Ranking the East... Where do our Hawks fall

[Diesel]

 

1.  Boston.   Not the Gordon effect.  The Lebron getting old effect.  I think Lebron is getting tired of carrying the Cavs and he will do just enough.  He's already thinking about LAL with the gang.
2. Cleveland.  Even though Bron is going through the motions, even without Bron, they are this good.
3. Washington.  After all the dust have cleared, they are probably here. 
4. Toronto.  WIth Lowry Back.. they will be a top team. 
5. Charlotte.  This is sorta by default.  Bottom line, I like their coach and their GM.   They have some good players. 
6. Milwaukee.  I want to put them higher, but I think reality sets in this season.  I don't see the talent that will take them higher. 
7. Philadelphia.  Probably should go 4th but got some growing to do.   Embid, Saric, Simmons, Fultz, and Riddick.  man.. those draft picks have come in.. this is the new OKC. 
8. Miami.  Everybody talks about how to tank and retool.  Nobody seems to mention Miami.  They have lots of young talent. 
9. Chicago.  Wade, Portis, Lavine, Dunn... should be fun.  But the fun won't start until Lavine comes back.  Still, I think Chicago got some more trades coming. 
10. NY. Great coach.  We're all waiting for the shoe to drop.  Melo to Houston, what will NY get back. My guess is Ryan Anderson and PJ Tucker.  If that happens.. look out world, NY could be going higher... If not Zingas and Melo is still formidable and they have a great coach.
11. Detroit.  The problem is that the talent is there.  The coaching is there.  Something is just wrong though.  If you were to tell me:  Jackson, Bradley, Harris, Leur, and Drummond couldn't win, I would call you crazy.  Not to mention they have a strong bench.  I can see Detroit as high as #3 in the East but they have fallen back so far because for some reason Coaching is not meeting talent. 
12. Indiana.  These guys are also tanking competitively.  However, I like the acquisition of Sabonis.  I also think that TJ Leaf and Bogdanovic and Ike.. brings a little international spark with Sabonis.  I think they may make a trade before it's all over... they have too many 4s.   Still, they have a lot of talent.
13. New Jersey.   This was hard.  Hard not to put Atlanta here.  However, when I look at this team... they mirror ours.  Lin, Russell, DMC, Mozgov, Acy, Kilpatrick...  I think what will tell the story here is Lin.  Lin is a leader and that takes the burden off of Russell.  Also, I think Atkninson is a better coach (X and O) than Bud.  I think Bud may be better at handling personnel but listening to Atkinson talk about big guys and little guys and seeing the makeup of his team, they will acheive GS East much faster and better than we could.  Then there's Jarrett Allen.  I'm scared of this individual.  He may be the second coming of Amare.
14. Atlanta.  Finally.  Tanking Competitively.   Just on a talent basis, we don't have the talent to match up with many of the teams ahead of us.
15. Orlando.   What are they doing?  If I'm a fan of the Magic.. I'm begging for a new team.

 

[Vol4ever]

I dont think Boston can play with Cleveland even after this summer.  Also imo no way NY is 8th in the conference, they suck as bad as we do right now.  

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, Vol4ever said:

I dont think Boston can play with Cleveland even after this summer.  Also imo no way NY is 8th in the conference, they suck as bad as we do right now.  

Boston takes advantage of the same playbook we have had in Hawks University.   Look at their personnel.

IT, Smart, Hayward, Crowder, Al, Morris... Yes. Morris.  People talked about the acquisition of Hayward and that was OK... But I'm focused on the acquisition of him and Morris.  Morris is prototypically what they want in a 4.   Then they got young guys like Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown.  They have a lot...  I was watching the Network and they were talking about the strong possibility that Boston goes after Anthony Davis about midseason.  i.e. if N.O. can't make things work with Boogie and Davis that they may be interested in a trade.   If that happens, then they would be even stronger. 

I have NY 9th.. here's why.  I think Phil was a distraction last year.  He tried to force the coach to run a triangle offense.   I think now... you will see Horny do his thing.  I know that they are trying to raise Melo's trade value to get him out of there.   Here's my point.

Melo, Porzingas, Hardaway Jr., Lee,   They will have a nice formidable team talent-wise.  I think they will trade for a starting PG.  I also think they have some prospects.. like Frankie N. 

[DBac]

1. Cleveland

2. Boston

- Probably ends up the other way around when it's all said and done. But Cleveland is still the class of the east

3. Toronto

4. Milwaukee

5. Washington

- I feel pretty good about Milwaukee at 4. Giannis has taken a step forward every year so far, if he comes back with a workable jumpshot the east is in trouble. These three could all be flipped around.

6. Miami

- That team seems pretty close, adding a couple new pieces, and they'll probably keep clicking.

