What's The Consensus?

[KB21]

2 hours ago, sillent said:

I left multiple bold questions so this could be explained in detail. I'm seeing opinions with no answers or explanations to my particular question. I appreciate honest opinions but I left questions to get a better understanding of the overall consensus. From the statement above I can't even tell if #PACKFILL even knows most of the players on our current roster. Nor do I know if this is from true feelings/belief or consensus from the media.

Why Is It Laughable?

Who Is That Bad Or Should I Say How Many Bad Players Do We Have For Our Team To Be So Terribly Constructed?

From my understanding we have a nice amount of young talent that people will be routing for individually. In my opinion it's not an individual game nor do I think a particular individual is going to put us over the top. I expect this team to exceed expectations because of what I see them capable of collectively.

Not too many individuals can put a team over the top alone it's usually the right role players with collection of stars (or atleast people playing like it for that year). Our 60 win team is a good example. We couldn't point out a superstar but collectively we looked great from starters to bench and got 4 all stars out of the effort. Pero/Baze/ Shelvin Mack/ Mike Scott/ John Jenkins/ Elton Brand/ Thabo individually don't put fear in most opponents hearts nor do they scream star. There was no major upgrade from the prior year other than Horford coming back from injury. The magic came from how we played and developed together. Actually looking at that team gives me even more hope now and in the future for our newly constructed team. Most of the players on our 60 win team especially the bench had obvious flaws. The only flaw you can say about most of our current players is defense. That's on coach Pierce and I have a feeling he will put their collective efforts together so even that won't look so bad.   

  

Here's the reason why this is not going to be a good team this year.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/05/player-progression-in-the-nba/

There is a definitive developmental curve in the NBA when it comes to young players.

So, you are looking at 19-20 year old players who historically do not contribute much at all to winning games, and you see that they tend to peak around their age 24-25 seasons and stay relatively positive into their early 30s.  

When you look at the make up of this roster, we have a few veteran players who "are what they are" right now in Kent Bazemore, Dewayne Dedmon, and Jeremy Lin.  I'm not counting Vince Carter at this point because it is unlikely that he is a major contributor on the floor in game situations this year, and he's so far past his prime that he's not a winning caliber player any longer.

Outside of those four players, you have young players who are on various stages of this developmental curve.  

Here is another article that discusses this growth/developmental curve in the NBA: https://fansided.com/2018/06/12/nylon-calculus-college-prospect-growth-curve/

 

[sillent]

On 7/26/2018 at 0:10 AM, KB21 said:

Here's the reason why this is not going to be a good team this year.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/05/player-progression-in-the-nba/

There is a definitive developmental curve in the NBA when it comes to young players.

So, you are looking at 19-20 year old players who historically do not contribute much at all to winning games, and you see that they tend to peak around their age 24-25 seasons and stay relatively positive into their early 30s.  

When you look at the make up of this roster, we have a few veteran players who "are what they are" right now in Kent Bazemore, Dewayne Dedmon, and Jeremy Lin.  I'm not counting Vince Carter at this point because it is unlikely that he is a major contributor on the floor in game situations this year, and he's so far past his prime that he's not a winning caliber player any longer.

Outside of those four players, you have young players who are on various stages of this developmental curve.  

Here is another article that discusses this growth/developmental curve in the NBA: https://fansided.com/2018/06/12/nylon-calculus-college-prospect-growth-curve/

 

This I can respect. Even though analytics don't always tell the story at least this is a reasonable explanation. Overall win or lose this should be a fun season to watch!

[KB21]

12 minutes ago, sillent said:

This I can respect. Even though analytics don't always tell the story at least this is a reasonable explanation. Overall win or lose this should be a fun season to watch!

For me, watching a team lose is not fun.  Some of you make take pleasure in watching players developing.  I take pleasure in winning.  

[sillent]

21 minutes ago, KB21 said:

For me, watching a team lose is not fun.  Some of you make take pleasure in watching players developing.  I take pleasure in winning.  

