Going to the dark side

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

That makes more sense.

He had 2 good thread ideas, a wordsmith he's not.

[AHF]

28 minutes ago, High5 said:

Again, you're completely ignoring basically the entire history of the league, but oh well. No need to keep going in circles. 

Two teams in history have won without a superstar.  The 78 Sonics and the Billups Pistons.  Every other team had that MVP level superstar.  How do these guys get acquired?  Draft, FA or trade.  

Draft - Most have come though lottery picks in the draft so the Hawks have to play in the lottery to get there, IMO, or keep on hoping that they will pull a superstar from the mid-first round.  We all know how likely it is to get a stud from that part of the draft let alone an MVP level superstar.  

21 Bembry

15 Oubre / THJr

15 Payne

16 Bebe

17 Dennis

23 Jenkins

24 Damian Jones

19 Jeff Teague

I don't like the odds if you are hoping to pull the next MVP/Finals MVP with these picks instead of dipping into the lottery.

FA - Teams that have landed a stud in FA include (a) contenders (i.e., Durant to Golden State); (b) premium destinations (i.e., Shaq to LA); and (c) personal reasons combined with contender assets (i.e., LeBron to Cleveland).  Which category does Atlanta fit if anyone thinks this route is viable?

Trades - The trades have been generally a stud who forced his way out and made his team deal him (i.e., Kareem forcing a trade to LA).  Is anyone forcing their way to Atlanta?  No.  So you can't rely on the star forcing his team's hand and you need to have the assets to incent the other team to pull the trigger.

If you accept the premise that you need a superstar to win, then you have to ask yourself which channel is most likely to get you there.  I have said for years that for a team in the Hawks' situation the draft is the key to landing a superstar.  They then have the chance to get the superstar directly or to trade for one with the lottery pick assets.  Until they land a superstar to make it a short putt to a ring by teaming up here, no other superstar is coming via FA, IMO.  You don't have to lay down and die to get into the lottery (see Detroit with the #2 pick in a draft with Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Carmelo and others; see Boston today; etc.) but you better play there and then get lucky.  Let's be real, getting lucky/smart in the draft is key for all these teams.  You get lucky with who is available among the draft pool that year, lucky with the lottery itself, lucky with the picks ahead of you, and lucky in making the right pick or right trade with that asset.  Plenty of luck involved but the impact of that luck on your chances for a ring is very, very real

[KB21]

Here are the two articles that helped shape my view on tanking/rebuilding.

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/03/26/why-teams-should-try-and-get-on-the-treadmill-of-mediocrity/

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/04/02/bad-to-good-the-treadmill-to-mediocrity/

 

Quote

Good teams tend to stay good, Bad teams tend to stay bad but over time everyone trends to 0.500. Yes, you can luck out in the draft but really the draft is a lottery. Your best bet is to find and keep good players (without overpaying them) and keep playing that draft until you hit one.

 

[Peoriabird]

41 minutes ago, AHF said:

Two teams in history have won without a superstar.  The 78 Sonics and the Billups Pistons.  Every other team had that MVP level superstar.  How do these guys get acquired?  Draft, FA or trade.  

Draft - Most have come though lottery picks in the draft so the Hawks have to play in the lottery to get there, IMO, or keep on hoping that they will pull a superstar from the mid-first round.  We all know how likely it is to get a stud from that part of the draft let alone an MVP level superstar.  

21 Bembry

15 Oubre / THJr

15 Payne

16 Bebe

17 Dennis

23 Jenkins

24 Damian Jones

19 Jeff Teague

I don't like the odds if you are hoping to pull the next MVP/Finals MVP with these picks instead of dipping into the lottery.

Here is the other side that no one wants to talk about

3) Al Horford

11) Acie Law

5) Sheldon Williams

2) Marvin Williams

6) Josh Childress

6) Demarr Johnson

10) Jason Terry

10) Adam Keefe

9) Stacie Augmon

10) Rumeal Robinson

5) Jon Koncak

The only pick that would have been close to a star player was Paul Gasol and we traded him for Shareef Abdur Rahim who was a nice player but not a superstar by any stretch.