7. Hornets

8. 76ers

- Would rank the 76ers higher if Embiid shows any ability to stay healthy. That team could land anywhere from 5-10 depending on health. Hornets are in by process of elimination.

9. Pacers

10. Pistons

- Treadmill teams... the Pacers had a perfect opportunity but their owner is content with winning 38-40 games a year. 

11. Knicks

12. Nets

13. Hawks

14. Magic

15. Bulls

- Knicks are the best of these 5 teams IMO. Nets weren't completely awful in the second half of last season, obviously it remains to be seen how losing Brolo changes that. Magic and Bulls are the two teams that I can't see the Hawks out doing in the loss column. The Bulls are better at tanking and the Magic just have 0 direction. 

[Diesel]

I think that the Sixers rise will depend on one name...

Simmons. 

IF Simmons is a stud.. he can take them farther than Giannis can take Milwaukee.

Embiid would just be extra gravy.  I think Reddick is too early but maybe they really, really wanted an outside threat. 

 

[DBac]

Toronto resignd Lowry btw

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, DBac said:

Toronto resignd Lowry btw

Well that certainly changes things. 

 

[DrReality]

Too early to tell. Going to take a few months to make them a team.  

[TheFuzz]

I like us better than the Bulls, Nets, Knicks, Magic and Sixers in the East, possibly Pacers as well. In the West, Lakers, Kings, Suns should be worse than us with the Mavs in the mix too. Whether that's a good thing is up for debate.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1) Cleveland - Lebron is still the best player in the East, with Kyrie being the 3rd best player in the East

2) Milwaukee - Giannis becomes the MONSTER with Parker becoming a very good #2 guy

3) Boston - Uncertainty with IT's hip, plus they take a step back defensively with the loss of Bradley

4) Toronto - Unless Derozan develops a 3 point shot, they'll be right there(

 ( NOTE: Top 4 in East all win 50+ games )

 

5) Washington - 4th best backcourt in the league, still didn't improve defensively

6) Charlotte - The Dwight Effect puts them back in the playoffs

7) Miami - Won't be as good as they were in the 2nd half of last year, but good enough to make playoffs

 

 

8) Atlanta - Dennis is not a tanker, and threatens to make All-Star team.  Hawks win 35 games and get in

 

 

The rest

 

9) Philadelphia - until I see how this team plays on defense, you can't elevate them to playoff level

10) NY Knicks - If Melo isn't traded before the start of the season, he eventually will be traded before A-S break

11) Detroit - Intriguing defensive potential, but where will the offense come from?

 

( NOTE:  The following teams may not win 25 games this season )

 

12) Chicago - Wade will be traded by Christmas

13) Brooklyn - Russell will make them slightly better, but not by much.

14) Orlando - Biyombo and Fournier are both making 17 million per year. That's all you need to know.

15) Indiana - Unless you believe Olidipo or Lance Stephenson become 18 ppg scorers, they're the worst team in East.

 

The reality of the East is that you can pretty much pencil in those top 7 teams, barring injury.  But the 8th spot will be similar to the fight that went on in 2013 - 14, when the 38 win Hawks got into the playoffs.  Unless Dennis is on board with tanking, or if Bud coaches the team and puts out rotations that will lose on purpose, the Hawks are going to win games in the East by default.

 

Questions for the Hawks: 

 

- What will they rank defensively?

- Does Prince take the big leap in Year 2?

- Can they generate enough 3 point shooting?

- Will they emphasize transition offense?

- Does Bazemore improve or regress?

- Can they get defensive rebounds, with the loss of Dwight and Millsap?

- Will Collins start from Day 1?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I forgot that Indiana signed Darren Collison.  That at least gives them a legit floor leader, and keeps Lance out of the starting lineup as the PG.  I like Collison's game.  So let's bump Indiana up to 11th.

[parfait]

11 hours ago, Diesel said:

 

