The Tank Thread

[KB21]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Wendell Carter is not a lottery talent

Um, yes.  He is.  Clearly.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Wendell Carter is not a lottery talent

I think he is a no brainer lottery talent in this draft.  Just a question of where in the lottery he should be taken.

[Peoriabird]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

I fully expect Collins to continue to develop.  Fully expect his positioning and strength to improve.  Expect his range on shots will improve.  But at the end of the day neither Collins nor Bagley profiles as having good rim protection tools.  It is a liability they both share from a tools perspective.  I see a much clearer path to Collins and Bagley working together successfully on offense than I do on D.

Kevin Love isn't a rim protector...Zaza or whoever GS marches out there aren't rim protectors..Valanciunas isn't a great Rim protector...Horford isn't a great rim protector.  But they use their other attributes to give themselves an advantage over their opponents

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think he is a no brainer lottery talent in this draft.  Just a question of where in the lottery he should be taken.

Why...Nothing special about Carter

[KB21]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Kevin Love isn't a rim protector...Zaza or whoever GS marches out there aren't rim protectors..Valanciunas isn't a great Rim protector...Horford isn't a great rim protector.  But they use their other attributes to give themselves an advantage over their opponents

Why...Nothing special about Carter

Love isn't a rim protector, but Thompson is.

Zaza isn't a rim protector, but Green is.

Valanciunas isn't a rim protector, but Ibaka is.

While Al Horford isn't a great rim protector, he's not a liability as a rim protector and he's a great defender who can guard multiple positions.  

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Why...Nothing special about Carter

He was similar in terms of productive to Bagley on offense while showing more ability to space the floor (seen more on midrange shots although his 41.3% from 3pt range wasn't bad, just low volume) and especially defend.  With all the good on offense, Carter was the impact defender for that team. 

Their metrics and rates are very similar:

Carter (age 18)

PER 28.2, 13.5 BPM, WS/48 .240, 20.2 pp40, TS% .628%, 13.5 rb/40, 3.0 a/40, 3.1 bp40

Bagley (age 19)

PER 30.6, 10.7 BPM, WS/48 .249, 24.9 pp40, TS% .643%, 13.1 rb/40, 1.8 a/40, 1.0 bp40

 

 

 

(Note:  Age gap is over stated based on timing.  Carter is only a little younger.  Just put that there because Bagley has gotten so much hype for supposedly being so young.)

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

Love isn't a rim protector, but Thompson is.

Zaza isn't a rim protector, but Green is.

Valanciunas isn't a rim protector, but Ibaka is.

While Al Horford isn't a great rim protector, he's not a liability as a rim protector and he's a great defender who can guard multiple positions.  

Green didn't average over 1bpg until his 3rd season...Collins already averages over a bpg

Thompson doesn't start

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Love isn't a rim protector, but Thompson is.

Zaza isn't a rim protector, but Green is.

Valanciunas isn't a rim protector, but Ibaka is.

While Al Horford isn't a great rim protector, he's not a liability as a rim protector and he's a great defender who can guard multiple positions.  

Agreed. I don't mind Collins not being a rim protector or Bagley but it is the combination of both that gives me pause.  Pairing Love and Zaza, for example, would be a disaster defensively but both are able to function reasonably well when paired with good defenders like Thompson or LeBron or Green.

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

He was similar in terms of productive to Bagley on offense while showing more ability to space the floor (seen more on midrange shots although his 41.3% from 3pt range wasn't bad, just low volume) and especially defend.  With all the good on offense, Carter was the impact defender for that team. 

Their metrics and rates are very similar:

Carter (age 18)

PER 28.2, 13.5 BPM, WS/48 .240, 20.2 pp40, TS% .628%, 13.5 rb/40, 3.0 a/40, 3.1 bp40

Bagley (age 19)

PER 30.6, 10.7 BPM, WS/48 .249, 24.9 pp40, TS% .643%, 13.1 rb/40, 1.8 a/40, 1.0 bp40

 

 

 

(Note:  Age gap is over stated based on timing.  Carter is only a little younger.  Just put that there because Bagley has gotten so much hype for supposedly being so young.)

Carter isn't the focal point of the offense nor is he the focal point of the opposing team's defense Bagley is...Carter was having major trouble finishing against Kansas and looked pretty ordinary in that game

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Green didn't average over 1bpg until his 3rd season...Collins already averages over a bpg

Thompson doesn't start

I am less concerned about blocked shots than about strong defenders.  Love only plays with James or Thompson on the floor because both are very good defenders.

Green is a DPOY candidate most years.

When Sap and Al were paired up, it worked most of the time because Al was a good post defender which would let Sap cover the other guy (until Al would get matched up against someone with a sufficient size advantage to abuse him).

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Carter isn't the focal point of the offense nor is he the focal point of the opposing team's defense Bagley is...Carter was having major trouble finishing against Kansas and looked pretty ordinary in that game

Bagley did play a more central role but Carter was the team's second biggest threat when he was on the floor.  If Carter was Bagley + shot blocking + more strength + much better defensive instincts he would be the #1 pick.  Instead, he is projected below Bagley by most people (including me). 

