Danny Ferry is horrible at drafting in the 1st round

[NBASupes]

@AHF you forgot Moose.

I would say he's a positive. He is a bench rotation player. That's all you really want from that slot. Anything more and you did a great job. Edy Tavares was in our top 20 on our draft board. How we got him, I am still shocked to say the least. We could have got him at 15 and I would have been fine with it. 

Edited February 11, 2015 by nbasupes40retired

[Admin]

Um. I'd like to try.

 

Dennis: Looking like an exceptional pick.

 

Bebe: Drafted as a project... nothing evident yet, but check back in a year or so to see if he's developed.

 

Payne: Drafted as NBA-ready, but couldn't hang with the rotation guys for one of the NBA's best teams... check back in a year or so to see if he's established himself in MIN's rotation.

 

My tally: 1 positive verdict, 2 jury's-still-outs.

 

And that's just the talent verdict.

 

As compelling as that to me is the slot verdict--ie, just how many players drafted within the 5-10 players behind him (thus, reasonably part of the pool of players rationally given some consideration) have turned out to seem to have a future at this stage... if only one guy fits that, I'm a whole lot more forgiving than if there are, say, 3 or 4 who have distinguished themselves, and not at all forgiving if there are 5 or more.

 

Even if Bebe and Payne succeed elsewhere, it's still a failure by him. And in that case it's even more of an indictment of our management to be so impatient with these guys by giving them away without getting much in return.  

[sturt]

It's a failure, but not a draft day failure.

 

The presumption... at least my presumption, I can't speak for anyone else... is that your GM on draft day is charged with selecting the player at the assigned slots who will ultimately prove to be the most productive player remaining in the draft at each slot. His drafting grade card is equivalent to his talent evaluation grade card... one and the same.

 

If circumstances evolve that make it more attractive to deal a player at some point, then those deals have to be evaluated independent of his draft day competency, imo.

Edited February 11, 2015 by sturt

[DS5]

Funny that the naysayers will always find something to criticize.

Hawks are first place, best hawks team ever, we have 4 all Stars, longest winning streak in franchise history... Oh wait, we traded our first round pick that couldn't get any play time for another first round pick? FERRY SUCKS!!!

[IheartVolt]

This thread over Payne? You guys have got to be joking right? He is not , nor has Danny Ferry had a lottery pick to draft a bonafide cannot lose talent. You guys amaze me with some of these knee jerk reactions over every move. If you find a good talent at the #15 pick you are doing well as many GM's will discover..

Lay off the coffee folks

[AHF]

a bonafide cannot lose talent

 

Those guys come along every couple years.  Tim Duncan, Lebron, etc.  Almost nobody is a bonafide cannot lose talent.  I wouldn't even criticize Babcock's drafting if that was my standard!  I do agree that not every pick is going to be a winner - especially when you aren't picking at the top of the draft - but the ability to make those picks is what separates good drafters from the mediocre ones.  I don't have a problem with this discussion, but feel that Ferry's success in other areas makes it a moot point given his overall track record on basketball moves in Atlanta.

[IheartVolt]

Those guys come along every couple years. Tim Duncan, Lebron, etc. Almost nobody is a bonafide cannot lose talent. I wouldn't even criticize Babcock's drafting if that was my standard! I do agree that not every pick is going to be a winner - especially when you aren't picking at the top of the draft - but the ability to make those picks is what separates good drafters from the mediocre ones. I don't have a problem with this discussion, but feel that Ferry's success in other areas makes it a moot point given his overall track record on basketball moves in Atlanta.

All I am saying is every first rounder has been mid lvl or bottom of the round. What is the realistic chance of someone having even a very good resume when picking in that area of the draft? The nimbers cannot work in any GM's favor in this situation.

Sure there may be a team or two who hits it just right but come on folks! Watch your crazy damn standards.

[AHF]

All I am saying is every first rounder has been mid lvl or bottom of the round. What is the realistic chance of someone having even a very good resume when picking in that area of the draft? The nimbers cannot work in any GM's favor in this situation.

Sure there may be a team or two who hits it just right but come on folks! Watch your crazy damn standards.

