Does 1 One Legged 3 Warrant this Type Confidence?!

[Plainview1981]

It's amazing the level of hatred for a guy who was our 4th string C last year and who makes peanuts for us. But let's just give our highest paid player a pass on how awful he's been. 

 

Sorry but we didn't lose the Lakers game because of Pero missing a last second 3pt shot, we missed because our starting C has become a nancy who can't rebound or defend and still can't score in the paint. 

 

Pero is not an NBA player. He does NOT belong in this league.

[AHF]

So now you're just arguing to argue. Got it.

 

Just FYI though, 50/50 is pretty damn good for 3pt shooters. 

 

The 50/50 is not important.  The point was that Pero has shot a TON of 3's because he has had a sizable career.  He has never been a good 3pt shooter over a full season at any level of the sport.  However, Pero has undoubtably had stretches where he converted 4 of 7 shots or even better during that long career.  The fact that he hit one or two more shots than you would expect out of 7 total attempts does nothing for me.  That 4 of 7 pulled his total 3pt shooting up to like 25% for the season.  There to, however, I don't really care that he is only shooting the 20%s.  He has a long track record of shooting the equivalent of like 32%.  I trust that track record much more than I do his 6-24 start to the season.  

 

The sizable track record says he is a marginal 3pt shooter and I view it as a failure of our coaching staff if the best play they can draw up is a wide open shot by Pero as far as the first or second option on a play goes.  A wide open three for Pero is only slightly better than drawing up a wide open jumper for Smoove who shot a sparkling 28.3% in Atlanta on 3's but nevertheless won a few games by hitting some big ones among the misses.  Both of those guys will hit some wide open shots but they will miss enough that they don't deserve to be a second option.

Edited November 20, 2014 by AHF

[TheNorthCydeRises]

He was the backup option on the play, they doubled Teague and left Antić wide open. He's a good 3pt shooter and that's his spot. He's 4-8 from that spot this year so that's about as good of a shot as you're going to get, especially with him being wide open.

In Antić's last 30 games played ( 9 this season ... 7 playoff games ... last 14 games of last season ) ... Pero is shooting 20 - 102 from 3 point range.

That's 19.8%

Even Josh Smith can say that he shot better than that.

That dude is NOT a NBA 3 point caliber shooter.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

And it was 7.7 seconds left on the clock

[macdaddy]

The 4-7 bit doesn't mean much to me.  I can flip a coin and get heads 4 times in a row but it doesn't mean I'm better than 50/50 on getting heads the next time.  I don't have any confidence that Pero has changed his 3pt shot so that shots other than in the corner are going to convert at anything better than very low 30%s.

 

On a play with 3 seconds left, I would want Pero to be the safety valve if he is the game at all (better to pick from Sap, Horf and Scott).  3 seconds is plenty of time to receive the ball and dish to someone wide open if that is what presents itself but I would want a better look than that and certainly have several guys running off screens to get a shot by one of our other weapons.  I would LOVE it if other teams ran players for similar guys instead of their best offensive players like Dallas giving a wide open 3 to Al Farouq Aminu or Golden State giving Iggy a wide open 3 instead of looking to someone else first.  I assume other teams react the same way when they see us run a play where Pero is a top option instead of a safety valve.

 

 

You keep reaming Pero for shooting 33% on 3s.   You do realize that Sap is a career 33%, Scott is worse, and Horford is slightly better but has taken very few in his career?

[AHF]

You keep reaming Pero for shooting 33% on 3s.   You do realize that Sap is a career 33%, Scott is worse, and Horford is slightly better but has taken very few in his career?

 

I am not reaming Pero.  I am saying he should never be a second option.

 

Pero Antić ranks 12th on the team in TS% this year which is a good representation of his overall scoring efficiency.  Last season he ranked 9th.  The guy is not much of a scorer and if all he can do is shoot 3's then a 33% rate is good enough to be a part of the rotation but not good enough to be a featured option on key plays.  

 

Do you see the difference between these two statements?

 

#1  Pero is a loser and should never play because his .535 TS% and 31.8% 3pt% are so bad that we should never let him touch the ball.  When he is on the floor, he is so bad that he should just pass the ball to someone else who can actually do something with it.  I can't understand why the guy hasn't been cut.