If we took all of our lottery picks over the past 15 lottery picks in their prime and put them on the same team, they may not win 35 games together.  If fact I would take our non Lottery pick to win straight up!

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, High5 said:

How is it not?

Cleveland drafted Irving #1, traded a #1 to get Love, and then got LeBron back for sentimental reasons who they drafted #1.

Golden State drafted Curry #7 and Thompson #11. 

San Antonio drafted Duncan #1.

Miami drafted Wade #5. 

Dallas drafted Dirk #9. 

Boston drafted Pierce #10 and traded multiple top 10 picks to get Allen and KG.

The stars aligned for Detroit to win a championship. We can try to follow the exception to the rule, but that seems like a horrible idea that hasn't come close to working.

Atlanta is the rule for the Detroit model. While many can try, Atlanta is what will likely happen to your franchise. Many fanbases and orgs use our failure as a bulletpoint. Like I said, if we do this right, it can be great. If we do this wrong like we have in the past or like teams like Sacramento have, then it will not work. 

For me, Get Mo Bamba, Ayton, or Porter Jr then get Zion or Bagley in 2019. At that point, we will have two franchise players to win around. Add Dennis and you got it all figured out. 

[NBASupes]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

3pt Shooting:  If you look at the numbers, the top 3 teams in 3pt% this season are the Western Conference Finalist Spurs, the Eastern Conference Champ Cavs and the Western Conference Champ Warriors.  3 of the conference finalists are also in the top 5 of the list of most 3pt shots attempted (GS, Cle and Boston).  

3pt Defense: Your top teams defensively against the 3 as measured by opponent 3pt% include Warriors (#1), Celtics (#2), and Spurs (#6).  (Those same 3 conference finalist teams are also top 10 in fewest 3pters allowed). 

Rebounding:  Nobody in the conference finals is a top 5 rebounding team.  The Warriors are the only top 10 team (#7) in total rebounds while both the Cavs and Warriors are in the top 10 for defensive rebounds. None of the conference finalists is in the top 10 for offensive rebounding (they range #16-22)

Free Throws:  Nobody in the conference finals is a top 10 free throw team in free throw attempts.  In terms of %, the Spurs are #7 and the Warriors are #10 in FT%.

 

If this season is representative of some type of correlation, these numbers would suggest that you had better be elite shooting your 3's and better be able to defend against them if you want to contend above and beyond everything else.  

I got to give it to Bud, he was on top of this trend. The problem is, your best player can't be Horford. It has to be someone like Curry. The roster has to be balanced. The stars must align. 

[KB21]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

Atlanta is the rule for the Detroit model. While many can try, Atlanta is what will likely happen to your franchise. Many fanbases and orgs use our failure as a bulletpoint. Like I said, if we do this right, it can be great. If we do this wrong like we have in the past or like teams like Sacramento have, then it will not work. 

For me, Get Mo Bamba, Ayton, or Porter Jr then get Zion or Bagley in 2019. At that point, we will have two franchise players to win around. Add Dennis and you got it all figured out. 

...and then when Mo Bamba, Ayton, and Porter Jr. along with the other two end up becoming just more overhyped AAU prospects like Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, DeAngelo Russell......etc, then what do you do?  That's when things spiral out of control.  You are basing your entire plan on acquiring players who haven't even played at the college level yet or in one of the competitive international leagues.

[NBASupes]

Just now, KB21 said:

...and then when Mo Bamba, Ayton, and Porter Jr. along with the other two end up becoming just more overhyped AAU prospects like Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, DeAngelo Russell......etc, then what do you do?  That's when things spiral out of control.  You are basing your entire plan on acquiring players who haven't even played at the college level yet or in one of the competitive international leagues.

