Basketball Insiders | "Look for Atlanta’s rebuild to proceed rapidly"

[sturt]

Quote

 

"... While the Hawks will undoubtedly take a major step back this season with many of the team’s top scorers and impact defenders departed, Atlanta may not perform as poorly as some observers predict. There are enough pieces here that the Hawks could win enough games to hurt their chances of gaining one of the top three picks in the upcoming draft. Budenholzer is ultra-competitive and a former assistant with the world champion Spurs, and you can be sure that “tanking” is not in his vocabulary. It’s an intriguing collection of talent, and these young Hawks will be playing to win." ....

 

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-pm-an-early-look-at-the-rebuilding-hawks/

[Buzzard]

35 minutes ago, sturt said:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-pm-an-early-look-at-the-rebuilding-hawks/

I am in agreement with the opinion we will not be as bad as people think. I predicted 30 to 35 wins and missing the playoffs; this article sounds like this is close to what they are saying also.

[LucastheThird]

I'm against tanking.

 

But...I would rather tank and have a higher chance at a high lottery pick than just missing the playoffs.

[KB21]

The idea that this will not be a long rebuild is based upon a lot of assumptions.  First, they are assuming that Dennis Schröder continues to ascend as a player.  I think this year could be a year where he puts up big raw numbers but still lags behind in the advanced stats.  Why?  Because he's the only creator on the offense this year.   Second, this is assuming that Taurean Prince, DeAndre Bembry, and John Collins all develop into at least key rotational pieces.  Third, this is assuming that the correct pick will be made when you do get that high lottery pick in 2018 and that you can get two contributing players with those two late first round picks, and then again with what will be another lottery pick in 2019 and quite possibly another mid first round pick depending upon just how bad Cleveland is after the native son leaves them again.  Fourth, there is an assumption that these players will all be meaningful contributors within a short period of time.  Fifth, there is an assumption that Atlanta will be able to recruit and sign a high level free agent during the next two off seasons.

I still feel that 2017-2018 is going to be very bad, and with the dedication to youth, I don't see this as a quick turnaround.

 

[hazer]

27-32 wins

[Buzzard]

2 hours ago, KB21 said:

The idea that this will not be a long rebuild is based upon a lot of assumptions.  First, they are assuming that Dennis Schröder continues to ascend as a player.  I think this year could be a year where he puts up big raw numbers but still lags behind in the advanced stats.  Why?  Because he's the only creator on the offense this year.  

Second, this is assuming that Taurean Prince, DeAndre Bembry, and John Collins all develop into at least key rotational pieces. 

Third, this is assuming that the correct pick will be made when you do get that high lottery pick in 2018 and that you can get two contributing players with those two late first round picks, and then again with what will be another lottery pick in 2019 and quite possibly another mid first round pick depending upon just how bad Cleveland is after the native son leaves them again. 

Fourth, there is an assumption that these players will all be meaningful contributors within a short period of time. 

Fifth, there is an assumption that Atlanta will be able to recruit and sign a high level free agent during the next two off seasons.

I still feel that 2017-2018 is going to be very bad, and with the dedication to youth, I don't see this as a quick turnaround.

 

Kind of repetitive with 2nd and 4th. The flip side assumption is Prince, Collins and/or Bembry do not develop. I would argue that only two of them really need to turn out to be rock solid starters when paired up with Dennis to give us a good young core with plenty of cap flexibility over the next three seasons; along plenty of picks to use.

When you compare us to a normal long term rebuild, how many of those teams had or have eight to nine 1st round picks over a five year span? What I mean by that is Prince, Bembry, and Collins have been picked these past two seasons, and now we have five to six picks coming up over the next three.

We are ahead of the game with Prince, Bembry, and Collins and five to six more picks to go. Or one could say we are already two years in and still have three more years left. Having a starting caliber PG who is just 23 years old is a heck of a boost as that is one position we do not have to draft for or chase down in free agency.

Eight to nine picks over a five year span is a heck of a lot better than just five picks over the same five year span. No such thing as a guarantee but even you have to admit that is a lot more to work with than a normal stagnant rebuild with just one measly pick a year and cap space.

I think this is the main point for those of us who are positive. We are using almost dbl the picks a normal rebuild gets; that should increase our chances just by applying simple logic.

