The Tank Thread

[AHF]

I agree with most of what you have written.  A few points that I would quibble over and some others that I totally agree on:

• Timeline will vary based on drafting.  5-8 years may be overstating things if we hit big but it could end up working out that way.  It wasn't until Michael Jordan's 4th year that the Bulls had a winning record and that was after 3 rebuilding seasons.  That said, they did make the playoffs his first three seasons (in an era where it was easier to make it with a losing record) so it also depends on what is going on with the other teams in the conference.  Right now a .500 record has you as the #6 seed in the West.
• We are definitely not unique in our inability to attract elite free agents.  Lots of teams are actually in our position.  
• Agree on none of our current players being untouchable.  Also agree that Collins is the most valuable of our players based on what we have seen to date.
• Agree that we are making at least two trips to the lottery.
• Agree on Bud being uncertain if he will be here at the end of our rebuilding.  He is already one of the more senior coaches in the East and turnover tends to happen over time and especially in rebuilding situations.  How he and Schlenk work together is important and TBD.
• Agree that player evaluation is key.  No question at all on this.  Pete Babcock would doom this team for eternity if he was the GM.  Collins was a great start for Schlenk.  Hope to see him keep it up.

[AHF]

18 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I agree.  I am right.

I'd let time play out before you crow too much.  Your prediction that Philly won't win 30 games doesn't look too great right now.

If you are going to be right there, they need to go 15-40 (or worse) the rest of the season.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

LOL . . we could all be dead by 2021.  Any GM or coach who has 3 consecutive losing seasons, doesn't stick around very long.  And the coach is DEFINITELY the one that goes first.  

Brett Brown in Philly is maybe the only guy that I can think of in recent memory, that got more than 3+ years to turn things around.  But now that he has the talent, not making the playoffs will be unacceptable to Philly fans.

People were calling for Woody to be fired after Year 3, as well as Knight.  The only way Woody survived initially, is because Knight was seen as the most detrimental to the progression of the franchise.  Luckily for Woody, Sund made the trade for Bibby, and that turned things around.

Edited December 13, 2017 by TheNorthCydeRises

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

 

We have signed on to a 5 to 8 year plan.  For those of you thinking that we're just going to jump right back into it, you're kidding yourselves.   We're not jumping right back into the playoffs.. This is the long game.  

 

5-8 years to do what?  Make the playoffs?  The team made the playoffs with good but not great veteran players last year.  Let me guess...If we had resigned Millsap and not traded Howard, you probably would be thinking playoffs this year right?  You think signing players like Sap and Howard are hard in free agency?.  Oh that's right,  You're in that Sap and Howard were superstars camp.  Nevermind.

[Sothron]

What a shock. Lemon 1 agrees with Lemon 2. Hold the presses! Hot take coming through!

[Wretch]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

 

1.  Only John Collins on this roster is somebody with staying power. 

A GM talking about finding a franchise player, doesn't speak well for the players that we have.   I suspect that our players are good but all are expendable.   We need to realize that as a fan base.   There are no sacred cows on this team.  Even Collins is tradable.   Hawks fans have to get out of that mentality that because we drafted them, they must be a star.  Not true.  In fact, I think recently, we have had more misses than hits. 

2.  Our Blueprint will not be Spurs, GS, or Milwaukee's or anybody elses. 

This team is unique in our inability to attract free agents and our inability to have a consistent fan base.  Because we are unique in those aspects, we will have a unique solution that Schlenk is going to stumble upon.  He is going to have to be an expert of talent recognition.   Much like Ferry, he's going to have to work lock step with his coach and pick players that fit the coaches strength.   Honestly, No coach can coach any player.  Coaches have needs just as much as players do and those needs fit the scheme. 

