[Winter 2020] Woj Rumor: Drummmmmnd to ATL talks happening

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

Depends how you look at it. What are the odds we pick three starters in the late first round in back to back to back seasons? That never happens lol. 

Nobody hits all the time, but some GMs are much better at it than others.

Example:

Spurs

1999 Manu Ginobili

2001 Tony Parker

2002 Luis Scola

2003 Leandro Barbosa (traded)

2004 Beno Udrih (>800 games played)

2005 Ian Manhini (~600 games played)

2006 No real pick

2007 Tiago Splitter

2008 George Hill (traded for Kawhi Leonard)

 

Lots and lots of value from those mid to late picks on a pretty consistent basis for the Spurs.

 

Counter examples:  Stan Kasten and Pete Babcock's combined careers

 

We've got a GM who gives me hope on these types of assets.

[thecampster]

"

Who are the Top 5 most likely landing spots for Andre Drummond? James Edwards: Atlanta, Dallas (who could use a physical big man next to Porzingis and him and Porzingis are friends), Toronto (I’ve heard Masai has liked him for a long time and obviously, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka are both expiring contracts; him and Kyle Lowry are friends), people say Boston, just because they think they need the center, but I don’t see that one working.

 

3 hours ago – via Warriors All 82"

 

From Hoopshype rumors

[TheNorthCydeRises]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

Nobody hits all the time, but some GMs are much better at it than others.

Example:

Spurs

1999 Manu Ginobili

2001 Tony Parker

2002 Luis Scola

2003 Leandro Barbosa (traded)

2004 Beno Udrih (>800 games played)

2005 Ian Manhini (~600 games played)

2006 No real pick

2007 Tiago Splitter

2008 George Hill (traded for Kawhi Leonard)

 

Lots and lots of value from those mid to late picks on a pretty consistent basis for the Spurs.

 

Counter examples:  Stan Kasten and Pete Babcock's combined careers

 

We've got a GM who gives me hope on these types of assets.

Once again . . .

Atlanta Hawks non lottery 1st round picks since 1989:  

• 1989 - Roy Marble ( 23rd )
• 1991 - Anthony Avent ( 15th ) . . . traded draft night to Milwaukee and got Blair Rassmussen ( via Denver )
• 1993 - Doug Edwards ( 15th )
• 1995 - Alan Henderson ( 16th ) . . . later traded to acquire Tony Delk and Antoine Walker
• 1996 - Priest Lauderdale ( 28th )
• 1997 - Ed Gray ( 22nd )
• 1998 - Roshown McLeod ( 20th )
• 1999 - Cal Bowdler ( 17th ) -  Dion Glover ( 20th ) - Jumaine Joines ( 27th  . . from Philly )

 

• 2003 - Boris Diaw ( 21st ) . . . later traded, along with the pick that ended up being Rajon Rondo, to acquire Joe Johnson
• 2004 - Josh Smith ( 17th )
• 2009 - Jeff Teague ( 19th ) . . . later traded to acquire Taurean Prince
• 2010 - Damion James ( 24th ) . . . traded draft night to New Jersey for Tibor Pleib and Jordan "True Baller" Crawford
• 2012 - John Jenkins ( 23rd )
• 2013 - Dennis Schröder ( 17th ) - Shane Larkin ( 18th ) . . . traded + cash to Dallas for Jared Cunningham, Mike Muscala, and Lucas "Bebe" Nogueira 

 

• 2014 - Adreian Payne ( 15th ) . . . later traded to acquire Kevin Huerter
• 2015 - Kelly Oubre ( 15th ) . . .  traded draft night to Washington in a 3-way deal, to acquire Tim Hardaway Jr
• 2016 - DeAndre' Bembry ( 21st ) 
• 2017 - John Collins ( 17th )
• 2018 - Kevin Huerter ( 19th ) - Omari Spelman ( 30th ) . . . later traded to acquire Damian Jones

 

Let's see.

• Hendu was decent player for a few years
• Diaw developed after he left Atlanta
• Josh Smith was a borderline All-Star
• Jeff Teague was an All-Star ( only based off of the 2014-15 win streak )
• Dennis Schröder has turned into a good 6th MOY candidate
• Oubre has developed nicely, despite his former team ( WAS ) giving up on him after 4 years
• John Collins looks to be an All-Star in the near future

So that's about a 35% success rate of a mid/late 1st round pick even becoming a decent player for you.  Mid 1st round picks shouldn't be counted on for team building.  They should be used to acquire talent in a trade, or 

[Atlantaholic]

5 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm not saying or advocating for doing it...I'm just saying it can happen.

Fair enough, though I don't think the Clippers situation is completely analogous to ours. Clips had certain expectations when re-signing Griffin and the team had fallen drastically short of them by the time the trade happened, couple that with the enormous red flags with Griffin's health, and the move is justifiable. Now, not sayint It was not dirty move by the Clips, but the context around the move is different.

Imagine being a last place team and having to convince the top Free Agent in the market to join your team. Actually go through the conversations our owner would have to have with Drummond and his agent in order to sway him to sign and come play for Atlanta. Selling him on the team, our plan, the city and the his place in the future of our rebuild... then a few months later you send him packing to a city, team, and future he had never agreed to be part of. That's the type of stuff future free agents will hold over our heads for many, many years if we ever get on the negotiating table with them. 

[Atlantaholic]

1 minute ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Once again . . .

Atlanta Hawks non lottery 1st round picks since 1989:  

• 1989 - Roy Marble ( 23rd )
• 1991 - Anthony Avent ( 15th ) . . . traded draft night to Milwaukee and got Blair Rassmussen ( via Denver )
• 1993 - Doug Edwards ( 15th )
• 1995 - Alan Henderson ( 16th ) . . . later traded to acquire Tony Delk and Antoine Walker
• 1996 - Priest Lauderdale ( 28th )
• 1997 - Ed Gray ( 22nd )
• 1998 - Roshown McLeod ( 20th )
• 1999 - Cal Bowdler ( 17th ) -  Dion Glover ( 20th ) - Jumaine Joines ( 27th  . . from Philly )

 

• 2003 - Boris Diaw ( 21st ) . . . later traded, along with the pick that ended up being Rajon Rondo, to acquire Joe Johnson
• 2004 - Josh Smith ( 17th )
• 2009 - Jeff Teague ( 19th ) . . . later traded to acquire Taurean Prince
• 2010 - Damion James ( 24th ) . . . traded draft night to New Jersey for Tibor Pleib and Jordan "True Baller" Crawford
• 2012 - John Jenkins ( 23rd )
• 2013 - Dennis Schröder ( 17th ) - Shane Larkin ( 18th ) . . . traded + cash to Dallas for Jared Cunningham, Mike Muscala, and Lucas "Bebe" Nogueira 

 

• 2014 - Adreian Payne ( 15th ) . . . later traded to acquire Kevin Huerter
• 2015 - Kelly Oubre ( 15th ) . . .  traded draft night to Washington in a 3-way deal, to acquire Tim Hardaway Jr
• 2016 - DeAndre' Bembry ( 21st ) 
• 2017 - John Collins ( 17th )
• 2018 - Kevin Huerter ( 19th ) - Omari Spelman ( 30th ) . . . later traded to acquire Damian Jones

 

Let's see.

• Hendu was decent player for a few years
• Diaw developed after he left Atlanta
• Josh Smith was a borderline All-Star
• Jeff Teague was an All-Star ( only based off of the 2014-15 win streak )
• Dennis Schröder has turned into a good 6th MOY candidate
• Oubre has developed nicely, despite his former team ( WAS ) giving up on him after 4 years
• John Collins looks to be an All-Star in the near future

So that's about a 35% success rate of a mid/late 1st round pick even becoming a decent player for you.  Mid 1st round picks shouldn't be counted on for team building.  They should be used to acquire talent in a trade, or 

yes, but if all we are getting is Drummond for 4 months we come out on the losing end of that exchgange more often than not. That's the big question mark. If we can get Drummond for longer then it probably makes sense. Probably. (hopefully)

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Once again . . .

