The Tank Thread

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The big thing for Schlenk is this.  With these 3 draft picks, he needs to hit a home run with that top lottery pick . . and he needs to hit a couple of doubles with those lower 1st round picks.

This means that we need to draft the kind of guy that could start from Day 1 . . and add role players who can come off the bench from Day 1.  The quicker they can develop into star and solid players, the better.

Right now, NBADraft.net has our picks as:

 

#2 - Jaren Jackson Jr - Michigan St . . . . ( whose NBA comparison is, ironically . . . Shareef Abdur-Rahim . . . so I KNOW the fan base isn't going for that ) . . but that kid is good, and well coached.  If Collins is a center in Bud's system, Jaren will be the stretch 4 he'd salivate over.  Problem is . . he has Marvin Williams written all over him.  He's a highly touted Freshman who isn't the star of his team, but has the talent and athleticism that scouts drool over.

#24 - Landry Shamet - Wichita St . . . ( who is a good playmaking and 3 point shooting combo guard . . similar to Dorsey )

#30 - Mortiz Wagner - Michigan . . . ( who is a stretch 5 that can shoot the 3.  Think Pero Antic w/o the passing ability )

 

If those are our picks, the Hawks need ALL 3 of them to be able to contribute from Day 1, as well as Collins progressing, and Bembry and Dorsey stepping up their games to provide shooting and passing off the bench.

[AHF]

Memphis has hope for the future today only precisely because they are tanking shamelessly.  They had an injury that was not season ending for Conley and decided to embrace tanking and sit him out all year and sit out other players like Evans, etc too.  If they have a bright future after this season (and they could if they get things right), it will be because they did everything they could to intentionally lose for he vast majority of this season.

3 minutes ago, KB21 said:

That article is as true today as it was back then.  Good teams stay good.  Bad teams stay bad.

An article comes out arguing that the way to build a champion is to not lose big.  Within 3 years teams that were losing big when the article was released are winning championships. That is an epic fail.

I agree the article shows that teams near the bottom are more likely to keep losing but the actual data from the article is deliberately chopped to try to make a bigger point about championships that the article in no way actually provides support for.  

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

The big thing for Schlenk is this.  With these 3 draft picks, he needs to hit a home run with that top lottery pick . . and he needs to hit a couple of doubles with those lower 1st round picks.

This means that we need to draft the kind of guy that could start from Day 1 . . and add role players who can come off the bench from Day 1.  The quicker they can develop into star and solid players, the better.

Right now, NBADraft.net has our picks as:

 

#2 - Jaren Jackson Jr - Michigan St . . . . ( whose NBA comparison is, ironically . . . Shareef Abdur-Rahim . . . so I KNOW the fan base isn't going for that ) . . but that kid is good, and well coached.  If Collins is a center in Bud's system, Jaren will be the stretch 4 he'd salivate over.  Problem is . . he has Marvin Williams written all over him.  He's a highly touted Freshman who isn't the star of his team, but has the talent and athleticism that scouts drool over.

#24 - Landry Shamet - Wichita St . . . ( who is a good playmaking and 3 point shooting combo guard . . similar to Dorsey )

#30 - Mortiz Wagner - Michigan . . . ( who is a stretch 5 that can shoot the 3.  Think Pero Antic w/o the passing ability )

 

If those are our picks, the Hawks need ALL 3 of them to be able to contribute from Day 1, as well as Collins progressing, and Bembry and Dorsey stepping up their games to provide shooting and passing off the bench.

Totally agree that if we botch that #2 pick we will be in for a more extended period of losing.  Totally true.  My guess, however, is that Ayton and Doncic will be the only two guys seriously considered if that is where we end up drafting.

[terrell]

9 minutes ago, KB21 said:

That article is as true today as it was back then.  Good teams stay good.  Bad teams stay bad.

No team(including Memphis) is beating GS anytime soon.(perfect time to rebuild) Boston has a slight chance though  BECAUSE OF THOSE 3 LOTTERY PICKS PLAYING WELL..

[davis171]

That Wagner comment is why I value Jontay Porter with the Wolves pick should it convey. He would fit well with collins with the 3pt shooting. we have time to progress him defensively as well because he graduated high school early.

[davis171]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

And see, that's what people don't understand.  They're coming back next year with two borderline All-Star caliber players, plus a top 5 player in this year's draft.  IF they choose the right player that enhances the entire team, they could immediately jump to a playoff level squad in an instant.  And I think they have the bird rights to Tyreke Evans, who did play very well for them this season.

 

So this is the Grizzlies probable starting lineup next season

PG - Conley

G - Evans

F - Chandler Parsons . . ( or Doncic if they get a top 2 pick )

F - JaMychal Green  . . . ( or Bagley, if they get a top 2 pick )

C - Gasol

 

This is a setup similar to what happened in San Antonio.  Their "aging" stars could play, but they couldn't get past Utah.

