The Superteams effect on the Hawks.

[marco102]

3 minutes ago, Diesel said:

That was in another thread, but I will explain:

 

IF we are willing to give up a player we have developed for more first round picks... because that is what I suggested... then we have a treadmill mentaility. 

Had I said, let's take Baze and trade him for Klay Thompson... that would be using Assets to get better.   We point to the moves of Minny getting Butler.  why?  They took players with potential, players who they were developing and they flipped them for a player who was fully developed.   

Many Hawks fans just want to collect picks like Danny Ainge but they have no endgame that says... let's turn these picks into stars.  When we look at our GM... he's that kind of guy.

1. He didn't take a developing player in THJr.
2. He bought out and stretch Crawford instead of seeing what Assets he could have gotten for him. 
3. He moved back in the draft and picked up a terrible player when he traded D8.

In those 3 moves, he showed us who he is.  He is a guy who doesn't value assets. 

 

1.  Thjr's contract is way above market.

2. You don't know what he's planning to do with cap space which may be better than these assets that you are clamoring for just like the fans you are complaining about in your first paragraph.

3. I refuse to respond to anything with Dwight and or Dennis in it because I know your hard nose stance on both players.

[Thomas]

6 minutes ago, marco102 said:

3. I refuse to respond to anything with Dwight and or Dennis in it because I know your hard nose stance on both players.

Yeah hoping that soon talking about Dwight in reference to our team now is no more relevant than talking about Rumeal Robinson and our team now. Dwight is not a part of our rotation and I'd rather concentrate and try to figure out our ten man rotation for this upcoming season.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

1.  Thjr's contract is way above market.

2. You don't know what he's planning to do with cap space which may be better than these assets that you are clamoring for just like the fans you are complaining about in your first paragraph.

3. I refuse to respond to anything with Dwight and or Dennis in it because I know your hard nose stance on both players.

1.  What determines the market??

Isn't the market determined by what a team would pay?  Just because some salty fans are not happy with what he got doesn't mean that he's above market.  

2.  Past moves are excellent predictors of future moves. 

3.  Didn't ask you to.  My points about D8 and Dennis remain the same.   They are not a relevant part of this conversation... only to show our GM's past moves.  I think you would like to divert the conversation or even poison it by bringing up this reference.  Nice try.

That being the case, it's still the same truth.  The mode of which this GM has operated is that he doesn't seem to care about asset and asset management.  Only collecting picks with no purpose to them. 

 

[marco102]

Just now, Diesel said:

1.  What determines the market??

Isn't the market determined by what a team would pay?  Just because some salty fans are not happy with what he got doesn't mean that he's above market.  

2.  Past moves are excellent predictors of future moves. 

3.  Didn't ask you to.  My points about D8 and Dennis remain the same.   They are not a relevant part of this conversation... only to show our GM's past moves.  I think you would like to divert the conversation or even poison it by bringing up this reference.  Nice try.

That being the case, it's still the same truth.  The mode of which this GM has operated is that he doesn't seem to care about asset and asset management.  Only collecting picks with no purpose to them. 

 

1.  The market is determined by what a REASONABLE participant would pay.  That means what is the average team going to pay.  You can't sit here and say that Hardaway's contact on total value is not $20 million more than any other shooting guard got.  Also, the trade kicker and 50% salary advance is not a good move.   I

2.  That's true, but his past moves have given the Hawks flexibility.  My point being, they have a heck of a lot more options now than they did when Schlenk became GM.  I can't predict the future and I don't try, that's why I take a reasonable approach to everything instead of being reactionary.

3. There's nothing for me to argue here. You'll have your opinion on moving back a few spots in the second round and I could careless about it.  Dwight needed to go.  From a chemistry stand point he didn't fit the team and management made the decision to move him.   Did he play well in the playoffs? No.  Did he do what was expected in the regular season yes!  But he was making way too much money for what he could do.  Now you're going to say Plumlee's contract value to his production is bad, it can be move because it's only 12% of the capt whereas Dwight is 24%.

