Official Game Preview: Hawks at Rockets

[lethalweapon3]

Should auld acquaintance be forgot… and NEVER brought to mind?

 

2015. Phew! What a year, eh?

Couched around the greatest postseason push in Atlanta Hawks history, and a record four All-Star Game participants, was the second-most successful calendar year of regular season games ever experienced by the franchise.

From the rafters, Dikembe Mutombo wags a disallowing finger at those daring notions that Calendar Year 2015 was the greatest Hawks regular-season campaign ever, or that the most successful January-to-December stretch came from players rocking a Pac-Man jersey. Deke, Lenny, Smitty, and Mookie’s Hawks went 59-25 (70.24%) in 1997. In The Year of Many People’s Lord 2015, the Hawks had a chance to match that win total by winning last night’s and tonight’s road games.

Even failing that, no outcome tonight will stop the gaggle of Hawks including Bud, Bawse, Jeff, and Sap from the 4^th-best percentage record in any calendar year of its speckled NBA history (going all the way back to Tri-Cities). Currently at 67.86%, that’s a mark bested only by the 1997 edition, and the teams rolled out by the Czar with Nique, Doc, and Kevin in 1986 (69.62%) and 1987 (68.51%). To separate from the ’87 players and stand alone in second-place among calendar-year win totals, the 57-27 Hawks of 2015 must take out the Houston Rockets (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast) tonight at the Toyota Center.

Speaking of Toyota… oh, what a feeling. If you’ve felt a tinge of a letdown after the wild success that marked the first half of 2015, try getting sympathy from a Rockets fan. H-Town was in the NBA Final Four last season, too, and even won a game once they got there. They have the Players’ Choice MVP, plus a “real” center who is still supposed to be, even at age 30, among the upper tier at his position. Furthermore, they went out in the summer to acquire a speedy point guard that shores up the position, at least offensively, and conceivably made it where their high-usage superstar shooting guard no longer has to handle the rock so darn much.

None of that was supposed to add up to their current record of 16-16. Central to the issues in Space City was putrid defensive effort. A team that finished among the top-ten in defensive rating in 2014-15 (100.5, just ahead of Atlanta’s 100.7, 6^th in NBA) has dropped down to 23^rd so far this year (104.4, just ahead of Philadelphia).

Rocket opponents are shooting 63.4 FG% in the restricted area (2^nd-worst in NBA) and are making hay at the corner-three zones (2.9 corner 3FGs per game, 3^rd-most in NBA). A team starting Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, and Patrick Beverley, along with the emerging Clint Capela, shouldn’t have so much trouble getting stops on the regular. Of course, decent team defense takes a five-man effort. And the fifth starter has been a problem.

Houston’s superstar, James Harden, built up his MVP credentials in 2014-15 with gritty defensive effort. But the Bearded One seems to have reverted back to the downright hairy defense of yesteryear, the lackadaisical stuff that once made him a YouTube sensation for all the wrong reasons.

Harden leads the way with a career-high 28.4 PPG (2^nd in NBA), but his usage rate (even with Ty Lawson in tow) has inexplicably risen to a career-high 32.8%. His shooting percentage of 41.7 FG% (career-low 33.5 3FG%) the worst since his thunderous rookie season, and his turnover percentage of 15.3% is a career-high. Meanwhile, his defensive box plus/minus (-0.7) and defensive rating (106.1; net rating of -3.4 in home games) indicators suggest he’s about as ineffective a defender as he has ever been.

It turns out it might actually take a Rocket scientist to figure out not only how to get Harden re-focused, but to find the proper balance of the Lawson/Beverley platoon. Beverley was in-and-out to start the season with an ankle injury. Lawson started the first 11 games before getting deposed, and has been a Porter Ranch-scale disaster (34.8 FG%, 31.0 3FG%) as a shooter and a defender.

