Kent Bazemore, Tim Hardaway Jr - Locked on Podcast

[Guest]

 

[AHF]

Highlights:

A few thoughts on Dwight without much meat on the bone.

Bazemore

• Feels like an overpay but prob market value
• Concern about his 3pt shooting dropping 2nd half & playoffs
• Might have already seen his best - will have to shoot like last year with his athleticism expected to wain over the course of his deal

THJr

• Should be next guy in rotation ahead of Prince and Bembry
• Watching for 2nd year jump after 1 year in the system
• Can't afford a slow start
• Best thing is only 24, if  he can uptick his 3pt% would be key
• Biggest worry is defense - one of the rookies could pass him there (cohost:  not as down on his defense, gave good effort)
• Both higher on both Bembry and Prince long-term

 

Predictions for wins this season:  44 wins from guest host and Rowland hints that his prediction will be less than that.

 

 

[Diesel]

Just now, AHF said:

Highlights:

A few thoughts on Dwight without much meat on the bone.

Bazemore

• Feels like an overpay but prob market value
• Concern about his 3pt shooting dropping 2nd half & playoffs
• Might have already seen his best - will have to shoot like last year with his athleticism expected to wain over the course of his deal

THJr

• Should be next guy in rotation ahead of Prince and Bembry
• Watching for 2nd year jump after 1 year in the system
• Can't afford a slow start
• Best thing is only 24, if  he can uptick his 3pt% would be key
• Biggest worry is defense - one of the rookies could pass him there (cohost:  not as down on his defense, gave good effort)
• Both higher on both Bembry and Prince long-term

 

Predictions for wins this season:  44 wins from guest host and Rowland hints that his prediction will be less than that.

 

 

I think I would have to agree with the guest on TH2.   I think the host is caught up on a first round pick.. however, Hardaway is a much better shooter than the draft picks and a good defender.  Moreover, I don't know why Bembry is even in the conversation.  Bembry (to me) is not Body Ready to play on this level.  I think by Midseason, if he progresses, Prince will probably work his way into the rotation at SF.   

My real question is what will happen with Thabo??

I think Thabo is a guy who will bring BBIQ and Defense but his offense is not absent but he's a slow starter...

 

[AHF]

I think Thabo will have the same role - about 20 minutes at SF off the bench.

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

Highlights:

A few thoughts on Dwight without much meat on the bone.

Bazemore

• Feels like an overpay but prob market value
• Concern about his 3pt shooting dropping 2nd half & playoffs
• Might have already seen his best - will have to shoot like last year with his athleticism expected to wain over the course of his deal

THJr

• Should be next guy in rotation ahead of Prince and Bembry
• Watching for 2nd year jump after 1 year in the system
• Can't afford a slow start
• Best thing is only 24, if  he can uptick his 3pt% would be key
• Biggest worry is defense - one of the rookies could pass him there (cohost:  not as down on his defense, gave good effort)
• Both higher on both Bembry and Prince long-term

 

Predictions for wins this season:  44 wins from guest host and Rowland hints that his prediction will be less than that.

 

 

Wow 44 wins? I was thinking around 48-52...hmmm maybe I have my Hawk goggles on. Lol

[Diesel]

28 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think Thabo will have the same role - about 20 minutes at SF off the bench.

With the infusion of young players, if they show signs of progress, then Thabo could easily be traded to a contending team.  However, I think we'd also have to measure our need for vet presence in the playoffs. 

[Diesel]

21 minutes ago, Spud2Nique said:

Wow 44 wins? I was thinking around 48-52...hmmm maybe I have my Hawk goggles on. Lol

I think the Hawks are poised to Shock the world.   Right now, everybody is so caught up on Floor spreading and have neglected old school post play.  However, Basketball innovation is cyclic..   It always goes back to having a strong force in the center and strong plays like PNR.  That's why seeing KAT and Davis  and Porzingis is signalling a New Day (i.e. a return to the old). 