 

We haven't had any in the bottom of the round but I agree with your point about right setting expectations.  No GM is ever going to get the right guy every time or even a good player every time.  There is, however, always talent in the 16-23 range.  1/4 is not impressive there but Ferry's hit rate in the second round has been impressive.  Over 3 years of drafting, he has channeled the #15, #16, #17, #23, #43, #43, #44, #48 picks into: Dennis, Scott, Moose, Edy and a future first round pick (upside '17 #15, downside 2021/22 2nd rounders).  That is OK in my book. 

[Admin]

Funny that the naysayers will always find something to criticize.

Hawks are first place, best hawks team ever, we have 4 all Stars, longest winning streak in franchise history... Oh wait, we traded our first round pick that couldn't get any play time for another first round pick? FERRY SUCKS!!!

 

We didn't trade him for another first round pick so let's not muddy the waters with untruths. 

[EazyRoc]

Im curious as to who is consistently better in the mid first round..

[Admin]

This thread over Payne? You guys have got to be joking right? He is not , nor has Danny Ferry had a lottery pick to draft a bonafide cannot lose talent. You guys amaze me with some of these knee jerk reactions over every move. If you find a good talent at the #15 pick you are doing well as many GM's will discover..

Lay off the coffee folks

 

Guess you hadn't looked at the draft history of the Pacers or Rockets to see what a good talent evaluating GM can do with them. 

[Admin]

Im curious as to who is consistently better in the mid first round..

 

Pacers

2013 - Solomon Hill (23rd) - turning into a quality player

2012 - Miles Plumlee (26th) - very solid 2nd year, caught up in a bad situation in Phoenix right now

2011 - Kawhi Leonard (15th) - traded on draft night, finals MVP

2010 - Lance Stephenson (40th) - terrible year this year but has been a steal of a pick

2009 - Tyler Hansbrough (13th) - productive player and good rotational big

2006 - Shawne Williams  (17th) - journeyman but currently one of the better 3pt shooters in league

2005 - Danny Granger (17th) - excellent player until injuries killed his career

 

Rockets

2012 - Terrence Jones (18th) - very talented young big

2011 - Marcus Morris (14th) - plays big minutes for the Suns

2011 - Nicola Mirotic (23rd) - key building block for current Bulls team

2011 - Chandler Parsons (38th) - starter for the Mavs and future building block

2010 - Patrick Patterson (14th) - key player for Raptors

2008 - Nicolas Batum (25th) - one of the best SFs in the league

[Guest]

Pacers

2013 - Solomon Hill (23rd) - turning into a quality player

2012 - Miles Plumlee (26th) - very solid 2nd year, caught up in a bad situation in Phoenix right now

2011 - Kawhi Leonard (15th) - traded on draft night, finals MVP

2010 - Lance Stephenson (40th) - terrible year this year but has been a steal of a pick

2009 - Tyler Hansbrough (13th) - productive player and good rotational big

2006 - Shawne Williams (17th) - journeyman but currently one of the better 3pt shooters in league

2005 - Danny Granger (17th) - excellent player until injuries killed his career

Rockets

2012 - Terrence Jones (18th) - very talented young big

2011 - Marcus Morris (14th) - plays big minutes for the Suns

2011 - Nicola Mirotic (23rd) - key building block for current Bulls team

2011 - Chandler Parsons (38th) - starter for the Mavs and future building block

2010 - Patrick Patterson (14th) - key player for Raptors

2008 - Nicolas Batum (25th) - one of the best SFs in the league

I don't think you can count Kawhi Leonard since he was the Spurs target, Indy would not have selected him because they had PG. Indy had no idea who they were drafting on behalf on SAS until the trade was complete. Similarly, Batum should not be included for the Rockets.

You've included picks over a span of 8 years for the Pacers, and 4 for the rockets. DF has had 3 drafts.

[Admin]

I don't think you can count Kawhi Leonard since he was the Spurs target, Indy would not have selected him because they had PG. Indy had no idea who they were drafting on behalf on SAS until the trade was complete. Similarly, Batum should not be included for the Rockets.

You've included picks over a span of 8 years for the Pacers, and 4 for the rockets. DF has had 3 drafts.

 

Just because the Spurs loved him doesn't mean the Pacers wouldn't have drafted him. But even if you take him off, they still have a good track record drafting outside of the lottery. Same goes for Batum.

 

Of course I've used a longer span with the Rockets and Pacers as I'm trying to show how they have a long history of picking strongly outside of the lottery. In that timeframe they have fewer failures than what it appears Ferry has had in 3 years.

[Guest]

Just because the Spurs loved him doesn't mean the Pacers wouldn't have drafted him. But even if you take him off, they still have a good track record drafting outside of the lottery. Same goes for Batum.

Of course I've used a longer span with the Rockets and Pacers as I'm trying to show how they have a long history of picking strongly outside of the lottery. In that timeframe they have fewer failures than what it appears Ferry has had in 3 years.

They said they weren't going to draft Leonard because they had Paul George, they were looking for a point guard.

[JETSET]

Pacers

2013 - Solomon Hill (23rd) - turning into a quality player

2012 - Miles Plumlee (26th) - very solid 2nd year, caught up in a bad situation in Phoenix right now

2011 - Kawhi Leonard (15th) - traded on draft night, finals MVP

2010 - Lance Stephenson (40th) - terrible year this year but has been a steal of a pick

2009 - Tyler Hansbrough (13th) - productive player and good rotational big

2006 - Shawne Williams  (17th) - journeyman but currently one of the better 3pt shooters in league

2005 - Danny Granger (17th) - excellent player until injuries killed his career

 

Rockets

2012 - Terrence Jones (18th) - very talented young big

2011 - Marcus Morris (14th) - plays big minutes for the Suns

2011 - Nicola Mirotic (23rd) - key building block for current Bulls team

2011 - Chandler Parsons (38th) - starter for the Mavs and future building block

2010 - Patrick Patterson (14th) - key player for Raptors

2008 - Nicolas Batum (25th) - one of the best SFs in the league

What's so special about Indiana's list?  If these players are so good, why aren't they still with Indiana?  I agree with Jaybird about Leonard.  Granger was an excellent pick.  Stephenson is meh and the rest are nothing to brag about.

[Admin]

What's so special about Indiana's list?  If these players are so good, why aren't they still with Indiana?  I agree with Jaybird about Leonard.  Granger was an excellent pick.  Stephenson is meh and the rest are nothing to brag about.

 

Compared to Jenkins and Bebe who could be out of the league in 2 years those are good picks. Plus you'd have to look at what was picked after the Pacers and Rockets selections to see if they did well or not.

 

Not saying they're great picks or anything but Ferry's picks have stunk outside of Schröder and our 2nd round where he's been tremendous.

They said they weren't going to draft Leonard because they had Paul George, they were looking for a point guard.

 

I don't recall that but even so that doesn't mean they wouldn't have made another smart selection there. 

[JETSET]

I would say we have had more success in the mid rounds than Indiana.  Since 2003 we have hit on:

 

2003 - Boris Diaw (21)

2004 - Josh Smith (17)

2009 - Jeff Teague (19)

2013 - Dennis Schröder (17)

 

Those are difference makers.

[Admin]

I would say we have had more success in the mid rounds than Indiana.  Since 2003 we have hit on:

 

2003 - Boris Diaw (21)

2004 - Josh Smith (17)

2009 - Jeff Teague (19)

2013 - Dennis Schröder (17)

 

Those are difference makers.

 

Those are excellent picks but only one can be credited to Ferry and that's my point. And even in your list we've only got 2 guys in the last 10 years there and several failed lottery selections.

[AHF]

Those are excellent picks but only one can be credited to Ferry and that's my point. And even in your list we've only got 2 guys in the last 10 years there and several failed lottery selections.

 

Compared to BK's lottery failures and Babcock's everywhere failures...well, lots of people stand to look pretty decent.  It is a low bar to clear!

 

BK was at his best in the mid-first, though.  He had two shots at #17 and #21 and nailed them both.  If you count late lottery, Acie pulls that down some.