While one team tonight has an All-Star center who is only accused of pacing himself through the season, the other team has a well-paid center who openly admits to doing exactly that. Howard has been slowed by issues with his knee and back. As he looks forward to VetMinning his way to retirement at age 40, Howard, now in his twelth NBA season, doesn’t mind one bit when the coach rests him for whole quarters, or whole games. Dwight has become, essentially, a offensive board-crasher and help-defender who hopes nobody hacks him and sends him to the line (50.3 FT%, his worst in last three seasons).

Howard’s partner-in-crime Josh Smith left over the summer for Los Angeles, and filling the hole at the power forward spot has been like trying to spackel a drive-thru window. Donatas Motiejunas just returned, and Terrence Jones (career-low 45.5 FG%) has been underwhelming in his return to action, and Montrezl Harrell, well, just no. So Capela has been granted trial-by-fire at the 4-spot.

McHale’s navy tried to plug all the leaks, but after just 11 games (4-7), the commander was tossed overboard. J.B. Bickerstaff now steers the wheel, and while the team has crawled back to .500 under his watch, it’s hard to say whether they would have gone 12-9 under Kevin McHale anyway. “Over and over again,” Bickerstaff bickered Mark Jackson-style, after the Rockets fizzled late in New Orleans on Saturday, “we’ve disrespected the game”. Despite a pleasant Christmas Day defensive effort in a home win over the Spurs, J.B. wants to stop the “ugly Rockets” from rearing their heads.  

Jettisoning Lawson in favor of Jason “JET” Terry and Beverley has generally worked out, as has putting more trust in Thabo Sefolosha’s Swiss bro Capela (14.7 O-Reb%, 4^th in NBA). But Bickerstaff has a better chance of righting the ship if he can find steadier contributions of the bench. Houston’s reserves manage just 27.1 defensive rebounds per-48 (28^th in NBA) and their turnover ratio (16.6 per 100 possessions) ranks 27^th.

The Hawks (20-13) couldn’t hit the broad side of an Indiana barn last night (41.9 team FG%; Kyle Korver 0-for-8 3FGs), and was as sloppy with the ball as we’ve seen all season long (19.0 TO%, worst since losing in Brooklyn on Nov. 17). And yet they still found themselves, on the road, within a bucket of the lead with just under a minute to play.

The defensive work to limit Paul George’s effectiveness, and coax him into questionable shots without fouling, allowed Atlanta to stay within reach until the sloppy end. They’ll need a similar effort tonight versus Harden, but they also need to keep a shoot-first guard like Terry from thinking he can be Monta Ellis.

Whichever Hawks guard doesn’t draw Beverley should find minimal defensive resistance (unless Bickerstaff leans on Corey Brewer, or the barely-used K.J. McDaniels) and should have ample opportunity to make amends tonight. That guard is likely to be Korver, and the struggling shooter must work the corner spots with reckless abandon tonight, in order to shake off his slump.

Capela and Howard will crash the glass, and create extra-chances. But Atlanta also did well yesterday making outlet passes off the Pacers’ offensive rebounds tough last night and should continue to do so again whenever they fail to snare the defensive rebound. Getting to the paint and making the extra pass without drawing charges and getting rejected will help the Hawks go into 2016 on a high note.

Have a Happy New Year! Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

 

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[benhillboy]

I've never cared for anything Dwight-related, but Harden has transformed from one of my favs to one of my most-hated.  Please don't lose to these bozos.  James Brown please.

[Gray Mule]

Hawks usually do well against Howard, for some reason.  Harden, the bearded one, on the other hand,

seems to thrive on Hawk cooking.  We want a win.  We need a win.  We're not desperate, not yet.

We have played 4 more games than Cleveland, all losses.  Enough, already.  Get us a win, ATL Hawks!

[Lurker]

Afraid Bazemore is going to allow 15-20 FT attempts. Guy just isn't a smart defender.

15-20 FT attempts to Harden** (again I can't edit due to VIP feature getting in the way)

[Guest]

Great game thread as usual lw3!!!(would elaborate but got flu)

 

hawks 115

rox 82

 

our night...ps4 pic to come

 

 

[Lurker]

This team is a disgrace. Blow it up!

