Let's be real, if we get DeAndre Ayton and trade up to get one of the Bridges, we are making the playoffs next year

[NBASupes]

Simply put. I clearly think bringing back Ersan and trade for Danilo would also help as well as Bud doing what he's doing now and playing through the SF instead of the PG as well. I am sold that either of the Bridges can be useful wings in our system and soon surpass Bazemore on the depth chart. I prefer Mikal especially in our system but I think Miles is better in general. I really think we suit Ayton well especially if we bring back Ersan. We have floor spacing. We have a creator in Prince. We have iso play in Dennis. Baze has found his niche in his role finally this deep into his career. I really think getting Danilo is crucial especially for the style change we can play in Atlanta. He should be extremely cheap as he's a terrible contract but Plumlee is the perfect piece for him in a deal. I could see Ayton overly successful. 

 

Now defensively, we could have issues but the bench depth is insane at every position but PG if this happens. That can be solved easily if we take someone like Bayless from Philly who is also a terrible contract but perfect for the ball the ball shooter who can be a decent backup role if we can move up in the draft to land Bridges. Clearly, we need Minny to make the playoffs. It's critical. There 18-19 range pick is good enough to move up in this draft. Without it, we can really move up at all. Cleveland 19' pick has value but not that much value. I really feel like Ayton, Prince and one of the Bridges could be transcendent and completely speed of the rebuild with the personnel grouping we have. Also, Ersan must return. We must have him as a spacing 4. 

[KB21]

[DBac]

Errr no.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I knew you would show up. I broke down all of our analytics. One of the biggest gaps from this team this year to last year's squad is the bench. We went from one of the top 3 benches in the NBA to one of the worst. We also struggle with inside scoring and off% and def% rebounding. This is an area Ayton can do well in as well as he has the range so he's not a nuisance like Dwight was. He passes well out of the double team and both Bazemore and Prince are good spot up shooters. 

Now block shots is an issue but Ayton has been listed as one of the better paint protectors in this class. He's not a shot blocker but he forces tough shots similar to a young Brook Lopez. He also is much better defending in space than Dedmon with ten folds the offensive value. 

This team could win a lot of games. The Bridges on all of my charts have plus potential on the Hawks, especially if they are playing with a creator which Prince is developing into and Danilo already is. 

3 minutes ago, DBac said:

Errr no.

Explain why not? 

[KB21]

Yeah.  This team is going to win a lot of games by playing rookies who will be below average players as rookies a lot of minutes.

The problem with this team isn't the bench.  The problem is that players who should be coming off its bench are starting.  Neither John Collins nor Taurean Prince should be starting right now, but they have to because of the gutted roster.

 

[NBASupes]

7 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Yeah.  This team is going to win a lot of games by playing rookies who will be below average players as rookies a lot of minutes.

The problem with this team isn't the bench.  The problem is that players who should be coming off its bench are starting.  Neither John Collins nor Taurean Prince should be starting right now, but they have to because of the gutted roster.

 

Neither Mikal or Miles charts as below average on the eye test or the metrics. It's fair to say these two have the best chance of doing the Donovan Mitchell path than even your boy Doncic by ALL of my charts. 

Ayton is one I feel must come into a great system and role without too much responsibility. As we stand, he with Collins is far too much to bite off for either player next to each other. Ersan knows how to play. He knows how to play off of the ball. He knows how to space and he can defend his position. He struggles in space at times and it hurt when teams abused him and Dennis on screens, PnP, and PnRs. That said, Ayton is a much better athlete than Dedmon and covers ground better even if he is not the same threat to block shots as Dwayne is. Ayton has as much upside in year 1 as anyone in this class. 

The bench is a major problem. If you look at all of our charts from last year, the bench is what was winning us games last year. This year, the bench is pathetic. We got Collins who's a good rookie but average bench player and below average starter as our best bench piece. The PG play is terrible. The SF depth is horrendous. The PF depth is weak. The SG severely dropped from THJr to freaking Bellineli who was a net negative for us. We had major losses on the bench from last year. 

