ESPN insider on Hawks offseason

[Guest]

Could anyone with insider post this article for us? Thanks in advance. 

[Guest]

We have more insight here on the Squawk though.

[Sothron]

I personally cannot wait to see us waste yet another first round pick this year. What nameless bum will we trade it for this year?

[Dnice]

Early, but the pick wouldn't matter with where we finished, and plenty of youth with under 4 yrs in.

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We have more insight here on the Squawk though.

Agreed but I'm so exhausted from our loss I needed some comic relief from BSPN. Actually come to think of it, most likely it would piss me off lol

[Lurker]

34 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I personally cannot wait to see us waste yet another first round pick this year. What nameless bum will we trade it for this year?

Don't think you can trade your first round pick two years in a row. So it will have to be used.

[Dejay]

International project player to be stashed away in Europe, never to be heard from again...

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Don't think you can trade your first round pick two years in a row. So it will have to be used.

We need to trade the pick for a SF. Gay or P.J. Tucker

[BackForThe2ndTime]

The Atlanta Hawks face major roster questions this summer.

Should they bring back Al Horford andKent Bazemore on big contracts? Who is their point guard of the future?

Our NBA Insider crew forecasts the future for the Hawks.

---

1. What do you foresee and advise for the Hawks this offseason?

Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: The Hawks will try to parlay their new ownership group led by Tony Ressler (that also includes Grant Hill), their state-of-the-art training facility (which will include a P3 training center) and the new direction of the basketball operations under coachMike Budenholzer to land some serious meetings with serious free agents.

That has historically been the rub for their Hawks -- they've never been regarded by the league as a place where a top-line talent would want to set down roots. This is the summer the Hawks would like to see that change.

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Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I would trade starting point guard Jeff Teague to get a younger wing player, asKyle Korver is already 34 and has significantly declined from last season. Maybe they can pry Rodney Hood away from the Utah Jazz, who seem to have an uncertain PG situation.

Steve Ilardi, ESPN Insider: I would advise the Hawks to avoid the easy, obvious path this offseason, and instead to follow the Portland Trail Blazers' model for completely rebooting the franchise. That would mean letting Horford and Bazemore walk, trading Teague, and sniffing out value contracts -- this summer's equivalents of guys such as Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee, and Ed Davis -- to add to a Hawks' core of Paul Millsap, Dennis Schröder, Tiago Splitter, Mike Scott and Korver.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: Plan A is re-signing Horford. Even if long-term you feel like you'll need to shuffle the deck, he's good enough that you could trade him, max deal or not. Or you could trade Paul Millsap. Losing Horford wouldn't be the worst thing, though, because you could then pursue somebody such as Dwight Howard or Hassan Whiteside to keep the defense elite while improving the rebounding.

Elsewhere, I think you need to choose either Jeff Teague or Dennis Schröder at point guard, and do what you can to retain Kent Bazemore.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: The Hawks seem to find themselves in a similar point as much of the past decade -- good but not good enough to beat LeBron James' team. Atlanta taking the temperature on big deadline trades, along with the disappointing end to the season, seems to suggest the organization is not committed to simply maxing out Al Horford and keeping the band together.

At the same time, it's hard to find an alternative, and only Cleveland is clearly better in the East going forward. So I think they will re-sign Horford but perhaps let Kent Bazemore walk and again look for the next Bazemore.

---

2. Fact or Fiction: Atlanta should offer Al Horford a max contract.

Pelton: It certainly shouldn't be their first offer, given the likelihood that the last year of that contract ($33.6 million in 2020-21, when Horford will be 34) will get ugly. But if it's the only way to re-sign Horford, I would reluctantly say yes because I think another team would still be willing to acquire Horford early in the deal, when it's more favorable, should the Hawks go another direction.

Doolittle: Fact. Unless you know you can use his salary slot on Kevin Durant, keeping Horford is your best option. Again, he's good enough to be a trade piece if you want to go that direction at a later date.

Engelmann: Fact, but I'd try to make it a four-year deal. While Horford doesn't strike me as a player likely to fall off a cliff due to age, you probably don't want to be paying him max money at the age of 34. For the next couple of seasons, though, he will probably be worth a max contract -- he ranks 24th in Real Plus-Minus (RPM).

