Prediction time

[Peoriabird]

 

                          Prediction                           Actual

Dennis                 21 ppg                               20.1 ppg

Delaney                8ppg                                 6.9ppg

Bazemore            14 ppg                              13.8ppg

Belinelli                   6ppg                             11.6ppg

Bembry                   8ppg                              3ppg

Prince                    14ppg                             13.1ppg

Collin                     12ppg                              11.1ppg

Illyasova                11ppg                              4.6ppg

Moose                    9ppg                             6.6ppg

Dedmon                  10ppg                         10.5ppg

 

We probably won't average 115 points per game but I'm pretty sure there will be some DNP's in there but those averages sound reasonable.  What do you guys think?

 

 

[Diesel]

Dennis  16 ppg - He's the focus now. Inefficiency meets defense.  Teams will know that Dennis is trying to drive and will leave him to the funnel.  If you are not a three point threat. IF you are not a pass first kind of guy.  If you don't have another scoring threat on the team... Defenses will eat you alive.   It's going to be interesting seeing us play Denver and Minny.

Delaney 6 ppg - Inefficency Squared.   He will probably hit a higher percentage of his shots, but he is not a play maker.  Why is Calderon in Cleveland?

Bazemore 14 ppg - This may be a somewhat inefficient 14.  I think playing beside Dennis will cause Baze to try to do too much.    Such as run PNR with our bigs.  Trying to throw lobs and alley opps.   I still say having a PG who can pass and does would be best for him.  Kyrie would have been good for Baze because he is ball dominant and he has respect.  I believe Baze would play well off him and maybe get an efficient 14-15.  This would let everybody else on the team eat.  With Dennis... I don't see that.  I see Baze messing up everybody else's plate. 

Belinelli 6ppg _ Good for about 1 three pointer per game.   However, he will not be the threat that he could be.

Bembry 6 ppg - lots of DNP until we give up in March. 

Prince 10ppg - He will have to figure out how to get his shot.  This will be a hard season for Prince.  First... He has to get Dennis to pass him the ball.  Second, he will have trouble developing a rhythm because he will see lots of defensive schemes. 

Collins 12ppg - Rook will put up good nimbers.   I give him 12/7 over 37 minutes. 

Illyasova/Plumlee -  8 ppg

Moose 8 ppg

Dedmon 7 ppg  - I don't see this guy jumping out there as a scorer.  We are not San Antonio and don't have their weapons and don't have their PGs. 

 

Like I have said before.  Lose competitively.  I think what will be hard is watching guys like Lonzo Ball come into the league and be better from the start than Dennis. 

[Peoriabird]

You really have a hard on for Dennis for some reason.  Dennis scored 18 points per game as the 2nd sometime 3rd option last year.  So you are saying that he will average fewer point per game as the 1st option?  As far as 3 point shooting is concern, I don't know if you noticed but Dennis has become a better shooter every year and was more efficient at scoring than Millsap was last year

[Diesel]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

You really have a hard on for Dennis for some reason.  Dennis scored 18 points per game as the 2nd sometime 3rd option last year.  So you are saying that he will average fewer point per game as the 1st option?  As far as 3 point shooting is concern, I don't know if you noticed but Dennis has become a better shooter every year and was more efficient at scoring than Millsap was last year

You must not know how this league works???

When you move from being 2nd option to 1st option wit no real other scoring option and no history of being a playmaker... yeah... you will struggle because you become the object that the defense focus' on.   

[thecampster]

5 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

You really have a hard on for Dennis for some reason.  Dennis scored 18 points per game as the 2nd sometime 3rd option last year.  So you are saying that he will average fewer point per game as the 1st option?  As far as 3 point shooting is concern, I don't know if you noticed but Dennis has become a better shooter every year and was more efficient at scoring than Millsap was last year

uhm Dennis took 1.3 more shots per game than Millsap but scored 2 tenths of a point less per game.  How is that more efficient?

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, Diesel said:

You must not know how this league works???

When you move from being 2nd option to 1st option wit no real other scoring option and no history of being a playmaker... yeah... you will struggle because you become the object that the defense focus' on.   

Lets see...Hardin averaged how many ppg as the 3rd option in OKC and Now he averages what?  You kill me brother

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

uhm Dennis took 1.3 more shots per game than Millsap but scored 2 tenths of a point less per game.  How is that more efficient?

EFG%

Millsap 48%

Dennis 49%

[Lurker]

For the top guys, I will do more numbers.

What I think will be the starting lineup...

Dennis Schröder: 21 PTS/7 AST/3 REB (46% FG/35% 3PT/82% FT)

- This has nothing to do with me hating on anyone, but he's shown twice that he just isn't that good with a traditional center and it's an adjustment for him. When he played with the floor spaced for all of the game, he put up prime TP numbers last year and outstanding FG%.
No, these are not the numbers he put up last year without a traditional center, I mean those numbers are STUPIDLY good.

Kent Bazemore: 12 PTS/5 REB/3 AST/1.5 STL (43.9% FG/36% 3PT/75.7% FT)

- Unless he has another undisclosed knee injury he will show that he is okay, not great.

