ESPN projected standings - next season....

[AHF]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Indy will probably have to jettison Monta Elli (have-it-all).  He doesn't play nicely with other point g's.  

That is what I am particularly interested to see.  I have a hard time seeing Jeff and Monta working well together.  Jeff is best with the ball in his hands and if Monta is his normal black hole self then I think it is a barrier to Teague having any kind of big breakout.  Teague is much better with the ball than off the ball to date in his career.

Opposing guards will also be licking their chops looking at that pair on defense.

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, AHF said:

That is what I am particularly interested to see.  I have a hard time seeing Jeff and Monta working well together.  Jeff is best with the ball in his hands and if Monta is his normal black hole self then I think it is a barrier to Teague having any kind of big breakout.  Teague is much better with the ball than off the ball to date in his career.

Opposing guards will also be licking their chops looking at that pair on defense.

What I'm expecting is Monta Elli(have-it-all) to yell at Teague and for Jeff to get some JSmoove-era PTSD flashbacks and go back into his rookie-shell.  Oh and then he'll twist his ankle again ... and again ...

[AHF]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

What I'm expecting is Monta Elli(have-it-all) to yell at Teague and for Jeff to get some JSmoove-era PTSD flashbacks and go back into his rookie-shell.  Oh and then he'll twist his ankle again ... and again ...

I don't expect that but there are two things I'm lookin at closely:

#1 - Ellis Is a Ball Hog Who Limits Opportunities for His Backcourt Mates

Last full season playing together:

Ellis 28.1 USG%

Curry 24.4% USG%

First full season apart:

Curry 26.4% USG% 

 

Prior season:

Jennings 25.9% USG%

First full season playing with Ellis:

Ellis 26.3% USG%

Jennings: 23.7% USG%

 

Prior season:

Hill 23.8% USG%

First full season playing with Ellis:

Ellis 21.2% USG%

Hill 15.8% USG%

 

So that equates to a multiple % drop for all Ellis' backcourt partners of any real note.  Will Teague follow that pattern?  Big question.

 

#2 - Paul George Will Be the Top Usage Starter On the Pacers

Now also note that Teague was the highest USG% starter on the Hawks at 26.6% last year.  The next closest starter was Sap at 24.3%.  (The prior season is was Teague leading at 25.3% and Sap following at 23.8%).

Paul George has had a usage rate the last two seasons of 32.8% and 30.4%.  That means someone is dominating the ball in Indy in a way that no teammate of Teague's did in Atlanta.

 

These two things in conjunction lead me to wonder whether Teague will have the touches to really break out numbers that dwarf his Atlanta production.  On their face, they suggest he will likely see the ball less in Indy than he did in Atlanta.

[Dejay]

3 hours ago, kg01 said:

Well, technically, BSPN makes money off their crap too so whatchu got to say 'bout that?

I don't see them building billion-dollar casinos in Vegas. Not yet anyway...

Edited July 26, 2016 by Dejay

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't expect that but there are two things I'm lookin at closely:

Blah, blah, blah, nimbers, nimbers ...

These two things in conjunction lead me to wonder whether Teague will have the touches to really break out numbers that dwarf his Atlanta production.  On their face, they suggest he will likely see the ball less in Indy than he did in Atlanta.

Agreed.

9 minutes ago, Dejay said:

I don't see them building billion-dollar casinos in Vegas. Not yet anyway...

You don't think they could if they wanted to?

[Plainview1981]

4 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

ESPN takes a look at the teams in the east and their "experts" tell us where each team will end up.

#2 - Boston Celtics..............Why?  They have Al Horford!

#6- Atlanta Hawks.............Why?  They don't have Al Horford!

They ignore everyone else.  Gee whiz.  Hawks didn't know how great AH  really is?  Gee!

Do you miss him already?? 

No matter if you like Al or not, it is funny how nobody gave a f*** about him until he went to Boston. Now  he is an all time great all of a sudden.

[Dejay]

5 hours ago, Hotlanta1981 said:

No matter if you like Al or not, it is funny how nobody gave a f*** about him until he went to Boston. Now  he is an all time great all of a sudden.

Agreed. Here, he was a good player but that's about it. In Boston, he's Wilt, Hakeem, and David Robinson mixed together who's going to lead them to 60-win seasons...

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Dejay said:

Agreed. Here, he was a good player but that's about it. In Boston, he's Wilt, Hakeem, and David Robinson mixed together who's going to lead them to 60-win seasons...

"You're both wrong.  Al's not Hakeem or DRob .... he's better than both o' them combined." - NBASupes

[High5]

I think Horford definitely makes Boston better, but I don't expect their record to improve. I think the 48 from last year was a fluke and Horford won't make up the difference in the win column. Unless one of their young players has a breakout year. They'll be a tougher out in the postseason, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them bounced in the first round again. It's possible they still make a big trade before the deadline, though. 

As for the us, we have too many new faces, unproven players, and players with questionable durability. I could see us ending anywhere 1-8 to be honest. So that probably means I'm most comfortable with predicting 4/5 and about 45-48 wins. 

[Spursfanpeacemaker]

Hawks will fly under the radar, which is good, not a lot of distraction.

[thecampster]

One of the biggest mistakes people make when analyzing how good a team will be next year, is they only count the players added. They rarely count the players lost. 