Ilardi: Fiction. Horford is easily one of the top 25 players in the league, but he's still not worth nearly $30 million per year over the next five seasons. For perspective, his production of 10.6 RPM Wins this season was worth about $21 million in 2015-16 salary, and about $28 million in inflated 2016-17 dollars.

Since Horford will land on the wrong side of 30 this summer, we would expect his productivity to decline every season of his next contract. Simply put: Teams do not win championships by overpaying their aging stars on lengthy new contracts.

Arnovitz: Fact, even though it will require a slight overpayment on the back end. Horford's game should age well and this season he made nice strides in his range, hitting 34.4 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc. He remains one of the most agile big pick-and-roll defenders in the NBA, and he's an essential cog in the Hawks' steady culture.

What should the Hawks do about Kent Bazemore this summer? Jason Miller/Getty Images

3. Fact or Fiction: Atlanta should offer Kent Bazemore a big contract.

Arnovitz: Fiction, though if Atlanta owned Bazemore's Bird Rights, this might be a different story. Just as DeMarre Carroll left for a bigger number in Toronto, Bazemore will likely find a bidder who has greater financial flexibility than Atlanta.

This is yet another silly quirk in the league's incentive structure, whereby a team isn't afforded any help in retaining a talented young player who tirelessly developed his skills in their program. A better CBA would allow Atlanta to offer what they wished without the cap implications.

Doolittle: Fact. Bazemore shows the ability to provide value either as a complementary player or even as a No. 3 offensive option, along with plus defensive ability and versatility. Also, it's tough to find quality wings, so if you have one, you keep him.

Ilardi: Fiction. Bazemore finished the season with a Predictive RPM below -2.0, which puts his overall productivity near "replacement level." Sure, he has occasional flashes of on-court brilliance, but they should not detract from the fact that he fails to make his team better on a consistent basis. It would be a huge mistake for the Hawks to hand him a big new contract.

Pelton: It would be tough to see another two-way small forward walk out the door after DeMarre Carroll left in free agency last year, and Bazemore's deal is likely to be a better value because he's just entering his prime years. Still, the track record of Hawks University is good enough (Justin Holiday aside) that I'd try to hit another Bazemore/Carroll-style home run -- but this time with a three-year deal giving Atlanta full Bird Rights if that player pans out.

Engelmann: Fiction. One argument in his favor is that he's only 26. But his RPM was below average, 30th-best among small forwards. Smart teams don't offer big contracts to players that are, at best, average.

---

4. Point guard of the future: Jeff Teague, Dennis Schröder or neither?

Engelmann: To me, the situation could not be more clear-cut. The Hawks outscored opponents by only one point per 100 possessions with Teague on the court and by seven with Schröder on the court. I'd go with Schröder.

Pelton: Neither. While Teague has improved his skills immensely over the past few seasons, point guards of his ilk tend to fade quickly in their early 30s or even late 20s, so I wouldn't want to be on the hook for his next contract. Schröder hasn't yet shown the kind of maturity or decision-making necessary to hand him the keys to an offense that depends on good decisions.

Ilardi: Teague and Schröder were both below-average PGs this past season, but at least Schröder is still improving -- he's only 22 -- and still on a cheap rookie deal. I would advise the Hawks to roll the dice with Schröder as their starting 1 next season and to deal Teague this summer for a couple of quality role players.

Arnovitz: Though he can drive a sane spectator crazy with his inconsistency, Schröder is probably the answer here given the vested interest of the front office, and because he better personifies the kind of competitiveness Budenholzer likes to see in a point guard. Teague has played well in Atlanta at the bargain price of $8 million for a number of seasons. But with the final year of his deal slate for next season, that nice Quality-Price Ratio is about to expire.

Doolittle: Schröder. It's a tough call, but Schröder's numbers are comparable to Teague's already and they have a lot of room for growth. With Teague having just the one year left on his deal, this summer is your last, best chance to trade him and get something of real value in return.

---

5. If the Hawks were a stock and you were looking ahead three years, would you buy, sell or hold?

Arnovitz: Buy, not based on the composition of the roster as much as the upward trajectory of the enterprise as a whole. Four years ago, the Hawks offered little to no appeal as a languid franchise that could never get out of its own way. Today, Atlanta has strong leadership with a forward-looking culture and is building a top-notch infrastructure for a players-first organization. The Hawks may not win 60 games again in the next three years, but they're moving strongly in the right direction.

