The Atlanta Hawks trajectory in the future

[NBASupes]

We have three first round picks in this draft assuming Houston finishes outside of the top 10 and Minny outside of the lottery. We will like have the 31st to 33th pick in the draft as well.

We have no franchise players.

We have three building blocks. In Dennis, Prince, and Collins. 

We have three other value tradable assets in Bellineli, Ersan and Dedmon.

Dedmon has resignability value regardless of who we draft due to fit, value and cost. 

Our position of weakness is nothing. We have no weak positions. 

Our position of strength is nothing. We have no positions we are exactly strong at either. 

Dennis could be traded for the right price as well as anyone on our roster. 

We are in the drafting best fit and player situation at this time.

Supes wants:

I would really like to take a top five pick. Trade Dennis and others picks for the opposite of the top 5 pick. I want Miles Bridges or Jaren Jackson Jr. If we take Bamba, Bagley, or Ayton, I want Bridges. If we draft the other three, then JJJ. 

I want to land Marcus Smart. Not my ideal PG but I really want to trade our 2019 pick for a top PG anyway. If we can't land Smart due to unreasonable contract demands, bargin bin shopping or using Bazemore and Bembry as a PG duo off the bench works for a tanking squad. 

I would prefer to trade our 2019 pick for a top PG. 

I really don't want to be rebuilding in 2020. If you trade well and draft well, Atlanta should not have to rebuild.

[Lurker]

You know good and well that a 2 year timeline is being completely unrealistic. You're looking at a 4 year timeline, at best.

[NBASupes]

10 minutes ago, Lurker said:

You know good and well that a 2 year timeline is being completely unrealistic. You're looking at a 4 year timeline, at best.

Considering the way we are set up, why can't we win in 2020?

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Considering the way we are set up, why can't we win in 2020?

Our guys will still be too young and green at that point.  We're going to be losing for at least 5 years.

[AHF]

We could be competing in 2020 but we won't know enough after this draft to say one way or the other.  You absolutely do not want to sell out your future picks and flexibility before you have the core to compete like the Pelicans, Kings and other teams did once they merely got one stud player.

[NBASupes]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

We could be competing in 2020 but we won't know enough after this draft to say one way or the other.  You absolutely do not want to sell out your future picks and flexibility before you have the core to compete like the Pelicans, Kings and other teams did once they merely got one stud player.

I don't think we need that many studs. We just need one and a strong vet PG. Collins can be a stud. Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, Doncic or Porter Jr with Bridges or Jackson. For a top 5 pick, we could land a star PG. 

We could be loaded. 

Think about it:

Lillard

Bridges or Doncic

Prince

Collins 

Ayton or Bamba or Jackson Jr

 

Edited December 11, 2017 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

19 minutes ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

Our guys will still be too young and green at that point.  We're going to be losing for at least 5 years.

If we retain the vets, we will be better for it

[AHF]

35 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I don't think we need that many studs. We just need one and a strong vet PG. Collins can be a stud. Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, Doncic or Porter Jr with Bridges or Jackson. For a top 5 pick, we could land a star PG. 

We could be loaded. 

Think about it:

Lillard

Bridges or Doncic

Prince

Collins 

Ayton or Bamba or Jackson Jr

 

We aren't getting Ayton and Doncic who I could buy into as a pair to go all-in and try to win a ring around with a stud PG.  Go with Bridges and Jackson Jr and that is super unappealing as a championship core if you are selling out your future picks to get Lillard.

[High5]

1 hour ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

Our guys will still be too young and green at that point.  We're going to be losing for at least 5 years.

That's a very pessimistic guess. If you're counting this season as one of those 5 years, then year 4 is the absolute latest we should make the playoffs. If we don't then Schlenk messed up along the way or we were devastated by injuries. We have the tools to make the playoffs in year 3 if Schlenk does good work. 

In all honesty, if Collins plays as well as we hope and we draft a strong ROTY contender then we could potentially make the playoffs next season. We'll have money to work with in FA. That can backfire, though. The last thing you want to do after committing to tanking is jump the gun the very next season.

[Diesel]

My take is this:

Right now, we share  a space in the league with Indy, Orlando, and Brooklyn.  We have nothing but prospects.  

Good prospects = John Collins, Dedmon. 

Bad Prospects = Baze. 

Middling =   Dennis, Prince. 

If Bud is going to be the coach going forward, then we need to build a team that Bud can work with.  That means shooters everywhere.  Especially at the forward positions. 

The great thing is that we have picks.   I would not rebuild with all the picks.  I would definitely try to move Dennis and one of our later picks for an earlier pick in this draft.   This draft has good prospects.  

Free Agent wise, I believe in targeting positions of need. 

My FA targets for this year are:

Nikola Mirotic and Seth Curry.   It builds on the idea of shooting from outside.  I would hold on to Prince to see what he becomes.  I would hold on to Baze as a lockerroom presence.   I would also pick up one of these vet PGs like Raymond Felton or Even Jarrett Jack.  Somebody who doesn't have to put in big minutes but can fit in and play spot minutes and not be upset (it doesn't have to be those guys specifically but somebody who can fill that role).   Finally, a last free agent target is the pipe dream.. Paul George.   If we could Joe Johnson Paul George, I would. (i.e. tell him that it can be his team.).  

Draft picks... Somebody at the 1 or 3 position that is going to be a star?

This is the start of a 4 year plan.   I really like Seth Curry and his shooting as being the next Korver like guy.   I really like Mirotic because he can be effective in the right environment.  I would resign Dedmon.   He has a lot of  potential.

[Diesel]

36 minutes ago, High5 said:

That's a very pessimistic guess. If you're counting this season as one of those 5 years, then year 4 is the absolute latest we should make the playoffs. If we don't then Schlenk messed up along the way or we were devastated by injuries. We have the tools to make the playoffs in year 3 if Schlenk does good work. 

In all honesty, if Collins plays as well as we hope and we draft a strong ROTY contender then we could potentially make the playoffs next season. We'll have money to work with in FA. That can backfire, though. The last thing you want to do after committing to tanking is jump the gun the very next season.

One thing you have to guage is the ability of these other teams who are also trying to make the playoffs.

 You can almost guarantee that Boston, Toronto, Milwaukee, Washington, and maybe Indy will have guaranteed spots in the playoffs over the next 4 years.  That leaves 3 spots that will be us, Charlotte, Detroit, NY, Philly and Miami will fight for.    We are young and they are young.   Right now, they have better potential than us.  Which of those 3 can we beat out.. and let's not pretend that they will stand stagnant while we get better.  

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

We aren't getting Ayton and Doncic who I could buy into as a pair to go all-in and try to win a ring around with a stud PG.  Go with Bridges and Jackson Jr and that is super unappealing as a championship core if you are selling out your future picks to get Lillard.

No, we are getting one of the big 5, not two of them. Then trading Dennis for Bridges or JJJ to Orlando or PHX 

 

Then trade 2019 for Lillard or a stud PG who could come available 

[High5]

23 minutes ago, Diesel said:

One thing you have to guage is the ability of these other teams who are also trying to make the playoffs.

 You can almost guarantee that Boston, Toronto, Milwaukee, Washington, and maybe Indy will have guaranteed spots in the playoffs over the next 4 years.  That leaves 3 spots that will be us, Charlotte, Detroit, NY, Philly and Miami will fight for.    We are young and they are young.   Right now, they have better potential than us.  Which of those 3 can we beat out.. and let's not pretend that they will stand stagnant while we get better.  

A lot can happen in 4 years. We've gone from 60 wins to 29th in less time. Boston will in all likelihood remain in a good place, but I don't think you can guarantee anything with the others. "Better" potential is also questionable for some of those teams, especially when you factor in coaching. Most of this depends on how good Schlenk is. He has a golden opportunity to set us up for many years of success if he uses our draft picks and cap space effectively.

[Diesel]

10 hours ago, High5 said:

A lot can happen in 4 years. We've gone from 60 wins to 29th in less time. Boston will in all likelihood remain in a good place, but I don't think you can guarantee anything with the others. "Better" potential is also questionable for some of those teams, especially when you factor in coaching. Most of this depends on how good Schlenk is. He has a golden opportunity to set us up for many years of success if he uses our draft picks and cap space effectively.

What I looked at is:

Milwaukee - Greek Freak. 

Washington - Walls and Beal. 

Toronto - DeRozan and Lowry. 

Indy - Oladipo and Sabonis. 

These teams are doing well now and will not remain stagnant either. 

[Packfill]

The Hawks are going nowhere fast until they get a foundational player, and assuming that guy is an 18/19 year they draft in 2018, that foundational player is going to need a minimum of two years of seasoning.

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, Packfill said:

The Hawks are going nowhere fast until they get a foundational player, and assuming that guy is an 18/19 year they draft in 2018, that foundational player is going to need a minimum of two years of seasoning.

Yep, which means 2 more years of lottery picks after this one.  Don't be shocked when this team is worse in year 2 than they are this year.  That on top of the fact that there are no guarantees that the player they take in 2018 will be a foundational guy.  That player is more likely another Andrew Wiggins/Jabari Parker.  

[Diesel]

Here's a little something to chew on in this regard. 

The Knicks got Porzingas.  A rookie Phenom.  Great player... Paired with multiallstar Melo.. and couldn't beat a drum. 

 

The Pelicans have had Anthony Davis for a while now.   Haven't sniffed the second round. 

Minnesota got Townes, Wiggins and still no playoffs. 

No matter how many times Orlando, Philly, Brooklynn, and Dallas goes and get another lottery pick... they still can't find their way back to the playoffs. 

[Packfill]

9 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Here's a little something to chew on in this regard. 

The Knicks got Porzingas.  A rookie Phenom.  Great player... Paired with multiallstar Melo.. and couldn't beat a drum. 

 

The Pelicans have had Anthony Davis for a while now.   Haven't sniffed the second round. 

Minnesota got Townes, Wiggins and still no playoffs. 

No matter how many times Orlando, Philly, Brooklynn, and Dallas goes and get another lottery pick... they still can't find their way back to the playoffs. 

The take away is not so much the number of picks, it is getting that foundational guy and then building a team around him in a manner, and on a time line, that fits with that foundational players peak career output. 

So if you draft a 19 year old you need to evaluate for a year or two to see if he has cornerstone player potential and then spend the next three years building a team around him with the idea of peaking beginning in that cornerstone players 4th or 5th season.

To be clear, once the Hawks let their vet big-men walk I don't think they had any choice but to follow this path, but it is a long road to be certain, even assuming they do it right.

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Here's a little something to chew on in this regard. 

The Knicks got Porzingas.  A rookie Phenom.  Great player... Paired with multiallstar Melo.. and couldn't beat a drum. 

 

The Pelicans have had Anthony Davis for a while now.   Haven't sniffed the second round. 

Minnesota got Townes, Wiggins and still no playoffs. 

No matter how many times Orlando, Philly, Brooklynn, and Dallas goes and get another lottery pick... they still can't find their way back to the playoffs. 

All true. But then there is Golden State, who built a dynasty with their young picks.

[KB21]

8 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

All true. But then there is Golden State, who built a dynasty with their young picks.

Also note that things did not start meshing with GS till they traded for Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut, two VETERAN players, and note that they did not make the playoffs until 5 years after they drafted Curry.