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, marco102 said:

1.  The market is determined by what a REASONABLE participant would pay.  That means what is the average team going to pay.  You can't sit here and say that Hardaway's contact on total value is not $20 million more than any other shooting guard got.  Also, the trade kicker and 50% salary advance is not a good move.   I

2.  That's true, but his past moves have given the Hawks flexibility.  My point being, they have a heck of a lot more options now than they did when Schlenk became GM.  I can't predict the future and I don't try, that's why I take a reasonable approach to everything instead of being reactionary.

3. There's nothing for me to argue here. You'll have your opinion on moving back a few spots in the second round and I could careless about it.  Dwight needed to go.  From a chemistry stand point he didn't fit the team and management made the decision to move him.   Did he play well in the playoffs? No.  Did he do what was expected in the regular season yes!  But he was making way too much money for what he could do.  Now you're going to say Plumlee's contract value to his production is bad, it can be move because it's only 12% of the capt whereas Dwight is 24%.

1.  Here's where "the market" put THJr amoung SGs:

 

12		Andre Iguodala SHOOTING GUARD	$17,391,304
13		Evan Fournier SHOOTING GUARD	$17,000,000
14		Tim Hardaway Jr. SHOOTING GUARD	$16,500,000
15		J.R. Smith SHOOTING GUARD	$13,760,000
16		Eric Gordon SHOOTING GUARD	$12,943,020

 

Seeing that you believe that he is overvalued...  Tell me with a straight face, which of these SGs would you rather have instead of him at their salary?

Per 36 Minutes

 

Per 36 Minutes

 

• Share & more
  • Modify & Share Table
  • Embed this Table
  • Get as Excel Workbook (experimental)
  • Get table as CSV (for Excel)
  • Strip Mobile Formatting
  • Copy Link to Table to Clipboard
  • About Sharing Tools
  • Video: SR Sharing Tools & How-to
  • Video: Stats Table Tips & Tricks
• Glossary

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Evan Fournier	2016-17	24	68	66	2234	6.6	15.0	.439	2.1	5.8	.356	4.5	9.2	.491	3.6	4.5	.805	0.7	2.7	3.4	3.3	1.1	0.1	2.3	2.9	18.8
2	Eric Gordon	2016-17	28	75	15	2323	6.4	15.7	.406	3.8	10.2	.372	2.6	5.5	.468	2.3	2.7	.840	0.4	2.7	3.1	2.9	0.7	0.6	1.9	2.3	18.9
3	Tim Hardaway	2016-17	24	79	30	2154	6.9	15.2	.455	2.5	7.0	.357	4.4	8.3	.537	2.7	3.6	.766	0.6	3.2	3.7	3.0	0.9	0.3	1.8	1.7	19.1
4	Andre Iguodala	2016-17	33	76	0	1998	3.9	7.5	.528	1.2	3.2	.362	2.8	4.3	.651	1.3	1.8	.706	0.9	4.6	5.5	4.7	1.4	0.7	1.0	1.7	10.3
5	J.R. Smith	2016-17	31	41	35	1187	3.7	10.8	.346	2.9	8.2	.351	0.8	2.6	.329	0.3	0.5	.667	0.5	2.9	3.4	1.9	1.2	0.3	0.8	2.3	10.6

[AHF]

D - Let's not pretend you couldn't find 20 articles in 5 minutes time laughing at the Knicks for a ridiculous overpay.  Someone even posted one earlier today on the general state of the cap for the next 3 years that singled out the Knicks' offer to THJr as being beyond foolish.  Every reaction to that signing has been either laughter, eyerolling or frustration because of how far it was above market.

[Diesel]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

D - Let's not pretend you couldn't find 20 articles in 5 minutes time laughing at the Knicks for a ridiculous overpay.  Someone even posted one earlier today on the general state of the cap for the next 3 years that singled out the Knicks' offer to THJr as being beyond foolish.  Every reaction to that signing has been either laughter, eyerolling or frustration because of how far it was above market.

