Up Dated WARP Projections for Hawks

KB21 · June 28, 2018

This is from Five Thirty Eight's CARMELO system. What you need to know about WARP is that it stands for wins above replacement level, and that a team full of replacement level players would project out to around 10 wins. So, you can somewhat project out how many wins your team will have by adding the total WARP to 10 wins.

John Collins 1.9 WARP

Taurean Prince 1.1 WARP

Kent Bazemore 1.6 WARP

Dennis Schröder 0.9 WARP

Dewayne Dedmon 0.7 WARP

Isaiah Taylor -0.4 WARP

Miles Plumlee -0.8 WARP

Mike Muscala 0.2 WARP

Trae Young 0.1 WARP

Kevin Huerter -0.5 WARP

Omari Spellman -0.1 WARP

Tyler Dorsey -0.6 WARP

That will probably be the Hawks top 12 guys, and you will see a mix of G-League players such as Andrew White, Jaylen Adams, perhaps Jalen Morris round out the team. Just based on the top 12, the total projected WARP for the top 12 guys on the roster is 4.1 WARP right now. That comes out to a 14 win team in raw numbers.

Based upon this and what I believe Travis's plan is in free agency this off season, I think the absolute maximum amount of games this team wins in 2018-2019 is 18 games. That number could go down as well, because I believe Dennis will be traded before the season starts, and you will see them try to move Dedmon and Bazemore. If/when that happens, then this team may very well match the 2004 team's record of 13 wins.

It's going to be BAD, folks!!

KB21 · June 28, 2018

OK, for some reason, when I typed projections, it autocorrected to projects. (Fixed - AHF)

NBASupes · June 28, 2018

:ahf:

KB21 · June 28, 2018

8 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Are you ready to pay up? Marvin Bagley III is projected at -0.7 WARP with a plus/minus of -1.5 for 2018-2019.

NBASupes · June 28, 2018

Just now, KB21 said:

Are you ready to pay up? Marvin Bagley III is projected at -0.7 WARP with a plus/minus of -1.5 for 2018-2019.

BPM is the betting selection and it's funny you post projections you have no understanding of when they get to the NBA, all of a sudden, it all changes. This will be the easiest money to make ever.

KB21 · June 28, 2018

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

BPM is the betting selection and it's funny you post projections you have no understanding of when they get to the NBA, all of a sudden, it all changes. This will be the easiest money to make ever.

For me.

KB21 · June 28, 2018

I just realized that I left off DeAndre Bembry. He is projected at -0.3 WARP. So, now we have a projected WARP of 3.8 for the top 13 on the roster.

Peoriabird · June 28, 2018

What is Pierce's WARP?...Its got to be negative on the KP warp mind scale taking our win total even lower.

KB21 · June 28, 2018

5 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

What is Pierce's WARP?...Its got to be negative on the KP warp mind scale taking our win total even lower.

It's interesting that you mention that. It's not calculated, but when I projected the Hawks record out last year, I gave the Hawks a 5 win bump just based on the Bud factor. WARP came out at around 18 wins for the Hawks, but due to Bud, I projected 23 wins.

I don't see anyway that Pierce is a positive factor for the team this year.

Peoriabird · June 28, 2018

24 minutes ago, KB21 said:

It's interesting that you mention that. It's not calculated, but when I projected the Hawks record out last year, I gave the Hawks a 5 win bump just based on the Bud factor. WARP came out at around 18 wins for the Hawks, but due to Bud, I projected 23 wins.

I don't see anyway that Pierce is a positive factor for the team this year.

So the prediction is 10 wins now? Or is that still too high?

KB21 · June 28, 2018

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

So the prediction is 10 wins now? Or is that still too high?

My projection is currently less than 18 wins.

benhillboy · June 28, 2018

Seems accurate, I’d bump Collins a hair over 2 and Dead up to 1. The number for Spellman projects his NBA learning curve isn’t near as steep as his selection slot suggests. Just the slight chance we could have a Baby Warriors Core is exciting. Before Burner Account Internet Troll I couldn’t get enough of them boys’ style and spirit of play.

AHF · June 28, 2018

Here is some more info from the site: