Trae Young - The Man, The Viper, and The Prosecution aka The MVP aka Ice Trae

[AHF]

IMO, no one should use stats without combining that with watching the players play the game or vice versa.  If you are only going to do one, I'd say watch the games but you do yourself a disservice if you don't combine the two.  The move away from counting stats as the primary way to map value was a huge step in the right direction for the NBA.  

And I definitely agree with Jeff that any stats tied to on/off numbers have to be qualified with context to be truly valuable.  (By context here, I mean both what you see on the floor and other numbers as well.  An easy example is comparing DRTG between players on different teams.)  Comparing those numbers is a useless comparing of apples to oranges without accounting for context.  

[kg01]

34 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

You see it all the time when players switch teams and get into a different environment, with no real change in their skill level, but their advanced stats go up or down because who they're sharing the court with changes.  This even happens when players don't change teams but rotations change so their +/- and on/off stats shift because who they share the court with shifts (same team and opposing team).  And most of the comprehensive advanced stats are all anchored to on/off or +/- and then trying to adjust for what I'm talking about, which is not really possible in any fair way across all players on all teams.

For instance, look at the LEBRON stat for John Collins and it shows he got better when he moved to Utah.  Did he?  I don't see it, but that's what you'd see using that stat and imo it's because he was playing with worse teammates.  Trae looks like he became a worse player using the same stat because he was sharing the court with Dejounte Murray.  IMO Trae has been playing his best basketball the last half of the '22-23 season through the last season until he sat with injury.  So ultimately, you can write all the algorithms you want to create all kinds of difference statistics, but you still need to watch the players play the games to pair with the stats if you want to derive any kind of meaningful opinion.  So I look at basic box score stuff now (excluding +/-) and maybe a couple of the advanced stats (TS% for example) 

 

28 minutes ago, AHF said:

IMO, no one should use stats without combining that with watching the players play the game or vice versa.  If you are only going to do one, I'd say watch the games but you do yourself a disservice if you don't combine the two.  The move away from counting stats as the primary way to map value was a huge step in the right direction for the NBA.  

And I definitely agree with Jeff that any stats tied to on/off numbers have to be qualified with context to be truly valuable.  (By context here, I mean both what you see on the floor and other numbers as well.  An easy example is comparing DRTG between players on different teams.)  Comparing those numbers is a useless comparing of apples to oranges without accounting for context.  

Man, I wish I could take back all the awful things I've written about you two on the squawk bathroom walls.

Ah well,nobody's got enough white paint to cover all that up.

 

[Wretch]

4 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Yeah, even the most honest-intended metrics are still biased to some degree.  Like all these "LEBRON" and "RAPTOR" and whatever stats.  They run all the math through the algorithms then based on the results, tweak the formulas.  There is no source of actual truth that isn't subjective, so it all becomes a way for people to push their opinions in a way that appeals to data-driven fans.  This is why the older I get, the more I prefer basic stats combined with eye test.  And defense is pretty much just eye test.  You really need to watch players play a lot of minutes to get good opinions on them.  I don't even trust my own judgement with how limited a sample size I get of non-Hawks players, with the exception of guys who show up 20 times a year on national TV.

I can't put enough likes on this.

[Spud2nique]

Uhhhh 25th? Yeaaaa noooo. King of dimes is 25th? Lame .

 

[Wretch]

12 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Uhhhh 25th? Yeaaaa noooo. King of dimes is 25th? Lame .

 

I mean, if only Trae could dunk...he would move up at least 10 spots.  It ain't like he doesn't know this either so, no excuses. 

[benhillboy]

On 8/19/2024 at 1:24 PM, AHF said:

IMO, no one should use stats without combining that with watching the players play the game or vice versa.  If you are only going to do one, I'd say watch the games but you do yourself a disservice if you don't combine the two.  The move away from counting stats as the primary way to map value was a huge step in the right direction for the NBA.  

And I definitely agree with Jeff that any stats tied to on/off numbers have to be qualified with context to be truly valuable.  (By context here, I mean both what you see on the floor and other numbers as well.  An easy example is comparing DRTG between players on different teams.)  Comparing those numbers is a useless comparing of apples to oranges without accounting for context.  

I always compare +/-, 100 possession on/off, ratings, etc to the team construct and a player’s career first before trying to draw any league-wide analysis, no doubt.  I just wish there wasn’t so much dismissal of the metric amongst knowledgeable fans.  
 

+/- is a regular box score column for official NBA and FIBA games.  Dismissing it is akin to throwing points and rebounds away.  It’s a given that the players on both sides affect values and averages.  Is DeRozan gonna drop more on Bogi or Dyson’s head?  Is Clint gonna pile up offensive boards on Gobert the same as Poetl?  I don’t know why variables are the go-to argument against it.  Variables that are mitigated more and more as a player accumulates games and rotation minutes.

Single-game +/-, sure, flush it down the toilet with all the crazy outliers you see.  But over the course of a season, or even a long playoff run, the sh*t checks out.  It’s quite obvious to me how Jokic has dominated the metric for high usage hub players (and boosted it for all his suspect teammates by limiting their weaknesses) and Derrick White for off ball defenders the past few years.

Edited August 22 by benhillboy

[Spud2nique]

4 hours ago, Wretch said:

I mean, if only Trae could dunk...he would move up at least 10 spots.  It ain't like he doesn't know this either so, no excuses. 

Luka LAYUNKS!!! That’s worse he’s 7 feet tall I heard he grew this summer!  

4 hours ago, Wretch said:

I mean, if only Trae could dunk...he would move up at least 10 spots.  It ain't like he doesn't know this either so, no excuses. 

Jaylen Brown at 16! Some folks just straight up HATE.  

[noble]

7 hours ago, Wretch said:

I mean, if only Trae could dunk...he would move up at least 10 spots.  It ain't like he doesn't know this either so, no excuses. 

Or play defense even at league average. 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

[RedDawg#8]

20 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

Yet another example of why Trae Young isn’t an off ball player and won’t magically transform in to Steph Curry just because people think that’s his archetype.

Shooting above 40% on threes after pounding the air out of the ball proves making him run around to get open looks won’t increase his efficiency.

The best defenses do everything in their power to get the ball out of Trae’s hands. They know something.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Yet another example of why Trae Young isn’t an off ball player and won’t magically transform in to Steph Curry just because people think that’s his archetype.

Shooting above 40% on threes after pounding the air out of the ball proves making him run around to get open looks won’t increase his efficiency.

The best defenses do everything in their power to get the ball out of Trae’s hands. They know something.

In fairness, giving him open looks has been death on defenses historically too.  But that is surprisingly efficient on heavy dribbling.  I wouldn’t have expected it to be that good.  Would definitely want to see a larger sample (past 3 years) but hopefully he keeps it up.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

2:08 for those who are interested in reliving that nice play.

[Spud2nique]

 

[JayBirdHawk]

18 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

 

Should really be first player to average 25/10a for two consecutive years since_________????

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Should really be first player to average 25/10a for two consecutive years since_________????

Westbrook?

[JayBirdHawk]

9 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Westbrook?

Thanks.

2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons.

[hawkman]

On 9/2/2024 at 9:16 AM, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

I love his commitment to getting better during the offseason(s). "Motor" is not something we should take for granted, especially for a player already earning the max. He prepares for the next season like a player that wants to take his game and his team to the next level. We need to appreciate that because that's not the norm. He also needs to keep the beard for '24-'25.