Hey... I provided you with names and numbers... real and tangible.  Not just opinions.   The fans (especially NYers) will have strong opinions, but they are not based on the reality of what players make right now and what players are worth right now.   Right now... Evan Fournier is making more than THJr.   Even though this past season THJr was better per 36.  Same is true with all those who I posted.  I mean, we can go higher:

7		Nicolas Batum SHOOTING GUARD	$22,434,783
8		Victor Oladipo SHOOTING GUARD	$21,000,000
9		Jimmy Butler SHOOTING GUARD	$19,300,894
10		Wesley Matthews SHOOTING GUARD	$17,884,175
11		Klay Thompson SHOOTING GUARD	$17,826,150

 

There are a few here that THJr is better than.  and they are making more.   Point is this is the market.. not some fan opined market...

Just like back in the day...  Koncak getting a 6 year 13 Million dollar deal was the worst contract in the history of basketball.  Now, Plumlee makes what Koncak made in a year.  The relativity machine is on and relatively speaking things are changing.  The fans viewpoint is not something that agents care about.  They will compare their player to what players are already making and that will be the market... NOt that 7 million fans in NY are crying because they don't want their team spending that much. 

 

[AHF]

I guess Joakim Noah's market value must be higher than a ton of productive players because the Knicks signed him to a deal that everyone rolled their eyes at too.  If you are defining market value simply by the amount of the contract then you are making the term meaningless and might as well just simply list people by salary.

The way others are using the term is different than simply the amount of the contract that a player signs.  It is intended to say that DMC was under market value his last year with us but became over market value almost immediately after signing his new deal - the driver being the production he gave for the price he was being paid.

[Diesel]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

I guess Joakim Noah's market value must be higher than a ton of productive players because the Knicks signed him to a deal that everyone rolled their eyes at too.  If you are defining market value simply by the amount of the contract then you are making the term meaningless and might as well just simply list people by salary.

The way others are using the term is different than simply the amount of the contract that a player signs.  It is intended to say that DMC was under market value his last year with us but became over market value almost immediately after signing his new deal - the driver being the production he gave for the price he was being paid.

The question is does Noah's production or potential fit anywhere near the area he's being paid?  They took him while he was still very injured so his potential was down.  However, he's being paid between Greg Monroe and Bismack Biyombo.   As far as THJr went, I think when you consider those who were around him in the market, that his potential and production was fair value.   Surely you don't want to set his value based on what Steve Smith got paid in 1998 do you?

 

 

[AHF]

Just now, Diesel said:

The question is does Noah's production or potential fit anywhere near the area he's being paid?  They took him while he was still very injured so his potential was down.  However, he's being paid between Greg Monroe and Bismack Biyombo.   As far as THJr went, I think when you consider those who were around him in the market, that his potential and production was fair value.   Surely you don't want to set his value based on what Steve Smith got paid in 1998 do you?

 

 

Tons and tons of NBA commentator agree that THJr's production and protential did not warrant the deal.  That is why they are laughing at the Knicks for showing their continued incompetence by signing him to that sheet.

Finding people who think his play and potential doesn't justify the deal is like shooting fish in a barrel - much like the reaction to the Noah deal from the same Knicks the year before.

[marco102]

40 minutes ago, Diesel said:

1.  Here's where "the market" put THJr amoung SGs:

 

12		Andre Iguodala SHOOTING GUARD	$17,391,304
13		Evan Fournier SHOOTING GUARD	$17,000,000
14		Tim Hardaway Jr. SHOOTING GUARD	$16,500,000
15		J.R. Smith SHOOTING GUARD	$13,760,000
16		Eric Gordon SHOOTING GUARD	$12,943,020

 

Seeing that you believe that he is overvalued...  Tell me with a straight face, which of these SGs would you rather have instead of him at their salary?