Edited August 17, 2017 by Buzzard

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, KB21 said:

The idea that this will not be a long rebuild is based upon a lot of assumptions.  First, they are assuming that Dennis Schröder continues to ascend as a player.  I think this year could be a year where he puts up big raw numbers but still lags behind in the advanced stats.  Why?  Because he's the only creator on the offense this year.   Second, this is assuming that Taurean Prince, DeAndre Bembry, and John Collins all develop into at least key rotational pieces.  Third, this is assuming that the correct pick will be made when you do get that high lottery pick in 2018 and that you can get two contributing players with those two late first round picks, and then again with what will be another lottery pick in 2019 and quite possibly another mid first round pick depending upon just how bad Cleveland is after the native son leaves them again.  Fourth, there is an assumption that these players will all be meaningful contributors within a short period of time.  Fifth, there is an assumption that Atlanta will be able to recruit and sign a high level free agent during the next two off seasons.

I still feel that 2017-2018 is going to be very bad, and with the dedication to youth, I don't see this as a quick turnaround.

 

I agree. Too many assumptions that are only made because Atlanta had a history of overcoming low odds but there is no Sap or Al anymore, we don't even have Tim. This will be a terrible team, they will play hard and smart but they will suck 

[DS5]

And the article doesn't even mention the fact that we'll be one of very few teams next season with significant cap space. Before all the debbie downers can cry about it, I get that we won't be a FAcy destination for the top players, but we'll have enough room to make it enticing for young players looking to get paid. That's without even mentioning all the other teams that will have to off-load some contracts eventually and we'll be in prime position to take advantage of that, whether it's from an immediate talent standpoint or in the way of more picks. 2 or 3 years max, before we are competitive again (top 4 in the East), and by the end of the regular season, I think we'll be fighting for a playoff spot (not that I want that). 

[Plainview1981]

7 hours ago, KB21 said:

The idea that this will not be a long rebuild is based upon a lot of assumptions.  First, they are assuming that Dennis Schröder continues to ascend as a player.  I think this year could be a year where he puts up big raw numbers but still lags behind in the advanced stats.  Why?  Because he's the only creator on the offense this year.   Second, this is assuming that Taurean Prince, DeAndre Bembry, and John Collins all develop into at least key rotational pieces.  Third, this is assuming that the correct pick will be made when you do get that high lottery pick in 2018 and that you can get two contributing players with those two late first round picks, and then again with what will be another lottery pick in 2019 and quite possibly another mid first round pick depending upon just how bad Cleveland is after the native son leaves them again.  Fourth, there is an assumption that these players will all be meaningful contributors within a short period of time.  Fifth, there is an assumption that Atlanta will be able to recruit and sign a high level free agent during the next two off seasons.

I still feel that 2017-2018 is going to be very bad, and with the dedication to youth, I don't see this as a quick turnaround.

 

It's not unheard of for a team to lose lots of talent and rebound quickly... Portland did it just a few years ago.

[NBASupes]

54 minutes ago, Hotlanta1981 said:

It's not unheard of for a team to lose lots of talent and rebound quickly... Portland did it just a few years ago.

It's not. I think this will be an one to two year process. Bembry ETA is 2018. Collins is 2019 and Dennis will be improving. 2019 could be a decent just missed the playoffs season.

[KB21]

47 minutes ago, Hotlanta1981 said:

It's not unheard of for a team to lose lots of talent and rebound quickly... Portland did it just a few years ago.

I have actually thought about that, but how much does this Hawks team actually compare to the 2012-2013 Portland Trail Blazers?  Looking at the 2012 roster, their main minute gainers were Damian Lillard (22), Nicolas Batum (24), LaMarcus Aldridge (27), Wesley Matthews (26), JJ Hickson (24), and Myers Leonard (20).  Lillard and Leonard were rookies, and Batum was going into his 5th season.  That team won 33 games.   

[NBASupes]

4 hours ago, KB21 said:

I have actually thought about that, but how much does this Hawks team actually compare to the 2012-2013 Portland Trail Blazers?  Looking at the 2012 roster, their main minute gainers were Damian Lillard (22), Nicolas Batum (24), LaMarcus Aldridge (27), Wesley Matthews (26), JJ Hickson (24), and Myers Leonard (20).  Lillard and Leonard were rookies, and Batum was going into his 5th season.  That team won 33 games.   

The talent even at that time was substantially more than this squad by a mile. 

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

My point exactly when people want to post about next year's draft... We aren't bad enough to gain a top 3 pick.  We're more around 8-10 at worse.  Likely, we'll be an 8th seed and get swept by Boston in the first round.  For us to be great within five years, guys like Schröder, Collins, and Prince will be used as trade bait to bring in some disgruntled star.

[AHF]

I don't think we are making the playoffs this year.  I'm not worried about that even as bad as the East is right now.

