Official Game Thread: Hawks - Raptors

[lethalweapon3]

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

~lw3

[NBASupes]

Once again, we get Al going on offense, it gets in the way of Sap. We get Sap going, it gets in the way of Al. Al is clearly the better player. Al needs to stay, play PF and we need to trade Sap for a legit center. We seen this with Rudy Gay, Dwight Howard and Anthony Davis. Fit can improve a player far more than talent if the fit has talent.

Edited November 27, 2014 by nbasupes40retired

[Admin]

Once again, we get Al going on offense, it gets in the way of Sap. We get Sap going, it gets in the way of Al. Al is clearly the better player. Al needs to stay, play PF and we need to trade Sap for a legit center. We seen this with Rudy Gay, Dwight Howard and Anthony Davis. Fit can improve a player far more than talent if the fit has talent.

About as clear as mud. Sorry but there's not a chance in hell that a guy who can barely score without a wide open mid range jump shot is better than a vastly more versatile scorer and better rebounder. You're entitled to your opinion but it's flawed and wrong.

You're also wrong that they can't play well at the same time. They just haven't had enough time playing together. This is what the 45th or something game over 2 seasons that our best 3 have played together and only 13th this season. It's going to take some time. And it's going to take a good defending and rebounding specialist to mix in with the 2 of them. Hopefully that guy is Payne.

[NBASupes]

About as clear as mud. Sorry but there's not a chance in hell that a guy who can barely score without a wide open mid range jump shot is better than a vastly more versatile scorer and better rebounder. You're entitled to your opinion but it's flawed and wrong.

You're also wrong that they can't play well at the same time. They just haven't had enough time playing together. This is what the 45th or something game over 2 seasons that our best 3 have played together and only 13th this season. It's going to take some time. And it's going to take a good defending and rebounding specialist to mix in with the 2 of them. Hopefully that guy is Payne.

You just somehow forgot to mention how Horf is elite at movement but that's okay. I guess is offense was simply versatile scoring compared to movement and efficent scoring, J.R. Smith would be a better scorer than Reggie Miller but he's not.

Sap and Horf are like equals on the boards in ideal situations. Both are 9-10 RPG players in the ideal place. Saying one is better than the other isn't true.

They can't play well together. Too small on D and Sap doesn't do good at what Horf is weaker at unlike Smoove on D. Offensively, they score from many of the same spots even those Sap is more of a natural scorer while Horf is more about movement and taking quality shots. They get in each other's way. We seen this story before. Look at Lou last year. Look at Smoove in Detroit. How many games do you need to see when a duo doesn't fit? I don't to be frank. No one does. Payne is a nonfactor this season. Maybe next yr but Sap will likely be long gone next year if not by the deadline so we will likely have no other option.

Edited November 27, 2014 by nbasupes40retired

[Admin]

Elite at movement. Wth is that supposed to mean? And is it supposed to suggest that Millsap isn't? Cause 'impact wise' Millsap is simply better.

Yes saying Millsap is the better rebounder is correct. Go look at their rebound %'s. Millsap has 25 more rebounds this year in the same amount of games.

Millsap scores more, has almost 4 times as many steals, only .4 less blocks despite being shorter, has the highest VORP on the team and even costs 2.5 million less.

You can hate on him all you want but the only thing Al has on him is the very good mid-range jumper.

It's gonna break your heart when Millsap is brought back next year and when they decide to trade Al instead.

[NBASupes]

Elite at movement. Wth is that supposed to mean? And is it supposed to suggest that Millsap isn't? Cause 'impact wise' Millsap is simply better.

Yes saying Millsap is the better rebounder is correct. Go look at their rebound %'s. Millsap has 25 more rebounds this year in the same amount of games.

Millsap scores more, has almost 4 times as many steals, only .4 less blocks despite being shorter, has the highest VORP on the team and even costs 2.5 million less.

You can hate on him all you want but the only thing Al has on him is the very good mid-range jumper.

It's gonna break your heart when Millsap is brought back next year and when they decide to trade Al instead.

