The Outsiders Den

[deester11]

5 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Horford is not a player you can win a title with as the best player on the team. He's the ideal 3rd best player on a title team. Heck we've said that since he was a rookie.

Spot on!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

@TheNorthCydeRises, what are you talking about? I don't understand your post.  What's the context behind your post?  Please explain. You just using blanketed talking points that make much sense.  I read the post once and was like, this doesn't make any sense. I even read previous years and it makes even less sense. Is there anyone who is reputable who uses what you just posted as a reference? 

@TheNorthCydeRises, I will once again use a Football reference. From an average NFL fan like me to my friend who damn near could work for the NFL but choose IT. I once again am a Colin Kaepernick fan. I don't think he's a star but I enjoy watching him play. Makes big throws, runs fast and really can change the game with big plays and he's not boring as hell. I look at his QB rating and tell my friend. You see, this is why Kaepernick is better than Andrew Luck who I like as well but is completely overrated in my book. Luck is seen as the best young QB in the league and some think he's better than Cam Newton which I find absolutely idiotic. Cam is the best player in the NFL by a mile and the best QB by far which he disagreed and said Rodgers and Brady are better but I regress. I said how is Kaep seen as a backup while making it further in the playoffs than Luck, running for more yards and he has a higher QB rating. You see, it doesn't saying Running QB rating, it's called QB rating, that's gospel right? He was like. "No." The QB rating is an empty stat. I was like how. Because it has no context. I was like, explain? The reason why Luck is better and is going to be highly paid is because of responsibilities. I was like, what do you mean. He was like "Luck's job is massive, he has pre-snap responsibilities, post snap reads, he breaks down the defense in pre snap, he calls his own plays, he audibles into the right one, he gets his line correctly lined up for the defense and makes changes as he see fit, he quickly scans the field, he goes through progressions very well, he knows when and when not to leave the pocket, he can throw on the run, he can make everyone's job a lot easier. Kaep doesn't do most of these things." 

Then I asked, well if he does all of that, why is his QB rating so low? Paraphrasing but not exactly "Because they play a system that is very risky and most couldn't play that or they would lose. They look for big plays. They look for getting the most impact each given drive. This is what makes him so special to so many teams, coaches and scouts across the league. Kaep on the other hand takes risk as well but for him big risk is more safe than taking what the defense gives you because he played into what the defense wanted him to do, he would severely struggle and his team would be completely ineffective." So what would be the best stat to use when talking about Luck's impact? "You really just have to watch the film and use a bunch of advanced stats with it to come to a sound conclusion. That tells all of the stories but most fans watch a lot of games and they can kinda see it and get it. Most NFL fans are more advanced than your average NBA fan." I was like, I completely agree, even our diehards can be idiots. "Well the NBA plays 82 games so it makes it much harder to watch for most fans so basic stats tend to be used more by NBA fans than others." Agreed to a degree but it seems like Baseball is the best analytic sport and he was like yes it is. 'For the obvious, it has a large individual element that the NBA or NFL doesn't have." I agreed and said, this is exactly how I see it. 

So @TheNorthCydeRises, from my understanding for football, sites like this tend to be the best for QB's and understanding the impact of the game for Football. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2016/film-room-andrew-luck

But for Basketball, you have to use a lot since no one sites seems to have it right. Who knows, maybe I might create it with Basketballbreakdown. 

So let's use Al Horford which I will do a breakdown on tonight. I actually have to do homework on it. 

I will use a combination of 82games.com, nba.com SAP team and player stats, I will try to find videos online of his responsibility online which might be too hard to find and I do a similar breakdown for Dwight. This actually takes a lot of time so it might be tonight, might this or next weekend but I will do this post. 

 

If you don't understand the post, I'm sorry.  But you were talking about who impacts a game.  You can't legitimately sit there and talk about how Dwight doesn't impact the game, but Horford does, when Horford averaged 15 pts - 3.5 rebs - and had a 121 Defensive Rating in the Cleveland series.

You just can't do that.

The stats.  The eye test.  Everything says that Horford is simply very good, not elite ... at anything. 

If you disprove of the stats I produced, so be it.  Those same efficiency vs counterpart stats used to show Horford and his impact on a game, in a much favorable light.

I think Horford and Howard, overall, are equal.  But when it comes to what the Hawks need, Howard gives us more of what we need to improve the team.

We don't need our centers shooting 3s.  We need him doing the dirty work around the rim.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 Everything says that Horford is simply very good, not elite ... at anything. 