Atlanta Hawks non lottery 1st round picks since 1989:  

• 1989 - Roy Marble ( 23rd )
• 1991 - Anthony Avent ( 15th ) . . . traded draft night to Milwaukee and got Blair Rassmussen ( via Denver )
• 1993 - Doug Edwards ( 15th )
• 1995 - Alan Henderson ( 16th ) . . . later traded to acquire Tony Delk and Antoine Walker
• 1996 - Priest Lauderdale ( 28th )
• 1997 - Ed Gray ( 22nd )
• 1998 - Roshown McLeod ( 20th )
• 1999 - Cal Bowdler ( 17th ) -  Dion Glover ( 20th ) - Jumaine Joines ( 27th  . . from Philly )

 

• 2003 - Boris Diaw ( 21st ) . . . later traded, along with the pick that ended up being Rajon Rondo, to acquire Joe Johnson
• 2004 - Josh Smith ( 17th )
• 2009 - Jeff Teague ( 19th ) . . . later traded to acquire Taurean Prince
• 2010 - Damion James ( 24th ) . . . traded draft night to New Jersey for Tibor Pleib and Jordan "True Baller" Crawford
• 2012 - John Jenkins ( 23rd )
• 2013 - Dennis Schröder ( 17th ) - Shane Larkin ( 18th ) . . . traded + cash to Dallas for Jared Cunningham, Mike Muscala, and Lucas "Bebe" Nogueira 

 

• 2014 - Adreian Payne ( 15th ) . . . later traded to acquire Kevin Huerter
• 2015 - Kelly Oubre ( 15th ) . . .  traded draft night to Washington in a 3-way deal, to acquire Tim Hardaway Jr
• 2016 - DeAndre' Bembry ( 21st ) 
• 2017 - John Collins ( 17th )
• 2018 - Kevin Huerter ( 19th ) - Omari Spelman ( 30th ) . . . later traded to acquire Damian Jones

 

Let's see.

• Hendu was decent player for a few years
• Diaw developed after he left Atlanta
• Josh Smith was a borderline All-Star
• Jeff Teague was an All-Star ( only based off of the 2014-15 win streak )
• Dennis Schröder has turned into a good 6th MOY candidate
• Oubre has developed nicely, despite his former team ( WAS ) giving up on him after 4 years
• John Collins looks to be an All-Star in the near future

So that's about a 35% success rate of a mid/late 1st round pick even becoming a decent player for you.  Mid 1st round picks shouldn't be counted on for team building.  They should be used to acquire talent in a trade, or 

If you think all GMs are the same, then I agree.   But I don't.  You are looking at arguably the worst collection of GMs in NBA history at drafting and trying to lump their failures onto Schlenk who has already been very successful.  Bad way to look at it, IMO.  I don't think what Pete Babcock did influences what Schlenk will do.

 

It cannot be understated how important it is who your GM is for looking at your odds of being successful in the draft.  Some guys are wastes of space and likely to utterly waste draft resources.  Some guys are very talented at finding promising players in the draft.

I am currently putting Schlenk in that latter category because I saw his pick of Trae as a risk move and his picks of JC and Huerter as huge successes.  Too early for me to conclude anything on this draft but early signs are a mixed bag of promise and struggles.

[Atlantaholic]

Just now, AHF said:

If you think all GMs are the same, then I agree.   But I don't.  You are looking at arguably the worst collection of GMs in NBA history at drafting and trying to lump their failures onto Schlenk who has already been very successful.  Bad way to look at it, IMO.  I don't think what Pete Babcock did influences what Schlenk will do.

Yea, looking at the past is not the best indicator with this team lol. Though I will say that if you go through the history of pick 17s for example, there isn't a whole lot of slam dunks in there. The only one that is hands down, no doubt about it, better than Drummond is probably Shawn Kemp.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

8 minutes ago, thecampster said:

"

Who are the Top 5 most likely landing spots for Andre Drummond? James Edwards: Atlanta, Dallas (who could use a physical big man next to Porzingis and him and Porzingis are friends), Toronto (I’ve heard Masai has liked him for a long time and obviously, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka are both expiring contracts; him and Kyle Lowry are friends), people say Boston, just because they think they need the center, but I don’t see that one working.

 

3 hours ago – via Warriors All 82"

 

From Hoopshype rumors

If Dallas gets Drummond, you can consider them a SERIOUS contender for winning a ring.