Understanding how to roll, how to cut, how to play off of screens, how to get open, understanding where to set a screen for you and the handler. It takes high BBIQ, agility, feel for the game and to perfect it in the NBA, it takes athletic ability.

Millsap isn't a movement player. He doesn't really like to move when off the ball. He like to put himself in position to get the ball and do the rest himself.

Impact wise Horford is much better. Not even comparable in my opinion or any true NBA head opinion. Thinking Sap has more impact is like those guys we used to have here who swore Smoove was more valuable than Horford and their used to be more than a few at one time. Now it's easy to throw Smoove under the bus but back then, it wasn't the case.

Horford's rebounding took a plunge due to him coming back from his injury and now he has been consistent on the boards or either boxing out, clearing out the paint for others like Sap, DMC, Korver and Mack to get boards.

Look at the numbers. per36 since Al has only played 29 MPG to Sap's 35MPG Al just about has better advanced and true numbers in every sense outside of steals, FTA's and rebounding while losing in FG%, WS, PER, AST, BLK, AST/TO, TO, ORtG, WS/48 and out of position the whole time. Sap gets dominated in many categories as well and this was Al without a training camp, preseason and he wasn't himself at first but now... No comparison. Horford is much better as he is. We all know Horford is a much better player than Millsap.

Millsap might be 2.5 million less but that's for this year and he's not a center. No one is going to pay him and he's not a big 3 piece. Jeff is more of that Jeff isn't. Horf can be useful out of position and misused but not Sap.

Overall, I would like Marc Gasol as would everyone then I would like Greg Monroe or Roy Hibbert. Not too high on Al Jefferson simply because you have to build your offense around him and he is a ball stopper. I tried telling northcyde that but assumed I was wrong and all behold, Charlotte tries to change it up and their 4-12. It's hard and near impossible to win with Jefferson unless it's his show. They are missing McBob as well which doesn't help.

Not high on Millsap. I think he is a very good offensive player and an average defensive player. He's undersized and unless you have a true really good center beside him, I don't see the value and I don't see the value much anyway. He's a 3rd rock to me. I can't build around him. Too one dimenisional for my taste and not good enough (Melo) to justify it. I would mind him and Drummond tho. That could work with the right PG.

I love Horf. I think the world of him. I really never think the world of any Hawk now or past. Maybe Pettit and Maravich but that was before my time. Wasn't the biggest Nique fan, I enjoy him more than any Hawk ever. Horf could be a superstar, you just have to use him right and have the right PG. I think Jeff is growing, he is becoming better and better. Still inconsistent but I will stop my trade chatter for now with him. I see him becoming a PG now. Dennis can special, has a long ways to go.

[Admin]

Again, the ONLY areas where Al is better is at shooting and that pumps up his offensive win shares, total win shares, TS%, and other stats that rely heavily on shooting %.

Let's get some actual #'s in here and you can see how it's sad that our PF is better or nearly equal to our C at things he shouldn't be better at like rebounding, shot blocking, etc. Oh and these are the PER36 numbers, just so you won't be able to use the minutes excuse.

 

 

Rk	Player	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Al Horford	8.0	14.2	.563	0.2	0.5	.400	7.8	13.7	.568	0.9	1.2	.769	2.2	5.6	7.8	3.1	0.8	1.5	1.3	2.4	17.1
2	Paul Millsap	6.6	14.1	.466	1.1	3.3	.333	5.4	10.7	.507	3.2	5.0	.635	2.1	6.4	8.5	3.1	2.2	0.9	2.4	3.1	17.4

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/27/2014.

[Admin]

And you want to talk about value and impact, well luckily basketball-reference finally came up with a stat like WARP in baseball that shows the value of a player vs that of a replacement player. That stat alone measures impact and value. 

 

VORP

Millsap - 3.0

Horford - 2.2

 

 

Value over Replacement Player

A box score estimate of the points per 100 TEAM possessions a player contributed above a replacement-level (-2.0) player, translated to an average team.