 

@TheNorthCydeRises You are so wrong - Al has 'elite' movement.  Every time I see that, I go.........

[Lurker]

6 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Horford averaged 15 pts - 3.5 rebs - and had a 121 Defensive Rating in the Cleveland series.

But but but, the reason he did is because he had to cover for every wing player that can't even keep players that aren't even that athletic in front of them!

 

But but but, Bud is going to use Howard EXACTLY how he used Horford outside of shooting threes and it's going to badly expose him! (which if he does, I'm giving him a pink slip as soon as the season is over)

 

*sarcasm*

[bird_dirt]

5 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

We don't need our centers shooting 3s.  We need him doing the dirty work around the rim.

What we need is both so we cam actually adjust to the other team. If what's his name had actually stuck around, then we would have that and could've moved forward, comfortable in playing as a big, physical team, or as a smaller, more agile and finesse team depending on if we'replaying the Cavs or the Dubs. 

[Lurker]

***all of the wing players because they can't keep any average NBA wing player in front of them

[Sothron]

Supes, I know you are upset about Horford. He was hands down my favorite players for  years here. I have a Horford jersey I wear during games either going up to see them or at home watching on tv. I wear his jersey while playing 2k. I love the dude. Until he came bacf from this second pec tear and refused to make contact. He is not the same player you remember. He still does several things very well and no one can argue that but the heart of his game is just gone. I will absolutely not miss that.

[NBASupes]

5 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Supes, I know you are upset about Horford. He was hands down my favorite players for  years here. I have a Horford jersey I wear during games either going up to see them or at home watching on tv. I wear his jersey while playing 2k. I love the dude. Until he came bacf from this second pec tear and refused to make contact. He is not the same player you remember. He still does several things very well and no one can argue that but the heart of his game is just gone. I will absolutely not miss that.

I don't like the way you use heart as it's not this one of having heart. Some coaches think running through a brick wall like Noah or Zaza is heart. Some think it's battling. Some think it's whatever. I think he has heart. You don't set screens like he does if you do not have heart. You do not take the charges he takes if you do not have heart. I think the word your looking for is large personality and energy. That, he doesn't have. 

But I am not upset anymore and haven't been since that day. Seriously I am not upset. KD signing with GS confirmed why I am happy Al turned us down. We need to build a contender. No other way we can do it if we can't get a #1 option to play with Al is to simply... Tank. 

Edited July 4, 2016 by NBASupes

[Sothron]

57 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I don't like the way you use heart as it's not this one of having heart. Some coaches think running through a brick wall like Noah or Zaza is heart. Some think it's battling. Some think it's whatever. I think he has heart. You don't set screens like he does if you do not have heart. You do not take the charges he takes if you do not have heart. I think the word your looking for is large personality and energy. That, he doesn't have. 

But I am not upset anymore and haven't been since that day. Seriously I am not upset. KD signing with GS confirmed why I am happy Al turned us down. We need to build a contender. No other way we can do it if we can't get a #1 option to play with Al is to simply... Tank. 

You know I've been in favor of a proper rebuild for years but we'll see. What I mean by heart is he has no dog in him at all any more. None. He does not fight for rebounds or loose balls. He does not get into the low post at all. He does not drive to the basket off PNR like he used to do. He is strictly a perimeter big man on offense and a very good lateral big man defender on defense that refuses to rebound. I am ok that he is gone.

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, Sothron said:

You know I've been in favor of a proper rebuild for years but we'll see. What I mean by heart is he has no dog in him at all any more. None. He does not fight for rebounds or loose balls. He does not get into the low post at all.

 

He does not drive to the basket off PNR like he used to do.

 

He is strictly a perimeter big man on offense and a very good lateral big man defender on defense that refuses to rebound. I am ok that he is gone.

That's energy not heart though. He doesn't play with high energy i.e. a high motor. 

That would be true. 

I do not agree with the drive to the basket off of PnR part. He still by all stats and film one of the best PnR finishers in the NBA. Maybe since the Hawks do it a lot, he has more opportunity for it but if Al wasn't setting good screens, Atlanta wouldn't run as many PnRs. 

I completely disagree.  His advanced numbers say 43% of his offense is within 10 ft and 24.6% of his offense is with his man playing tight defense.  His advanced numbers say 49.1% of his offense is within 10 ft and 31% of his offense is with his man playing tight defense in the playoffs. That's not a strictly perimeter big numbers. That sounds like a versatile big man considering his efficiency is exceptional. I disagree on defense as well. You are completely underselling Horford to the point where I would think he was Thad Young if I closed my eyes and heard what you wrote.