How Will The Hawks Look Next Year?

[KB21]

21 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Out of all of the rookies, Bagley is the only one I think would start Day 1 for Bud. I clearly don't see Collins starting. He's only starting due to the tank. 

Bagley would be unplayable for Bud on most nights due to his defense.

[NBASupes]

Just now, KB21 said:

Bagley would be unplayable for Bud on most nights due to his defense.

Except this isn't true. He plays better defense than Collins by a mile. All of Bagley defensive issues like Tatum's can and will be fixed by experience at least in regards to team defense. His post defense doesn't matter as much as Bud will go back to the switching style defense which he prefers when we had Horford and Millsap. 

[KB21]

24 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

This is what KB thinks in his mind. He thinks Bagley just isn't good. He thinks that Bagley isn't that quick, isn't that fast or at least that much faster than Collins, doesn't think he's all that athletic, doesn't think he can defend a lick, doesn't think he can shoot a lick, he thinks that Bagley is just hype and fluff from HS and scouts can't let go of the past and that picking him will essentially be like drafting John Collins at the top 3 instead of the great value Collins was at 17. This is what KB thinks. That's why he's bringing up Wiggins, someone who underwhelming and has been underwhelming since HS in his mind. This is what's going on in KB's mind. 

 
In reality, he doesn't really focus on Bagley. He just doesn't like him for the Hawks. He doesn't really focus much on him based on that along. So he will just use articles that disparage him and if those people start changing their viewpoint from that to more positive, he stops using them completely. He doesn't really watch Bagley at all. I can tell he's speaking off of emotion when he says things like, he's a carbon copy of Collins. He can't shoot. He can't dribble especially in isolation. He can defend a lick. All of these things have been completely dispelled. There is some accuracy to his post defense and even team defense but that's not the message he's trying to come across with. His message is simple. I like Collins. I think he could be solid, Bagley isn't that good to me, take the fork value.

In reality, Bagley is supremely better. He has elite abilities. The only elite trait Collins has is as a finisher and his hands are too small to hold to the rock at times. While he is an excellent athlete, he's not once in a generation athlete. There is a massive gap. He then tries to use Amare but that excuses the fact that Bagley has superior at this stage BBIQ, range, speed, lateral quickness, agility, offensive instincts, and rebounding skills altogether. But I guess he says it because it covers the, he's just an excellent scorer Supes point he wants to come across with. 

Like I said, we don't have a point of reference for him. Bosh is the closest. They have more similarities than anyone else but Bosh tools are better. That standing reach and wingspan Bosh as gave him the ability to play PF/C when he went from 220 to 250. Bagley who is already 235 probably doesn't have 250 in him. Maybe 240-243 is a sound range for him. 

Bagley III #1 on my board. He's the only generational talent in this class.  I've been on record for saying there isn't a generational talent in this class but I been saying Bagley is as well. I have to make up my mind. While I am not 100%, I am giving him a 90% generational rating. He's not Shaq, Hakeem, or Magic or Bird but he's a tier above an elite prospect for me. I think he will be in the running for NBA All Star game as a true rookie. 

None of this is true.  I think Bagley is very athletic, but I think that is his only positive trait outside of his motor.  His skill level is poor.  There are a lot of elite athletes that can't make it in the NBA because they lack the skill level to play in the NBA.

[KB21]

Just now, NBASupes said:

Except this isn't true. He plays better defense than Collins by a mile. All of Bagley defensive issues like Tatum's can and will be fixed by experience at least in regards to team defense. His post defense doesn't matter as much as Bud will go back to the switching style defense which he prefers when we had Horford and Millsap. 

Yeah.  The big with the lowest defensive BPM among all the bigs at the top of the draft has a chance to become an elite defender in the NBA.  

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

None of this is true.  I think Bagley is very athletic, but I think that is his only positive trait outside of his motor.  His skill level is poor.  There are a lot of elite athletes that can't make it in the NBA because they lack the skill level to play in the NBA.

Everything I wrote is true about what you think. Nothing I wrote really doesn't address how you think. You overall value skill level which is odd to me as Bud doesn't. He wouldn't have chosen Prince. Signed Bazemore and Dedmon. Stuck with Dennis. I think Bagley has a decent set of skills. Nothing overwhelming but pretty normal for a NBA prospect. He clearly is Brandon Roy, Steph Curry, or Damien Lillard but he's as skilled as a number of top guys who came into the draft out of HS or freshman year of college. I think you completely underrate what he is skilled at. His vision, his rebounding instincts, his feel for the ball is a skill, his soft touch around the rim, his assortment of shots and post-up moves in the paint. His spin move, open court handles and decision making. There is a lot of skills he does have. Now, of course, he tends to play off of his elite abilities and it works. He's too quick for almost all. No one can guard him. Not in college at least. Saying his skill level is low is quite insulting to tell you the truth. I don't see one guy in the top 12 of this class with a low skill level. To say that is obviously wrong. 