 

Multiply by 2.70 to convert to wins over replacement.

 

Or maybe we look at their box score tools?

 

DBPM (higher the # the better)

Millsap - 1.4

Horford - 0.5

 

 

Defensive Box Plus/Minus

A box score estimate of the defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team.

 

On the offensive end, Horford wins out, again because he's such a tremendously accurate set shooter.

 

OBPM

Horford - 1.2

Millsap - 0.7

 

 

Offensive Box Plus/Minus

A box score estimate of the offensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team.

 

And no @hawksfanatic I don't care about using these even though I have no idea how they determine it. I trust them to come up with accurate and meaningful stats so suck it! :sun:

[Plainview1981]

Understanding how to roll, how to cut, how to play off of screens, how to get open, understanding where to set a screen for you and the handler. It takes high BBIQ, agility, feel for the game and to perfect it in the NBA, it takes athletic ability.

Millsap isn't a movement player. He doesn't really like to move when off the ball. He like to put himself in position to get the ball and do the rest himself.

Impact wise Horford is much better. Not even comparable in my opinion or any true NBA head opinion. Thinking Sap has more impact is like those guys we used to have here who swore Smoove was more valuable than Horford and their used to be more than a few at one time. Now it's easy to throw Smoove under the bus but back then, it wasn't the case.

Horford's rebounding took a plunge due to him coming back from his injury and now he has been consistent on the boards or either boxing out, clearing out the paint for others like Sap, DMC, Korver and Mack to get boards.

Look at the numbers. per36 since Al has only played 29 MPG to Sap's 35MPG Al just about has better advanced and true numbers in every sense outside of steals, FTA's and rebounding while losing in FG%, WS, PER, AST, BLK, AST/TO, TO, ORtG, WS/48 and out of position the whole time. Sap gets dominated in many categories as well and this was Al without a training camp, preseason and he wasn't himself at first but now... No comparison. Horford is much better as he is. We all know Horford is a much better player than Millsap.

Millsap might be 2.5 million less but that's for this year and he's not a center. No one is going to pay him and he's not a big 3 piece. Jeff is more of that Jeff isn't. Horf can be useful out of position and misused but not Sap.

Overall, I would like Marc Gasol as would everyone then I would like Greg Monroe or Roy Hibbert. Not too high on Al Jefferson simply because you have to build your offense around him and he is a ball stopper. I tried telling northcyde that but assumed I was wrong and all behold, Charlotte tries to change it up and their 4-12. It's hard and near impossible to win with Jefferson unless it's his show. They are missing McBob as well which doesn't help.

Not high on Millsap. I think he is a very good offensive player and an average defensive player. He's undersized and unless you have a true really good center beside him, I don't see the value and I don't see the value much anyway. He's a 3rd rock to me. I can't build around him. Too one dimenisional for my taste and not good enough (Melo) to justify it. I would mind him and Drummond tho. That could work with the right PG.

I love Horf. I think the world of him. I really never think the world of any Hawk now or past. Maybe Pettit and Maravich but that was before my time. Wasn't the biggest Nique fan, I enjoy him more than any Hawk ever. Horf could be a superstar, you just have to use him right and have the right PG. I think Jeff is growing, he is becoming better and better. Still inconsistent but I will stop my trade chatter for now with him. I see him becoming a PG now. Dennis can special, has a long ways to go.

 

 

 

I agree with you about Jefferson.

 

But it takes something special inside to be a superstar.... It requires some responsibilities that Horford just is not up for.

[Guest]

And no @hawksfanatic I don't care about using these even though I have no idea how they determine it. I trust them to come up with accurate and meaningful stats so suck it! :sun:

Ugh, bkref has a section describing how they constructed the metric. It is so ad hoc and frustrating because the person who created it doesn't even understand the processes he is using to create it.

[Admin]

Ugh, bkref has a section describing how they constructed the metric. It is so ad hoc and frustrating because the person who created it doesn't even understand the processes he is using to create it.

That makes it even better!