The Tank Thread

[AHF]

IMO, we are in the summer before year 2 of the rebuild.  I view the teardown as part of the rebuilding strategy that Schlenk opted for.

[KB21]

25 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Not really.  In terms of winning a title, we're on the same island ... which is nowhere near winning a title.  At least now we have a chance at getting elite talent that we'll need.

And don't yell at me, I'm not as 'pro-tank' as most.  I just grew weary of watching us bump our heads on the glass ceiling.

We were basically that bumblebee trapped in a car but steadily flying headfirst into the inside of the windshield.  Admirable effort but the reality is that bumblebee's gonna end up dead and dried out at the base of the glass.

The Hawks didn't bump their heads on a glass ceiling.  Much like the Hawks of the early 90s who had to contend with Jordan, that Hawks team had to contend with LeBron James.  If your answer to beating LeBron is tanking out and hoping to find a player that can beat him, then you are already behind the 8 ball.  The fact is, if LeBron James had gone to LA back in 2014 instead of Cleveland, the Hawks would have played the Warriors for the title in 2015. 

You don't make brash roster decisions like this just because you can't get by one of the all time greats.  You keep pushing forward and being competitive. 

Had the Hawks kept things together instead of bottoming out, the Hawks would be up there with Boston and Toronto at the top of the East now that LeBron is out West.

[kg01]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

The Hawks didn't bump their heads on a glass ceiling.  Much like the Hawks of the early 90s who had to contend with Jordan, that Hawks team had to contend with LeBron James.  If your answer to beating LeBron is tanking out and hoping to find a player that can beat him, then you are already behind the 8 ball.  The fact is, if LeBron James had gone to LA back in 2014 instead of Cleveland, the Hawks would have played the Warriors for the title in 2015. 

You don't make brash roster decisions like this just because you can't get by one of the all time greats.  You keep pushing forward and being competitive. 

Had the Hawks kept things together instead of bottoming out, the Hawks would be up there with Boston and Toronto at the top of the East now that LeBron is out West.

You're ignoring the salary cap and what keeping these teams would've cost.  As such, I just can't go here with you KBT.  What you're saying is as useful as me saying, "Welp, we should've just signed Lebron ourselves then we would've been in the Finals."  It was possible ... but not really.

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

You're ignoring the salary cap and what keeping these teams would've cost.  As such, I just can't go here with you KBT.  What you're saying is as useful as me saying, "Welp, we should've just signed Lebron ourselves then we would've been in the Finals."  It was possible ... but not really.

So instead, we are taking the Sacramento Kings pathway to a championship.

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

So instead, we are taking the Sacramento Kings pathway to a championship.

Trust me, I hate tanking.  I recognize totally that teams like SAC, PHX, ORL (and more) have all taken this path to no avail.  It's just .... I'm tired of being 'just good enough'.

Nothing on the horizon was going to change that, if we'd stayed the course.  Actually, let me correct that.  The only thing that was going to change was that the same team was gonna cost tremendously more and would simply be getting older-not better.  Would we be up there with BOS, TOR, etc. at this point?  Maybe but we had an equal chance at being put out in round 1 or 2 ... just more expensively.  #EZPassLane

We had to do something.  Maybe we're on the right path, maybe not but .... shiiiiiiii, it's better than staying the course we were on.

[Flight]

Given that initial 5-10 year timetable I think we have a solid shot at getting LeBron James Jr. my boys. Who else is excited?! haha

[KB21]

31 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Trust me, I hate tanking.  I recognize totally that teams like SAC, PHX, ORL (and more) have all taken this path to no avail.  It's just .... I'm tired of being 'just good enough'.

Nothing on the horizon was going to change that, if we'd stayed the course.  Actually, let me correct that.  The only thing that was going to change was that the same team was gonna cost tremendously more and would simply be getting older-not better.  Would we be up there with BOS, TOR, etc. at this point?  Maybe but we had an equal chance at being put out in round 1 or 2 ... just more expensively.  #EZPassLane

We had to do something.  Maybe we're on the right path, maybe not but .... shiiiiiiii, it's better than staying the course we were on.