Boston gained a Horford but lost a Sullinger and Turner. They only mildly addressed their pressing need of scoring inside (Al doesn't really do his scoring inside). They didn't have a need for a defensive big or a soft big. The team loses toughness in Sullinger who was at least a very big body who could box out (8.3 rebounds in 23.38 minutes/game). Looking at 82games.com. When Al Horford was on the floor, the Hawks grabbed 45.8% of rebounding chances. Off the floor, the Hawks improved to 48.4%. Showing that the Hawks were a better rebounding team with Horford on the bench. Compare that to Sullinger, while on the court the Celtics grabbed 50.6% of rebounds, off the court, 49.4%. Losing Sullinger provides a mild loss in rebounding for the Celtics. Adding Horford further exaggerates the loss. Although Horford improves a few things for the Celts, he weakens them in areas they were previously strong.  Now adding in Howard's numbers. The Rockets were a 49.6% rebounding team with Howard on the floor, but dropped to 48.9% without. 

Looking at rebounding alone, it is easy to discern that Losing Horford and Gaining Howard equals a net improvement in rebounding for the Hawks. While Gaining Horford and losing Sullinger is a net loss in rebounding for the Celts. 

As for Indiana, they are going to suffer terribly on the perimeter.  Their Center position is not set. Although they did improved from last year, the improvement isn't a great as advertised. Al Jefferson could only manage 23 minutes a game last season. Thaddeus Young is a solid addition, but the loss of several key players (Mihinmi, Hill, others), minimize the additions. It took 57 wins to win the East last year. Indiana finished with an impressive and unexpected 45 wins. It is hard to see them making the jump over Cleveland, Toronto, Atlanta. Atlanta won a disappointing 48 games, missing a 25 minute per game player in Splitter and dealing with players recovering from off-season injuries (Korver/Thabo).

Assuming no crazy injuries, Atlanta's continuity, + improved rebounding should easily keep them ahead of Indiana. The teams I'm bothered the most by are New York and Chicago. I really have no idea what to think of New York....if magic happens there for one season...everyone stays healthy, they could be really good.

[Peoriabird]

Chicago has no spacing on offense and will struggle to score.

[Sothron]

I honestly do not see how Horford magically makes the Celtics the second best team in the East. It makes them better, sure, but they still have no go to guy on offense.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I honestly do not see how Horford magically makes the Celtics the second best team in the East. It makes them better, sure, but they still have no go to guy on offense.

I'm on about a 6-month long anti-Selltic bender.  I've been saying for months that they're the most overrated bunch of middling "starters" in the league.  I said it before and I'll keep saying it, their record is significantly overstated due to having 3 tanking teams in their division.  So all these folks saying, "Uh, well they went from 20-something wins to 43, then 48 so of course they'll win 50+ this year" need to look a little deeper into those records.

Are they better for adding Alicia?  Maybe.  This ain't a video game, you can't just sign a guy and automatically expect your "rating" to go up 15 points or w/e.  Like @thecampster said, you also have to factor in the players they lost.  Turner was actually pretty important for them especially since Thomas is decidedly not a point guard and certainly can't guard his position.     2nd best team in the East?  How?  Why?  Make a case for IND and I can listen to that.  Tell me TOR and, ok, I can see it.  Not BOS though.  That's media-driven, surface-level "analysis" at best.

And another thing, can we stop overrating Stevens as a coach please?  "Oh, he gets his guys to play hard and they all buy in".  Ok, that's because he's coaching a bunch of hustle guys and no one with the cache to challenge him.  It's the closest thing to a college team in the NBA.  Send him Cousins or Westbrook (which they're apparently supposed to be acquiring for fish heads n' rice) and we'll see how "great" he is when he has a guy who knows he's more important than the coach.

[ATLSmith]

On 7/26/2016 at 8:38 AM, Thomas said:

Funny how ESPN didn't place that much value on Al last year. Oh yeah, he wasn't wearing green.

Was in a meeting with a guy from Chicago yesterday.  We got to talking basketball and he said, "I don't get how Horford is suddenly a superstar.  It doesn't make any sense."

23 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Everyone in the east is relying heavily on malcontents and medical staff.    It should be interesting.     I think Indy is being seriously overlooked though.   

I can totally see Indy sneaking in and taking the 2 seed.  A lot will be dependent on how well Nate McMillan can coach the team.  Should be an interesting season for sure.

[Thomas]

1 hour ago, ATLSmith said:

 I can totally see Indy sneaking in and taking the 2 seed.  A lot will be dependent on how well Nate McMillan can coach the team.  Should be an interesting season for sure.

Think the overall quality of players are a good bit better offensively than Nate is as a coach. He is so defensive and slow pace of play oriented. Just adds to the questions people have of what is he or Bird going to do with Monta. Absolutely not Nate's kind of player. 

[High5]

2 hours ago, Sothron said:

I honestly do not see how Horford magically makes the Celtics the second best team in the East. It makes them better, sure, but they still have no go to guy on offense.

We won 60 games without a "go to guy." And Thomas can take over games occasionally. Of course, they don't have a Millsap, and Crowder is basically a worse version of DMC. 

[Guest]

Come to think of it, not only is BOS being overrated, so is DET.  They'll be a playoff team but that's about it.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Come to think of it, not only is BOS being overrated, so is DET.  They'll be a playoff team but that's about it.

Agreed. I think the Pistons are a .500 team this year. I just don't understand why some think they will be so great.

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, Spud2Nique said:

Agreed. I think the Pistons are a .500 team this year. I just don't understand why some think they will be so great.

They have no point guard to speak of and Drummond is vastly overrated