Is college DRTG a great predictor of a player's defensive potential in the pro's

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

@AHFShelden Williams averaged over 3 bpg over the 4 years he was at Duke but averaged only .5 bpg in the pros.  What happened?

Why I hated the pick. He didn't project athletically in the NBA. He had a great college  Physique. But in the NBA he was an unathletic undersized center with PF size. While he was strong, what good is it if you can't move your feet. He was like Kendrick Perkins at PF. In college, his wingspan and strength was an asset. It really helped he came during the out of HS era, he never had the competition to get exposed like today's players. 

[Peoriabird]

Just now, NBASupes said:

Why I hated the pick. He didn't project athletically in the NBA. He had a great college  Physique. But in the NBA he was an unathletic undersized center with PF size. While he was strong, what good is it if you can't move your feet. He was like Kendrick Perkins at PF. In college, his wingspan and strength was an asset. It really helped he came during the out of HS era, he never had the competition to get exposed like today's players. 

Yep...He never passed the eye test although according to the experts, Block shots per game are suppose to translate from college to the pros! LOL!

[JSmooooove]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Yep...He never passed the eye test although according to the experts, Block shots per game are suppose to translate from college to the pros! LOL!

Chewbacca shouldn't have even been a lottery pick but Billy K was the worst GM of all time. 

[bleachkit]

46 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I doubt it.  Carmelo would have never subverted his own desire to be the guy to be part of a team.  He would have been the monkey wrench in their plan.  You could make a case for Wade or Bosh, but not Anthony, IMO.   Anthony has always been a one dimensional volume shooter who has never contributed to winning.

I'll say this for him. For whatever reason his games translates to international ball, because he plays great with the National teams at the Olympics. He is probably the best Olympic player ever. 

[Peoriabird]

Just now, JSmooooove said:

Chewbacca shouldn't have even been a lottery pick but Billy K was the worst GM of all time. 

He's not the only GM that continues to think it was the right pick for the Hawks at that time.  Our very own message board GM Diesel continues to make that argument!  LOL!

[JTB]

2 hours ago, KB21 said:

I wouldn't be so sure of that.  With a few exceptions, bigs who post a high DBPM tend to pan out in the NBA.  The highest recent defensive BPMs among bigs belong to Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns, and Nerlens Noel.  The thing with these though is that to separate why the two panned out an the other one did not, you do look at offense.  Nerlens Noel was a net zero offensively.  He had a 2.9 OBPM during his only season at Kentucky.  Anthony Davis had a 7.8 OBPM with KAT having a 6.5 OBPM.  Jaren Jackson has a 10.3 DBPM with a 5.1 OBPM.  Mohamed Bamba has a 8.8 DBPM with a 2.4 OBPM.  Bamba fits the profile of Nerlens Noel, whereas JJJ is just a level below that of Anthony Davis and KAT.

DeAndre Ayton's OBPM and DBPM are identical to Jahlil Okafor's.  It's clear he derives most of his value from offense.

I hear ya! The plus/minus stat is very real and should weigh decisions to a certain extent.....but should not be the only thing the hawks use for considering what ever player they are targeting.

To me that plus/minus stat is tricky! Doesn’t tell the whole truth about a player.

[JTB]

2 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I'll say this for him. For whatever reason his games translates to international ball, because he plays great with the National teams at the Olympics. He is probably the best Olympic player ever. 

Melo can play off ball ...as you stated he’s already proved it in the olympics

the problem is that in the nba he wants to be the man instead of the team player he showed he can be in the Olympics on whatever team he’s on. This year is first time in his career that he’s playing with someone on his team with a bigger name (maybe besides iverson) so he don’t get the ball in his hands as much and he’s honestly probably not expecting the ball in his hands as much in OKC.

Unfortunately though for Melo time has passed and he’s well out of his prime....he will go to the HOF cause of his stats and not so much because memorable playoff moments similar to T Mac

[AHF]

41 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Yep...He never passed the eye test although according to the experts, Block shots per game are suppose to translate from college to the pros! LOL!