- Disagree 100%
The problem with attracting free agents is a simple one that we have 

3.  This road has at least 2 trips to the lottery in it. 

It's a hard time for this plan because from year to year, we don't know if the NBA will institute their plans to change how the draft lottery works.   It's an Atlanta screwjob coming.   Fortunately it's not this year.  We are slated to be in the top part of the lottery for the next 2 years (at least).  This still doesn't suggest that we will be out of the lottery after that.   Probably like last time, expect 4 to 5 years in the lottery before we see a change in our winning.

4.  Hold on, Bud may not make it up the mountain. 

Bud is no Marvin Lewis.  He's a great coach, but if you go back to #2, Bud and Schlenk have to work lockstep with each other and I'm not sure that Schlenk will give Bud everything that Bud wants.  

5.  Player Evaluation is key.

Schlenk major job is to evaluate players and see how do they fit.  If he sees a player that don't fit, his job is to move them.  Fanbase has to give Schlenk some room here. 

 

So the real question is when does Schlenk really get evaluated? i would say 2021.

 

On point 1) Agree 90%
In my book, everything is negotiable until you have a team that is contending in the ECF's.  Then at least part of your core is untouchable.  My hope is that we don't ride our guys out like we did last go round.  We had plenty of opportunity for trades and we missed.  No more sacred cows.
 

On point 2) Disagree 100%
The reason why Atlanta has a problem attracting free agents is ridiculously simple.  Yet, for the life of me...I can't understand why Hawks fans can't get their minds around it.  People...  You need talent to attract talent.  No marquee player is coming here as long as our roster is highlighted by Tier-2.5/3 talent.  That's it.  By all means, you need other things to create an attractive situation, but the foundation of your free agent appeal is your talent core.

On point 3) Neither agree nor disagree
It is what it is.  I can see us sniffing the playoffs after a solid rookie pickup, a breakout performance, and maybe a free agent steal.  I think 3-5 trips to the lottery is also realistic - with the later trips being playoff near misses.  Anything beyond that is up for serious debate.

On point 4) Agree 100%
The one thing that does suck about this to me is the potential to lose Coach Bud.  I'd really like to see this man coach a Hawks team with legitimate top tier talent.  *big sigh*

On point 5) Agree 50%
Timing IMO is half of this equation.  Sometimes, it's the right evaluation at the right time.  For example: Joe Johnson and James Harden being the right talent, in the ideal situation (for a trade) at the right time...and pulling the trigger on a deal.  I don't disagree with you though.  On a side note, I'd like to have seen what Danny Ferry could do with lottery picks.

[KB21]

50 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'd let time play out before you crow too much.  Your prediction that Philly won't win 30 games doesn't look too great right now.

If you are going to be right there, they need to go 15-40 (or worse) the rest of the season.

Philly still is hovering around .500 in year 5 of their tank, with supposedly two uber superstar talents, one of which doesn't even play on back to back nights.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

Philly still is hovering around .500 in year 5 of their tank, with supposedly two uber superstar talents, one of which doesn't even play on back to back nights.

That is a strange way of saying, "Yep, I sure was wrong about them this year."

[KB21]

24 minutes ago, AHF said:

That is a strange way of saying, "Yep, I sure was wrong about them this year."

They are the definition of why tanking doesn't work.  

[noble]

What I don't get is what people thought could and would actually happen. I mean we had a roster that was slowly getting worse, we couldn't keep the talent we had, and we couldn't get high quality talent in. I agree this might take a few years, it wasn't like we were contending for a ring anyway. I get the idea of morale and such, but if there is a clear path the first year or 2 shouldn't be so heartbreaking for players and staff. They know what the road forward is and have a clear understanding of the intent. Now if it goes beyond 3 or 4 years, I can see the morale becoming an issue, but I just don't see it now.

I can buy the idea of 2 or so years in the lottery, completely there in my head. No illusions otherwise. But to say this is a 5 or 6 year thing, eh, not there.

Player evaluation is the key to every team no matter where they are in the pecking order. It is about finding the best pieces to accomplish what you want.

I'll roll with it for a while, and I can accept it. I want to see a ring for the Hawks before I die. Maybe this path works, maybe it doesn't. What I do know is we weren't sniffing one the road we were on.