Taurean Prince: 11.5 PTS/6.5 REB/1.8 STL (41.2% FG/35% 3PT/78% FT)

- He will struggle in half court offense without Millsap to feed off of but will be good on the fastbreak and a decent spot up shooter.

Dewayne Dedmond: 8 PTS/10 REB/1.5 BLK (55% FG/60% FT)

- Solid season. Might be a little high as he might not play starter's mins but I do indeed expect him to be starting.

Ersan Ilyasova: 14 PTS/8 REB (44% FG/37% 3PT/79% FT)

- Veteran stretch 4 will continue being a veteran stretch 4. No, he's not the center, I just had it backwards.

On to the bench...

John Collins: 10 PTS on good efficiency. Unfortunately I doubt Bud plays him much at first.
Deandre Bembry: Flashes Boris Diaw as a guard/forward like potential.
Mike Muscala: Continues to do the little things that Bud loves.
Marco Belinelli: Has a good shooting season, gets flipped.

[Lurker]

And before people ask me, no, I don't think the team will be good. It will be a bad team with players putting up some OK stats but derping up, like Bazemore's derps will hurt and while Taurean will flash, he will continue making horrendous looking mistakes like he did when Millsap wasn't around.

[AHF]

40 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

EFG%

Millsap 48%

Dennis 49%

Probably should use the more complete number:

TS%

Millsap 54.2%

Dennis 53.3%

 

They were very similar last season but free throws count and pushed Sap ahead on scoring efficiency.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

Lets see...Hardin averaged how many ppg as the 3rd option in OKC and Now he averages what?  You kill me brother

So you think Dennis has Hardin ability?   Hardin was an off the bench player in OKC.  He proved that he could be the attraction in Houston.  Maybe that's whats wrong with Hawks fans.  Maybe they believe that Dennis is the next Hardin and Millsap was holding him back.

 

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, Diesel said:

So you think Dennis has Hardin ability?   Hardin was an off the bench player in OKC.  He proved that he could be the attraction in Houston.  Maybe that's whats wrong with Hawks fans.  Maybe they believe that Dennis is the next Hardin and Millsap was holding him back.

 

I knew your brain would go there...If I thought they were the same type scorer, my prediction on his scoring average would be much higher now wouldn't it. Its just simple trajectory brother...higher usage equals more production.

[Diesel]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

I knew your brain would go there...If I thought they were the same type scorer, my prediction on his scoring average would be much higher now wouldn't it. Its just simple trajectory brother...higher usage equals more production.

You can't have the same trajectory when you have a totally different team.  YOu doubt that Defenses are going to focus on Dennis.  You think that For all of his "inefficiency" Millsap's presence took the pressure off of Dennis.  Dennis may think he's Westbrook or Hardin but in the end.. we will see just what he is. 

[Peoriabird]

12 hours ago, Diesel said:

You can't have the same trajectory when you have a totally different team.  YOu doubt that Defenses are going to focus on Dennis.  You think that For all of his "inefficiency" Millsap's presence took the pressure off of Dennis.  Dennis may think he's Westbrook or Hardin but in the end.. we will see just what he is. 

In fact one can make the argument that with Howard clogging the middle last year made Dennis ability to score in the paint a lot harder. Now getting into the paint should be easier for the Menace.

[AHF]

I think it is a very safe bet that Dennis' scoring should rise this year with increased usage.  What I'm concerned about is whether he can maintain or improve his efficiency.

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think it is a very safe bet that Dennis' scoring should rise this year with increased usage.  What I'm concerned about is whether he can maintain or improve his efficiency.

Why wouldn't he...open lane...improve 3 point shooter. His efficiency went up in the playoffs do why would it drop after a summer of working on his game?

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Why wouldn't he...open lane...improve 3 point shooter. His efficiency went up in the playoffs do why would it drop after a summer of working on his game?

It is frequently the case that more attempts combined with more defensive attention translates to worse shots and worse shooting %s.

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

It is frequently the case that more attempts combined with more defensive attention translates to worse shots and worse shooting %s.

He is a point guard by the way and has the option of passing out of increased defensive attention right? Plus he has been in the league 4 years so it not like teams haven't tried to stop him...Washington knew what kind of player he was and still couldn't stop him.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

He is a point guard by the way and has the option of passing out of increased defensive attention right? Plus he has been in the league 4 years so it not like teams haven't tried to stop him...Washington knew what kind of player he was and still couldn't stop him.

I'm predicting increased ppg but decreased FG/3pt% unless he fundamentally continues to improve his shot -- which is possible.  I fully expect other teams will mark him more closely and will ignore the other players on the court to a greater extent than they did when Millsap and Timmy were out there.

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm predicting increased ppg but decreased FG/3pt% unless he fundamentally continues to improve his shot -- which is possible.  I fully expect other teams will mark him more closely and will ignore the other players on the court to a greater extent than they did when Millsap and Timmy were out there.

I say the same... but not increased ppg.  I suspect and inefficient ppg somewhere around where he was last season.   This season will be a struggle season for the whole team.  As they used to say about Mookie.  As go Dennis, so goes the Hawks.