Young, first round picks on Hawks roster

[nathan2331]

 

 

That's not true.  Pierce could be a dang good coach, and the team could still be losing.   Minnesota, even with KAT and Wiggins, wasn't good in KAT's 2nd year.   Thibs only won 2 more games than Sam Mitchell did in that season ( from 29 to 31 wins ).  It took Minnesota trading for Jimmy  Butler, to become good again.

If we're not good in 2 years, that's much more of an indictment on Schlenk, than it will be on Pierce.  This team does not look good AT ALL to be a good defensive team.  Even if they're top 15 in offense, they could be atrocious on the defensive end.

 

Thibs ain't that great of a coach if you ask me. I don't know who should shoulder the rest of the blame for KAT and Wiggins being so trash on defense (the players themselves are the primary reason), but from what I've seen that whole team is dysfunctional even with Jimmy Butler. KAT doesn't get the ball like he should, Wiggins doesn't do anything when he isn't getting touches and Butler is still ball dominant at times. Those are all coaching issues. The GM should take all the blame for handing Wiggins that max contract, but he's done his job well otherwise.

 

As far as the Hawks are concerned, I think our future is going to depend on how well Schlenk will be able to trade for stars or recruit free agents with the cap space he's created. Once everyone gets off their rookie deals, our cap space will evaporate so we need to bring some people in before Prince becomes an RFA. In this day and age, recruiting two guys is easier than recruiting just one, so while we're not in pole position to sign anybody, I do think if we trade for one established star signing a second becomes much easier.

[KB21]

59 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

That's not true.  Pierce could be a dang good coach, and the team could still be losing.   Minnesota, even with KAT and Wiggins, wasn't good in KAT's 2nd year.   Thibs only won 2 more games than Sam Mitchell did in that season ( from 29 to 31 wins ).  It took Minnesota trading for Jimmy  Butler, to become good again.

If we're not good in 2 years, that's much more of an indictment on Schlenk, than it will be on Pierce.  This team does not look good AT ALL to be a good defensive team.  Even if they're top 15 in offense, they could be atrocious on the defensive end.

Actually, it's more of an indictment on the process.  

[thecampster]

7 hours ago, KB21 said:

Playoffs.

Okay so in your opinion, we don't make the playoffs this year or next?  I already broke down the cap issue with the team next year assuming 3 top 15 picks. After this year, Young, Collins, Prince, Spellman will all be on the roster and a year older and assuming we get 3 1st rounders next year, we will still have $34 million to spend after the dust settles.  

So is it your contention that there is no way next year's team makes the playoffs?

Just now, thecampster said:

Okay so in your opinion, we don't make the playoffs this year or next?  I already broke down the cap issue with the team next year assuming 3 top 15 picks. After this year, Young, Collins, Prince, Spellman will all be on the roster and a year older and assuming we get 3 1st rounders next year, we will still have $34 million to spend after the dust settles.  

So is it your contention that there is no way next year's team makes the playoffs?

This is a given and includes you don't think this year's team makes the playoffs either.

 

[thecampster]

6 hours ago, nathan2331 said:

 

 

 

 

Thibs ain't that great of a coach if you ask me. I don't know who should shoulder the rest of the blame for KAT and Wiggins being so trash on defense (the players themselves are the primary reason), but from what I've seen that whole team is dysfunctional even with Jimmy Butler. KAT doesn't get the ball like he should, Wiggins doesn't do anything when he isn't getting touches and Butler is still ball dominant at times. Those are all coaching issues. The GM should take all the blame for handing Wiggins that max contract, but he's done his job well otherwise.

 

As far as the Hawks are concerned, I think our future is going to depend on how well Schlenk will be able to trade for stars or recruit free agents with the cap space he's created. Once everyone gets off their rookie deals, our cap space will evaporate so we need to bring some people in before Prince becomes an RFA. In this day and age, recruiting two guys is easier than recruiting just one, so while we're not in pole position to sign anybody, I do think if we trade for one established star signing a second becomes much easier.

Thibs might be the best defensive coach in basketball (while simultaneously being an offensive train wreck).

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Okay so in your opinion, we don't make the playoffs this year or next?  I already broke down the cap issue with the team next year assuming 3 top 15 picks. After this year, Young, Collins, Prince, Spellman will all be on the roster and a year older and assuming we get 3 1st rounders next year, we will still have $34 million to spend after the dust settles.  

So is it your contention that there is no way next year's team makes the playoffs?

This is a given and includes you don't think this year's team makes the playoffs either.

 

It has always been my stance that the process that they decided to yield to in this tank/rebuild will take at least 5 years to get to the point where the team was at when they decided to blow it up.

[thecampster]

Just now, KB21 said:

It has always been my stance that the process that they decided to yield to in this tank/rebuild will take at least 5 years to get to the point where the team was at when they decided to blow it up.

You've been dead on in over 1/2 of your predictions but I think you might consider this a buy in ante bet and not a cards face down ante bet.  Without knowing how A) the contracts of Baze and Plumlee shake out by the offseason next year (potential 31 million in moving capital), B) if the Hawks move any of their young wings in this offseason, C) if the Hawks move Dedmon and commit to Len (ie..how Len plays out), D) where they spend that original 34 million?

 

Think of it like this. Next year's cap is estimated to be $108 million.  The contracts of Plumlee, Baze, Bembry =$34 million next year. another $34 million is available via free agency. The Hawks have about $15 million in potential draft picks tied up as well (using my calculations).  $83 million of the cap for next year is unsettled out of $108 million.  76.8% of next year's cap is unsettled.....ie you don't know what 76.8% of next year's roster is.  I think its insanity to think you can prognosticate without 77% of the facts.