I agree it's not fun especially if they aren't playing up to par and expectations. With that being said I actually had some enjoyment watching that 13 win season with the Josh's because of potential. Josh Smith had a game against the Mavericks where he had 10 blocks. It was alot of effort and potential shown. I honestly don't expect this team to lose as much as most because of our overall collective talent. I'm very interested to see how we fair with normal statistics because the average young team doesn't come with the diverse talent we have. Young or old we have some gunners and the basket is the same on any court. Drives, turnovers, defense may be an issue at times but as long as shooting is consistent from a couple of our players on most nights and we play as a team we might be a huge surprise. Atleast beating out the teams that can't keep up with our scoring. At this point we look like one of the lone West coast style teams on the East. Most of the other teams will mainly only have grit and grind backing them. Style goes a long way & for this up and coming season in particular that might give us a random unseen edge.

[KB21]

That 13 win season almost drove me away from basketball.  It was miserable.  I never want to experience that level of futility again. If Schlenk deals Bazemore, this team will come very close to that level of futility.  

[nathan2331]

That 13 win season almost drove me away from basketball.  It was miserable.  I never want to experience that level of futility again. If Schlenk deals Bazemore, this team will come very close to that level of futility.  

Do the first round exits and Lebron-sweeps not disgust you?

[MaceCase]

The definitive aspect of what constitutes "greatness" is the path taken to get there i.e. no one cares that you're standing on a mountaintop, they care how hard and how far you had to climb to get there.  Then again, some are more content with planting flags on molehills (playoffs) than actually attempting to ascend Everest (championship).  

 

[macdaddy]

9 hours ago, KB21 said:

That 13 win season almost drove me away from basketball.  It was miserable.  I never want to experience that level of futility again. If Schlenk deals Bazemore, this team will come very close to that level of futility.  

I agree we could use Baze's leadership but I think you are overrating his impact on the court.   He's a great guy to have on a team full of vets.   On a team of developing talent he tries to do way too much and ends up hurting us.  I mean last year had a very high level of futility and Baze was leading the charge right?

[sillent]

11 hours ago, KB21 said:

That 13 win season almost drove me away from basketball.  It was miserable.  I never want to experience that level of futility again. If Schlenk deals Bazemore, this team will come very close to that level of futility.  

To be honest Bazemore is more of a hinder than a helper to me. I'm hoping Baze proves me wrong if he's still around but I don't equate age with wins I equate talent. I had high hopes for Baze and besides the 60 win season and probably last year he has disappointed. With him gone hopefully a healthy Bembry and the rest of our young potential can have more room to grow, develop and showcase their talent. Bazemore at this point is closer to his decline than getting better especially with us.

[AHF]

3 hours ago, sillent said:

To be honest Bazemore is more of a hinder than a helper to me. I'm hoping Baze proves me wrong if he's still around but I don't equate age with wins I equate talent. I had high hopes for Baze and besides the 60 win season and probably last year he has disappointed. With him gone hopefully a healthy Bembry and the rest of our young potential can have more room to grow, develop and showcase their talent. Bazemore at this point is closer to his decline than getting better especially with us.

I thought he was very solid last season and at age 29 I don't see any reason for decline.  That 3pt% is likely to regress from last year but another 12, 3, 4 season with solid defense looks likely if he stays with us.

Now Baze coming out of the lineup absolutely did open things up for Prince to blossom late last season.  How the two of them play together is one of the many things that I am extremely interested in seeing with this team.

[macdaddy]

I like Baze as a person and would like to have him for some continuity, but I can see the attraction of moving his contract.   If Baze is moved then the only contract of any size next year is Plumlee.  That's assuming we don't take back Anderson or something.  

[KB21]

13 hours ago, MaceCase said:

The definitive aspect of what constitutes "greatness" is the path taken to get there i.e. no one cares that you're standing on a mountaintop, they care how hard and how far you had to climb to get there.  Then again, some are more content with planting flags on molehills (playoffs) than actually attempting to ascend Everest (championship).  

 

Actually, the pro tankers are content with being at the bottom of the mountain if they don't feel their is a chance to win a championship.  It's basically championship or bust to you guys.

[KB21]

8 hours ago, macdaddy said:

I agree we could use Baze's leadership but I think you are overrating his impact on the court.   He's a great guy to have on a team full of vets.   On a team of developing talent he tries to do way too much and ends up hurting us.  I mean last year had a very high level of futility and Baze was leading the charge right?