1.  Boston.   Not the Gordon effect.  The Lebron getting old effect.  I think Lebron is getting tired of carrying the Cavs and he will do just enough.  He's already thinking about LAL with the gang.
2. Cleveland.  Even though Bron is going through the motions, even without Bron, they are this good.
3. Washington.  After all the dust have cleared, they are probably here. 
4. Toronto.  WIth Lowry Back.. they will be a top team. 
5. Charlotte.  This is sorta by default.  Bottom line, I like their coach and their GM.   They have some good players. 
6. Milwaukee.  I want to put them higher, but I think reality sets in this season.  I don't see the talent that will take them higher. 
7. Philadelphia.  Probably should go 4th but got some growing to do.   Embid, Saric, Simmons, Fultz, and Riddick.  man.. those draft picks have come in.. this is the new OKC. 
8. Miami.  Everybody talks about how to tank and retool.  Nobody seems to mention Miami.  They have lots of young talent. 
9. Chicago.  Wade, Portis, Lavine, Dunn... should be fun.  But the fun won't start until Lavine comes back.  Still, I think Chicago got some more trades coming. 
10. NY. Great coach.  We're all waiting for the shoe to drop.  Melo to Houston, what will NY get back. My guess is Ryan Anderson and PJ Tucker.  If that happens.. look out world, NY could be going higher... If not Zingas and Melo is still formidable and they have a great coach.
11. Detroit.  The problem is that the talent is there.  The coaching is there.  Something is just wrong though.  If you were to tell me:  Jackson, Bradley, Harris, Leur, and Drummond couldn't win, I would call you crazy.  Not to mention they have a strong bench.  I can see Detroit as high as #3 in the East but they have fallen back so far because for some reason Coaching is not meeting talent. 
12. Indiana.  These guys are also tanking competitively.  However, I like the acquisition of Sabonis.  I also think that TJ Leaf and Bogdanovic and Ike.. brings a little international spark with Sabonis.  I think they may make a trade before it's all over... they have too many 4s.   Still, they have a lot of talent.
13. New Jersey.   This was hard.  Hard not to put Atlanta here.  However, when I look at this team... they mirror ours.  Lin, Russell, DMC, Mozgov, Acy, Kilpatrick...  I think what will tell the story here is Lin.  Lin is a leader and that takes the burden off of Russell.  Also, I think Atkninson is a better coach (X and O) than Bud.  I think Bud may be better at handling personnel but listening to Atkinson talk about big guys and little guys and seeing the makeup of his team, they will acheive GS East much faster and better than we could.  Then there's Jarrett Allen.  I'm scared of this individual.  He may be the second coming of Amare.
14. Atlanta.  Finally.  Tanking Competitively.   Just on a talent basis, we don't have the talent to match up with many of the teams ahead of us.
15. Orlando.   What are they doing?  If I'm a fan of the Magic.. I'm begging for a new team.

 

Hmm...

Charlotte #5  "They have some good players."

Chicago #9 "...should be fun." "Still, I think Chicago got some more trades coming."

NY #10 "They have a great coach." [Hornacek?!!] "...Zingas [?!!] and Melo is still formidable..."

Detroit #11 "I can see Detroit as high as #3 in the East..."

So, did you just throw darts at the board to come up with these numbers?

And, boy, I've never seen someone give just about every other team's unproven players the benefit of the doubt... EXCEPT Atlanta's!

Sounds like someone's using their HATE instead of their HEAD.

[Diesel]

4 hours ago, parfait said:

Hmm...

Charlotte #5  "They have some good players."

Chicago #9 "...should be fun." "Still, I think Chicago got some more trades coming."

NY #10 "They have a great coach." [Hornacek?!!] "...Zingas [?!!] and Melo is still formidable..."

Detroit #11 "I can see Detroit as high as #3 in the East..."

So, did you just throw darts at the board to come up with these numbers?

And, boy, I've never seen someone give just about every other team's unproven players the benefit of the doubt... EXCEPT Atlanta's!

Sounds like someone's using their HATE instead of their HEAD.

Charlotte won 36 games last year. 

They draft Malik Monk.

They pick up Dwight Howard and Michael Carter Williams. 

Their coach is Steve Clifford who I believe is really good at tapping into player's potential.   They have some really good players, a good coach, and a good GM. 

Chicago.

Old man Dawayne Wade is still pretty good.  I say that they will be fun to watch...  Lavine, Dunn, Wade, Portis, Grant, Valentine, and Wade...  With all their Gaurds, I can't imagine them not trading, but with all these guys.. they should be fun to watch. 

NY.  

Did you ever see what Hornacek did in Phoenix?  Phil brought him in and wanted him to play the "triangle".  With the reigns off and a better GM, I expect that Hornacek will show a different team.. with or without Melo.. and they have talent. 

 

Like I said.. Other teams have more talent than us.   This is just Honesty.   Honesty over Homerism.   We don't have any proven talent except Dennis and Dennis is a little better than Mediocre.   Yet you guys want to think that a talentless team will win 35 games??  Show me the 35 teams that we will beat.  IF we win 35... make Bud a Statue and call him coach forever.

 

 

[Packfill]

15 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I forgot that Indiana signed Darren Collison.  That at least gives them a legit floor leader, and keeps Lance out of the starting lineup as the PG.  I like Collison's game.  So let's bump Indiana up to 11th.

No doubt Indy is going to take a step back without George, and to a lesser extent Teague, but Myles Turner to me still has lots more upside (while being a pretty decent player already at 21 years old) and guys like Oladipo, Collison and Thad Young give them some veteran stability while the other young big men gain experience in lesser roles.  