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Yeah.  The big with the lowest defensive BPM among all the bigs at the top of the draft has a chance to become an elite defender in the NBA.  

You keep talking about this BPM but you never explain all of the other stats that show Bagley in favor. Then you talk about things like the team is better defensively when he's off the court when he was RARELY off the court for the Blue Devils. It doesn't make sense. Why do you say these things when the tape say otherwise. 

Here is what the tape says. He has a lot of on his plate. The only big in this class consistently asked to defend bigs and guards, throughout the game. This is also while playing the most minutes and expecting not to get in foul trouble. Duke had him playing a similar role to Al Horford in Atlanta. This is a freshman we are talking about with this level of responsibility. This isn't no JJJ asked to pick up PnR's. This is Constant switching with him being responsible for protecting teammates, recovering on D, and defending his man. Do you know how hard that is for any player but less a freshman. Most coaches wouldn't dare to give one man that much of a leash. Maybe Bob Huggins with Javon Carter. 

 

So when you talk about this BPM and what not, please watch the tape. 

[KB21]

The tape backs it up.  

[CBAreject]

This is all mental masturbation until we figure out where we will draft.  The top pick is Ayton.  Bagley will probably be #2.  The third pick could be one of 4-5 guys including Bamba, Doncic, JJJ, Young.  The lower we draft, the more our pick becomes dictated by what is left.  

[KB21]

35 minutes ago, CBAreject said:

This is all mental masturbation until we figure out where we will draft.  The top pick is Ayton.  Bagley will probably be #2.  The third pick could be one of 4-5 guys including Bamba, Doncic, JJJ, Young.  The lower we draft, the more our pick becomes dictated by what is left.  

Doncic is the best player in the draft, and it really isn't close.  He may not go #1, because Andrew Wiggins went #1 after all, but he's by far the best player in this draft.

[KB21]

https://fansided.com/2018/01/04/marvin-bagley-draft-prospect-weaknesses-bust-potential/

Quote

There’s still a lot of time for Bagley to improve. He has already shown some gradual improvements in his shooting and feel as the season has gone on, and his rookie contract might end before he’s even close to entering his prime as a player. But some of his weaknesses are pretty significant, and that deserves attention as well. That creates an issue when you’re looking at projecting him in the NBA Draft. He might end up being the best player in the draft, or he could easily struggle once he meets athletes that are his equal. That creates a problem for NBA teams, who neither want to miss on a generational talent nor get saddled with a player that busts out of the league. At this point, it looks like Bagley might be either.

 

[Diesel]

15 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Doncic is the best player in the draft, and it really isn't close.  He may not go #1, because Andrew Wiggins went #1 after all, but he's by far the best player in this draft.

Doncic's Floor is higher than most floors... but he has a low ceiling.   I think Ayton's ceiling is worthy of #1 overall.  That dude could be something fierce.

[KB21]

Zach Harper, who is very very good at evaluating players: https://www.fanragsports.com/nba/marvin-bagley-iii-proving-he-can-play-in-modern-era/

Quote

Ranking the big men in this draft after taking a closer look at all of them, my order would go:

1. Jaren Jackson Jr. — profile

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Deandre Ayton — profile

4. Mohamed Bamba — profile

Yep.  That would be my ranking, with Ayton ahead of Bagley.

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Doncic's Floor is higher than most floors... but he has a low ceiling.   I think Ayton's ceiling is worthy of #1 overall.  That dude could be something fierce.

Ayton's ceiling is directly tied to his defensive potential, which I don't believe he will ever meet.  He's not a rim protector despite his size and long arms.

I think Doncic has both a high floor and a high ceiling.  You don't find many 19 year old players with as well developed skill level as Doncic has.  

[CBAreject]

26 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Doncic is the best player in the draft, and it really isn't close.  He may not go #1, because Andrew Wiggins went #1 after all, but he's by far the best player in this draft.

