The Tank Thread

[Diesel]

5 hours ago, Guard said:

The Sixers are going to be really scary with a better power forward and Fultz healthy. Their upside as a team is crazy high. 

Will they be in the championship equation before the talent start to leave??

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

How many championship MVPs were drafted by the team that won the championship??

Steph... and who else?

Westbrook - No championship. 

Durant - No Championship in OKC.

Lebron - Wasn't drafted by the Heat. 

Rose - No championship

Lebron - No Championship with those Cavs. 

Kobe - Actually drafted by the Hornets and didn't win a championship that year. 

Dirk - Yes.

Steve Nash - No Championship. 

KG - No championship. 

Duncan - yes.

Iverson - No championship.

 

So going back 17 years...  Only 3 guys won an MVP with the same team that drafted them and won a championship.

That's not a very good stat for the tanking argument.  Not to mention, championships by top 4 lottery picks = 1 in 17 years.

Stats show that you're better off trading for a MVP or Championship leader than tanking for one... that's why culture matters. 

 

You don't need that year's MVP.  You need someone that good.  I'm not talking about Bill Walton on the Celtics.  I'm talking Larry Bird on the Celtics.  The Celtics didn't win titles every year he won MVP but they won titles with him because he was that good.  The Bulls didn't win titles every year Jordan was MVP but he was that good.  Kobe was a one-time MVP but won a bunch of titles because he was the central figure behind his teams (looking at the latter championships).

The question then becomes how you acquire an MVP talent.  FA?  Lol.  Trade?  Not unless you have a bunch of lottery talent to work with.  Draft?  That is the most common route because teams have a huge advantage on keeping their best players over anyone else in the market even though that isn't a lock by any means ala the NFL.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

2009 - Drafted Steph. 

2011 - New Owners

2011 Draft Klay

2012 Drafted Barnes and Green

Here's the thing...  You say that they tanked for Barnes and that won the championship??    How could they have had a continuous tanking plan when ownership changed in between the years that they got most of their championship players??

Moreover,  I told you that they had a culture of a championship team...

 

That's a culture.  

The timing for your theory doesn't work.  I'm telling you they intentionally tore down and rebuilt.  You are saying the change in ownership means it can't have been a continuous process but why does that matter?

New owners came in and they went right to the lottery in their first year (when prior ownership had already set the direction and roster) and admit they pulled a blatant tank job that improved their draft position so they could get Barnes and Green in their first full year. So the new culture in their first full year was an immediate "sit healthy players to lose" style tank job.  Then they had their core and they build from there.  

Lots of teams flip the swip from lottery talent acquisition to building for the playoffs and with that change in mindset comes better veterans and a different attitude but not the prior owners with their designed drop into the lottery and the new owners with their outright rank job embraced acquiring talent above winning in the years in which GS acquired their core.

Schlenk was a big part of that and has outright said he is trying to duplicate it here.

[Guard]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Will they be in the championship equation before the talent start to leave??

I think so. 

When James retires, they'll be one of the teams competing with Milwaukee and Boston to come out of the east. Thing is, no young team has the equivalent of a Embiid/Simmons combination. Both of those guys are rediculous talents. You add Fultz to the mix who was the best prospect in the draft and you essentially have the next OKC.

We'll see if they can stay healthy but Philly has the pieces to eventually get the job done. Them having the Lakers  pick in the upcoming draft will also enable them to add even more talent which is just crazy to think about.

[AHF]

Definitely a crazy good game from Embiid yesterday.

[Packfill]

The East has a good chance to be very interesting in a few years.  Obviously the Western conference currently has more established stars, but the young unicorns in the east (Embiid, Simmons, Greek Freak and Porzingis) should be ready for prime time when Lebron's hegemony is over - not to mention the fact that those unicorns will attract other stars looking for rings.

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, Packfill said:

The East has a good chance to be very interesting in a few years.  Obviously the Western conference currently has more established stars, but the young unicorns in the east (Embiid, Simmons, Greek Freak and Porzingis) should be ready for prime time when Lebron's hegemony is over - not to mention the fact that those unicorns will attract other stars looking for rings.

They could.  No guarantees, though.  Sixers seem less of a flight risk than the Bucks and Knicks.  All the incumbents have to be the favorites but you just have to see how it plays out. 

[Sothron]

Just to add the lottery picks KAT and Wiggins have led the Wolves to the 3rd best record in the West right now.

[AHF]

24 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Just to add the lottery picks KAT and Wiggins have led the Wolves to the 3rd best record in the West right now.

There is real upside from there given that Butler has struggled like crazy with his shot so far.

[Sothron]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

There is real upside from there given that Butler has struggled like crazy with his shot so far.

Sadly, Butler has not looked good. His defense is there but offensively he's missing some bunnies at the rim or wide open shots. The team is being carried by KAT, Wiggins, Taj, strong bench play from Belly, Tyus Jones,  Bazz and Crawford. Teague is finally looking like an actual NBA starter.

[benhillboy]

27 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Sadly, Butler has not looked good. His defense is there but offensively he's missing some bunnies at the rim or wide open shots. The team is being carried by KAT, Wiggins, Taj, strong bench play from Belly, Tyus Jones,  Bazz and Crawford. Teague is finally looking like an actual NBA starter.