All of those guys you mentioned are under 23 years old. We have no clue what we have. Kyrie was likely on this same list a few years back. You are assuming the worse case situation. If you are this pessimistic about rebuilding, maybe you should only be fans of teams with the best players in the NBA. Those teams never tend to lose. It's what most casual fans support.

You have been wrong in most of the thread. You said only three teams won with guys they drafted. That's wrong. 

You said 45 win teams can win a title better than bad teams, that's true, what's wrong is you didn't state the state those teams were in. Every team in the state that our team is in usually fell off a short time later or remained mediocre. We are not trending up like we were in 2008. We are trending down and extremely fast. 

I don't feel like you have bad intentions, I just flat out being unrealistic about our current state and that we are heading nowhere and only getting worse, not better. 

 

[Guard]

Logically, if a rebuild is going to happen and it will, wouldn't it make sense to do it with a guy like Schlenk at the helm? Given his experience, wouldn't a rebuild have a higher chance of panning out with a guy who helped build the freaking GS Warriors at the helm?  

This team can't keep avoiding a rebuild. It's going to happen whether some of you like it or not. Why continue to push back and hold off the inevitable? It's going to happen eventually. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

Here are the two articles that helped shape my view on tanking/rebuilding.

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/03/26/why-teams-should-try-and-get-on-the-treadmill-of-mediocrity/

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/04/02/bad-to-good-the-treadmill-to-mediocrity/

 

 

That article gets better with age, lol.  

• The article admits it doesn't evaluate particular strategies but just looks at the broad numbers without controlling for strategy.
• The article includes data from waaaayyy difference CBAs that contained different financial incentives and controls for teams and makes no attempt to bridge the gap of why data from that different time period is relevant 25 years later.
• The article gives not one example of a team that rode middling results to championship status.
• The article warns that being really bad is what the stupid and ill-informed do and is absolutely not the way to win a ring.

Yeah middle of the pack!!!

Article was released in 2012.  Where were the 2015, 2016 and 2017 champs at the time the article was released?

Golden State Warriors - 23 wins, 13th in the West

Cleveland Cavaliers - 21 wins, 13th in the West

 

But remember, being among the worst in the league means you can't win a ring, right wages of win?

@kg01

 

[NBASupes]

20 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Here is the other side that no one wants to talk about

3) Al Horford

11) Acie Law

5) Sheldon Williams

2) Marvin Williams

6) Josh Childress

6) Demarr Johnson

10) Jason Terry

10) Adam Keefe

9) Stacie Augmon

10) Rumeal Robinson

5) Jon Koncak

The only pick that would have been close to a star player was Paul Gasol and we traded him for Shareef Abdur Rahim who was a nice player but not a superstar by any stretch.

If we took all of our lottery picks over the past 15 years in their prime and put them on the same team, they may not win 35 games together.

Horford was/is a star. He was worth that selection. The rest is what bad scouting and drafting look like. OKC is what bad ownership looks like. They have great management, drafting, and scouting but bad ownership cost them, James Harden.  

Atlanta History is one of terrible scouting and drafting. The main reason why this team has had such bad luck. Our best trait as a franchise is trading and signing FA's. We have signed Paul Millsap (multiple AS), Deke and Joe Johnson. We probably had as much success as anyone in free agency not named the Lakers. That said, unless you can land a superstar in FA, you can't really get THAT much better. 

 

THIS IS WHERE @AHF was right. He said before the off-season, Atlanta MUST hit on the GM. Otherwise, this could be a terrible journey. The Falcons have done that. You now see Julio Jones, Vic Beasley and other stars. But the Hawks, they haven't. 

Edited May 30, 2017 by NBASupes

[Peoriabird]

31 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

 

3) Al Horford

11) Acie Law

5) Sheldon Williams

2) Marvin Williams

6) Josh Childress

6) Demarr Johnson

10) Jason Terry

10) Adam Keefe

9) Stacie Augmon

10) Rumeal Robinson

5) Jon Koncak

 

Non Lottery pick team

Dennis Schröder

Jeff Teague

THjr

Bembry

BeBe

Walter Tavares

John Jenkins

James Ennis

Mike Scott

Josh Smith

Boris Diaw

Allen Henderson

John Battle

Doc Rivers

These guys might give the above lottery boys a run for their money!  LOL!