I think the top 5 teams in the east are easy to identify:  Cleveland; Boston; Washington; Milwaukee; and Toronto.  After that, I see a drop-off but with Charlotte, Miami and Detroit as the most obvious to slip into the final playoff spots.  

The remaining teams in the east either lack experience (young teams rarely win many games, even with elite talent) or are clearly shuffling the decks and rebuilding.

Good topic.

[MaceCase]

Cleveland

Boston

Nobody else matters.  Washington still hasn't addressed adding any meaningful depth and are bound to see post contract year regression from Porter, Toronto lost 5 starters/rotation players from last season, Milwaukee gains Middleton but loses Jabari again, Indiana lost their 2 best players, Chicago are a mess and Wade absolutely will not sacrifice his body for that team before he's bought out.

Charlotte moves up after the post new contract lull,  Detroit has the same benefit but lost two starters replacing them with Bradley, Miami probably gets Whiteside past that lull but now deals with Waiters entering it and aren't going to take teams by surprise anymore.

Philly has to actually get a consistent lineup to mesh together (and stay healthy), Orlando still doesn't know how to construct a team and will keep throwing crap on the wall hoping something will stick, Brooklyn gained backcourt depth but lost any semblance of a frontcourt, the Knicks are even more of a mess in Phil's wake and Melo in limbo.

 

5 tiers of teams, the Hawks fall in the top of the 5th tier and bottom of the 4th tier.  Season will end worse than last season where 11 teams were battling for seeding during the last week of regular games.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

13 hours ago, Diesel said:

Charlotte won 36 games last year. 

They draft Malik Monk.

They pick up Dwight Howard and Michael Carter Williams. 

Their coach is Steve Clifford who I believe is really good at tapping into player's potential.   They have some really good players, a good coach, and a good GM. 

Chicago.

Old man Dawayne Wade is still pretty good.  I say that they will be fun to watch...  Lavine, Dunn, Wade, Portis, Grant, Valentine, and Wade...  With all their Gaurds, I can't imagine them not trading, but with all these guys.. they should be fun to watch. 

NY.  

Did you ever see what Hornacek did in Phoenix?  Phil brought him in and wanted him to play the "triangle".  With the reigns off and a better GM, I expect that Hornacek will show a different team.. with or without Melo.. and they have talent. 

 

Like I said.. Other teams have more talent than us.   This is just Honesty.   Honesty over Homerism.   We don't have any proven talent except Dennis and Dennis is a little better than Mediocre.   Yet you guys want to think that a talentless team will win 35 games??  Show me the 35 teams that we will beat.  IF we win 35... make Bud a Statue and call him coach forever.

 

 

How to win 35 games:

 

- Win 10 games vs the Western Conference . . . ( 7 wins at home . . . 3 on the road . . . 10 - 20 overall )

- Win 25 games vs the Eastern Conference . . . ( 15 wins at home . . 10 on the road . . . . 25 - 27 overall )

 

The West is loaded, but not invincible.  And the East has MAYBE 2  elite teams, and a bunch of mid-level teams.  And despite ownership refusing to re-sign our strongest parts of the team, there's one group in ATL that will NEVER tank.

 

They're good for at least 10 wins a year by themselves, especially during weeknight games.

 

 

 

 

At this point, the Hawks are 18 - 28.  

With 36 games vs the Atlantic and Central divisions, the Hawks would have to go 17 - 19 vs those teams.

[KB21]

One guys initial win projections based on current rosters (as of July 10th)

I agree with most of this.  Philly will not make the playoffs.   That roster has to marinate a little longer before they get in.  The Hawks are going to be significantly bad in 2018.  The Lakers may very well be worse.  

[GrimeyKidd]

The hawks aren't going to be bad at all.

[Lurker]

I don't think using analytics straight off of how players have done before to predict wins is a good idea. I fully accept analytics but you have to be careful with using them.

Not optimistic that this is even an "okay" season though but if there is anything to be optimistic about, this is a team that actually makes sense...even when you go with the defensive/inside guys as big men. It is likely that Collins will be more compliant and active than Howard (and I'm talking about even when Howard is playing with a **passer** PG) on PNR. Or you could go with shooters and take advantage of Schröder's dribble penetration.

I would still start at predicting 25 wins and I think the max is 30-32.

Oh, and Charlotte with the Kemba-Dwight connection is going to disappoint massively, even if they make the playoffs. They will be fighting almost from the start.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Lurker

[Kimsey]

Cavs, Wizs, Celts, Raps, Bucks, and Bobs are locks. Pistons, Heat, and 76ers rounds out the rest. 

Hawks, Nets, and Pacers are the next tier. The most competition for lotto balls are Bulls, Knicks, and Magic. Out West, it's Mavs, Suns, and Kings. 6-7 teams that will out tank the Hawks... 

Hopefully the Hawks will be big sellers at the deadline and let the young guns finish out the season.