No stat translates 100%.  You measure the degree of correlation and then combine that with your other data.  Williams was shot and had short arms.  Short armed guys rarely end up as impact shot blockers (a worry for Bagley).  Shelden's rebounding actually did translate pretty well as did his steals.  He averaged over 10 rebounds and 1 steal per 36 playing mostly center.

Waste of a lottery pick given his obvious offensive and physical limitations.

[NBASupes]

30 minutes ago, JTB said:

Melo can play off ball ...as you stated he’s already proved it in the olympics

the problem is that in the nba he wants to be the man instead of the team player he showed he can be in the Olympics on whatever team he’s on. This year is first time in his career that he’s playing with someone on his team with a bigger name (maybe besides iverson) so he don’t get the ball in his hands as much and he’s honestly probably not expecting the ball in his hands as much in OKC.

Unfortunately though for Melo time has passed and he’s well out of his prime....he will go to the HOF cause of his stats and not so much because memorable playoff moments similar to T Mac

As a Melo Stan, I never thought Melo was much of a team player. He was best when he was in an IT role. He would have been perfect next to Horford. Melo was one hell of an offensive player.

[NBASupes]

Just now, AHF said:

No stat translates 100%.  You measure the degree of correlation and then combine that with your other data.  Williams was shot and had short arms.  Short armed guys rarely end up as impact shot blockers (a worry for Bagley).  Shelden's rebounding actually did translate pretty well as did his steals.  He averaged over 10 rebounds and 1 steal per 36 playing mostly center.

Waste of a lottery pick given his obvious offensive and physical limitations.

That's not true. Shelden had long arms. That's how he got blocks at Duke. His wingspan was 7ft 4.25

[AHF]

43 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I'll say this for him. For whatever reason his games translates to international ball, because he plays great with the National teams at the Olympics. He is probably the best Olympic player ever. 

Definitely not best ever but he fits very well in that international format playing as his team's #3 guy on the floor.  That would have been his ideal role in the NBA playing as a #2 option and being more selective on his shots while commuting more to D and rebounding.

[TheFuzz]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

No stat translates 100%.  You measure the degree of correlation and then combine that with your other data.  

This is important. I think it's important to recognize that any individual stat is incredibly helpful but also flawed. Context is everything.

It's also important to recognize that stats measure things that happen on the court, but first something has to actually happen on the court. I don't know if that makes sense. I guess I mean advanced stats can be illuminating, but it they're based on the actual game of basketball so I do believe the eye test is important.

[AHF]

18 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

That's not true. Shelden had long arms. That's how he got blocks at Duke. His wingspan was 7ft 4.25

Nope.  Read again.  His wingspan was 74.25 inches [edit:  WRONG 7'4.25"]and his standing reach was 8'8".  Short arms and a broad chest.  Tyrus Thomas was a 1/2 inch shorter with a wingspan over an inch shorter but with a standing reach 4 inches higher because he actually had long arms.  Think about that.  Sheldon's chest was really wide but his arms were almost 5 inches shorter than Thomas.

You should know standing reach is way more important than wingspan.  Paul Millsap had a higher standing reach than Shelden despite again being a full inch shorter.  Rudy Gay was shorter than Shelden but had a standing reach over 3 inches higher.  Because, again, Shelden had short arms and a broad chest.

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Nope.  Read again.  His wingspan was 74.25 inches and his standing reach was 8'8".  Short arms and a broad chest.  Tyrus Thomas was a 1/2 inch shorter with a wingspan over an inch shorter but with a standing reach 4 inches higher because he actually had long arms.  Think about that.  Sheldon's chest was really wide but his arms were almost 5 inches shorter than Thomas.

You should know standing reach is way more important than wingspan.  Paul Millsap had a higher standing reach than Shelden despite again being a full inch shorter.

Shelden also had an unusually long neck, which made him look longer than he actually was.