 

#2  Pero's .535 TS% and 31.8% 3pt% are not good enough to justify making him the second option on a key play when we have Korver's elite shooting, Horford's elite shooting, Teague's excellent penetrating ability, Scott's .560 TS% (last two seasons), Sap's all-around game, and even DMC's significantly superior overall and 3pt shooting.  Given that range of options, making a Pero 3 the second option on a play is a fail.

 

#1 is reaming Pero.  #2 is my position.

 

Bottomline:  Play Pero as part of the rotation and feature your better offensive players as the top options on key plays.  Use him to stretch the floor and as a safety valve but don't run sets where it defaults to him when the first option isn't open.

[macdaddy]

I am not reaming Pero.  I am saying he should never be a second option.

 

Pero Antić ranks 12th on the team in TS% this year which is a good representation of his overall scoring efficiency.  Last season he ranked 9th.  The guy is not much of a scorer and if all he can do is shoot 3's then a 33% rate is good enough to be a part of the rotation but not good enough to be a featured option on key plays.  

 

Do you see the difference between these two statements?

 

#1  Pero is a loser and should never play because his .535 TS% and 31.8% 3pt% are so bad that we should never let him touch the ball.  When he is on the floor, he is so bad that he should just pass the ball to someone else who can actually do something with it.  I can't understand why the guy hasn't been cut.

 

#2  Pero's .535 TS% and 31.8% 3pt% are not good enough to justify making him the second option on a key play when we have Korver's elite shooting, Horford's elite shooting, Teague's excellent penetrating ability, Scott's .560 TS% (last two seasons), Sap's all-around game, and even DMC's significantly superior overall and 3pt shooting.  Given that range of options, making a Pero 3 the second option on a play is a fail.

 

#1 is reaming Pero.  #2 is my position.

 

Bottomline:  Play Pero as part of the rotation and feature your better offensive players as the top options on key plays.  Use him to stretch the floor and as a safety valve but don't run sets where it defaults to him when the first option isn't open.

 

You didn't address my point which was why are Milsap, Scott, and Horford better 2nd options than Pero when they are equal or worse 3 point shooters.

[AHF]

You didn't address my point which was why are Milsap, Scott, and Horford better 2nd options than Pero when they are equal or worse 3 point shooters.

 

Because they can score in other ways.  The NBA isn't a 3pt shooting contest.  If it was, though, then Korver, DMC, Scott, Teague, Sap and Jenkins should all clearly be preferred options.  

 

Horford has been an elite jump shooter in the past so I am not sure I wouldn't rank him higher as well given that he has just started shooting the 3 based on his elite mid-range track record.  Either way, he can drive and shoot from other areas MUCH better.

 

Sap is outshooting Pero .371 to .250 this season on 3's and outshot him .358 to .327 last season.  Those aren't comparable numbers.

 

Scott was worse than Pero last season but is a young guy who is capable of much bigger improvements than Pero considering that last season was his first shooting the 3 while Pero has been doing it for a decade.  This season Scott is hitting .394 compared to Pero's .250.  I expect those won't be as big a difference by the end of the season but I do think Scott will improve materially from last year.  For Scott, it is more about his ability to score much more efficiently in other ways.  Pero hasn't been that close on an overall scoring efficiency to Scott (roughly .540 to .560).

[macdaddy]

Because they can score in other ways.  The NBA isn't a 3pt shooting contest.  If it was, though, then Korver, DMC, Scott, Teague, Sap and Jenkins should all clearly be preferred options.  

 

Horford has been an elite jump shooter in the past so I am not sure I wouldn't rank him higher as well given that he has just started shooting the 3 based on his elite mid-range track record.  Either way, he can drive and shoot from other areas MUCH better.

 

Sap is outshooting Pero .371 to .250 this season on 3's and outshot him .358 to .327 last season.  Those aren't comparable numbers.