All I see here is that not competing is better than competing.  We couldn't beat LeBron, so it's better that we just not be competitive at all.

[kg01]

5 minutes ago, KB21 said:

All I see here is that not competing is better than competing.  We couldn't beat LeBron, so it's better that we just not be competitive at all.

Cute.  All I see from you is, "Meh, I'm aiight with not winnin' it all.  Now who wants a max?!"

KBT after another 48-win, 2nd round playoff loss season ...

[nathan2331]

KB, if we kept the '14 team together they'd be falling apart right now. Millsap has regressed, Korver has regressed. Horford has taken a step back. We wouldn't be contending for anything now. You are right about tanking that it makes it difficult to actually develop the talent you are losing games for because the objective no longer is to win games. But after having one of the best playoff streaks in basketball it became apparent that none of our success mattered.

 

I don't believe in Schlenk, but he was right to hit the reset button. We had nobody free agents wanted to play with. Within two drafts, I can at least give Schlenk credit for drafting two guys who bring excitement. Hopefully that will translate to winning basketball later in the future.

[KB21]

13 minutes ago, nathan2331 said:

KB, if we kept the '14 team together they'd be falling apart right now. Millsap has regressed, Korver has regressed. Horford has taken a step back. We wouldn't be contending for anything now. You are right about tanking that it makes it difficult to actually develop the talent you are losing games for because the objective no longer is to win games. But after having one of the best playoff streaks in basketball it became apparent that none of our success mattered.

 

I don't believe in Schlenk, but he was right to hit the reset button. We had nobody free agents wanted to play with. Within two drafts, I can at least give Schlenk credit for drafting two guys who bring excitement. Hopefully that will translate to winning basketball later in the future.

Resetting is fine as long as you try to be competitive during the reset.  What isn't right is making losing the objective.  That's what Travis has done, and that's what will ultimately cost him his job, regardless of how well he evaluates talent.  Travis hasn't even made an attempt to be competitive. 

[JayBirdHawk]

Aaaah, yes another thread turned into 'To tank or not to tank'

[AHF]

The whole thing is really a question about tanking so it is likely to get the merge in the near term.

[kg01]

57 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Resetting is fine as long as you try to be competitive during the reset.  What isn't right is making losing the objective.  That's what Travis has done, and that's what will ultimately cost him his job, regardless of how well he evaluates talent.  Travis hasn't even made an attempt to be competitive. 

Legit discussion here (finally).  I do hope we actually try to win despite rebuilding.  

55 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Aaaah, yes another thread turned into 'To tank or not to tank'

#AgendaSquawk

[Spud2nique]

Wait..what thread is this? Why is stuff intertwined? 

 

At at this point have one thread titled..” I got sumthing ta say” and have everyone go crazy!

[BrazilianHawk]

4 hours ago, Vol4ever said:

We haven't had a GM since Ted Turner was the owner.  

Well we had Danny Ferry and experienced some success for a brief periodof time. Then Gearon Jr. happened.

[REHawksFan]

I'm trying to reconcile the following facts:

1. Atlanta is neither a destination city nor a prestige franchise so attracting Elite FA has historically been a non-starter;
2. Trading for Elite NBA players requires giving up comparable assets (which the Hawks have never had) OR taking on marginally "Elite" players (Joe Johnson ,for instance) that aren't leading them to a title OR taking on guys with red flags (see Cousins, Boogie); 
3. Teams that draft in the lottery seem to make a habit of doing so (evidence suggests true) implying that teams cannot get out of the losing habit once they start;
4. In the last 20 years, every NBA champion has been led to said title by a minimum of 2 lottery picks; usually including one top 5 pick (or more);

The above seems to point to one conclusion:  Winning team / franchises will continue to win while losing franchises will continue to lose.   For IF it holds that you must have elite talent to win titles (history suggests this is true) and IF it holds that Atlanta cannot sign Elite FA or trade for an Elite player (again, history suggests true), THEN the only logical conclusion is that ATL must DRAFT elite talent.  BUT, IF it also holds that tanking breeds losing which cannot be easily corrected, then how exactly does that lead to a title?  