[KB21]

I honestly don't know how anyone can look at the make up of this roster and conclude that this team will make the playoffs, even with how weak the East is this year.  Brooklyn may actually be better than the Hawks this year.  The only team that I feel is definitely worse than Atlanta is Chicago right now.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

3 hours ago, KB21 said:

I honestly don't know how anyone can look at the make up of this roster and conclude that this team will make the playoffs, even with how weak the East is this year.  Brooklyn may actually be better than the Hawks this year.  The only team that I feel is definitely worse than Atlanta is Chicago right now.

Old man Wade makes Chicago better than us... But as competitive as Bud is, he'll get the absolute most out of this squad and could squeak us into the playoffs.  I just hope Schlenk has given Bud some incentive to tank.

[DS5]

4 hours ago, KB21 said:

I honestly don't know how anyone can look at the make up of this roster and conclude that this team will make the playoffs, even with how weak the East is this year.  Brooklyn may actually be better than the Hawks this year.  The only team that I feel is definitely worse than Atlanta is Chicago right now.

Cleveland, Boston, Washington, Toronto, Milwaukee are probably the only 5 teams pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot. After that....I think it's wide open.

Charlotte will probably finish somewhere between 7-9, but are they that much better than last season? I don't know that Dwight is going to put them over the top.

Miami is probably another playoff team. They've added 1 major piece in Olynyk...does he really make them that much better? They didn't make the playoffs last season.

For as much hype Philly is getting, but what have those young players done so far? Sure, Riddick is a good piece and they drafted a possible star in Fultz...but he's a rook and will have to get used to the NBA first. The team is used to losing.

The rest of the east is garbage. Brooklyn, Chicago, Detroit, Indiana, NY, Orlando...which of those teams are going to have a better record than us?

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, DS5 said:

Cleveland, Boston, Washington, Toronto, Milwaukee are probably the only 5 teams pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot. After that....I think it's wide open.

Charlotte will probably finish somewhere between 7-9, but are they that much better than last season? I don't know that Dwight is going to put them over the top.

Miami is probably another playoff team. They've added 1 major piece in Olynyk...does he really make them that much better? They didn't make the playoffs last season.

For as much hype Philly is getting, but what have those young players done so far? Sure, Riddick is a good piece and they drafted a possible star in Fultz...but he's a rook and will have to get used to the NBA first. The team is used to losing.

The rest of the east is garbage. Brooklyn, Chicago, Detroit, Indiana, NY, Orlando...which of those teams are going to have a better record than us?

Howard, Malik Monk, Michael Carter-Williams

https://swarmandsting.com/2017/01/10/charlotte-hornets-injuries-highlight-lack-of-depth/

Edited August 18, 2017 by thecampster

[AHF]

3 hours ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

Old man Wade makes Chicago better than us... But as competitive as Bud is, he'll get the absolute most out of this squad and could squeak us into the playoffs.  I just hope Schlenk has given Bud some incentive to tank.

Supposedly, Chicago is buying him out.

[BigDog90]

On 8/17/2017 at 9:45 AM, KB21 said:

The idea that this will not be a long rebuild is based upon a lot of assumptions.  First, they are assuming that Dennis Schröder continues to ascend as a player.  I think this year could be a year where he puts up big raw numbers but still lags behind in the advanced stats.  Why?  Because he's the only creator on the offense this year.   Second, this is assuming that Taurean Prince, DeAndre Bembry, and John Collins all develop into at least key rotational pieces.  Third, this is assuming that the correct pick will be made when you do get that high lottery pick in 2018 and that you can get two contributing players with those two late first round picks, and then again with what will be another lottery pick in 2019 and quite possibly another mid first round pick depending upon just how bad Cleveland is after the native son leaves them again.  Fourth, there is an assumption that these players will all be meaningful contributors within a short period of time.  Fifth, there is an assumption that Atlanta will be able to recruit and sign a high level free agent during the next two off seasons.

I still feel that 2017-2018 is going to be very bad, and with the dedication to youth, I don't see this as a quick turnaround.

 

I can imagine Dennis would get moved. He'll probably be the Hawks' biggest asset. Schlenk said he is looking for another Curry, Klay and Draymond. Dennis doesn't really fit the Curry mold. 

I wonder would Bud try to use Marco in the starting lineup like he did Korver or will he start Baze at SG to try to showcase him. 

I trust Schlenk's picks. It'd be neat if they pull off what SAC did, getting 3 guys in the first. 

I don't expect ATL to make a high level free agent signing within the next 2 years. I expect growth from Dennis, Delaney, Bembry, Prince an Collins. 

I expect vets to play a lot up to the trade deadline. Then, see guys like Ersan, Marco get bought out and maybe Baze/Dennis moved. I think with the current players on the roster now, the system will run smoother.