Don’t disagree and he might go #2, but I bet he is #3-6.  Bamba and JJJ could easily go ahead of Doncic bc “you can’t coach height”

[KB21]

Just now, CBAreject said:

Don’t disagree and he might go #2, but I bet he is #3-6.  Bamba and JJJ could easily go ahead of Doncic bc “you can’t coach height”

Doncic would be perfect for Bud's scheme.  Think of a 6'8" version of Manu Ginobili with better initiating skills.

[CBAreject]

12 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Doncic would be perfect for Bud's scheme.  Think of a 6'8" version of Manu Ginobili with better initiating skills.

Sure.  Hope we get him.  We need to nail this pick hard.  

[KB21]

Just now, CBAreject said:

Sure.  Hope we get him.  We need to nail this pick hard.  

Doncic also has not been polluted by AAU basketball.  His skill development is so far advanced over these college one and done players.  Trae Young is the only one who can come close to his skill level as far as his shooting ability and his ability to be an initiator.  

[High5]

4 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Out of all of the rookies, Bagley is the only one I think would start Day 1 for Bud. I clearly don't see Collins starting. He's only starting due to the tank. 

I expect Collins will be a starter for the next 10+ years. His athleticism is undeniable. Not only can he jump out of the gym, but he has to be one of the quickest leapers in the league. That's a critical advantage around the rim. He consistently scores before the defenders can even react. He also has great body control and can hit some tough shots around defenders. He needs to get stronger, but that's not an issue with NBA trainers. 

We don't much to go on with his shooting to this point, but he's currently at 37.5% from 3 (excluding full-court heaves) which is great for a rookie who didn't shoot 3's in college. And I can still picture those smooth pull-up jumpers he was hitting in SL, and shots like that first midrange jumper he hit over Whiteside. With more reps and confidence I think his shooting will become an asset, especially under this staff. He just needs to get a feel for when to pull the trigger on those open looks instead of being overly focused on swinging the basketball.

I do agree his hands are his biggest issue on offense. He loses his dribble too often when he's backing his man down and he's fumbled plenty of passes and dunk attempts. That's a hard thing to improve on, but not impossible and not something that has to keep him from reaching an All-Star level. And defensively I think we've already seen him improve and exceed expectations. He still has a lot of work to do, particularly off the ball, but that's normal for a rookie. He does have mostly positive defensive metrics for whatever that's worth. 

Basically, Bagley may be a better prospect, but Collins has given us plenty of reason to believe he's legit. I think it's nonsense to say he can only be a starter in a certain system. He just needs players around him who can make relatively simple passes when he's rolling to the basket and not to be expected to be a defensive anchor. 

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, High5 said:

I expect Collins will be a starter for the next 10+ years. His athleticism is undeniable. Not only can he jump out of the gym, but he has to be one of the quickest leapers in the league. That's a critical advantage around the rim. He consistently scores before the defenders can even react. He also has great body control and can hit some tough shots around defenders. He needs to get stronger, but that's not an issue with NBA trainers. 

We don't much to go on with his shooting to this point, but he's currently at 37.5% from 3 (excluding full-court heaves) which is great for a rookie who didn't shoot 3's in college. And I can still picture those smooth pull-up jumpers he was hitting in SL, and shots like that first midrange jumper he hit over Whiteside. With more reps and confidence I think his shooting will become an asset, especially under this staff. He just needs to get a feel for when to pull the trigger on those open looks instead of being overly focused on swinging the basketball.

I do agree his hands are his biggest issue on offense. He loses his dribble too often when he's backing his man down and he's fumbled plenty of passes and dunk attempts. That's a hard thing to improve on, but not impossible and not something that has to keep him from reaching an All-Star level. And defensively I think we've already seen him improve and exceed expectations. He still has a lot of work to do, particularly off the ball, but that's normal for a rookie. He does have mostly positive defensive metrics for whatever that's worth. 

Basically, Bagley may be a better prospect, but Collins has given us plenty of reason to believe he's legit. I think it's nonsense to say he can only be a starter in a certain system. He just needs players around him who can make relatively simple passes when he's rolling to the basket and not to be expected to be a defensive anchor. 

1. Other than the starter for the next 10 years part, I pretty much agree with the first paragraph. 

2. I do believe Collins has some open threes potential as we saw a couple nights ago. But he's never going to be a Chris Bosh stretch 4 type. I do have great hope that he can build some form of threes in his game. 

3. His best chance is really with an elite PnR PG prospect. Someone who is a 100 threat to score but can create for him at a high rate. He doesn't really have the back to the basket feel and he just used his excellent explosiveness in college which is harder to do in the NBA.