That could turn Luka into an even more dominant offensive player.  With Drummond in the middle, he wouldn't have to expend energy going back to the rim and grabbing a rebound.  He'd then become the outlet pass receiver, and could put all kinds of pressure on opposing defense if he can get the ball without having to go 94 feet.

Most of all, A Drummond - Porzingis frontline makes them just as big as the LA Lakers frontline.  The x-factor in that matchup is still Lebron, but it takes some of the pressure off of Luka having to make all of the plays.

So no crying from Hawks fans, if Drummond ends up being the player that gets Luka his ring before Trae.

[Atlantaholic]

18 minutes ago, AHF said:

Nobody hits all the time, but some GMs are much better at it than others.

Example:

Spurs

1999 Manu Ginobili

2001 Tony Parker

2002 Luis Scola

2003 Leandro Barbosa (traded)

2004 Beno Udrih (>800 games played)

2005 Ian Manhini (~600 games played)

2006 No real pick

2007 Tiago Splitter

2008 George Hill (traded for Kawhi Leonard)

 

Lots and lots of value from those mid to late picks on a pretty consistent basis for the Spurs.

 

Counter examples:  Stan Kasten and Pete Babcock's combined careers

 

We've got a GM who gives me hope on these types of assets.

I will argue some of those players were good because they played for the Spurs. We drafted Diaw and he was a bust... until he played in San Antonio. Would a Scola, Barbosa, Udrih, Manhini or Splitter have success under LP the way they did with Pops?

 

[JayBirdHawk]

7 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Once again . . .

Atlanta Hawks non lottery 1st round picks since 1989:

BEFORE SCHLENK:  

• 1989 - Roy Marble ( 23rd )
• 1991 - Anthony Avent ( 15th ) . . . traded draft night to Milwaukee and got Blair Rassmussen ( via Denver )
• 1993 - Doug Edwards ( 15th )
• 1995 - Alan Henderson ( 16th ) . . . later traded to acquire Tony Delk and Antoine Walker
• 1996 - Priest Lauderdale ( 28th )
• 1997 - Ed Gray ( 22nd )
• 1998 - Roshown McLeod ( 20th )
• 1999 - Cal Bowdler ( 17th ) -  Dion Glover ( 20th ) - Jumaine Joines ( 27th  . . from Philly )

 

• 2003 - Boris Diaw ( 21st ) . . . later traded, along with the pick that ended up being Rajon Rondo, to acquire Joe Johnson
• 2004 - Josh Smith ( 17th )
• 2009 - Jeff Teague ( 19th ) . . . later traded to acquire Taurean Prince
• 2010 - Damion James ( 24th ) . . . traded draft night to New Jersey for Tibor Pleib and Jordan "True Baller" Crawford
• 2012 - John Jenkins ( 23rd )
• 2013 - Dennis Schröder ( 17th ) - Shane Larkin ( 18th ) . . . traded + cash to Dallas for Jared Cunningham, Mike Muscala, and Lucas "Bebe" Nogueira 

 

• 2014 - Adreian Payne ( 15th ) . . . later traded to acquire Kevin Huerter
• 2015 - Kelly Oubre ( 15th ) . . .  traded draft night to Washington in a 3-way deal, to acquire Tim Hardaway Jr
• 2016 - DeAndre' Bembry ( 21st ) 

 

AFTER SCHLENK:

• 2017 - John Collins ( 17th )
• 2018 - Kevin Huerter ( 19th ) - Omari Spelman ( 30th ) . . . later traded to acquire Damian Jones

 

Fixed it for you.

You are using the saying 'The sins of the Father's visited on the Son'.

Not on this one!

[Atlantaholic]

3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

If Dallas gets Drummond, you can consider them a SERIOUS contender for winning a ring.

That could turn Luka into an even more dominant offensive player.  With Drummond in the middle, he wouldn't have to expend energy going back to the rim and grabbing a rebound.  He'd then become the outlet pass receiver, and could put all kinds of pressure on opposing defense if he can get the ball without having to go 94 feet.

Most of all, A Drummond - Porzingis frontline makes them just as big as the LA Lakers frontline.  The x-factor in that matchup is still Lebron, but it takes some of the pressure off of Luka having to make all of the plays.