 

PG - Avery Johnson ( 31 )

G - Vinny Del Negro ( 30 )

F - Sean Elliott ( 28 ) . . . injured 1/2 of the year

PF - Carl Hererra ( 30 )

C - David Robinson ( 31 ) . . . injured most of the year

 

6th man - Dominique Wilkins ( 37 )

 

Robinson and Elliott, the two stars of the team go down, and they were able to add the #1 pick, and future Hall of Famer ( Tim Duncan ) to the squad.

All of a sudden, you have the best frontline in the league, with two of the best defensive big men to play the game.  They still couldn't beat Utah in year 1.  But they ran through everyone in Year 2, and won a title.   LOL . . then they had to wait until Shaq and Kobe fell out, to win another one.

That's the type of luck you really need, when you talk about winning championships.

 

So tankers, what would be a better path to seeing the Hawks get back to prominence?   Bottoming the team out, and hoping we add a draft pick to this lineup next season?

 

PG - Schröder

G - Bazemore

F - Prince . . ( or Doncic, if we get a top 3 pick )

PF - Collins

C - Dedmon . . ( or Bagley/Ayton, if we get a top 3 pick )

 

6th man - Dorsey?

 

or this lineup . . .

 

PG - Schröder

G - Bazemore

F - Prince . . ( or Doncic, if we get a top 3 pick  )

PF - Millsap

C - Howard . . ( or Bagley/Ayton, if we get a top 3 pick )

 

6th man - Collins

 

It's OK to tell the truth on this.

1 Don't EVER compare the Spurs that lost David Robinson to what has happened to the Grizzlies again. The Spurs won 59 games the year before winning 20 they may have won it WITHOUT Duncan. 2 The hawks would not be picking top 3 with Sap and Howard (We may not land one without them). 3 A top 3 pick rarely produces to the level of a championship (Duncan and Magic the last time I'd guess) and unless Doncic, Ayton, etc prospect is on that level this makes no since. I have accepted we need to bottom out the roster because we messed up when Sap should have been traded thats when we had the opportunity to stay relevant without bottoming out.

[AHF]

There are now 4 teams ahead of us in the win column and we are tied with two others at 20 wins.  Our worst case based just on win totals is losing the coin flips for 7th place coming into the draft lottery and the unlikely scenario where we get jumped and dropped to the 10th overall pick.  Slightly less exciting than the #4 overall worst case we had very recently.

[AHF]

Every win right now makes both our most likely outcome and worst case scenarios dramatically worse.

[davis171]

24 minutes ago, AHF said:

There are now 4 teams ahead of us in the win column and we are tied with two others at 20 wins.  Our worst case based just on win totals is losing the coin flips for 7th place coming into the draft lottery and the unlikely scenario where we get jumped and dropped to the 10th overall pick.  Slightly less exciting than the #4 overall worst case we had very recently.

Mikal Bridges, Mo Bamba, or even Kevin Knox this year! can't wait for RJ Barrett 2019!

Edited March 5, 2018 by davis171

[Jody23]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

Every win right now makes both our most likely outcome and worst case scenarios dramatically worse.

Those meaningless wins earlier in the season are now coming back to bite us.

[AHF]

The only reason to do a deep rebuild like this is to try to compete for a ring.

The only statistically significant way to compete for a ring is to land an MVP talent.

You land an MVP talent either by drafting him, getting assets good enough that you can trade for him or getting assets good enough that he will want to join you in FA.

The primary goal in this rebuilding process then is to get assets to attract/obtain an MVP talent or to draft one.  

This goal is to rebuilding like obtaining advanced weapondry is to trying to build the world's best military.  Having well developed role players is like having well trained foot soldiers.  It is important but completely dwarfed by the other.  Having a nuke, tanks and an air force  means you are on a whole different level than a nation with guys running around on the ground with rifles.  Consequently, developing our infantry is good but not if it comes at the expense of getting the big guns just like developing a player into a quality starter is nice but it cannot be done at the expense of the tools needed to get that MVP talent.  Ideally you do both - but when push comes to shove you must prioritize maximizing your chances for the MVP level player.

[Lurker]

11 minutes ago, davis171 said:

Mikal Bridges, Mo Bamba, or even Kevin Knox this year! can't wait for RJ Barrett 2019!

There's been a Wildcat I've taken a liking to over each of the last few seasons and this time, it's Kevin Knox. He has PG13 like upside. Likely won't even be going in the top 10, but he's the kind of guy in which you could potentially be looking back and saying "he should have been drafted higher".

[davis171]

8 minutes ago, Lurker said:

There's been a Wildcat I've taken a liking to over each of the last few seasons and this time, it's Kevin Knox. He has PG13 like upside. Likely won't even be going in the top 10, but he's the kind of guy in which you could potentially be looking back and saying "he should have been drafted higher".