Prince clearly should be starting and should be exclusively featured as well. His ascension from ASB is amazing but Bud took the ball out of Dennis hands and plays through Prince and it made us a lot better even with a much personnel grouping due to mass tanking. 

 

Edited April 7, 2018 by NBASupes

[DBac]

Just now, NBASupes said:

Explain why not? 

Because we'd have to double our win total. That's really hard to do man.

 

What's the rush to make it back to the playoffs anyway?

[NBASupes]

Just now, DBac said:

Because we'd have to double our win total. That's really hard to do man.

 

What's the rush to make it back to the playoffs anyway?

That's not hard. We spend half of the year tanking playing groupings that made no sense to keep our spot in the lottery for a chance at a top-tier pick. 

 

Simple. Weak class next year. We have the assets to cover both this class and next years in this draft alone. We also have the ability to add a net positive like Gallo for a net negative like Plumlee for our personnel grouping even if Gallo contract is ass in general. 

I think Mikal and Miles will be available by Philly's pick. The ability to get rid of Bayless contract, get an asset for next year and get a top 18-20 this year has great interest to Philly. 

[DBac]

@NBASupes

Quote

That's not hard. We spend half of the year tanking playing groupings that made no sense to keep our spot in the lottery for a chance at a top-tier pick. 

There are like 6-7 other teams saying the same thing. This is a bad team right now make no mistake about it.

Quote

Simple. Weak class next year. We have the assets to cover both this class and next years in this draft alone. We also have the ability to add a net positive like Gallo for a net negative like Plumlee for our personnel grouping even if Gallo contract is ass in general. 

I think Mikal and Miles will be available by Philly's pick. The ability to get rid of Bayless contract, get an asset for next year and get a top 18-20 this year has great interest to Philly. 

What asset for next year are you suggesting?

[KB21]

Posts like this are why I will constantly rail against this strategy.  You aren't going to gut your team's roster, add some 19 year old prospect who is 3 years away from being ready to actually play, and make the playoffs in a year's time.

[Dnice]

I don't ayton will fall to Atlanta.

[thecampster]

Since the title of the article is "lets be real", let me be real about this from a salary perspective.

Assuming no trades and assuming Dedmon exercises his paltry $6 million player option (and Muscala at $5 million). Also assuming a salary cap of $108 million. We sit at 12 players (10 on the roster) at $71 million.  However, we have 3 - 1st round picks next year at a guaranteed salary. That salary scale is (for 3/18/30) $5.74 mil + $2.07 million + $1.35 million or a total of  $80 million for 13 roster spots. Those 13 slots do not include Lee, Cavanaugh or Cleveland. That is $28 million in cap room no one of value will be ready to sign for.

So here is the "realness".  Deadmon is probably getting $13 million or more in the offseason and has no incentive to take that option. Muscala will take his option because although he's played well of late, he's a terrible defender and has minimal value outside of Bud's system. So you are probably looking at no true center again next year. As much as we could get the top pick, we could also end up as low as 6 right now and Ayton is a long shot.

This means we are probably using that $28-$34 million in cap space to overpay for a center. We also "might" be able to unload Baze but only to take back a butt-load of bad contracts. If in some crazy universe we swung a 3 for 1 contract eat deal for Baze and were able to use the remaining cap space to get a top 10 free agent then yes...yes we're a playoff team.  But once we went tank mode, the last thing we wanted was to sneak into the playoffs again.  Perfect world is next year Lebron leaves Cleveland but Cleveland somehow manages to win 33 games and come in with the 11th worst record in the league. We finish bottom 5 again and get 2 lottery picks.  And this is what real is.

53 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Simply put. I clearly think bringing back Ersan and trade for Danilo would also help as well as Bud doing what he's doing now and playing through the SF instead of the PG as well. I am sold that either of the Bridges can be useful wings in our system and soon surpass Bazemore on the depth chart. I prefer Mikal especially in our system but I think Miles is better in general. I really think we suit Ayton well especially if we bring back Ersan. We have floor spacing. We have a creator in Prince. We have iso play in Dennis. Baze has found his niche in his role finally this deep into his career. I really think getting Danilo is crucial especially for the style change we can play in Atlanta. He should be extremely cheap as he's a terrible contract but Plumlee is the perfect piece for him in a deal. I could see Ayton overly successful. 