So no crying from Hawks fans, if Drummond ends up being the player that gets Luka his ring before Trae.

Dallas is #1 (!) in the NBA in offensive rating. They are already contenders, and yes adding Drummond would make them better on defense. I will say though, getting Drummond so that Dallas can't have him has to be the absolute worst reason to get him. 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Atlantaholic said:

Yea, looking at the past is not the best indicator with this team lol. Though I will say that if you go through the history of pick 17s for example, there isn't a whole lot of slam dunks in there. The only one that is hands down, no doubt about it, better than Drummond is probably Shawn Kemp.

Drafting a player is only one way those picks can be valuable, though.  Trading for James Harden involved two #12 overall picks, trading for Anthony Davis involved two late first round picks (Josh Hart and LA's 2021 pick), trading for Kawhi Leonard involved the #29 overall pick; trading for Russell Westbrook involved a top 20 protected pick), trading for Lamarcus Aldridge involved the #22 overall pick, etc. etc.

[Thomas]

Just now, Atlantaholic said:

Dallas is #1 (!) in the NBA in offensive rating. They are already contenders, and yes adding Drummond would make them better on defense. I will say though, getting Drummond so that Dallas can't have him has to be the absolute worst reason to get him. 

Memories of Jon Kontract right there. The Pistons are still laughing.

[Atlantaholic]

Just now, AHF said:

Drafting a player is only one way those picks can be valuable, though.  Trading for James Harden involved two #12 overall picks, trading for Anthony Davis involved two late first round picks (Josh Hart and LA's 2021 pick), trading for Kawhi Leonard involved the #29 overall pick; trading for Russell Westbrook involved a top 20 protected pick), trading for Lamarcus Aldridge involved the #22 overall pick, etc. etc.

Hey, I agree with that. But also, how likely are we to make a blockbuster deal for a superstar atm? After this summer we no longer have that pick. Is Drummond the best we can get from here until then? It may be the case. 

[Spud2nique]

49 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

That's unfortunately not how things work. If we re-sign Drummond it is to keep him

Wait, you’re saying that if we sign him to a contract this summer that we can’t flip him a few months later with other assets for the ones we want? 

[Atlantaholic]

Just now, Spud2nique said:

Wait, you’re saying that if we sign him to a contract this summer that we can’t flip him a few months later with other assets for the ones we want? 

I'm saying we can do that, but it would be a bad move for the Atlanta Hawks brand in the face of future free agents. We aren't the team that can afford to back stab free agents like Boston or LA. We are a last place team that will have to sell themselves to Drummond to get him to come here. Further elaborations on this point can be found on ealrier posts I made in this thread.

[Spud2nique]

50 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

He gets to face him tonight.

Oh that’s riiiiiight. He’s been doing really well lately. I know he did well in his first start ever and the second game as well I think. I remember he had a high fg% in both if I’m not mistaken. I’m still weary of his back but he plays a nice smooth game. Looking forward to watching him a bit tonight.

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

I will argue some of those players were good because they played for the Spurs. We drafted Diaw and he was a bust... until he played in San Antonio. Would a Scola, Barbosa, Udrih, Manhini or Splitter have success under LP the way they did with Pops?

 

I would say Scola and Barbosa's careers would have turned out exactly as they did without playing in SA since they never played there and were instead flipped in other trades.  Mahinmi has enjoyed the best seasons of his career outside of SA.  

Udrih played another 6 years after leaving SA and put up better numbers than our backup PGs have done in recent years.  Splitter fell apart physically but I think he was solid enough to keep doing what he had done for them if he hadn't been injury ruined.  In limited minutes his last season, he put up 18.5 pp36 and 10.4 rp36 which would have both been career highs.  (SSS warning)

[sturt]

Feels safe to say we have about one month before this thread will possibly be relevant.

[Spud2nique]

52 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

When people say the NBA is a business...it really is...Clippers resigned Blake to a big monster deal and traded him midway thru the 1st season. 

Dedmon and Love took the big paydays now they want out.

Philly (fans) wants to trade Horford after overpaying him that 4 year deal, he's also griping about his role on the team.

What's good for the gander is good for the goose.

Just saying!

(He'd be eligible to be traded Dec 15th)

This.