[Lurker]

Another starting lineup change needs to be made, which is Kyle Korver out of the starting lineup IMMEDIATELY.

[Dnice]

Must have been a long flight from Indiana.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Edy putting in work.  And Al has turned into threezus.

[ATLHawks3]

This was the greatest regular season win I've seen the hawks pull off since Bud got hired. 

[AUhawksfan]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

This team is a disgrace. Blow it up!

First your Al thread, now this. Keep it up, I like seeing you wrong!

[Guest]

Easily the most satisfying win of the year.  Rockets may be the least likeable team in the history of earth.

[Lurker]

How did this team score 121 points with a starter that provided nothing, good lord. I was trying to watch CFB instead, but I may be checking in on the replay of this..

[ATLHawks3]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

How did this team score 121 points with a starter that provided nothing, good lord. I was trying to watch CFB instead, but I may be checking in on the replay of this..

It ain't over till its over. It's obvious you should have stuck around man, you missed an amazing comeback.

[Atlantaholic]

Al Horford and Millsap MANHANDLED the Rockets "Twin Towers". No thanks to trading Al Horford for Howard; What good is a player when he can't be out there in close games or he gets fouled and looses the game single handedly?

[AUhawksfan]

Kyle not only needs to come off the bench, I think he needs a game or two off completely. Let some the bench guys get some burn.  He just about shot us out of this one.

I only saw the end so I missed Edy, how did he look?  His stat line looks decent.

I don't know why so many people don't have faith in Baze or see him as a long term option.  We need to resign him.  He already had the defense and hustle, but the growth in him on offense this season from game to game has been amazing to watch.  I'm a huge fan and knew he had some potential.

Al, Jeff, and Sap doing what they do.

Seeing Baze frustrate Harden at the end was nice but those two blocks by Sap at the end (one on Howard) was by far my favorite highlight!

[Atlantaholic]

5 minutes ago, AUhawksfan said:

Kyle not only needs to come off the bench, I think he needs a game or two off completely. Let some the bench guys get some burn.  He just about shot us out of this one.

I only saw the end so I missed Edy, how did he look?  His stat line looks decent.

I don't know why so many people don't have faith in Baze or see him as a long term option.  We need to resign him.  He already had the defense and hustle, but the growth in him on offense this season from game to game has been amazing to watch.  I'm a huge fan and knew he had some potential.

Al, Jeff, and Sap doing what they do.

Seeing Baze frustrate Harden at the end was nice but those two blocks by Sap at the end (one on Howard) was by far my favorite highlight!

Edy looked like he belonged; outside of one boneheaded play where he slapped the ball to the second aisle of the stands instead of grabbing it for some reason that is lol.

Seriously though, he was good. Held his own against one of the supposed elite front lines in the NBA.

[Sarcatic1]

Great win tonight

Al, Baze, Sap, and Jeff carried the team tonight. They made every play down the stretch and for the whole game really.

Best I have seen Al play all year. Dude got after it on both ends. He has to do this more consistently

Sap has been worth every penny of that deal

Baze with a big bounce back game

Jeff is finally looking like Jeff again. I guess he is over that ankle injury. He has that explosiveness back.

 

Kyle needs a few games off. Just let him get some rest and let Holiday or Hardaway play. He got a bunch of good and open looks and wasnt even close to hitting them. Let him heal up some

 

Props to Edy. He came in and played big in the few minutes he was out there

 

I guess Dennis got a night off or is in the dog house again. I hope he was out for rest but I dont know

[Atlantaholic]

My stat of the night: +-

Al Horford = +17

Dwight Howard= -20

[cam1218]

17 minutes ago, Lurker said:

How did this team score 121 points with a starter that provided nothing, good lord. I was trying to watch CFB instead, but I may be checking in on the replay of this..

Because we can play good team ball. Your buddy Baze was clutch, Horford dropped 30, Sap and Teague were great and Edy stepped in and provided huge minutes. There are so many things that don't show up on a box score that attribute to a lot of our success.