[hazer]

Miss the playoffs? These guys get paid how much?

[HawkItus]

Brad Rowland was an Al lover.  His heart is broken that the Hawks didn't keep him.  He hates Dwight and wants to lash out at the team.  

[SalvorMallow]

13 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I think the Hawks are poised to Shock the world.   Right now, everybody is so caught up on Floor spreading and have neglected old school post play.  However, Basketball innovation is cyclic..   It always goes back to having a strong force in the center and strong plays like PNR.  That's why seeing KAT and Davis  and Porzingis is signalling a New Day (i.e. a return to the old). 

I would hardly consider Porzingis or Davis a "Return to old school basketball".   

[Diesel]

3 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

Brad Rowland was an Al lover.  His heart is broken that the Hawks didn't keep him.  He hates Dwight and wants to lash out at the team.  

When you say Al Lover...  are you talking about Supes Level of Al love or something a little more normal?

[SalvorMallow]

7 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

Brad Rowland was an Al lover.  His heart is broken that the Hawks didn't keep him.  He hates Dwight and wants to lash out at the team.  

rofl we gonna miss that 13 ppg 6 rpg come next playoffs :(

[HawkItus]

6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

When you say Al Lover...  are you talking about Supes Level of Al love or something a little more normal?

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2016/7/2/12089034/atlanta-hawks-free-agency-dwight-howard-al-horford-paul-millsap

For the first time in nearly a decade, the Atlanta Hawks will begin an NBA season with a player other than Al Horford as the team’s starting center. Horford now infamously elected to accept a four-year max offer from the Boston Celtics over a five-year, sub-maximum proposal from the Hawks, and while there is plenty of room for emotion on the subject, the 2016-2017 season will soon arrive and there is basketball to be played.

Since the clock struck 12:01 am ET on July 1st, the Hawks have made two significant free agent investments, and in the wake of Horford’s departure, it is time to deconstruct things a bit.

 

What in the world just happened?

Well, in short, the Hawks swapped Al Horford for Dwight Howard.

Yes, Atlanta has added two rookie wings that are intriguing for the future, and one of those players came as a result of a deal that sent Jeff Teague to the Indiana Pacers. When it comes to free agency, though, Atlanta’s current output is simply an exchange of centers while bringing back Kent Bazemore at an exceedingly reasonable price of four years and $70 million.

The point guard position has seen a major change, with Dennis Schröder being “promoted” to the starting job with Teague out of the picture and, as of today, no clear back-up option exists. Will the Hawks acquire another point guard via trade or free agent signing? Absolutely, but the safe money would be on that player simply acting as a stop-gap, rather than as a game-changer of any sort.

The Elephant in the Room

Al Horford is a better basketball player than Dwight Howard.

While there is certainly a faction of NBA fans that would disagree with the above sentence, I don’t find it to be a bold declaration. At one point, Howard was easily the best center in the NBA, tearing through the league as its most dominant defender and an exceptional offensive center, especially when it came to operating in the pick-and-roll. Now, though, Howard is 30 years old and coming off the worst season of his NBA career.

 

Is Dwight Howard an effective player right now? Absolutely. He has a career 29.1% defensive rebounding rate, and as many would be quick to point out, that is an area in which Atlanta has struggled in recent seasons. Howard is also an above-average rim protector, using his still solid athleticism and explosion to deter the opposition at the rim.

What Dwight Howard is not, however, is a better defender than Al Horford.

Howard’s powers have been weakened significantly by a combination of age, mileage and injury issues to both his knees and back. Occasionally, fans will be treated to a highlight-reel defensive play from Howard, but he has quietly transformed into an above-average defender that isn’t spectacular by any means on a game-to-game basis.

Horford, of course, has never been a highlight-reel defender, but he is the more mobile player that happens to be one of the smartest defenders in the NBA. Horford is always in the right spot and, to be honest, he is a wildly underrated rim protector due to the fact that blocked shots are only one (less than spectacular) method of evaluating this particular skill.

