Let's Not Start the BS!!-Can We Agree?

[KB21]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

It is not a surprise or secret that every champion is a team that made the most of key draft assets.  Those teams capture huge value propositions in the draft that you just can't get in FA no matter how good you are unless a group of superstars collude to join your team.  (And even then they aren't likely to join unless you have someone good enough to be an MVP or Finals MVP that you already drafted).

I don't disagree with that.

Here's the thing though.  Finding that star in the draft relies mostly upon luck.  Golden State didn't get Stephen Curry because they were great at identifying talent, IMO.  They got him because they were lucky other teams undervalued what he brought to the table.  Curry was downgraded due to his size, lack of top level athleticism, and lack of a true position.  There were 5 teams that passed on him, with one team passing on him twice.   There were no guarantees, and Stephen Curry wasn't considered a "Can't miss prospect". 

That very same scouting staff used their next first round pick on Ekpe Udoh, so that alone tells me that they aren't magical when it comes to identifying talent.

[KB21]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

One was the #5 pick, has never averaged more than 11 points per game, has a career .503% TS% and has never made the playoffs.  

The other is 3 years younger, was the #17 pick, just averaged 18 per game, put up .533% TS%, and has made the playoffs every season of his career while putting up an impressive 25 points on .588% TS% to go with 8 apg in the playoffs his first time as a starter.

 

I'm quite ready to say that Rubio has been below #5 pick expectations for his impact on the team and his cripplingly bad offense while that Dennis has been great value for the #17 pick and is on path of much greater promise for future improvement.

Agree, and the arrow is still pointing up on Schröder.  Rubio is what he is.

[HawkItus]

That the Colonel came here is proof positive that we are on an upward trajectory.   Look at the guys who put there names in the hat.  Orlando did not get that same response.

[NBASupes]

32 minutes ago, Lurker said:

But if Millsap goes you're naturally going to be a loser, like Brooklyn has been. A loser in the WORST situation possible because it'll be the high lottery.

If Ricky Rubio is a bust, Dennis Schröder is a bust. 

Rubio is not a bust. He's on par with his talent and success. His issue is who was drafted after him named Steph Curry

[AHF]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

I don't disagree with that.

Here's the thing though.  Finding that star in the draft relies mostly upon luck.  Golden State didn't get Stephen Curry because they were great at identifying talent, IMO.  They got him because they were lucky other teams undervalued what he brought to the table.  Curry was downgraded due to his size, lack of top level athleticism, and lack of a true position.  There were 5 teams that passed on him, with one team passing on him twice.   There were no guarantees, and Stephen Curry wasn't considered a "Can't miss prospect". 

That very same scouting staff used their next first round pick on Ekpe Udoh, so that alone tells me that they aren't magical when it comes to identifying talent.

You are darn right you have to get lucky to find that star but if you don't gamble and get lucky you never separate yourself from the pack.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, HawkItus said:

That the Colonel came here is proof positive that we are on an upward trajectory.   Look at the guys who put there names in the hat.  Orlando did not get that same response.

I also think it was the minor deal that we did with the Warriors for Heremy Tyler a few years back to help them financially with their roster flexibility. That's probably one of the reasons they gave us permission to even speak with Schlenk.

[Alex]

On 5/26/2017 at 7:17 AM, NBASupes said:

You gotta find pieces who fit what you want to do long term. Without that, you aren't making moves the way you would like. 

Curry was a lottery pick for a reason. 

And never gets to Golden State if the Timberwolves GM at the time had a clue.  

[Guard]

On 5/26/2017 at 10:07 AM, KB21 said:

I don't disagree with that.

Here's the thing though.  Finding that star in the draft relies mostly upon luck.  Golden State didn't get Stephen Curry because they were great at identifying talent, IMO.  They got him because they were lucky other teams undervalued what he brought to the table.  Curry was downgraded due to his size, lack of top level athleticism, and lack of a true position.  There were 5 teams that passed on him, with one team passing on him twice.   There were no guarantees, and Stephen Curry wasn't considered a "Can't miss prospect". 

That very same scouting staff used their next first round pick on Ekpe Udoh, so that alone tells me that they aren't magical when it comes to identifying talent.

Great drafting organizations don't hit on every draft pick. The Spurs, OKC, and the Warriors have their misses. You step outside of the NBA and look at teams like New England, the Cubs,  the Seahawks, the Dodgers and Green Bay. They don't hit every time on high draft picks. It's impossible. 