You asked why he should be considered among the top 14 picks in this draft.  It is because his numbers and total skill set are special enough that he is an absolute no brainer to go in the lottery, IMO.

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I am less concerned about blocked shots than about strong defenders.  Love only plays with James or Thompson on the floor because both are very good defenders.

Green is a DPOY candidate most years.

When Sap and Al were paired up, it worked most of the time because Al was a good post defender which would let Sap cover the other guy (until Al would get matched up against someone with a sufficient size advantage to abuse him).

I just think that you guys are judging these guys way too early in their careers and I am willing wait to see what they become before concluding that they are what they are...They have all of the tools to be great defenders so I'm ready to wait for them develop just like you are willing to wait for Doncic to develop a shot

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Bagley did play a more central role but Carter was the team's second biggest threat when he was on the floor.  If Carter was Bagley + shot blocking + more strength + much better defensive instincts he would be the #1 pick.  Instead, he is projected below Bagley by most people (including me). 

You asked why he should be considered among the top 14 picks in this draft.  It is because his numbers and total skill set are special enough that he is an absolute no brainer to go in the lottery, IMO.

I wouldn't pick him in the lottery...Will he be even more effective than Dedmon?

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I wouldn't pick him in the lottery...Will he be even more effective than Dedmon?

His numbers are some of the best in the last decade.  Not sure why you wouldn't.  Here is a post a did a month ago comparing freshmen PF/Cs from the last decade:

Rk	Player	Class	Season	School	PER	TS%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	WS/48
1	Karl-Anthony Towns	FR	2014-15	Kentucky	31.4	0.627	18.5	11.6	1.4	11.5	14.2	23.7	126.8	78.1	0.374
2	Anthony Davis	FR	2011-12	Kentucky	35.1	0.654	19	7.5	2.5	13.7	8.6	18.8	139	80.7	0.371
3	Zach Collins	FR	2016-17	Gonzaga	30.9	0.703	18.3	4.4	1.5	9.8	17.8	24.8	125.1	79.4	0.357
4	Mike Daum	FR	2015-16	South Dakota State	34.5	0.656	16.7	9.5	1.4	1.7	12.4	31.9	129	97.8	0.354
5	DeMarcus Cousins	FR	2009-10	Kentucky	34.2	0.579	22.5	9.2	2.4	7.5	13.6	30.5	118.5	83.9	0.349
6	Jared Sullinger	FR	2010-11	Ohio State	30.3	0.591	20.1	7.4	2	2	9.9	27	126	89.6	0.340
7	Cody Zeller	FR	2011-12	Indiana	31.3	0.665	14.9	9.5	2.9	4.3	12.4	24.3	132.1	96.3	0.318
8	DeAndre Ayton	FR	2017-18	Arizona	32.3	0.657	21.2	9.9	0.8	6.1	11.2	26.1	131.5	98.8	0.312
9	Marvin Bagley III	FR	2017-18	Duke	30.9	0.634	18.5	9.4	1.6	3.1	12.7	26.9	126.1	95.9	0.303
10	Jaren Jackson Jr.	FR	2017-18	Michigan State	27.4	0.654	14.7	9.4	1.7	14.5	17.4	23.8	121.2	86	0.295
11	Wendell Carter Jr.	FR	2017-18	Duke	29.1	0.638	18.7	13.3	1.5	7.9	15.7	22.6	127.2	92.8	0.294
12	Jameel Warney	FR	2012-13	Stony Brook	27.7	0.612	15.8	8.1	1.6	6.6	10.2	22	122.8	86.7	0.294
13	Anthony Bennett	FR	2012-13	Nevada-Las Vegas	28.3	0.609	17.1	8.8	1.5	4.6	12.3	27.5	117.6	89.6	0.288
14	Seth Tuttle	FR	2011-12	Northern Iowa	27.6	0.675	16.2	11.8	2.3	2.3	13.6	20.7	130.9	96.9	0.284
15	Lauri Markkanen	FR	2016-17	Arizona	25	0.635	14	5.6	0.8	1.8	8.1	22.4	134.1	100.4	0.282
16	Jahlil Okafor	FR	2014-15	Duke	30.7	0.641	16.6	9.4	1.5	4.5	15.6	27.6	119.9	95.4	0.281
17	Domantas Sabonis	FR	2014-15	Gonzaga	24.7	0.675	19.1	7.5	1.3	1.5	17.7	21.5	123.9	91.3	0.280
18	Cameron Krutwig	FR	2017-18	Loyola (IL)	25.1	0.632	16.8	14.8	1.3	3.6	13.8	22.3	124	93.1	0.279
19	D'Angelo Russell	FR	2014-15	Ohio State	26.6	0.573	9.8	30.1	2.8	1.1	14.8	30.2	115.7	94.5	0.275
20	Pascal Siakam	FR	2014-15	New Mexico State	26.1	0.614	15.7	10	1.7	5.9	15.3	21.2	122.7	92	0.270
21	Landry Shamet	FR	2016-17	Wichita State	20.2	0.629	5.8	22.2	1.6	0.9	10.7	18.8	132.1	95	0.270
22	TJ Leaf	FR	2016-17	UCLA	26.6	0.66	14.9	13.2	1.1	3.5	10.8	22	130.6	101.2	0.266
23	Devin Booker	FR	2014-15	Kentucky	19.4	0.6	5.4	10.9	1.3	0.3	10.4	22.8	123.1	92.2	0.265
24	James Thompson IV	FR	2015-16	Eastern Michigan	26.9	0.663	18	3.9	1.3	5.1	11.5	18.8	134.3	101.2	0.263
25	Ben McLemore	FR	2012-13	Kansas	23.2	0.633	9.4	12.6	1.8	2.2	14.2	23.2	121.4	93.7	0.262
26	Zhaire Smith	FR	2017-18	Texas Tech	23	0.63	9.8	11.5	2.3	4.4	11.3	18.4	129.7	95.1	0.260
27	Lonzo Ball	FR	2016-17	UCLA	24.7	0.673	9.3	31.4	2.8	2.1	18.6	18.1	131.3	100.7	0.258
28	Stanley Johnson	FR	2014-15	Arizona	22.5	0.551	14.1	11.6	3.2	1.6	14.7	26.6	111.1	87.6	0.253
29	Ivan Rabb	FR	2015-16	University of California	24.2	0.636	16.5	6.6	1.1	4.1	13.4	20	124.8	95.3	0.251
30	Mohamed Bamba	FR	2017-18	Texas	27.7	0.589	20	3.5	1.5	13	12.7	21.2	117.3	88.7	0.251
31	Ben Simmons	FR	2015-16	Louisiana State	29	0.6	18.2	27.4	3.1	2.5	17.4	26.4	117.2	98.4	0.250
32	Elias Harris	FR	2009-10	Gonzaga	24	0.609	13.7	7.9	1.8	1.6	13.3	24.2	118.7	95.5	0.250
33	Trae Young	FR	2017-18	Oklahoma	28.6	0.588	5.8	49	2.5	0.7	18.3	37.3	115.4	108.1	0.250
34	Melo Trimble	FR	2014-15	Maryland	22.8	0.628	6.8	21.2	2.3	0.2	16	25	120.7	99.1	0.250
35	C.J. McCollum	FR	2009-10	Lehigh	25.8	0.593	8.8	17.1	2.3	0.7	11	28.4	118.8	101.2	0.246
36	Temetrius Morant	FR	2017-18	Murray State	21.4	0.569	11.4	33.6	1.6	1	18.1	20.3	123.1	98.2	0.246
37	Jabari Parker	FR	2013-14	Duke	28.4	0.558	17.1	8.6	2.1	4	11.9	32.7	115	99.3	0.246
38	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	FR	2013-14	Arizona	20.3	0.544	13.1	11	1.8	4.3	12.1	19.9	117.4	89.6	0.245
39	Tyler Haws	FR	2009-10	Brigham Young	20.4	0.62	9.1	10.3	1.6	0.6	11.4	19.3	127.9	97.8	0.244
40	Hassan Whiteside	FR	2009-10	Marshall	29.1	0.548	18.3	2.2	1.2	18.8	13.6	25.8	107.9	85.8	0.243

[Peoriabird]

Who is Mike Daum?

[Diesel]

5 hours ago, JSmooooove said:

If losing in the short term gets you closer to championship contention in the long-term, it's worth it. 

 

I think this is where the disconnect lies.   Those teams that tank by cleaning house never get to championship contention.   Those teams that tank by cleaning house is a long term mess job.  It's fools gold and you can't bring up an example to prove your case.  But there are 100s that prove KBs case.  That's where the statement that you're doing the same thing over and over again and getting the same result... failure. 

The owners don't care... They will save money. 

The GM thinks he's right.

The fanbase is being fooled. 

[Peoriabird]

Jared Sullinger?  Just saying you can't go by numbers alone

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Who is Mike Daum?

A guy who destroyed low level competition.  I didn't scrub the sheet for small colleges.

He was POY for his conference the last two years so he is dominating (and his team won the conference with a 13-1 conference record) -- just at a lower level of competition.  Averaged 26 and 10 this season.

Nice college player.

[buckyboy2]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Who is Mike Daum?

lol

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Jared Sullinger?  Just saying you can't go by numbers alone

You can't go by numbers alone but are you telling me you aren't more intrigued by him than other guys projected to go in the lottery like Kevin Knox?  Carter stands out as a plus defender, elite passer and good scorer.  He has good size and a good pedigree.  I'm biting on him at some point in the lottery for sure.

[KB21]

11 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I just think that you guys are judging these guys way too early in their careers and I am willing wait to see what they become before concluding that they are what they are...They have all of the tools to be great defenders so I'm ready to wait for them develop just like you are willing to wait for Doncic to develop a shot

Again, give me examples of poor college defenders like Bagley and Ayton that became good defenders in the NBA.