Offensively, Horford is also the better player.

Howard is “more efficient” in that he regularly posts field goal percentages in the upper-50’s, but that is much more of a function of his limited skill set than that of a knock on Horford. Boston’s newest big man (this isn’t fun to say) remains one of the best mid-range shooters in the NBA, and Horford’s athleticism and screen-setting are wildly viable within the confines of a quality NBA offense. On the flip side, Howard is best utilized as a pick-and-roll finisher, and while he does that effectively, it will be the chore of Mike Budenholzer to convince Howard to fill that role in place of the post-ups that Howard will almost undoubtedly request.

To be clear, this is not a “slam Dwight Howard” event, but rather a reinforcement that Al Horford is very good at basketball. Howard, as he enters his 11th season in the NBA, remains a very nice player (and a better rebounder than Horford) that was perhaps the best available center on the market not named Al Horford, but make no mistake, this is a downgrade by any objective measure (including any number of advanced statistics) unless Howard suddenly regains peak form despite the wear and tear of both age and injury.

The Financial Stuff

If there is a bright spot here, it is that Howard comes at a lesser cost than Horford. Unfortunately, the difference is slight enough for 2016-2017 that it won’t greatly benefit Atlanta in terms of upgrading the roster for the coming season.

Howard’s contract runs only three seasons, while Horford would have been granted a five-year pact that took the versatile big man through his age-34 season. Still, Howard’s “discounted” rate stands above $20 million per season, and by nature of the Bazemore re-signing, the Hawks are effectively “capped out” unless the team moves on from the likes of Tiago Splitter and/or Mike Scott in the coming days.

Trades are, of course, possible, but Atlanta has a major need at backup point guard and if Splitter is moved for space, the Hawks will also be searching for a backup center that is superior to Mike Muscala (or Edy Tavares). That center issue would become doubly magnified, as Howard should be seen as something of an injury risk given the aforementioned injury history.

At this moment, the Hawks are left with approximately $3.8 million in salary cap space, with another $3.33 million that could be cleared immediately by declining Scott’s team option. The free agent market has been a spending party, though, and acquiring a serviceable backup point guard (and another forward?) would be a challenge at the $7 million range, much less for the $3.8 million currently available.

Did the Hawks botch this?

In a word, yes.

Dwight Howard, in a vacuum, is a perfectly reasonable addition to a playoff-caliber team, and at less than $24 million per season over only three years, it isn’t a ridiculous overpay. However, that contract did not appear to sit well with Al Horford, and even if the Hawks came to terms with the now-departed All-Star, the team was reportedly marketing Paul Millsap on the trade market as a way to lessen the damage of signing another high-priced center.

Could the three have co-existed?... maybe. I’ve previously argued (across various platforms) that a three-way split of the 96 minutes available at power forward and center would have worked for Howard, Horford and Millsap, but that removes any ego from the equation. One of these players, in a reasonable world, would have come off the bench, and no one in the NBA making north of $20 million would appear eager to make that sacrifice.

Plainly, this problem could have been avoided by passing on Dwight Howard in favor of other alternatives. Do the Hawks have any faith in Tiago Splitter? Maybe not, but pursuing lower-cost alternatives in the Bismack Biyombo/Ian Mahinmi mold would have been more cost effective and, perhaps more importantly, given the Hawks the ammunition needed to fire the full five-year max contract at Horford. Yes, the Hawks would have needed to clear more space (bye-bye, Tiago) in that scenario to make it work, but the ego management could have been easier.

“Running it back” was not a scenario that excited many Atlanta Hawks fans this summer, and it is easy to see why. The Hawks fell well short of challenging the Cavs in back-to-back playoff series, but Atlanta could have added an improvement at center (if that was the desired route) or left Splitter and Muscala in place while searching for a hybrid forward like Jared Dudley, Marvin Williams, Solomon Hill or even Luol Deng. That was the improvement that made the most sense, largely because the duo of top-25 players in Horford and Millsap would remain in place.