Per 36 Minutes

 

Per 36 Minutes

 

• Share & more
  • Modify & Share Table
  • Embed this Table
  • Get as Excel Workbook (experimental)
  • Get table as CSV (for Excel)
  • Strip Mobile Formatting
  • Copy Link to Table to Clipboard
  • About Sharing Tools
  • Video: SR Sharing Tools & How-to
  • Video: Stats Table Tips & Tricks
• Glossary

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Evan Fournier	2016-17	24	68	66	2234	6.6	15.0	.439	2.1	5.8	.356	4.5	9.2	.491	3.6	4.5	.805	0.7	2.7	3.4	3.3	1.1	0.1	2.3	2.9	18.8
2	Eric Gordon	2016-17	28	75	15	2323	6.4	15.7	.406	3.8	10.2	.372	2.6	5.5	.468	2.3	2.7	.840	0.4	2.7	3.1	2.9	0.7	0.6	1.9	2.3	18.9
3	Tim Hardaway	2016-17	24	79	30	2154	6.9	15.2	.455	2.5	7.0	.357	4.4	8.3	.537	2.7	3.6	.766	0.6	3.2	3.7	3.0	0.9	0.3	1.8	1.7	19.1
4	Andre Iguodala	2016-17	33	76	0	1998	3.9	7.5	.528	1.2	3.2	.362	2.8	4.3	.651	1.3	1.8	.706	0.9	4.6	5.5	4.7	1.4	0.7	1.0	1.7	10.3
5	J.R. Smith	2016-17	31	41	35	1187	3.7	10.8	.346	2.9	8.2	.351	0.8	2.6	.329	0.3	0.5	.667	0.5	2.9	3.4	1.9	1.2	0.3	0.8	2.3	10.6

Per 36 Minutes Table

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Evan Fournier	2016-17	24	68	66	2234	6.6	15.0	.439	2.1	5.8	.356	4.5	9.2	.491	3.6	4.5	.805	0.7	2.7	3.4	3.3	1.1	0.1	2.3	2.9	18.8
2	Eric Gordon	2016-17	28	75	15	2323	6.4	15.7	.406	3.8	10.2	.372	2.6	5.5	.468	2.3	2.7	.840	0.4	2.7	3.1	2.9	0.7	0.6	1.9	2.3	18.9
3	Tim Hardaway	2016-17	24	79	30	2154	6.9	15.2	.455	2.5	7.0	.357	4.4	8.3	.537	2.7	3.6	.766	0.6	3.2	3.7	3.0	0.9	0.3	1.8	1.7	19.1
4	Andre Iguodala	2016-17	33	76	0	1998	3.9	7.5	.528	1.2	3.2	.362	2.8	4.3	.651	1.3	1.8	.706	0.9	4.6	5.5	4.7	1.4	0.7	1.0	1.7	10.3
5	J.R. Smith	2016-17	31	41	35	1187	3.7	10.8	.346	2.9	8.2	.351	0.8	2.6	.329	0.3	0.5	.667	0.5	2.9	3.4	1.9	1.2	0.3	0.8	2.3	10.6

Data courtesy Basketball-Reference.com.

I can pull of contracts from 1990 and make everyone look over paid. You know good and well I meant this year.  See below. Tim is $18,950,000 more than anyone else. 

 

Tim Hardaway Jr.	SG	25	RFA	ATL	NYK	4	$70,950,000	$17,737,500	$16,500,000
Dion Waiters	SG	25	UFA	MIA	MIA	4	$52,000,000	$13,000,000	$11,000,000
Andre Iguodala	SG	33	UFA	GSW	GSW	3	$48,000,000	$16,000,000	$14,814,815
Andre Roberson	SG	25	RFA	OKC	OKC	3	$30,000,000	$10,000,000	$9,259,259
J.J. Redick	SG	33	UFA	LAC	PHI	1	$23,000,000	$23,000,000	$23,000,000
Kyle Korver	SG	36	UFA	CLE	CLE	3	$21,000,000	$7,000,000	$6,481,481
Ben McLemore	SG	24	UFA	SAC	MEM	2	$10,660,000	$5,330,000	$5,200,000
Justin Holiday	SG	28	UFA	NYK	CHI	2	$9,000,000	$4,500,000	$4,390,244
Jamal Crawford	SG	37	UFA	ATL	MIN	2	$8,872,400	$4,436,200	$4,328,000
Vince Carter	SG	40	UFA	MEM	SAC	1	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000
Jodie Meeks	SG	29	UFA	ORL	WAS	2	$6,744,500	$3,372,250	$3,290,000
Wayne Selden	SG	22	UFA	MEM	MEM	2	$2,857,562	$1,428,781	$1,312,611
Ron Baker	SG	24	UFA	NYK	NYK	2	-	-	-

