The Tank Thread

[DS5]

4 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Did you read what I said?..My question is in this draft, are the top 3 in this draft clearly that much better than picks 4-8?

I think the top 3 prospects (Ayton, Bagley, Doncic) this year can be franchise changers and are significantly better than the next 4-5 picks (Bamba, Young, Porter Jr., Bridges, etc.). Obviously none of us can predict how they'll turn out, but I can definitely see the argument from the "pro-tankers" for getting one of those 3 players.

[Peoriabird]

Just now, DS5 said:

I think the top 3 prospects (Ayton, Bagley, Doncic) this year can be franchise changers and are significantly better than the next 4-5 picks (Bamba, Young, Porter Jr., Bridges, etc.). Obviously none of us can predict how they'll turn out, but I can definitely see the argument from the "pro-tankers" for getting one of those 3 players.

That's an opinion and we'll see whether you are right or not next season

[Buzzard]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Did you read what I said?..My question is in this draft, are the top 3 in this draft clearly that much better than picks 4-8?

Right now, I would say Ayton, Bagley, and Doncic are clear leaders. But the trade deadline will probably show us if Travis thinks that. Which is more important than what I think :) I don't try and get caught up in the hype after seeing players like Wade drafted 5th, Paul George 10th, and Kawhi Leonard 15th.

If you are asking me for a guarantee, I got nothing for you. Many think Porter and Bamba could end up being just as good or better.

[nathan2331]

 

 

Scouts and fans always think there are stars at the top of the draft.  They always think that guys at the top of draft are can't miss.  There are no Lebrons or Durants in this years draft so are the Horfords of the world worth getting rid of very useful player for?  We'll see

 

I guess we will see, but there's plenty in the draft to be excited about Ayton/Bagley and even Bamba are great big men prospects and Jaren Jackson is not that far from them. Even though I don't want him, Trae Young is lighting up teams and Doncic is the best European 18 year old ever.

 

The next crop of guys are good on their own merit, but that doesn't mean drafting Ayton wouldn't change the fortunes of this franchise. If trading any expiring vet gets us closer to the top pick then they gotta go. We can get something of value back, and we can always re-sign them.

[AHF]

Just now, DS5 said:

I think the top 3 prospects (Ayton, Bagley, Doncic) this year can be franchise changers and are significantly better than the next 4-5 picks (Bamba, Young, Porter Jr., Bridges, etc.). Obviously none of us can predict how they'll turn out, but I can definitely see the argument from the "pro-tankers" for getting one of those 3 players.

That is where I am sitting.  Granted - I am not great scout so it is just fan armchair QBing but I would trade assets to move from the top 8 to the top 3 for sure.

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

That's an opinion and we'll see whether you are right or not next season

I wouldn't say next season.  1 season isn't much of a window to evaluate new draft picks.  Dirk and many other great picks would look like a flop from that perspective.

I get your point with the vets you want to keep (for me that is Dedmon).  The interesting thing with Dedmon and Ilya is the question of how much better our chances are of keeping them if we don't trade them than if we just go after them in FA this offseason.  Both will be UFAs.  

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, Buzzard said:

Right now, I would say Ayton, Bagley, and Doncic are clear leaders. But the trade deadline will probably show us if Travis thinks that. Which is more important than what I think :) I don't try and get caught up in the hype after seeing players like Wade drafted 5th, Paul George 10th, and Kawhi Leonard 15th.

If you are asking me for a guarantee, I got nothing for you. Many think Porter and Bamba could end up being just as good or better.

Eggactly!  Some draft sites don't have Doncic in the top 4.

[Buzzard]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

That is where I am sitting.  Granted - I am not great scout so it is just fan armchair QBing but I would trade assets to move from the top 8 to the top 3 for sure.

I wouldn't say next season.  1 season isn't much of a window to evaluate new draft picks.  Dirk and many other great picks would look like a flop from that perspective.

I get your point with the vets you want to keep (for me that is Dedmon).  The interesting thing with Dedmon and Ilya is the question of how much better our chances are of keeping them if we don't trade them than if we just go after them in FA this offseason.  Both will be UFAs.  

No kidding. A chance to play for a contender vs play for us. I think you and I are on the same page here. Overpay to keep them or let them walk.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Buzzard

[Guard]

This is a top heavy draft so the Hawks picking from 6-9 would be a disaster. I’d be fine picking from that range if the team was further along in a rebuild. Players like Mikal Bridges and Bamba would go well with a team that already has a cornerstone or two in place.  This is year one of the rebuild  and missing out on one of top guys would definitely hurt. 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Eggactly!  Some draft sites don't have Doncic in the top 4.