What happens now?

The Atlanta Hawks are worse on July 2nd than they were in May. Frankly, this isn’t up for debate.

The infusion of young talent with DeAndre Bembry and Taurean Prince brightens the future considerably, but when it comes to the current roster in terms of playing basketball in the present, it has been downgraded. No matter what you think of Jeff Teague, the duo of Teague and Dennis Schröder would be a sharp upgrade over Schröder as the starter and a run-of-the-mill NBA backup point guard. Throw in the fact that, again, Horford is a better player than Howard, and you have a problem in the short term.

Are the Hawks a playoff team in the East as currently constructed? Probably, but if you squint hard enough, it isn’t hard to find a way where that doesn’t happen. If Schröder plateaus... if Howard runs into injury trouble... if Bazemore regresses.... let’s just agree that it isn’t impossible to think this could happen. After all, the Hawks won “only” 48 games in 2015-2016 with a superior roster.

I will freely admit that the Hawks could have another trick or two up their collective sleeve, and this is an open-ended evaluation as a result. Atlanta absolutely has to add a point guard (or two) in the near future, and there are pieces (Splitter, Scott, Hardaway Jr., etc.) that could be moved without too much effort. Still, it would be difficult to find a trade on the market that greatly shifts this franchise’s direction for 2016-2017, as it is apparently resigned to hitching the wagon to Dwight Howard and Dennis Schröder.

——

On the eve of the NBA Draft, I roundly defended the front office for sending Teague away at an optimal time while prioritizing the future and extracting value from an asset that was likely moving on in a year. Today, the optimism of that mindset has largely evaporated, as the Hawks have added a declining asset at the center position while simultaneously opening the franchise up for another major decision with Paul Millsap beginning in 364 days.

The Atlanta Hawks are worse, both in the present and in the future, as a result of the moves executed in this summer’s free agency period.

It’s not your fault, Kent Bazemore.

Edited July 20, 2016 by HawkItus

[Buzzard]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Highlights:

A few thoughts on Dwight without much meat on the bone.

Bazemore

• Feels like an overpay but prob market value
• Concern about his 3pt shooting dropping 2nd half & playoffs
• Might have already seen his best - will have to shoot like last year with his athleticism expected to wain over the course of his deal

THJr

• Should be next guy in rotation ahead of Prince and Bembry
• Watching for 2nd year jump after 1 year in the system
• Can't afford a slow start
• Best thing is only 24, if  he can uptick his 3pt% would be key
• Biggest worry is defense - one of the rookies could pass him there (cohost:  not as down on his defense, gave good effort)
• Both higher on both Bembry and Prince long-term

 

Predictions for wins this season:  44 wins from guest host and Rowland hints that his prediction will be less than that.

 

 

I agree with Baze. We paid market value to keep him; and I am thinking the same, not to much more upside to hope for. THJr. hopefully gets his shot down and becomes a better finisher. Both bring something to the table we need; but neither will ever be a star.

I have high hopes for Prince to overtake them both in the next two years. Bembry, we will see but I think he can at least be a role/bench player. Thabo is excellent insurance to have on our bench.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Buzzard

[Diesel]

59 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

The Atlanta Hawks are worse on July 2nd than they were in May. Frankly, this isn’t up for debate.

Wow.  Maybe buddy is Supes.

However, maybe this question is up for Debate.   In May we had a guy who arguably could have been playing soft trying to get to his next contract... vs. having a guy who is playing to bring his name the respeck it deserves.   A motivated Dwight is miles better than Horford, however, I guess the comparison is these two at this age.   I will concede that losing Teague means something.  However, I'm really happy with the signing of Jack, Delany, and Humph.  The thing now is how much better will we be with a return of Tiago and all these other pieces. 