[Diesel]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

Tons and tons of NBA commentator agree that THJr's production and protential did not warrant the deal.  That is why they are laughing at the Knicks for showing their continued incompetence by signing him to that sheet.

Finding people who think his play and potential doesn't justify the deal is like shooting fish in a barrel - much like the reaction to the Noah deal from the same Knicks the year before.

What do they know??  They are not in the warroom.  NY's GM will be either crucified or vindicated by this choice... but not this week.  

Didn't one of the top pundits say that Josh Smith would be a Bust at pick #16?  For a 16 pick, I think Josh did very well.   These pundits today do NO homework.  Not one that you are relying on mentioned any of the names and contracts that I did and said.. all those guys are better than THJr,, Did they?  So they tried to create their own Market and the more you propagate it the more that they think they are right.  However, they are not right.    You can't tell me that you have a player who scores better than, plays better than.. and then when contract time comes you say... because the pundits say so, this is where you should be paid.  NO.  They will go based on how much everybody else is getting paid... "the real market".  Moreover, THJr was a RFA...  There's a cost associated with that too. 

 

[Diesel]

4 minutes ago, marco102 said:

I can pull of contracts from 1990 and make everyone look over paid. You know good and well I meant this year.  See below. Tim is $18,950,000 more than anyone else. 

 

Tim Hardaway Jr.	SG	25	RFA	ATL	NYK	4	$70,950,000	$17,737,500	$16,500,000
Dion Waiters	SG	25	UFA	MIA	MIA	4	$52,000,000	$13,000,000	$11,000,000
Andre Iguodala	SG	33	UFA	GSW	GSW	3	$48,000,000	$16,000,000	$14,814,815
Andre Roberson	SG	25	RFA	OKC	OKC	3	$30,000,000	$10,000,000	$9,259,259
J.J. Redick	SG	33	UFA	LAC	PHI	1	$23,000,000	$23,000,000	$23,000,000
Kyle Korver	SG	36	UFA	CLE	CLE	3	$21,000,000	$7,000,000	$6,481,481
Ben McLemore	SG	24	UFA	SAC	MEM	2	$10,660,000	$5,330,000	$5,200,000
Justin Holiday	SG	28	UFA	NYK	CHI	2	$9,000,000	$4,500,000	$4,390,244
Jamal Crawford	SG	37	UFA	ATL	MIN	2	$8,872,400	$4,436,200	$4,328,000
Vince Carter	SG	40	UFA	MEM	SAC	1	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000
Jodie Meeks	SG	29	UFA	ORL	WAS	2	$6,744,500	$3,372,250	$3,290,000
Wayne Selden	SG	22	UFA	MEM	MEM	2	$2,857,562	$1,428,781	$1,312,611
Ron Baker	SG	24	UFA	NYK	NYK	2	-	-	-

DO YOUR Research.

The numbers I pulled were CURRENT.

 

[AHF]

You are making one of two arguments here or a combination of the two:

(1) That THJr's past production and future potential warrant his deal and in doing so mean that his market value is appropriately reflected in the deal he got from the Knicks.  If that is what you are arguing, we can agree that this is a minority opinion and agree to disagree on it.

(2)  That market is simply the amount of the contract.  That to me is a meaningless statement as addressed above.

[marco102]

6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

DO YOUR Research.