I’m concerned about my boy Butler.  His WS/48 as a rookie equaled “great role player,” last year, “All-NBA (should’ve been second team instead of third but okay)”  

Now it’s “hurtful starter.”  I haven’t watched them enough but I’m guessing he’s finding it hard to pick his spots alongside a similar wing in Wiggins.  He’s too smart to not get it together.

Edited November 16, 2017 by benhillboy

[Sothron]

I'm sure he'll be fine but the fact he's missing easy shots at the rim always sends alarm bells off in my head.

[Diesel]

9 hours ago, AHF said:

You don't need that year's MVP.  You need someone that good.  I'm not talking about Bill Walton on the Celtics.  I'm talking Larry Bird on the Celtics.  The Celtics didn't win titles every year he won MVP but they won titles with him because he was that good.  The Bulls didn't win titles every year Jordan was MVP but he was that good.  Kobe was a one-time MVP but won a bunch of titles because he was the central figure behind his teams (looking at the latter championships).

The question then becomes how you acquire an MVP talent.  FA?  Lol.  Trade?  Not unless you have a bunch of lottery talent to work with.  Draft?  That is the most common route because teams have a huge advantage on keeping their best players over anyone else in the market even though that isn't a lock by any means ala the NFL.

Still, for the most part, you can probably find more MVPs that were traded for than drafted...

 

[Diesel]

9 hours ago, AHF said:

The timing for your theory doesn't work.  I'm telling you they intentionally tore down and rebuilt.  You are saying the change in ownership means it can't have been a continuous process but why does that matter?

New owners came in and they went right to the lottery in their first year (when prior ownership had already set the direction and roster) and admit they pulled a blatant tank job that improved their draft position so they could get Barnes and Green in their first full year. So the new culture in their first full year was an immediate "sit healthy players to lose" style tank job.  Then they had their core and they build from there.  

Lots of teams flip the swip from lottery talent acquisition to building for the playoffs and with that change in mindset comes better veterans and a different attitude but not the prior owners with their designed drop into the lottery and the new owners with their outright rank job embraced acquiring talent above winning in the years in which GS acquired their core.

Schlenk was a big part of that and has outright said he is trying to duplicate it here.

So you suggest that GS tanked for what became Harrison Barnes.  Of all the players that GS had, Barnes is the least responsible for them winning a championship. 

[frosgrim]

25 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Still, for the most part, you can probably find more MVPs that were traded for than drafted...

 

But, you have to have draft capital to make it those trades work, by and large. Thus, in the Hawks situation where you had little player capital due to a host of reasons, they had to hit the giant restet button to start building the needed draft and player capital to make trades, and/or develop internally. 

[AHF]

47 minutes ago, Diesel said:

So you suggest that GS tanked for what became Harrison Barnes.  Of all the players that GS had, Barnes is the least responsible for them winning a championship. 

They overtly tanked to move up in the draft and then used those tank improved picks to take Barnes and Green.  Before that, they intentionally went into the lottery and picked up Curry and Thompson.  They went from a playoff team to a lottery team and stayed in the lottery until they got the assets they needed and that Barnes / Green blatant tank was the final rebuilding push after several years of deliberate rebuilding.  Once they had that young core, they reentered the free agent pool and picked up some nice vets, most notably Iggy.

I'm not a Barnes fan but he was in their top 5 during their championship and 73 win seasons (#5 on the team IMO).  Durant was a big upgrade who only came because of the players they drafted during their rebuild.  That said, they did win a championship and 67 and 73 games with Barnes so Durant's absence wasn't crippling the team at all.  His addition was just a nice upgrade on an already championship level squad.  (Hit that easy button, Kevin!)

I don't think they win those rings in they stay in the 40 win area and keep all the free agents they let walk and the players they traded to improve not their present but their future (flexibility and lottery status).

[Lurker]

I think the most foolproof method of trying to make a step forward into contender without years of being in the dumps is what we saw Houston do but it required gathering assets that the Hawks didn't have after last year and making the trade.

(Dennis Schröder is viewed in a completely different light in the NBA world from here, and it's not really about him being a "selfish brat", it's one reason but there are bigger issues, like his off the court stuff, etc, you're not going to get much more than potato chips for him, especially at this moment with what he got arrested for, so there's another reason why "that guy" needs to stop, but nevertheless, I'm trying to be above provoking people)

But really, what I'd do, and this isn't without it's faults is for me, this is my goal:

This season and next: Tank years, try to gather as much assets as possible.
In the offseason after next year's season: Decide which assets are going to help you and which that aren't, package those assets for a very good young player that you've targeted, and bring in veterans to help.
Year 3: Transition, may honestly make the playoffs due to how bad the East is but if not then a take a step forward year.
Year 4: Profit.

So I do think it's going to take a while but it's not ridiculous.

[AHF]

Houston's growth has been impressive.  They did trade lottery picks to get Harden but a title would be a first for their method, imo.

[Atlantaholic]

Have we already gone through how wonderful the Celtics were able to rebuild by trading their veteran star players early? Some teams rebuild better than others. Not every tanking team is the Sixers. 

[Diesel]

On 11/16/2017 at 5:49 PM, frosgrim said:

But, you have to have draft capital to make it those trades work, by and large. Thus, in the Hawks situation where you had little player capital due to a host of reasons, they had to hit the giant restet button to start building the needed draft and player capital to make trades, and/or develop internally. 

They had capital.. However, you have to know how to trade and when and what for.  IF we were going to release Sap, we should have traded him instead... during the season...