Premium Member sturt Posted October 12, 2015 Premium Member Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-atlanta-hawks-preview/ Our projections call for declines from practically all of the players who powered Atlanta’s unexpected rise, particularly Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver. What’s left over after the fall should still be a solid-enough team. But CARMELO projects Atlanta to go 45-37, which may not place the Hawks among the top half of Eastern Conference playoff teams, much less allow them to vie for the East’s best record again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin capstone21 Posted October 12, 2015 Admin Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 45 wins huh ... that is some respect right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High5 Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 There's only so much you can gather from stats/projections that say a player is very similar to both 2013 Gerald Wallace and 1981 Dr. J. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plainview1981 Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) I don't see this happening unless there are a number of injuries. Why would Millsap just decline? This is the peak of his career. It doesn't make sense. I can already tell that I'm going to get tired of this "Carmello Projection" stuff really quickly. Edited October 12, 2015 by Hotlanta1981 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plainview1981 Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 25 losses because Carroll is gone? Now, he has the effect of an MVP level player now that he is gone. Funny how that happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Am I the only one that saw that and thought ...Look I know nimbers are all the rage but nonsense like that gives analytics a bad name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JETSET Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Mack getting more playing time than Bazemore? That projection is a good sign that they don't know much about this team. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benhillboy Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) These are just baselines. I wouldn't even think the creators would take these very seriously. I don't have much of an issue with it, Bud will start his minutes monitoring and injury prevention from opening night instead of March. Accounting for him being the best coach in the East and all the other contenders in a state of flux, I'd easily bump it up to 50. Tack on 3 more just for the sake of Year 3 in the system. Home court isn't half as important to Bud as it was last season. If anything, these types of matrices going public will add motivation. Namely to Dennis, who the numbers surprisingly hate. Edited October 12, 2015 by benhillboy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Mule Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Four starters back. DMC gone. More height added and rebounding improvedwhich has the bench looking good. Right now, the fifth starter comes fromlast season's team and, the recovering Thabo is expected back well before the all star break.Korver may be past his prime. But, not by a lot. The other three starters haven'tyet reached their prime.Has the successful system of Bud now become "old hat" and all the other NBA teamsnow have the solution to beat Atlanta? Has our coach of the year suddenly becomedumb? Something terrible has happened, apparently. We are 15 games behind lastseason's team with 45 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrReality Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 We can't be as good as last year given our win streak but numbers don't measure intangibles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLHawks3 Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 I'd like to see the same projections they had of us last year and compare it to this shit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JETSET Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 We can't be as good as last year given our win streak but numbers don't measure intangiblesI don't see why not. I agree that we won't replicate the feat of 19 straight wins but I am just as confident that we start the year better than 5-5 and finish much better than 11-10 over our final 21 games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 I'd like to see the same projections they had of us last year and compare it to this shit.I too would like to see last year's projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canopy Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-atlanta-hawks-preview/ If Larry Drew was our coach then this projection may have been close. But, with coach Bud and fact that roaster has mostly remained the same, I would say they are off by +8 to 10 win. Almost every player saw improved efficiency under Bud and even though current SF situation is not ideal, team's overall depth have improved. Edited October 13, 2015 by Canopy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLHawks3 Posted October 13, 2015 Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 We're still a 53+ win team in my book barring any major injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawksNWaffles Posted October 13, 2015 Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 I could easily see at least 50 wins from this group. I don't think Milsap will have the drop off that is being predicted here. I'm interested to see how THJ and JHoliday are able to contribute in Coach Bud's system. If anyone else says otherwise........ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member cam1218 Posted October 13, 2015 Premium Member Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 25 losses because Carroll is gone? Now, he has the effect of an MVP level player now that he is gone. Funny how that happens.Very good point here. When we hear trade rumors, the Hawks are always giving up so much for mediocre talent. Now we lose our one starter who wasn't an all star (but very valuable) and we suck again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkItus Posted October 13, 2015 Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 what did they project last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 13, 2015 Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 In some season projection-related humor, our guy Stacey King thinks we'll be under 49 wins. Meanwhile, he says the Knicks and Celtics (because of David Lee) will be in the high 40's and Sacto will win over 40. Also, the Magic will have a big jump (+10) in wins this year. He's the Oprah Winfrey of the NBA. "You get a 50-win season, you get a 50-win season, you all get 50-wins!!!!! ... not you Atlanta."Just comical. Oh, and the Bulls will win over 50 easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkItus Posted October 13, 2015 Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 Pretty much the same, 44-38:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-key-offseason-pickups-should-give-the-cavs-a-boost/So for you stat heads, does this display a bias against our players? I mean many of our guys were under bad coaching or used differently than they are here in Atlanta. Makes me think historical data needs to be devalued when discussing this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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