Any particular pick in any given year is a lot more random than the data from over a larger period of time - just like picking Ray Allen or Random Guy From the Crowd could go either direction on a particular half court shot.  The larger bulk of data makes it pretty clear that talent can be found anywhere but the odds are very meaningfully different of finding that impact talent as you move down from the first pick.  Heck, you could point to Manu Ginobili or Isaiah Thomas for the proposition that you can draft stars even with the very last pick of the draft and you'd be right but you'd be stupid to ignore the odds in that region of the draft.   I want those odds optimized and not to simply hope we hit on a long-shot at #15 or something.  

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

I get your point with the vets you want to keep (for me that is Dedmon).  The interesting thing with Dedmon and Ilya is the question of how much better our chances are of keeping them if we don't trade them than if we just go after them in FA this offseason.  Both will be UFAs.  

Yep...I'm looking at Bagley,Porter and Bamba and saying are these guys that much worse than the top 3?

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

No kidding. A chance to play for a contender vs play for us. I think you and I are on the same page here. Overpay to keep them or let them walk.

It's not hard to see a scenario where they want to win and leave us whether we trade them or not or a scenario where we want the money and can outbid teams just as easily if we deal them than we can if we keep them this year.

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

It's not hard to see a scenario where they want to win and leave us whether we trade them or not or a scenario where we want the money and can outbid teams just as easily if we deal them than we can if we keep them this year.

I think this should be the determining factor not the draft status.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Yep...I'm looking at Bagley,Porter and Bamba and saying are these guys that much worse than the top 3?

Bagley is in the top 3 with Doncic and Ayton.  Porter is a red flag medical risk and has question marks around his ability to do more than score assisted baskets.  Bamba has huge question marks around his offense.  Both have big upside but also much lower downside than the top 3.  

We could finish in the top 3 and still be facing a choice of one of them at 5 or 6 if we get unlucky.  What scares the #$# out of me is the idea of finishing with the 4th worst record and ending up looking at a draft board that doesn't have Doncic, Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, Young or Porter.

[Buzzard]

Just now, AHF said:

It's not hard to see a scenario where they want to win and leave us whether we trade them or not or a scenario where we want the money and can outbid teams just as easily if we deal them than we can if we keep them this year.

I think Dedmon will want to start or get paid; and getting paid usually means starter money. Ersan is a harder read but he would be a big help for any contender. Both of them are looking at a chance to sign a good contract; possibly their last really good contract.

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Bagley is in the top 3 with Doncic and Ayton.  Porter is a red flag medical risk and has question marks around his ability to do more than score assisted baskets.  Bamba has huge question marks around his offense.  Both have big upside but also much lower downside than the top 3.  

We could finish in the top 3 and still be facing a choice of one of them at 5 or 6 if we get unlucky.  What scares the #$# out of me is the idea of finishing with the 4th worst record and ending up looking at a draft board that doesn't have Doncic, Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, Young or Porter.

Is Jaren Jackson that much worse than those 6?

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

I think this should be the determining factor that the draft status.

If Schlenk wants them back, he should definitely factor it in and perhaps have some dialogue with their agents.  If they like playing for Bud and the team intends to tank it up, it might be a win/win to trade them and then resign them in the offseason.  Either way, for me at least, drafting an MVP talent is priority #1.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Is Jaren Jackson that much worse than those 6?

For me, I would consider it a disaster if we end up with him.  I would moan and then root like crazy for him and hope he exceeds my expectations.

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

If Schlenk wants them back, he should definitely factor it in and perhaps have some dialogue with their agents.  If they like playing for Bud and the team intends to tank it up, it might be a win/win to trade them and then resign them in the offseason. 

Absolutely!

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

 Either way, for me at least, drafting an MVP talent is priority #1.

We don't know which one if any will meet this goal.  But what we do know is what we have already.  What is that saying about a bird in the hand?  Orlando, Phoenix and Sacramento need to understand that simple concept.

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

We don't know which one if any will meet this goal.  But what we do know is what we have already.  What is that saying about a bird in the hand?  Orlando, Phoenix and Sacramento need to understand that simple concept.

If they did really understand what they had already, all 3 of these teams would have spent more time building in the draft and less time taking stupid gambles trying to win now that set back their team building for years.