The numbers I pulled were CURRENT.

 

For contracts given out in summer of 2016.  I'm only speaking of summer 2017.  Summer 2016 was not a normal market and you know it.  When was the last time the NBA salary cap went up that much? NEVER! 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, marco102 said:

For contracts given out in summer of 2016.  I'm only speaking of summer 2017.  Summer 2017 was not a normal market and you know it.  When was the last time the NBA salary cap went up that much? NEVER! 

Agreed.  (Assuming you've got a typo in the third sentence where it should be Summer 2016).  The deals from last year were not meaningful in the long-term.  Guys like Baze, Evan Turner, etc. got paid in a way that they would not get this year or in the future.  

A guy like George Hill is hating himself that he wasn't a free agent last year.  Probably cost him $20-30M.

[marco102]

Just now, AHF said:

Agreed.  (Assuming you've got a typo in the third sentence where it should be Summer 2016).  The deals from last year were not meaningful in the long-term.  Guys like Baze, Evan Turner, etc. got paid in a way that they would not get this year or in the future.  

A guy like George Hill is hating himself that he wasn't a free agent last year.  Probably cost him $20-30M.

Haha, I did. I meant summer 2016 wasn't a normal market.

[AHF]

Just now, marco102 said:

Haha, I did. I meant summer 2016 wasn't a normal market.

Fixed it for you.

[Diesel]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

You are making one of two arguments here or a combination of the two:

(1) That THJr's past production and future potential warrant his deal and in doing so mean that his market value is appropriately reflected in the deal he got from the Knicks.  If that is what you are arguing, we can agree that this is a minority opinion and agree to disagree on it.

(2)  That market is simply the amount of the contract.  That to me is a meaningless statement as addressed above.

We have to disagree.   I believe that when you look at his potential and production... and compare it to others in the league getting contracts, his value is fair.

I mean.. JJ Redick just got a 1 year 23 Million dollar deal from the sixers.  He's 33years old.  His numbers this past year looks like THJr but he's making 6 Million more.    That's a market setter.

Nicolas Batum put up numbers similar to THJrs.. Yet, he's making 22 Million dollars this upcoming season. 

I see when you consider that THJr is 24 and his mpg were limited because he was sharing time with Baze and others...  I think under the right system, he will be worth that amount.  Moreover, that amount is indicative of what the new pay scale looks like.  So just like we wouldn't scoff at a Koncak Conttract which we thought was the worst in Basketball years ago.  The scale is moving again.

[Eddielives]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

We have to disagree.   I believe that when you look at his potential and production... and compare it to others in the league getting contracts, his value is fair.

I mean.. JJ Redick just got a 1 year 23 Million dollar deal from the sixers.  He's 33years old.  His numbers this past year looks like THJr but he's making 6 Million more.    That's a market setter.

Nicolas Batum put up numbers similar to THJrs.. Yet, he's making 22 Million dollars this upcoming season. 

I see when you consider that THJr is 24 and his mpg were limited because he was sharing time with Baze and others...  I think under the right system, he will be worth that amount.  Moreover, that amount is indicative of what the new pay scale looks like.  So just like we wouldn't scoff at a Koncak Conttract which we thought was the worst in Basketball years ago.  The scale is moving again.

Can you at least admit a couple of things though NostraDiesel?  One, that the only way THJ's current contract will be worth it is if he plays at least a little better than he played last year in terms of his overall stats and he improves modestly on defense?  And that the likelihood of these things happening is a HUGE what if/risk?  He's not exactly going into a stable situation whereas here, he had a much more desireable team situation(minus Dwight) and coaching staff.  Nobody is saying that because the talking heads pretty much unanimously agree this is a bad contract that it is absolutely true that it is.  But for someone who has been making all sorts of negative prophecies of disaster recently it seems very strange that you're so optimistic that THJ is going to blossom into a star player worthy of every penny he's getting.  Sorry but it all seems so arbitrary and it's hard to follow your arguments when you're not consistent.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Eddielives