Baze is still projected as a 1.6 WAR player, so he will definitely have a small impact on winning.  If the Hawks deal him and resort to starting Kevin Huerter, they are looking at dropping from 20 wins to around the 15 win area.  

[KB21]

6 hours ago, sillent said:

To be honest Bazemore is more of a hinder than a helper to me. I'm hoping Baze proves me wrong if he's still around but I don't equate age with wins I equate talent. I had high hopes for Baze and besides the 60 win season and probably last year he has disappointed. With him gone hopefully a healthy Bembry and the rest of our young potential can have more room to grow, develop and showcase their talent. Bazemore at this point is closer to his decline than getting better especially with us.

Those players you mentioned will definitely have more room to get on the floor and fail, not grow.  

[MaceCase]

3 hours ago, KB21 said:

Actually, the pro tankers are content with being at the bottom of the mountain if they don't feel their is a chance to win a championship.  It's basically championship or bust to you guys.

Any mountaineer will tell you that you risk suicide if you attempt to ascend under unfavorable conditions, a lot of the time you have to go down in order to go up.  

 

But ill throw in an anti-tanker dig while I’m at it.  Anti-tankers are content taking photos with the mountain in the background, struggling to catch the perfect angle where it looks as though they are pinching  the summit.  

That is their championship.  

That pinch however also serves to symbolize their actual chances of reaching the summit.  

[hazer]

7 minutes ago, MaceCase said:

But ill throw in an anti-tanker dig while I’m at it.  Anti-tankers are content taking photos with the mountain in the background, struggling to catch the perfect angle where it looks as though they are pinching  the summit.  

That is their championship.  

That pinch however also serves to symbolize their actual chances of reaching the summit.  

Crushing your head ??

[hazer]

4 minutes ago, hazer said:

Crushing your head ??

[nathan2331]

Actually, the pro tankers are content with being at the bottom of the mountain if they don't feel their is a chance to win a championship.  It's basically championship or bust to you guys.

Why would you keep a team together if you think they will never be able to win a championship? That's a waste of time. Once you've maxed out, it's time to hit the reset button.

[KB21]

2 hours ago, nathan2331 said:

6 hours ago, KB21 said:

Actually, the pro tankers are content with being at the bottom of the mountain if they don't feel their is a chance to win a championship.  It's basically championship or bust to you guys.

 

Why would you keep a team together if you think they will never be able to win a championship? That's a waste of time. Once you've maxed out, it's time to hit the reset button.

No.  You should always continue to make moves to improve the team, not  bottom out and take the path that has produced exactly ZERO championships. 

To have a chance to two putt a hole, you have to actually be on the green. The pro tankers are hoping for the hole in one by bottoming out for draft position when the far more likely outcome is a double bogey.  

[nathan2331]

No.  You should always continue to make moves to improve the team, not  bottom out and take the path that has produced exactly ZERO championships. 

To have a chance to two putt a hole, you have to actually be on the green. The pro tankers are hoping for the hole in one by bottoming out for draft position when the far more likely outcome is a double bogey.  

 

No.  You should always continue to make moves to improve the team, not  bottom out and take the path that has produced exactly ZERO championships. 

To have a chance to two putt a hole, you have to actually be on the green. The pro tankers are hoping for the hole in one by bottoming out for draft position when the far more likely outcome is a double bogey.  

 

So, when the Sonics/Thunder bottomed out to draft Durant, Westbrook and Harden, according to your logic they should've held onto Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen in 2007 just to keep losing in the playoffs.

 

The Millsap and Howard tandem was going nowhere, our run was over. Would you still like to see Howard on the roster? Would you like to be currently paying Millsap 30 million a season? It was about time we hopped off the treadmill. Most likely we'll end up where we started. It doesn't take much to be a playoff team in the East. We very well could turn into a legitimate contender though. It's a risk worth taking. The reality is that the NBA team's that contend year in-year out are usually led by lottery talent because that's where you're most likely to draft a high-caliber player. It took us getting Horford at #3 to propel us into our 12 year playoff run.

 

Hopefully Trae and whoever we draft next year can surpass that. You're right that a losing team is not an ideal situation for a rookie to come into, but that doesn't proper development cannot still occur.