I like Knox with this draft not having a ton of wings but Idk if he is one or a stretch 4 reminds me more of Tobias Harris than PG13. That maybe a little ambitious in my eyes. PG13 is one hell of a perimeter defender. 

Edited March 5, 2018 by davis171

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, davis171 said:

I like Knox with this draft not having a ton of wings but Idk if he is one or a stretch 4 reminds me more of Tobias Harris than PG13. That maybe a little ambitious in my eyes.

PG13 wasn't PG13 for a while. He has the talent to be that.

If the Hawks actually do fall out of the top 4, which I'm still not sure of (I see 3 maybe 4 wins for the rest of the season), then if Marvin Bagley Jr is there I'm perfectly fine with him (or Jaren Jackson Jr). Later than that, guys like Carter, Miles Bridges, or maybe reaching for Knox (who won't be that early in most cases).

Then if Jontay Porter is there with one of the later picks (as long as he declares), I'd like to take him (especially if you go Bagley Jr, not as much if you go Carter), and two other guys that I'd consider are Landry Shamet and Mo Wagner.

I'm not as sure, with other players.

[davis171]

7 minutes ago, Lurker said:

PG13 wasn't PG13 for a while. He has the talent to be that.

If the Hawks actually do fall out of the top 4, which I'm still not sure of (I see 3 maybe 4 wins for the rest of the season), then if Marvin Bagley Jr is there I'm perfectly fine with him (or Jaren Jackson Jr). Later than that, guys like Carter, Miles Bridges, or maybe reaching for Knox (who won't be that early in most cases).

Then if Jontay Porter is there with one of the later picks (as long as he declares), I'd like to take him (especially if you go Bagley Jr, not as much if you go Carter), and two other guys that I'd consider are Landry Shamet and Mo Wagner.

I'm not as sure, with other players.

Brandon Mccoy maybe interesting as a project (I've said I love the idea of baby porter). I like Okogie on tech if he comes out (7'0 wingspan at 6'4) as well as someone like Duval who has kinda looked overwhelmed at times but still has some nice tools if he can figure it out. If we fall out of top 5 (Luka, Ayton, Porter, JJJ, Bamba) I would go Bagley, (Trae Young don't love him but got to take the flier at this point) then I'd be cool with Knox if we fall to 8 atm. 9 would be Wendell or Sexton I guess.

Edited March 5, 2018 by davis171

[Lurker]

1 hour ago, davis171 said:

Brandon Mccoy maybe interesting as a project (I've said I love the idea of baby porter). I like Okogie on tech if he comes out (7'0 wingspan at 6'4) as well as someone like Duval who has kinda looked overwhelmed at times but still has some nice tools if he can figure it out. If we fall out of top 5 (Luka, Ayton, Porter, JJJ, Bamba) I would go Bagley, (Trae Young don't love him but got to take the flier at this point) then I'd be cool with Knox if we fall to 8 atm. 9 would be Wendell or Sexton I guess.

I'd honestly be very happy if in the case the Hawks fall to #5, the draft goes Bagley Jr (I don't think he's worth the first few picks but he's worth a shot from 5-7)/Jontay Porter/Landry Shamet in the first round. That'd be a freaking home run. Pair that with signing a couple of veterans and let's see how the next season goes. I don't see it as a playoff team, but perhaps an improvement over this year.

Edited March 5, 2018 by Lurker

[davis171]

9 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I'd honestly be very happy if in the case the Hawks fall to #5, the draft goes Bagley Jr (I don't think he's worth the first few picks but he's worth a shot from 5-7)/Jontay Porter/Landry Shamet in the first round. That'd be a freaking home run. Pair that with signing a couple of veterans and let's see how the next season goes. I don't see it as a playoff team, but perhaps an improvement over this year.

Lol I think the plan is be relatively bad again next year.

[Lurker]

40 minutes ago, davis171 said:

Lol I think the plan is be relatively bad again next year.

Maybe I should've clarified "maybe see improvement, but likely still in the 25-28 win range" (which I do know that people don't want, lol).

Ultimate plan should be to hit on 2 of the 3 picks, mix in a couple veterans as mentors if possible (not key guys, though), and see how that goes. It's not impossible, so I don't want to see that ****.

I'd try to work to get back to the playoffs after 4 seasons at most, and preferably 3.

[hazer]

Hawks can’t even lose right. Get ready for Bamba, Hawks fans...

[davis171]

Just now, hazer said:

Hawks can’t even lose right. Get ready for Bamba, Hawks fans...

I think Bamba goes top 5 (I think he would best fit in Chicago). Regardless he will be a solid NBA big but definitely not someone I'm excited about on the level of Ayton or Doncic.