Help on pre-lottery tests for accuracy

[DJlaysitup]

Obviously there have been some questions about the "ping-pong ball" thing in the NBA draft lottery.  In the Atlanta lottery we get to actually see the balls flying around in the air and it is obvious that it is random - luck - in the NBA we have to rely on "league honesty".

So - what I am putting together is a pre-test for the NBA draft lottery.  I am using one of those big blue water delivery thingies (which I have one of) and I will cut out a spot at the bottom to allow insertion of my lawn blower tube.  The blower has a low/high setting so I will mix the ping pong balls on low - and then hit the high.  I'll put some duct (duck) tape around the top to catch the 1st ball - then 2nd - etc. 

I have a ping-pong table and I know how to get large quantities of balls cheap.

My question is - how soon will I know what teams get how many balls?  This is key since I want to run multiple tests and do an average prior to the draft announcement.

Thanks, DJ

[AHF]

Whether the broadcast the drawing or not, this should be posted onto Youtube or somewhere Squawkers can enjoy!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 2/24/2018 at 5:25 PM, DJlaysitup said:

Obviously there have been some questions about the "ping-pong ball" thing in the NBA draft lottery.  In the Atlanta lottery we get to actually see the balls flying around in the air and it is obvious that it is random - luck - in the NBA we have to rely on "league honesty".

So - what I am putting together is a pre-test for the NBA draft lottery.  I am using one of those big blue water delivery thingies (which I have one of) and I will cut out a spot at the bottom to allow insertion of my lawn blower tube.  The blower has a low/high setting so I will mix the ping pong balls on low - and then hit the high.  I'll put some duct (duck) tape around the top to catch the 1st ball - then 2nd - etc. 

I have a ping-pong table and I know how to get large quantities of balls cheap.

My question is - how soon will I know what teams get how many balls?  This is key since I want to run multiple tests and do an average prior to the draft announcement.

Thanks, DJ

Keep in mind that the NBA ( if I remember correctly ) does something like a "Pick 4" draw to determine draft position.  To replicate what the NBA does, you're going to have to write out something like 1,000 possible draw combinations, and assign each 4-ball combination to a particular team.

And you'll basically know now how many "ping pong balls" each team will get, due to their draft position.

1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

[AHF]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Keep in mind that the NBA ( if I remember correctly ) does something like a "Pick 4" draw to determine draft position.  To replicate what the NBA does, you're going to have to write out something like 1,000 possible draw combinations, and assign each 4-ball combination to a particular team.

And you'll basically know now how many "ping pong balls" each team will get, due to their draft position.

1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Having 30 balls gives you 1000 combinations (3 sets of 0-9).    Just assign combos 001 - 250 to team 1, 251-449 to team 2, etc.