 

Now defensively, we could have issues but the bench depth is insane at every position but PG if this happens. That can be solved easily if we take someone like Bayless from Philly who is also a terrible contract but perfect for the ball the ball shooter who can be a decent backup role if we can move up in the draft to land Bridges. Clearly, we need Minny to make the playoffs. It's critical. There 18-19 range pick is good enough to move up in this draft. Without it, we can really move up at all. Cleveland 19' pick has value but not that much value. I really feel like Ayton, Prince and one of the Bridges could be transcendent and completely speed of the rebuild with the personnel grouping we have. Also, Ersan must return. We must have him as a spacing 4. 

 

Edited April 7, 2018 by thecampster

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Since the title of the article is "lets be real", let me be real about this from a salary perspective.

Assuming no trades and assuming Dedmon exercises his paltry $6 million player option (and Muscala at $5 million). Also assuming a salary cap of $108 million. We sit at 12 players (10 on the roster) at $71 million.  However, we have 3 - 1st round picks next year at a guaranteed salary. That salary scale is (for 3/18/30) $5.74 mil + $2.07 million + $1.35 million or a total of  $80 million for 13 roster spots. Those 13 slots do not include Lee, Cavanaugh or Cleveland. That is $28 million in cap room no one of value will be ready to sign for.

So here is the "realness".  Deadmon is probably getting $13 million or more in the offseason and has no incentive to take that option. Muscala will take his option because although he's played well of late, he's a terrible defender and has minimal value outside of Bud's system. So you are probably looking at no true center again next year. As much as we could get the top pick, we could also end up as low as 6 right now and Ayton is a long shot.

This means we are probably using that $28-$34 million in cap space to overpay for a center. We also "might" be able to unload Baze but only to take back a butt-load of bad contracts. If in some crazy universe we swung a 3 for 1 contract eat deal for Baze and were able to use the remaining cap space to get a top 10 free agent then yes...yes we're a playoff team.  But once we went tank mode, the last thing we wanted was to sneak into the playoffs again.  Perfect world is next year Lebron leaves Cleveland but Cleveland somehow manages to win 33 games and come in with the 11th worst record in the league. We finish bottom 5 again and get 2 lottery picks.  And this is what real is.

 

I don't like the idea of bringing Dedmon back long term. I would rather go for someone like Favors if it came down to it if he opts out. 

[KB21]

1 hour ago, DBac said:

Because we'd have to double our win total. That's really hard to do man.

 

What's the rush to make it back to the playoffs anyway?

Because being in the playoffs is better than being in the lottery.

[DBac]

10 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Because being in the playoffs is better than being in the lottery.

At a certain point yeah but that's for the tank thread.

[bleachkit]

It's not that easy to trade up. That's why you don't see a lot of trades into the top 10.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, DBac said:

@NBASupes

There are like 6-7 other teams saying the same thing. This is a bad team right now make no mistake about it.

What asset for next year are you suggesting?

CLE pick 19', MIN 18' of course and taking Bayless contract. I would even be willing to sweeten it up making it ATL pick 19' (top 10 protected 19/top 5 protected 2020) instead of CLE 19' pick if need be. 

[NBASupes]

38 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

It's not that easy to trade up. That's why you don't see a lot of trades into the top 10.

Understood. Our offer has a lot of value. It's the norm of what we seen to move up into the 10-14 range in most good drafts.

[TheFuzz]

Only way we're making the playoffs next year is through a homerun free agency AND a homerun draft pick that's swinging out the gates, so that's very unlikely. I wouldn't stress about the playoffs, just accumulate as many assets and value contracts as we can and take baby steps. Next year we 99% miss the playoffs again, start THINKING about playoffs in the following summer, but while we're here we need to be patient, don't overpay anybody.

On that note, the squeezed free agent market is helpful there. If we're smart we can pick up some value contracts over the next two summers.

[KB21]

Being smart went out the window when they decided to tank.