4. He's a much better prospect, saying maybe better is underrating him like KB is doing. I want us to get away from overrating Collins to underrate Bagley. He is a special prospect. Collins is more of a classic but yet undervalued prospect. Let's not underrate one to overrate the other. It's not honest discord. 

Collins is a two-tier player. He uses his explosiveness and ability to roll to get points at a high clip. He overly is assisted. He overly plays to his strengths. He's not a player like Bazemore who impacts in a number of areas but unlike Bazemore, Collins does take on more than he can handle. Collins can be a good player. We see players like him in Shawn Kemp make All-Star teams. Without the iso ability, it's going to be hard for Collins to be more than just one dimensional rolling big with excellent athletic ability. We haven't seen players like him have a great deal of success either. Z-Bo is the most recent two-tier to have a very good career and he bounced around till the right opportunity came. I understand your point. Why take on a player in the same position when we got a potentially good one.

The issue I have is the Hawks have good potentially good players in Prince, you have a good one in Dennis, you have two solid ones in Baze and Dedmon and no one is stopping and saying, man don't take Doncic because of Prince or Baze, or don't take Ayton, Bamba, JJJ or Carter Jr for Dedmon. No one is. Why do it now because Collins is young? We already know what type of player he is. If the player who's available is a great fit for what we do, why pass on him? 

[NBASupes]

4 hours ago, Diesel said:

Doncic's Floor is higher than most floors... but he has a low ceiling.   I think Ayton's ceiling is worthy of #1 overall.  That dude could be something fierce.

Other than Ayton being #1, I am in agreement with @Diesel. I am one to say Doncic has a lower ceiling as well and I feel like many are overrating him due to his whiteness. They are watching him and adding white normally seen attributes to his game. 

Doncic is an excellent slasher with great body control, a great feel for the game, with great court vision, shotty decision-making skills, high risk-taking passer, an above average shooter with a low yet quick release, decent crafty handles, a good first step, covers as much ground defensively as an older Kyle Korver and is good at defending passing lanes, and rebounds and reads the ball well. He has a soft touch around the basket and he is a very good post-up player at this stage of his career. Best trait is that he's a natural scorer and bucket getter. He's a four-tier, skillful prospect with athletic questions although not a bad athlete. In the range of prospects, he's comparable to two guards out of college like Bernard King, Mitch Richmond, and James Harden. Most similar to James Harden out of Arizona State. 

That comparison is why white guys are going crazy. A white dude who compares to Harden but let's be clear, Harden was NOT expected even by me and many others to be the player he was today. I really expected a better passing Mitch Richmond. A Hall of Famer but nothing that could be considered a top 50 player of all time which Harden in the range of. 

How did Harden do this as a four-tier prospect:

Shooting - He was an above average shooter in college but came into the NBA and developed into a decent one without the athletic ability to really force the defense hand as a rookie. While his shooting got better his athletic ability forced him into tough shots and his FG% took at hit. He was, for the most part, a good rookie but below average overall player.

I had a lot more written but I must have written over it about his 2nd to 3rd-year progression. :-(. I hate when that happens. That was three to four paragraphs too. 

 

1. Responsibilities- He didn't have to carry a franchise like most top 3-5 picks do. He was asked to do one job, score when Durant and Westbrook need a break and be the #1 facilitator for the 2nd unit. If he was asked to carry a team v. starters, he might not have progressed as much in that year 3 jump that we saw from Harden. The ability to play in a role without too much might have been what took him from the usual four-tier scoring guard pack into the rare scoring playmaker path with LeBron James and Penny Hardaway without the athletic abilities those players had.

2. Style of the NBA of today- It's fair to say, Harden could have been used more at a post player as we saw with King and Richmond in the previous decades. While OKC did use him in post-ups at times, they made it clear that he's the 2nd unit playmaker and the focus on developing that game instead of posting up with the others also could have the impact in turning him into the player he is today. 

3. Personal Drive- Maybe one reason Harden is the player he is today is due to his drive. To go from good shooter in the NBA to elite ATG shooter is almost impossible. He wasn't Steph Curry. He wasn't elite at any level before this one. Some players personal drive is critical as it can't be measured. A number of players went undrafted when Kent was undrafted. Why is it that Kent is a solid NBA player with a 70 contract and most of them are at home, in Europe, Asia, South or Central America, Africa or the G-League while Kent is in the NBA. You can say potential but let's be clear, he went undrafted, this is more of a personal drive attribute. 

 

Edited April 6, 2018 by NBASupes