 

Now you may be right and again, you and I are both on record as being anti-tank. But that isn't what they seem set up for next year. The Hawks look solidly in the rebuild mode for next season (hence the ridiculous amount of moving parts/capital). You might want to rethink your position here.

 

Other wild cards to consider:  Bembry, Dorsey, Anderson. There is a dogfight shaping up for minutes between these 3. Bembry has consistent shown NBA ability (even starter ability) in every aspect of his game except for shooting outside 10 feet. Bembry (IMHO) is a Baze like player and has the athleticism to be better. I am thinking the time off may have done his some good.  If you could combine Anderson and Dorsey, you might have an allstar.  What Dorsey lacks defensively, Anderson lacks offensively.  It stands to reason that "one" of these players will step up and improve at the other end.  All you need is one of these to improve their limitations and it is on.  Again, they lost 24 games last year by 5 or less possessions and again (IMHO), Dennis is addition by subtraction here. They were not as bad as we thought and it is a matter of work ethic to whether or not they improve.

[KB21]

8 minutes ago, thecampster said:

You've been dead on in over 1/2 of your predictions but I think you might consider this a buy in ante bet and not a cards face down ante bet.  Without knowing how A) the contracts of Baze and Plumlee shake out by the offseason next year (potential 31 million in moving capital), B) if the Hawks move any of their young wings in this offseason, C) if the Hawks move Dedmon and commit to Len (ie..how Len plays out), D) where they spend that original 34 million?

 

Think of it like this. Next year's cap is estimated to be $108 million.  The contracts of Plumlee, Baze, Bembry =$34 million next year. another $34 million is available via free agency. The Hawks have about $15 million in potential draft picks tied up as well (using my calculations).  $83 million of the cap for next year is unsettled out of $108 million.  76.8% of next year's cap is unsettled.....ie you don't know what 76.8% of next year's roster is.  I think its insanity to think you can prognosticate without 77% of the facts.

 

Now you may be right and again, you and I are both on record as being anti-tank. But that isn't what they seem set up for next year. The Hawks look solidly in the rebuild mode for next season (hence the ridiculous amount of moving parts/capital). You might want to rethink your position here.

 

Other wild cards to consider:  Bembry, Dorsey, Anderson. There is a dogfight shaping up for minutes between these 3. Bembry has consistent shown NBA ability (even starter ability) in every aspect of his game except for shooting outside 10 feet. Bembry (IMHO) is a Baze like player and has the athleticism to be better. I am thinking the time off may have done his some good.  If you could combine Anderson and Dorsey, you might have an allstar.  What Dorsey lacks defensively, Anderson lacks offensively.  It stands to reason that "one" of these players will step up and improve at the other end.  All you need is one of these to improve their limitations and it is on.  Again, they lost 24 games last year by 5 or less possessions and again (IMHO), Dennis is addition by subtraction here. They were not as bad as we thought and it is a matter of work ethic to whether or not they improve.

I think the cap space the Hawks will have over the next two off seasons is essentially worthless unless they overpay on a mid to lower rung free agent who actually wants to get money rather than compete.  No legitimate top free agent option is going to consider coming to the Hawks.

The next two seasons will help ownership achieve their goals during this tank.  I believe they will keep the costs on the team low and ultimately divert the savings to Ressler's Gulch project.  I do not believe that the Hawks will add anyone that can help them win now over the next two off seasons.

[macdaddy]

Actually I think the young and upcoming teams have the second best chance at free agents behind actual contenders.   It's the middle of the road teams with aging vets that no one wants to go to.  Which is what we've had forever.   

[thecampster]

On 8/13/2018 at 4:53 PM, thecampster said:

You've been dead on in over 1/2 of your predictions but I think you might consider this a buy in ante bet and not a cards face down ante bet.  Without knowing how A) the contracts of Baze and Plumlee shake out by the offseason next year (potential 31 million in moving capital), B) if the Hawks move any of their young wings in this offseason, C) if the Hawks move Dedmon and commit to Len (ie..how Len plays out), D) where they spend that original 34 million?

 

Think of it like this. Next year's cap is estimated to be $108 million.  The contracts of Plumlee, Baze, Bembry =$34 million next year. another $34 million is available via free agency. The Hawks have about $15 million in potential draft picks tied up as well (using my calculations).  $83 million of the cap for next year is unsettled out of $108 million.  76.8% of next year's cap is unsettled.....ie you don't know what 76.8% of next year's roster is.  I think its insanity to think you can prognosticate without 77% of the facts.

 

Now you may be right and again, you and I are both on record as being anti-tank. But that isn't what they seem set up for next year. The Hawks look solidly in the rebuild mode for next season (hence the ridiculous amount of moving parts/capital). You might want to rethink your position here.

 

Other wild cards to consider:  Bembry, Dorsey, Anderson. There is a dogfight shaping up for minutes between these 3. Bembry has consistent shown NBA ability (even starter ability) in every aspect of his game except for shooting outside 10 feet. Bembry (IMHO) is a Baze like player and has the athleticism to be better. I am thinking the time off may have done his some good.  If you could combine Anderson and Dorsey, you might have an allstar.  What Dorsey lacks defensively, Anderson lacks offensively.  It stands to reason that "one" of these players will step up and improve at the other end.  All you need is one of these to improve their limitations and it is on.  Again, they lost 24 games last year by 5 or less possessions and again (IMHO), Dennis is addition by subtraction here. They were not as bad as we thought and it is a matter of work ethic to whether or not they improve.

Always scares me when national writers echo pretty much everything I said about "young players to consider". 

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2018/8/14/17679756/atlanta-hawks-roundtable-young-players-tyler-dorsey-kevin-huerter-omari-spellman-justin-anderson