[Buzzard]

There is no plan when you don't know how your pick will turn out. If Schlenk has his way, this years pick will be Durant or Kat like, and the next pick will be similar. After that, it is push for the playoffs.

Problem is the plan has no guaranteed outcome. A 2 year plan turns into a 4 year plan, and the 4 year plan turns into a 8 year plan. By year 8, Schlenk will be at a new job if we are not in the playoffs by year 5 or sooner.

Edited December 13, 2017 by Buzzard

[KB21]

So again, what team set the precedent for tearing the roster down to the worst collection of talent in the entire league and ended up only making the lottery for 2 years?

[Buzzard]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

So again, what team set the precedent for tearing the roster down to the worst collection of talent in the entire league and ended up only making the lottery for 2 years?

There is no precedent for the lottery and winning championships. If any formula at all was shown to prove out, every team would just follow it. It is called the lottery, not the championship formula for a reason.

[KB21]

1 minute ago, Buzzard said:

There is no precedent for the lottery and winning championships. If any formula at all was shown to prove out, every team would just follow it. It is called the lottery, not the championship formula for a reason.

So, it's a foolish team building strategy then.

[Buzzard]

12 minutes ago, KB21 said:

So, it's a foolish team building strategy then.

I said there is no precedent or proven formula. 5 to 8 year plan is no more a guaranteed formula than a 2 to 4 year lottery plan.  In no uncertain terms there is no formula. If you hit early, you get back early. If you hit late, you get back in contention later.

That is much more a fact; than some dreamed up hyperbole plan or 76er style "trust the process" mumbo jumbo.

Edited December 13, 2017 by Buzzard

[AHF]

45 minutes ago, KB21 said:

They are the definition of why tanking doesn't work.  

You value making the playoffs and consider that to be the most important aspect of a team.  You were upset because we didn't resign all the pieces of our 43-39 team last season to put us in position to repeat that type of record (with our negative point differential last season).  The Sixers are on pace to make the playoffs with the same record we had last season and have lots of players with significant room to grow and develop.

[Buzzard]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

You value making the playoffs and consider that to be the most important aspect of a team.  You were upset because we didn't resign all the pieces of our 43-39 team last season to put us in position to repeat that type of record (with our negative point differential last season).  The Sixers are on pace to make the playoffs with the same record we had last season and have lots of players with significant room to grow and develop.

Yes but man have their fans suffered. Despite the great history of this franchise, they have not made the playoffs three years in a row since the 2002/2003 season. And they have made nine lottery picks since 2002/03. If it takes us that long to get back to the playoffs three years in a row ( they have still not done it since then ), I may not be alive to see it.

[Lurker]

I already watch a lot of a sport in which mediocrity gets rewarded on the regular, it wouldn't hurt my feelings at ALL if the NBA contracted the playoffs and made some people shut up about it.

Edited December 13, 2017 by Lurker

[MaceCase]

4 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

People were calling for Woody to be fired after Year 3, as well as Knight.  The only way Woody survived initially, is because Knight was seen as the most detrimental to the progression of the franchise.  Luckily for Woody, Sund made the trade for Bibby, and that turned things around.

I'm getting old but I'm pretty sure that BK made the Bibby trade as his last gasp.  Sund came in the summer after and had to negotiate with the Joshes.

[AHF]

39 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

Yes but man have their fans suffered. Despite the great history of this franchise, they have not made the playoffs three years in a row since the 2002/2003 season. And they have made nine lottery picks since 2002/03. If it takes us that long to get back to the playoffs three years in a row ( they have still not done it since then ), I may not be alive to see it.

I don't see us on the same path but I do see them at least on the path to consistent playoff appearances for the foreseeable future at this point.  Going back to 2002-03 takes you back through several administrations that weren't tanking (that includes 5 years with Allen Iverson, for example) but just couldn't build a good enough team.  They were a lot more like us last season than like the team that drafted Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.