Does that devalue the draft?  Hell no. If it did, you'd see more teams building through free agency and going the treadmill route out of fear of missing.  

[Kimsey]

On 5/26/2017 at 8:32 AM, hazer said:

They were on their way with Ferryholzer. Then ASG couldn't get out of their own way. This is v 2.0 of that path. With better/stable ownership and what I feel like will be a comparable if not superior GM to Ferry. Keep it stable, scout and draft and develop well, Bud back doing what he does best, win again, THEN the arena improvements and ATL lure will finally come into play. Will take a few years to set. 

That's not true tho. Ferry was mediocre at best in the draft. He made some nice trades. But he got lucky with the Joe trade. Billy King is the worst GM ever, across all multiverses. I wonder how GMs like King and Knight are able to get in these positions. Nepotism and networking I would assume. 

 

Edited May 27, 2017 by Kimsey

[hazer]

14 minutes ago, Kimsey said:

That's not true tho. Ferry was mediocre at best in the draft. He made some nice trades. But he got lucky with the Joe trade. Billy King is the worst GM ever, across all multiverses. I wonder how GMs like King and Knight are able to get in these positions. Nepotism and networking I would assume. 

 

I said on there way, in the right direction. Not that they were there ;)

[Kimsey]

31 minutes ago, hazer said:

I said on there way, in the right direction. Not that they were there ;)

Gotcha. I  feel when Ferry is brought up, he's some kind of super GM. He got the team out of the Joe nightmare which was key. Brought in Sap and DMC. But to get this franchise in a greater direction, he would have had to sell high on our KG, Pierce, and Allen which I don't believe he would have done. 

I'm curious how he will perform with his next GM job.

 

Edited May 27, 2017 by Kimsey

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Kimsey said:

Gotcha. I  feel when Ferry is brought up, he's some kind of super GM. He got the team out of the Joe nightmare which was key. Brought in Sap and DMC. But to get this franchise in a greater direction, he would have had to sell high on our KG, Pierce, and Allen which I don't believe he would have done. 

I'm curious how he will perform with his next GM job.

 

We've never had  players of that caliber to begin with.

[hazer]

1 hour ago, hazer said:

I said on there way, in the right direction. Not that they were there ;)

Their*

[Kimsey]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We've never had  players of that caliber to begin with.

"Our" would be Millsap and Horford. They got value/Prince for Teague which most would agree was a good move. They had their chance to get something at their peak value but would rather max these two out.  

[JTB]

5 hours ago, Kimsey said:

That's not true tho. Ferry was mediocre at best in the draft. He made some nice trades. But he got lucky with the Joe trade. Billy King is the worst GM ever, across all multiverses. I wonder how GMs like King and Knight are able to get in these positions. Nepotism and networking I would assume. 

 

I'm serious when I say this...I truly believe billy king was way before his time with what he was trying to do in Atlanta and that was to have each player be versatile. He tried to make a team of no true positions based on how he drafted....fast forward to now 2017 this is what the NBA has turned into which are no true positions anymore and lots of versatility within the players today especially with all this small ball stuff. We have SFs playing nearly full time minutes at PF ....True PF playing C....very small SGs in my opinion ...so on and so on.

 

all in all king sucked with the Hawks but being versatile between every position was the goal...just a project before it's time that would probably work better today. Now by no means does this take away from picking Marvin Williams over cp3 or Deron Williams...I'm just making a point on what king was trying to establish.

[KB21]

On 5/26/2017 at 10:14 AM, AHF said:

You are darn right you have to get lucky to find that star but if you don't gamble and get lucky you never separate yourself from the pack.

Is that truly taking the best odds, because it certainly seems like if you are relying on the lottery to produce the savior on the court, 8 times out of 10 you end up like the Kings, Timberwolves, and Lakers and not the Warriors?

The dynamic of the draft at the top of the draft has changed, and too much emphasis is put on youth and athleticism while skill and intangibles are being undervalued.  You might luck into an Anthony Davis or a Karl Anthony Towns, but the problem is, you have to do that again to really get what you want out of the lottery.  When you end up with Julius Randle, Noah Vonleh, and Alex Len, then you don't get as much bang for that buck.  The best player drafted into the NBA since the 2010 draft is Kawhi Leonard, who was the 15th pick in 2011.