 

Scott was worse than Pero last season but is a young guy who is capable of much bigger improvements than Pero considering that last season was his first shooting the 3 while Pero has been doing it for a decade.  This season Scott is hitting .394 compared to Pero's .250.  I expect those won't be as big a difference by the end of the season but I do think Scott will improve materially from last year.  For Scott, it is more about his ability to score much more efficiently in other ways.  Pero hasn't been that close on an overall scoring efficiency to Scott (roughly .540 to .560).

 

I'm confused.  Aren't we talking about Pero's missed 3 to tie the game with the clock running out.   Why does 'scoring in other ways' matter?   Someone had to take a 3 at that point and of those 4 guys I don't see anyone as being clearly better than the other.

[macdaddy]

 

 

A wide open three for Pero is only slightly better than drawing up a wide open jumper for Smoove who shot a sparkling 28.3% in Atlanta

 

 

Sap is outshooting Pero .371 to .250 this season on 3's and outshot him .358 to .327 last season.  Those aren't comparable numbers.

 

 

So Pero's 33% is only slightly better than Josh's 28%, but Sap's 36% is way better than Pero's 33%?   Fuzzy math.

[Guest]

Since we are discussing Pero.....of players having played at least 6 games,  Pero has the highest defensive rating, followed by Thabo.

Guess who's last on the list....drum roll please....Al Horford. 

Al needs to pick it up.

[Admin]

In Antić's last 30 games played ( 9 this season ... 7 playoff games ... last 14 games of last season ) ... Pero is shooting 20 - 102 from 3 point range.

That's 19.8%

Even Josh Smith can say that he shot better than that.

That dude is NOT a NBA 3 point caliber shooter.

 

OMG I'm tired of repeating myself. THIS YEAR (which is all that counts) he was 4-7 from that spot. How difficult is it to comprehend that fact people? 

[Admin]

And it was 7.7 seconds left on the clock

 

I'm referring to when Antić took the shot. There was 3ish seconds left on the clock. I can't remember what was left when we inbounded the ball but I'll take your word that it was 7.7.  If that's the case then maybe some of you should blame Bud and not Pero since all Pero did was take the shot he was supposed to take. If you don't like the play then go cry about Bud's play call. 

[Plainview1981]

OMG I'm tired of repeating myself. THIS YEAR (which is all that counts) he was 4-7 from that spot. How difficult is it to comprehend that fact people? 

 

That's a really small sample size and so it does not make me feel better personally. 

Edited November 21, 2014 by Hotlanta1981

[Guest]

The whole season so far is a small sample size - so all the huffing and puffing about stats are really pointless.

[Plainview1981]

The whole season so far is a small sample size - so all the huffing and puffing about stats are really pointless.

 

The problem is that this is basically the same team we had last year. And even before Horf went down the team was only mediocre.

[Guest]

The whole season so far is a small sample size - so all the huffing and puffing about stats are really pointless.

 

See, that right there is why you are immune from being banned.

 

I'm immune too but it's for a different reason. {shakes fist at computer screen}

[AHF]

So Pero's 33% is only slightly better than Josh's 28%, but Sap's 36% is way better than Pero's 33%?   Fuzzy math.

 

Not really.  You need at least a 50% TS% to be marginally OK in my mind.  A 36% 3pt shot translates to a respectable .540 TS%.

 

Pero's 31.8% 3pt % translates into a deficient .477 TS%.  Josh's is also deficient.   Both are suboptimal but Josh's is worse.  Sap's shot is a fine one.

[AHF]

I'm referring to when Antić took the shot. There was 3ish seconds left on the clock. I can't remember what was left when we inbounded the ball but I'll take your word that it was 7.7.  If that's the case then maybe some of you should blame Bud and not Pero since all Pero did was take the shot he was supposed to take. If you don't like the play then go cry about Bud's play call. 

 

You realize that was what I have been doing right?  The discussion on Pero is why it is a problem for Bud to draw up a play that should go to Pero as the #2 option.  My posts have been focused on the fact that the play had Pero as too high a priority.

[AHF]

The whole season so far is a small sample size - so all the huffing and puffing about stats are really pointless.

 

Agreed.  That is why I have primarily looked at last year plus this season which is a much more meaningful sample size and given a narrative where I thought there was something more going on (i.e., my confidence in Mike Scott being better than his % over that time).