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

Nope.  Read again.  His wingspan was 74.25 inches and his standing reach was 8'8".  Short arms and a broad chest.  Tyrus Thomas was a 1/2 inch shorter with a wingspan over an inch shorter but with a standing reach 4 inches higher because he actually had long arms.  Think about that.  Sheldon's chest was really wide but his arms were over 4 inches shorter than Thomas.

Overview:Undersized for either post spot, but blessed with a 7-4.25 wingspan and excellent physical strength, especially in his upper body. -

Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Shelden-Williams-18/ ©DraftExpress

That's a great wingspan for a PF. I always question standing reach as guys be cheating it to get a more favorable measure for standing and one step vertical.

Considering scouts was questioning athleticism, he needed to show well in that area.

Edited April 3, 2018 by NBASupes

[AHF]

Sorry - the wingspan numbers appear wrong on the mobile setting it is 7'4.25" inches but the point is unchanged.  He had really short arms as shown in his pitiful standing reach.   When he went up to block a shot small forwards reached higher than him.

Why would you ever question his sad standing reach?  We saw it in action and there is no way to cheat an extra 4-5 inches of arm length on that.  Shelden's reach sucked.

[NBASupes]

Shelden had clearly long arms 

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/6896205651482008/?%24ios_deeplink_path=pinterest%3A%2F%2Fpin%2F6896205651482008&%24android_deeplink_path=pinterest%3A%2F%2Fpin%2F6896205651482008&amp_client_id=cndTlocXXhr55YWB7ZO5sQYv-gqZVCBO3RCIbX5-WWIcFc3jk083TiE7GFldQr-b&utm_source=168&utm_medium=2160&current_page_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pinterest.com%2Famp%2Fschelly25125%2Fduke-basketball-shelden-williams%2F&install_id=0cb596a24f434c3cab5837c14de314e7&%24fallback_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pinterest.com%2Fpin%2F6896205651482008%2F&_branch_match_id=509551351934340471

[NBASupes]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

Sorry - the wingspan numbers appear wrong on the mobile setting it is 7'4.25" inches but the point is unchanged.  He had really short arms as shown in his pitiful standing reach.   When he went up to block a shot small forwards reached higher than him.

Why would you ever question his sad standing reach?  We saw it in action and there is no way to cheat an extra 4-5 inches of arm length on that.  Shelden's reach sucked.

His standing reach is likely 8'11 or 9'.

He short armed it to get a better spot for the vertical leap. This was the time period a lot of guys were doing this, especially the players with questionable athleticism. It worked too. The Hawks took him at 5.

 

Because he has very long arms. No way his standing reach is less than Milsap. I've seen both in person. No comparison. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by NBASupes

[AHF]

Nope.  He absolutely did not.  We had plenty of threads on this subject on here when he played here.

Brandon Ingram can reach over 5 inches higher lol.  It is why his blocks went from killing smaller college players to nothing in the NBA.

And his vertical was extremely pedestrian so if he cheated then that failed too.  The Hawks took him at 5 because of his production and his 6'8" size not his physical tools.  Not at all.

[AHF]

18 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Shelden had clearly long arms 

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/6896205651482008/?%24ios_deeplink_path=pinterest%3A%2F%2Fpin%2F6896205651482008&%24android_deeplink_path=pinterest%3A%2F%2Fpin%2F6896205651482008&amp_client_id=cndTlocXXhr55YWB7ZO5sQYv-gqZVCBO3RCIbX5-WWIcFc3jk083TiE7GFldQr-b&utm_source=168&utm_medium=2160&current_page_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pinterest.com%2Famp%2Fschelly25125%2Fduke-basketball-shelden-williams%2F&install_id=0cb596a24f434c3cab5837c14de314e7&%24fallback_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pinterest.com%2Fpin%2F6896205651482008%2F&_branch_match_id=509551351934340471

I stand corrected amazingly long arms and super high standing reach: