Face Facts - It's been downhill since Ferry left

[JackB1]

Bud should stick to doing what he does best...coach.  It's been painfully obvious the downhill path we've been on since Ferry has been gone.

So many questionable moves and now I don't know what to make of this current team.  We don't play defense....Howard plays with effort once every 5 games...

Bazemore is a huge diseaster....and now Ilyasova???  How could Bud give Bazemore that big contract???  I am at a loss.

[HawkItus]

lol 61 win season and Conference Final showing.  But, ok.

[Guest]

It's gone downhill because of Ferry and his "flexible" contracts which left us with no Bird rights and his poor drafting.

I agree we need a real GM, not Chillcox, but his (and by extension Budz') failings as front officemen are not an indication that Ferry walked on water.

It's 2 separate things.

[AHF]

Ferry did not walk on water by any means and did not leave an overflowing well of talent for his successors, but I sure felt better about the GM role when he was here even though I didn't always agree with him.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

Ferry did not walk on water by any means and did not leave an overflowing well of talent for his successors, but I sure felt better about the GM role when he was here even though I didn't always agree with him.

Ferry was, at the very least, a real GM and not just a puppet like Chillcox.  At least he could walk into a trade discussion with other teams and not have to say, "Um, lemme check with my boss a-fore I can agree to those terms ..."

That is the closest you'll ever get of me praising Dan E.

Yuk, I should delete this post. 

[Lurker]

I don't think people realize how damaging Ferry's drafting was. Yes, he was absolutely excellent at getting rid of bad contracts but with much better drafting (instead of grabbing a guy because we NEED a player in the frontcourt or because they absolutely fit our system), a lot of this mess isn't an issue.

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Ferry was, at the very least, a real GM and not just a puppet like Chillcox.  At least he could walk into a trade discussion with other teams and not have to say, "Um, lemme check with my boss a-fore I can agree to those terms ..."

That is the closest you'll ever get of me praising Dan E.

Yuk, I should delete this post. 

Yeah, I think that was a big deal actually.  If you look back, when we hired Ferry I said his tenure in Cleveland was not confidence inspiring but that I was excited to have someone with actual authority in charge of personnel and with a long enough contract to have the security to take his vision forward.  Regardless of who that guy is, you need that type of situation for management to blossom, IMO.  If you hire the wrong guy into that role, you take your hit and try to do better with your next hire.  We had that security and continuity and then got Gearon'd.

[JackB1]

51 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

lol 61 win season and Conference Final showing.  But, ok.

But what has he left us with today?  

[HawkItus]

59 minutes ago, JackB1 said:

But what has he left us with today?  

2008–09	NBA	Eastern	4th	Southeast	2nd	47	35	.573	12	Won First Round (Heat) 4–3 Lost Conference Semifinals (Cavaliers) 4–0
2009–10	NBA	Eastern	3rd	Southeast	2nd	53	29	.646	6	Won First Round (Bucks) 4–3 Lost Conference Semifinals (Magic) 4–0	Jamal Crawford (SMOY)
2010–11	NBA	Eastern	5th	Southeast	3rd	44	38	.537	14	Won First Round (Magic) 4–2 Lost Conference Semifinals (Bulls) 4–2
2011–12	NBA	Eastern	5th	Southeast	2nd	40	26	.606	6	Lost First Round (Celtics) 4–2
2012–13	NBA	Eastern	6th	Southeast	2nd	44	38	.537	22	Lost First Round (Pacers) 4–2
2013–14	NBA	Eastern	8th	Southeast	4th	38	44	.463	16	Lost First Round (Pacers) 4–3
2014–15	NBA	Eastern	1st	Southeast	1st	60	22	.732	—	Won First Round (Nets) 4–2 Won Conference Semifinals (Wizards) 4–2 Lost Conference Finals (Cavaliers) 4–0	Mike Budenholzer (COY)
2015–16	NBA	Eastern	4th	Southeast	2nd	48	34	.585	—	Won First Round (Celtics) 4–2 Lost Conference Semifinals (Cavaliers) 4–0

Show me the regression

[sturt]

There's nothing that explicitly shows up on the radar as "Ferry would have done this different than Budcox." Sure, it's all conjecture on anyone's part, but is my radar really missing something obvious here?

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, sturt said:

There's nothing that explicitly shows up on the radar as "Ferry would have done this different than Budcox." Sure, it's all conjecture on anyone's part, but is my radar really missing something obvious here?

It is mostly conjecture for anyone.  Would he have handled Al differently?  Would he have done something different in the draft?  Would he have found a gem in FA or trade like Sap, Thabo, DMC, etc.?  Would he have traded for Tiago Splitter without extracting some draft asset?  The biggest question to me is:  Would he have signed Bazemore to an expensive long-term deal? Feels like he would absolutely not have done that as that type of deal for a non-star is what he stayed away from pretty religiously (arguably to a detriment with some of our guys).

I think the biggest change is that Ferry brought in a coach and players who fit a ball-movement Spurs type system.  We looked like that when he left.  We no longer look like that today.  

Nobody can answer for sure as it is all hypothetical but I like the structure of having an empowered GM better than where we are today.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, sturt said:

There's nothing that explicitly shows up on the radar as "Ferry would have done this different than Budcox." Sure, it's all conjecture on anyone's part, but is my radar really missing something obvious here?

@sturt Your radar is broken. 

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

I don't think people realize how damaging Ferry's drafting was. Yes, he was absolutely excellent at getting rid of bad contracts but with much better drafting (instead of grabbing a guy because we NEED a player in the frontcourt or because they absolutely fit our system), a lot of this mess isn't an issue.

Ferry had 4 1st round picks in his tenure:

#23 - JJenkins, #17 - Dennis, #16- Bebe and #15 Adrein Payne - Payne is the only one that stands out based on draft slot.

 

[sturt]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

The biggest question to me is:  Would he have signed Bazemore to an expensive long-term deal? Feels like he would absolutely not have done that as that type of deal for a non-star is what he stayed away from pretty religiously (arguably to a detriment with some of our guys).

Yes. This is to my mind the key question in that discussion. I could maybe go with "Feels like he would not have"... I'm hard-pressed to get to "Feels like he would absolutely not have." What is that evidence that gets you there? I can be convinced otherwise.

16 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think the biggest change is that Ferry brought in a coach and players who fit a ball-movement Spurs type system.  We looked like that when he left.  We no longer look like that today.

Brings up maybe a second key question.... would Ferry have signed Howard? Because, really, that goes to this point. Until this year, we've been that ball-movement team, but last year we simply didn't shoot as well as the year before.

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, sturt said:

Yes. This is to my mind the key question in that discussion. I could maybe go with "Feels like he would not have"... I'm hard-pressed to get to "Feels like he would absolutely not have." What is that evidence that gets you there? I can be convinced otherwise.

Brings up maybe a second key question.... would Ferry have signed Howard? Because, really, that goes to this point. Until this year, we've been that ball-movement team, but last year we simply didn't shoot as well as the year before.

I don't think you can say Ferry absolutely wouldn't have resigned Bazemore at this price or traded for Splitter or done anything differently.  We are speaking in hypotheticals.  My view is that Ferry dumped the long-term deals like that and structured deals so they were clearly under market or did not have long run times so it feels like he wouldn't have to me.  

Dwight is a good question as well.  Don't know.  He doesn't fit the style of play Ferry brought in but Ferry clearly had interest in him and publicly acknowledged as much when he was here.  So that is more of an unknown to me as I don't see anything in Ferry's past behavior that leads to me go one way or the other.

[macdaddy]

Whether Ferry is a great GM or not surely can be debated.   But our performance, both on the court and by the front office, has been shoddy ever since he left.   

[HawkItus]

Beyond the JJ trade and the Sap signing, what exactly did Ferry do?  Bud brought in probably the biggest FA draw since JJ.  Oh and Ferry wanted DH as well.   The biggest knock on Bud is that guys aren't shooting well the last 2 seasons.  But, he brought in DH, Timmy, Prince and Bembry.  He might have missed on Baze.  If Ferry was here would he have signed JYD?  Would we be calling Deng a bust signing like the Baze signing?   To me it is a wash at worst.  Folks just love to champion the what if and poo poo the what is.

[macdaddy]

4 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

Beyond the JJ trade and the Sap signing, what exactly did Ferry do?  Bud brought in probably the biggest FA draw since JJ.  Oh and Ferry wanted DH as well.   The biggest knock on Bud is that guys aren't shooting well the last 2 seasons.  But, he brought in DH, Timmy, Prince and Bembry.  He might have missed on Baze.  If Ferry was here would he have signed JYD?  Would we be calling Deng a bust signing like the Baze signing?   To me it is a wash at worst.  Folks just love to champion the what if and poo poo the what is.

Guys aren't shooting well because they are bad shooters.  It's not like they are slumping.   Bud filled the roster with bad shooters.

Prince and Bembry haven't shown anything yet.   Timmy has contributed big to about 15% of the games since he's been here and we've been a wildly inconsistent and defensively unsteady team with Dwight.   

I'm not saying Ferry is the greatest but Bud's track record as GM isn't good right now.  That may change and i hope it does.

[HawkItus]

11 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Guys aren't shooting well because they are bad shooters.  It's not like they are slumping.   Bud filled the roster with bad shooters.

Prince and Bembry haven't shown anything yet.   Timmy has contributed big to about 15% of the games since he's been here and we've been a wildly inconsistent and defensively unsteady team with Dwight.   

I'm not saying Ferry is the greatest but Bud's track record as GM isn't good right now.  That may change and i hope it does.

Again who brought in the bad shooters?  Baze was originally a Ferry guy.  Thabo was a Ferry guy.  Dennis is a Ferry guy.  Sap is a Ferry guy.  Moose is a Ferry guy.   So why is Bud getting the blame?  Who is the guy he brought in that is ruining our season?

[AHF]

49 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

Again who brought in the bad shooters?  Baze was originally a Ferry guy.  Thabo was a Ferry guy.  Dennis is a Ferry guy.  Sap is a Ferry guy.  Moose is a Ferry guy.   So why is Bud getting the blame?  Who is the guy he brought in that is ruining our season?

Under Ferry our 3pt shooting was 37.1%, 36.3% and 38%.  In the seasons where Ferry wasn't setting the roster since he has been gone, we shot 35% and 34% (this year).