014-15  ORTG -6% / RB Rate -16%

 

It is amazing the guy is still employed!

[Admin]

My problem with your math is simple.  First, you are taking his career peak season as a rebounder and defender and using that as the basis for showing decline and you are showing decline during a total period of 45 games, the last 16 of which have been during a period when he is still recovering from a serious injury.  

 

Second, you are cherry picking two stats and focusing exclusively on those (DRTG and RB).  Using rebounding and rating stat from near career high numbers, you can argue Paul Millsap has been in decline the last 3 years.  Here are his numbers compared to 2011-12:

 

2012-13  ORTG -1% / RB Rate -13%

2013-14  ORTG -7% / RB Rate -9%

2014-15  ORTG -6% / RB Rate -16%

 

It is amazing the guy is still employed!

 

I think it's kind of important to start with his career peak, considering he's gone down the past 2.5 seasons. Regardless of the # of games played, it also matches up with his major injuries. You can believe that it doesn't physically or mentally play a part in his decline but I completely disagree. 

 

Looking at the same numbers for Millsap last year vs this year leaves me wondering what point you're trying to make here if you throw out irrelevant data from him being on a completely different team.

 

Rebounding %

2013 - 14.6%

2014 - 13.9%

 

Defensive Rating

2013 - 102

2014 - 102

 

So while Millsap is pretty much the same player as last year Horford is clearly not the same player.  I don't have a problem accepting that Horford is past his peak, just as I don't have a problem accepting that for Millsap. I'm not sure why you guys have trouble accepting that. 

[AHF]

I think it's kind of important to start with his career peak, considering he's gone down the past 2.5 seasons. Regardless of the # of games played, it also matches up with his major injuries. You can believe that it doesn't physically or mentally play a part in his decline but I completely disagree. 

 

Looking at the same numbers for Millsap last year vs this year leaves me wondering what point you're trying to make here if you throw out irrelevant data from him being on a completely different team.

 

Rebounding %

2013 - 14.6%

2014 - 13.9%

 

Defensive Rating

2013 - 102

2014 - 102

 

So while Millsap is pretty much the same player as last year Horford is clearly not the same player.  I don't have a problem accepting that Horford is past his peak, just as I don't have a problem accepting that for Millsap. I'm not sure why you guys have trouble accepting that. 

 

Let's find something we agree on here.  You keep saying 2.5 years but you are talking about 46 games.  At most you should be saying he has declined over 1.25 years.  Right?  If 2012-13 was his career high (and was an improvement over the prior year) then that isn't one of the "2.5" years of decline.  That leaves you talking about a decline last season and the first 17 games of this season. 

 

Do we agree on that or are we missing eachother on that basic point?

[Admin]

Let's find something we agree on here.  You keep saying 2.5 years but you are talking about 46 games.  At most you should be saying he has declined over 1.25 years.  Right?  If 2012-13 was his career high (and was an improvement over the prior year) then that isn't one of the "2.5" years of decline.  That leaves you talking about a decline last season and the first 17 games of this season. 

 

Do we agree on that or are we missing eachother on that basic point?

 

Fair enough and a good correction, 1.5 NBA seasons of declining (2013, 2014) since his peak season. But I'm still talking about a 28 year old guy coming off of 2 major injuries.

 

The difference is that I believe 2012 was his peak for his career and you don't believe that will be the case. Correct?