Ilardi: Unless the Hawks are bold enough to do a Portland-style reboot this summer, I would sell. Their aging core is only going to decline in productivity over the next three years, and they will likely end up overpaying to keep them in place.

 

Doolittle: Sell. Atlanta's core is already well into its collective prime. The Hawks need to invest in upside talent because getting lucky in that regard is the only way they close the gap with Cleveland. It's the same problem facing all the second-tier teams in the East: You can do everything right, but there is only one LeBron James to go around.

Engelmann: Sell. Their three best players -- Millsap, Horford and Korver -- will all be on the wrong side of 30 by next season. It's unlikely the Hawks find adequate replacements for all three of them in the foreseeable future. Most likely they'll start a rebuild in the summer of 2017, when Korver and perhaps Millsap will come off the books.

Pelton: Hold. I'm tempted to sell, but the track record of the Hawks when it comes to developing players is strong enough for me to hold in the anticipation that while the Atlanta roster might look very different in three years, the team will still be in contention in the East.

[BigDog90]

5 hours ago, Lurker said:

Don't think you can trade your first round pick two years in a row. So it will have to be used.

I think you can since they'd draft a player and trade it. You can't trade for example, last year's pick to a team (not picking a player) and this year's pick (not picking a player).

[BigDog90]

4 hours ago, NBASupes said:

We need to trade the pick for a SF. Gay or P.J. Tucker

The ball sticks when it comes to Gay and Tucker isn't young. I'd prefer a younger SF like Robert Covington.

[Wurider05]

Quote

Since Horford will land on the wrong side of 30 this summer, we would expect his productivity to decline every season of his next contract. Simply put: Teams do not win championships by overpaying their aging stars on lengthy new contracts.

This

[Guest]

The only sensible insider in that is Arnovitz. The rest are dopes, especially Ilardi.

[NBASupes]

6 hours ago, BigDog90 said:

The ball sticks when it comes to Gay and Tucker isn't young. I'd prefer a younger SF like Robert Covington.

He's worse than those guys. He would be a 7th man on this team. He still needs serious development. I rather go with Prince in the draft or Thabo.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, hawksfanatic said:

The only sensible insider in that is Arnovitz. The rest are dopes, especially Ilardi.

I would rep you ten more times for this post. He's the only one with a clue. Some of them are Diesel like oblivious 

[ATLSmith]

8 hours ago, BackForThe2ndTime said:

Arnovitz: Fiction, though if Atlanta owned Bazemore's Bird Rights, this might be a different story. Just as DeMarre Carroll left for a bigger number in Toronto, Bazemore will likely find a bidder who has greater financial flexibility than Atlanta.

This is yet another silly quirk in the league's incentive structure, whereby a team isn't afforded any help in retaining a talented young player who tirelessly developed his skills in their program. A better CBA would allow Atlanta to offer what they wished without the cap implications.

This is the most frustrating part of that article to read.  I totally agree that the league needs to adjust the CBA so teams can retain their current players without the limitations of the cap, or at least have secondary cap level.  I know some of this was addressed in the current CBA, but it's still an issue.

2 hours ago, hawksfanatic said:

The only sensible insider in that is Arnovitz. The rest are dopes, especially Ilardi.

He had the best answers for sure.

[AHF]

13 hours ago, Lurker said:

Don't think you can trade your first round pick two years in a row. So it will have to be used.

 

7 hours ago, BigDog90 said:

I think you can since they'd draft a player and trade it. You can't trade for example, last year's pick to a team (not picking a player) and this year's pick (not picking a player).

Clarification:

The Hawks can trade their first round pick this season.  Actually, they can do it every season if they want.

The rule is that you can't trade two consecutive future first round draft picks.  If you own a first round pick in 2017, you can trade your 2016 pick today.  As long as you have a pick the next year you can trade your pick in advance of the draft every season.  Even if you do trade all your first round picks for next year, if you wait until after the pick you can still trade your rights that selection every season.  

In sum, the Hawks are completely unrestricted right now as far as what they do with their 2016 first round pick because they own a 2017 first round pick.

[BigDog90]

4 hours ago, NBASupes said:

He's worse than those guys. He would be a 7th man on this team. He still needs serious development. I rather go with Prince in the draft or Thabo.

 

 

He'd be on the right team to develop on. His defense is nice and he got size. Can't teach size.

Edited May 9, 2016 by BigDog90