I think the answer is that point 3 is not entirely accurate.  Yes, a lot of teams have tried to tank and have been unsuccessful.  Or at least they haven't proven it a good strategy.  But that's where the other front office stuff comes in.  Do you have a vision / plan for the team? What is its identity?  Are you signing lesser role players that fit that identity?  Do you have a coach that pushes the identity and players that buy in?  All of that stuff matters and can be the difference between getting out of the lottery revolving door and into the fast lane for a title (see Warriors, Golden State).  

No, it's not easy.  No, the Hawks don't have the built in advantage of having a Top 5 player of all time grow up in our back yard or having a history of titles to draw on (LA / Bos / Chi).  No, ATL isn't NY or LA or South Beach with all the glam and no state tax.  And yes, imo, it does mean that the only real viable option for a team like the Hawks is to go the lottery route and hope they have the front office brains to make the right decisions to go along with the drafting.  It takes time and it takes doing it in a smart way.  We'll see if Schlenk has what it takes.   

[Buzzard]

5 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I'm trying to reconcile the following facts:

1. Atlanta is neither a destination city nor a prestige franchise so attracting Elite FA has historically been a non-starter;
2. Trading for Elite NBA players requires giving up comparable assets (which the Hawks have never had) OR taking on marginally "Elite" players (Joe Johnson ,for instance) that aren't leading them to a title OR taking on guys with red flags (see Cousins, Boogie); 
3. Teams that draft in the lottery seem to make a habit of doing so (evidence suggests true) implying that teams cannot get out of the losing habit once they start;
4. In the last 20 years, every NBA champion has been led to said title by a minimum of 2 lottery picks; usually including one top 5 pick (or more);

The above seems to point to one conclusion:  Winning team / franchises will continue to win while losing franchises will continue to lose.   For IF it holds that you must have elite talent to win titles (history suggests this is true) and IF it holds that Atlanta cannot sign Elite FA or trade for an Elite player (again, history suggests true), THEN the only logical conclusion is that ATL must DRAFT elite talent.  BUT, IF it also holds that tanking breeds losing which cannot be easily corrected, then how exactly does that lead to a title?  

I think the answer is that point 3 is not entirely accurate.  Yes, a lot of teams have tried to tank and have been unsuccessful.  Or at least they haven't proven it a good strategy.  But that's where the other front office stuff comes in.  Do you have a vision / plan for the team? What is its identity?  Are you signing lesser role players that fit that identity?  Do you have a coach that pushes the identity and players that buy in?  All of that stuff matters and can be the difference between getting out of the lottery revolving door and into the fast lane for a title (see Warriors, Golden State).  

No, it's not easy.  No, the Hawks don't have the built in advantage of having a Top 5 player of all time grow up in our back yard or having a history of titles to draw on (LA / Bos / Chi).  No, ATL isn't NY or LA or South Beach with all the glam and no state tax.  And yes, imo, it does mean that the only real viable option for a team like the Hawks is to go the lottery route and hope they have the front office brains to make the right decisions to go along with the drafting.  It takes time and it takes doing it in a smart way.  We'll see if Schlenk has what it takes.   

The bold text is it in a nutshell.