[NBASupes]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Non Lottery pick team

Dennis Schröder

Jeff Teague

Taurean Prince

Walter Tavares

John Jenkins

James Ennis

Mike Scott

Josh Smith

Boris Diaw

Allen Henderson

John Battle

Doc Rivers

These guys might give the above lottery boys a run for their money!  LOL!

Prince was a lottery pick. Remove him from the list. 

 

None of these guys are guys you need as the main option to win a title. None of them. 3rd or 4th options at best. 

[Peoriabird]

Just now, NBASupes said:

Prince was a lottery pick. Remove him from the list. 

 

None of these guys are guys you need as the main option to win a title. None of them. 3rd or 4th options at best. 

Just realized my mistake

[NBASupes]

I always said,  the Hawks tend to be bad in weak draft years and sometimes that's the problem 

 

2018 and 2019 are extremely strong draft classes. Stink it up good enough and get some great prospects

Edited May 30, 2017 by NBASupes

[AHF]

Bad management will never lead to a championship.  Doesn't matter how you try to build.  Pointing to teams that have done a bad job drafting or have missed badly in FA is cathartic but not particularly useful in identifying the common features of championship teams because those teams with bad management aren't champions.  Doesn't matter what strategy you employ.

 

For me, the common thread among champions is obvious:  MVP talent.  The question is then what is the best way for a team in Atlanta's position to acquire MVP talent.  In my mind, that is where the discussion should be focused.

[Lurker]

I give Arthur Blank all the credit in the world. He had an old and stale team after his 2012 team made that run to the NFCCG. Instead of being stubborn and clinging to the idea of that you HAD to stand pat, he decided that it was time to move on from a lot of his vets (not all, but a lot of them). It's not all credited to him, but in the moves the Falcons have made from 2013, they made one that somehow unlocked Matt Ryan, the MVP.

But in between the major moves that the Falcons have made, they have put together a young and talented roster without actually coming out and saying that "We're rebuilding" (it helps that they were bad and then mediocre for three straight years). Its one that should not have a Super Bowl hangover.

It's probably as lucky as a Georgia team has been in a long time. The Falcons had more like Boston sports luck (outside of losing to a Boston team for the Super Bowl :( ) in this case than Atlanta/Georgia. In some ways, they kind of deserved it though, because the Falcons had a lot of very, very dark years outside of the 96 Super Bowl run and some Vick years until 2008.

[Lurker]

The NFL isn't the NBA though. I've said you can simply "Be hot" to be in contention for a championship in the NFL. In the NBA, you can't. No star no chip, unless you're lucky.

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I give Arthur Blank all the credit in the world. He had an old and stale team after his 2012 team made that run to the NFCCG. Instead of being stubborn and clinging to the idea of that you HAD to stand pat, he decided that it was time to move on from a lot of his vets (not all, but a lot of them). It's not all credited to him, but in the moves the Falcons have made from 2013, they made one that somehow unlocked Matt Ryan, the MVP.

But in between the major moves that the Falcons have made, they have put together a young and talented roster without actually coming out and saying that "We're rebuilding" (it helps that they were bad and then mediocre for three straight years). Its one that should not have a Super Bowl hangover.

It's probably as lucky as a Georgia team has been in a long time. The Falcons had more like Boston sports luck (outside of losing to a Boston team for the Super Bowl :( ) in this case than Atlanta/Georgia. In some ways, they kind of deserved it though, because the Falcons had a lot of very, very dark years outside of the 96 Super Bowl run and some Vick years until 2008.

Quinn has something Bud doesn't which is an eye for talent that fits his system.

[Lurker]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Quinn has something Bud doesn't which is an eye for talent that fits his system.

Howard was Tony Ressler's choice.