 

 

 

 

[Gray Mule]

From the rather lengthy article above, we find that someone has licked all the red off our candy......

1- We now find that Horford is far superior to Howard as a center in the NBA.  Atlanta gave away a

player who was an all star, superior rebounder, superior shooter, superior IQ.  They replaced him

with a slow, crippled has been  who can no longer compete in the NBA.

2- Dennis has no help whatsoever at the point guard position and the Hawks are hurting bad there because

they will not be able to sign anyone as backup because they have no cap space.  Evidently Jarrett Jack and

Malcom Delaney are both a complete waste of money.

3- Not only did Atlanta blow it by letting Horford get away, they insulted Millsap so bad that he will no

longer wish to be here.

4- Not only is our center an old, washed up has been, they have no back up capable of being NBA ready

and will all either be traded or released.

AIN'T LIFE GREAT FOR ALL HAWK FANS !!

Did I read all this in the article?  No.  But, I sure found them broadly hinted at!

 

[macdaddy]

12 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

From the rather lengthy article above, we find that someone has licked all the red off our candy......

1- We now find that Horford is far superior to Howard as a center in the NBA.  Atlanta gave away a

player who was an all star, superior rebounder, superior shooter, superior IQ.  They replaced him

with a slow, crippled has been  who can no longer compete in the NBA.

2- Dennis has no help whatsoever at the point guard position and the Hawks are hurting bad there because

they will not be able to sign anyone as backup because they have no cap space.  Evidently Jarrett Jack and

Malcom Delaney are both a complete waste of money.

3- Not only did Atlanta blow it by letting Horford get away, they insulted Millsap so bad that he will no

longer wish to be here.

4- Not only is our center an old, washed up has been, they have no back up capable of being NBA ready

and will all either be traded or released.

AIN'T LIFE GREAT FOR ALL HAWK FANS !!

Did I read all this in the article?  No.  But, I sure found them broadly hinted at!

 

Good stuff but to be honest I'm still waiting to hear SOMETHING  from Millsap.    I mean he is the leader of the team with Horf and Teague gone but we haven't heard a peep from him.   

[Buzzard]

57 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Wow.  Maybe buddy is Supes.

However, maybe this question is up for Debate.   In May we had a guy who arguably could have been playing soft trying to get to his next contract... vs. having a guy who is playing to bring his name the respeck it deserves.   A motivated Dwight is miles better than Horford, however, I guess the comparison is these two at this age.   I will concede that losing Teague means something.  However, I'm really happy with the signing of Jack, Delany, and Humph.  The thing now is how much better will we be with a return of Tiago and all these other pieces. 

 

 

 

 

 

On the Dwight front: This is the only article I have seen that said Howard was not a great signing for us. Even the biggest Hawk Haters of all-time at ESPN said getting Dwight locked up for three years will be an enviable value next season when other top players are getting 25 million and up next season.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Diesel said:

Wow.  Maybe buddy is Supes.

However, maybe this question is up for Debate.   In May we had a guy who arguably could have been playing soft trying to get to his next contract... vs. having a guy who is playing to bring his name the respeck it deserves.   A motivated Dwight is miles better than Horford, however, I guess the comparison is these two at this age.   I will concede that losing Teague means something.  However, I'm really happy with the signing of Jack, Delany, and Humph.  The thing now is how much better will we be with a return of Tiago and all these other pieces. 

I 100% agree it is up for debate.  We are talking about a freaking 48 win team that got swept in the second round of the playoffs and it is beyond debate that this team could do  better?  Give me a break.

[Gray Mule]

Well, the Hawks fell from 60 wins to 48.  Still, that ain't too bad.

On the podcast, one says he's hopeful that this Hawk team will win 45.

The other, holding out, says he's stuck on 42.

If things continue to decline, we expect some of these "experts" to have us in the lottery !!