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I'm trying to reconcile the following facts:

1. Atlanta is neither a destination city nor a prestige franchise so attracting Elite FA has historically been a non-starter;
2. Trading for Elite NBA players requires giving up comparable assets (which the Hawks have never had) OR taking on marginally "Elite" players (Joe Johnson ,for instance) that aren't leading them to a title OR taking on guys with red flags (see Cousins, Boogie); 
3. Teams that draft in the lottery seem to make a habit of doing so (evidence suggests true) implying that teams cannot get out of the losing habit once they start;
4. In the last 20 years, every NBA champion has been led to said title by a minimum of 2 lottery picks; usually including one top 5 pick (or more);

The above seems to point to one conclusion:  Winning team / franchises will continue to win while losing franchises will continue to lose.   For IF it holds that you must have elite talent to win titles (history suggests this is true) and IF it holds that Atlanta cannot sign Elite FA or trade for an Elite player (again, history suggests true), THEN the only logical conclusion is that ATL must DRAFT elite talent.  BUT, IF it also holds that tanking breeds losing which cannot be easily corrected, then how exactly does that lead to a title?  

I think the answer is that point 3 is not entirely accurate.  Yes, a lot of teams have tried to tank and have been unsuccessful.  Or at least they haven't proven it a good strategy.  But that's where the other front office stuff comes in.  Do you have a vision / plan for the team? What is its identity?  Are you signing lesser role players that fit that identity?  Do you have a coach that pushes the identity and players that buy in?  All of that stuff matters and can be the difference between getting out of the lottery revolving door and into the fast lane for a title (see Warriors, Golden State).  

No, it's not easy.  No, the Hawks don't have the built in advantage of having a Top 5 player of all time grow up in our back yard or having a history of titles to draw on (LA / Bos / Chi).  No, ATL isn't NY or LA or South Beach with all the glam and no state tax.  And yes, imo, it does mean that the only real viable option for a team like the Hawks is to go the lottery route and hope they have the front office brains to make the right decisions to go along with the drafting.  It takes time and it takes doing it in a smart way.  We'll see if Schlenk has what it takes.   

The problem with this statement is that point 3 IS accurate, and you can't blame every team who stays in the lottery for a long period of time on just poor decision making or the lack of a vision/plan.  Did Philadelphia's vision/plan include them missing on Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, and Markelle Fultz in the draft?  Now, some may try to use the fact that they were able to get Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as a reason for success, but the fact is, they have spent 5 years drafting in the high lottery.  Sacramento is currently on a 12 year streak.  Phoenix is currently on an 8 year streak.  The LA Lakers, who didn't draft this year, is currently on a 5 year streak of not making the playoffs.  The Orlando Magic are currently on a 5-6 year streak of not making the playoffs.  

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I'm trying to reconcile the following facts:

1. Atlanta is neither a destination city nor a prestige franchise so attracting Elite FA has historically been a non-starter;
2. Trading for Elite NBA players requires giving up comparable assets (which the Hawks have never had) OR taking on marginally "Elite" players (Joe Johnson ,for instance) that aren't leading them to a title OR taking on guys with red flags (see Cousins, Boogie); 
3. Teams that draft in the lottery seem to make a habit of doing so (evidence suggests true) implying that teams cannot get out of the losing habit once they start;
4. In the last 20 years, every NBA champion has been led to said title by a minimum of 2 lottery picks; usually including one top 5 pick (or more);

 

You can get elite NBA players without elite talent going back if you have a good stack of lottery picks and/or young players to send back.  Houston got Harden with 2 lottery picks; Boston got KG and Allen with a mix of picks and young players; etc.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

The problem with this statement is that point 3 IS accurate, and you can't blame every team who stays in the lottery for a long period of time on just poor decision making or the lack of a vision/plan.  Did Philadelphia's vision/plan include them missing on Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, and Markelle Fultz in the draft?  Now, some may try to use the fact that they were able to get Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as a reason for success, but the fact is, they have spent 5 years drafting in the high lottery.  Sacramento is currently on a 12 year streak.  Phoenix is currently on an 8 year streak.  The LA Lakers, who didn't draft this year, is currently on a 5 year streak of not making the playoffs.  The Orlando Magic are currently on a 5-6 year streak of not making the playoffs.  

They did their best to make the playoffs and missed getting them a late lottery pick prior to tanking.

Year 1-4 of tanking they did draft in the high lottery.  Year 5 they were the #3 seed in the East and only drafted in the lottery due to being owed a pick and even then did not draft in the high lottery.