Does 1 One Legged 3 Warrant this Type Confidence?!

[Guest]

Since we are discussing Pero.....of players having played at least 6 games,  Pero has the highest defensive rating, followed by Thabo.

Guess who's last on the list....drum roll please....Al Horford. 

Al needs to pick it up.

Whoasaywhahuhhowsthat?!?!?

Naw, that can't be because I heard all the advanced metrics show he sucks.

I like that we have discussion on the board, but are we really complaining that Pero gave us only a 30-50% chance of tying the game up while our alternative options are around 36-55%¿?¿? We are bickering over 6% just to tie the game up, which moves down to 3% if we talk about winning because of overtime. Meaning an event that happens one time in twenty chances. Or in other words, not that big of a deal.

[AHF]

Whoasaywhahuhhowsthat?!?!?

Naw, that can't be because I heard all the advanced metrics show he sucks.

I like that we have discussion on the board, but are we really complaining that Pero gave us only a 30-50% chance of tying the game up while our alternative options are around 36-55%¿?¿? We are bickering over 6% just to tie the game up, which moves down to 3% if we talk about winning because of overtime. Meaning an event that happens one time in twenty chances. Or in other words, not that big of a deal.

 

By that rationale, there isn't much difference between having Josh Smith (28%) and Steve Smith (35.8%) shooting the 3.  That is a 7.8% difference which moves down to 3.9% with overtime.  Josh Smith, Steve Smith...eh.  

 

BTW - Pero's man defense and his ability to passively stretch the floor are his biggest assets.  His D is the reason he is getting minutes over Moose, Payne, and Scott.  And, of course, his D is irrelevant for purposes of whether he should be a high priority option on offense.  Nobody ever argued to give Deke more offensive freedom because of his shot-blocking.  Pero's D is relevant to the people who say he is no good and shouldn't play but the discussion on shooting %s doesn't really touch that one.

[AHF]

The Hawks need every edge they can get.  A bunch of small 5% decisions can roll up to winning 5% more of your games versus 50% and that can be a spot or two difference in playoff seeding.  It is why the teams that maximize their record are usually organized, disciplined and are targeted to utilize their talent in the best position to succeed.

[Guest]

By that rationale, there isn't much difference between having Josh Smith (28%) and Steve Smith (35.8%) shooting the 3.  That is a 7.8% difference which moves down to 3.9% with overtime.  Josh Smith, Steve Smith...eh.

That is about right. I don't have the numbers in front of me, nor am I going to hunt them down, but it's also a wide open look as opposed to a contested shot. So saying that Pero shoots 30% isn't really a fair statement as I bet Pero shoots a higher percentage when he is wide open. Then go down the list of other options available at the time.

But yeah, a 5% difference on one possession isn't a big deal. Now, I think you are being a little disingenuous to think that this is a 5% (or 2.5%...whatever) swing from the start of the game, going from a 50-50 chance to a 55-45 chance...that is simply not true. A game probability versus a possession probability are starkly different. A 1% change in winning a game that encompasses the entire game actually is huge. But a 1% change on one possession? Not as big of an issue.

[Admin]

You realize that was what I have been doing right?  The discussion on Pero is why it is a problem for Bud to draw up a play that should go to Pero as the #2 option.  My posts have been focused on the fact that the play had Pero as too high a priority.

 

That may be true for you but I'd venture to say most are anti-Pero and not anti-Bud. 

 

But where we'll disagree is that I have zero problem with Pero taking that shot. He was 4-7 from that spot, was 1-1 from that spot in the closing seconds of a game/OT and was wide open. I don't know what the probability of him making that shot considering all of that but it's gotta be pretty good. 

 

My only issue was that Scott should have been in the game along with Korver and Millsap.