The world according to WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

[NBASupes]

WAR is very interesting. I feel it tells a MASSIVE story on your success or lack thereof. Probably my favorite new (to the NBA) stat out there with the RAPTOR

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

I'll explain: 

Look at the Memphis Grizzlies: They have only one player with a negative or net neutral WAR. This means everyone they put on the court produces. Even if they play a small role, they are effective at it. Now the downside is they have no player at 3 or better. Meaning, this is just a deep team full of role players. They excel on offense and while they aren't decent defensively, they are bearable. Ja Morant is a special rookie and the data is extremely impressive for a rookie in general. 

Next case study: LA Clippers: They have disappointed to many so what's their problem? They have six players with a neutral to negative WAR. That's insanely high. For example, the two worst teams in the NBA, the Warriors and Hawks have 6 (GS) and 9 (ATL). This is insanely high for anyone much less what should be a contender. The positives is they have four players with over 3 WAR and a superstar with a over 5 WAR which is All Star level so far. No one is performing at a MVP level on this team right now but this team strongly feels they can just turn on a switch and be a contender like that. I don't know how possible that is. If I was them, I would be looking at potential upgrades but they traded all of their assets for this squad. Ugh!

Washington Wizards: Interesting team because their starters are absolutely some of the worst players who get big minutes in the NBA but their bench as effective as anyone's. Bertans has a rare over 3 for a bench player which is what we consider a bench star. A bench superstar is someone like Harrell. After that, you have two players with just above 1. Only one is a starter, Beal. After that, you have 8 players with a positive or neutral WAR. Insane! Add the other two, that's 10 players with a better than negative WAR. So why do they suck? The bench alone should win games. The other starters are mostly awful. Rui is the worst starter in the NBA. IT0 is the worst starting PG in the NBA. Beal has the highest volatility in the NBA. Mahiami is largely ineffective as a starter while Bryant was really ineffective. Overall, it's easy to see why this team is bad when they are so good. They have one of the best benches but the worst starting unit in the NBA. 

 

Lastly, US! 

The Hawks are the 2nd worst team in the NBA and it's clear to see why. While teams like Dallas have NO negative contributors (sans Lee), Atlanta has nine. Even worse is they litter the worst starters and bench list more than ANY other team. 

The Good: 

7 players have positive contributions (6 if you do not count Goodwin). Of those seven, Trae Young has a WAR over 4 which is pace for borderline All-Star status but once the trades happen, expect Young to get in All Star range. In the RAPTOR, Trae is in the top 10 and one of only eight with a Offensive RAPTOR over 6. Considering the quality of the team, Trae could have a massive 2nd half as he did his rookie year. 

John Collins while having a disappointing offensive season so far, is on pace to have a massive defensive year. Ranked the 28th best defensive RAPTOR in the NBA. Collins has played a critical role in our defensive efficiency being moved up to 25th. 

Brandon Goodwin has made a tremendous defensive impact. While offensively, Goodwin value hasn't shown up in impact as much as it has the eye test, his defense which clearly passes the eye test says he is our most impactful defender. Once he constantly hits shots, Goodwin could be our De'Anthony Melton who is an elite 3rd PG. Not quite good enough for great backup play but as a 3rd PG, he's special. Goodwin has earned a contract, even if we bring in another PG to be the backup. He shown he can play on and off the ball like Melton. 

Jabari Parker was a steal for us. On a bad team, he is giving us a near 1 and started for most of the season. He's been a nice story so far even if his impact has declined lately. 

The Bad: 

9 players with a negative WAR. Meaning, anytime they step on the court, they have a better chance at hurting you than helping you. Ouch. Now it's expected for the two rookies. Of rookies who play more than 574 mins and are from the 2019 NBA Draft class: 

Only six have a positive WAR, three have a positive RAPTOR and of those three who have a positive RAPTOR, none are under the age of 22. So it's not a suprise that we have two who are currently rocking negative WAR. Cam at -.8 and Hunter at -1.2. 

Kevin got off to an extremely rough start due to injuries and terrible defense but he's been on a tear in Jan and soon to be neutral WAR wise. 

Our vets have played reserve mins and been awful. They have been absolute failures for us. 

The bench has been insanely awful, it's no wonder why we are the worst team in the NBA. Our saving grace right now is Golden State barely has a player above 1.5 WAR. It's been an awful season for them even if they have a clearly better squad over all. While things have improved of late for the rookies, Kevin, Collins, and Trae. This season has been the Trae Young Show and nothing else for awhile. 

Considering the roles and responsibilities of our wings, I expect them to have an excellent 2nd season for their expectations. Heck, I expected a great 2nd half for their current expectations of the season. 

Questions? 

[REHawksFan]

I could literally spend hours looking at that sortable matrix and playing around with it. Fascinating stuff. 

I don't have question but do have several comments. First, it amazes me how many PG-role players are worse defensively than Trae. I count 16 players in the PG role that they say are worse than Trae defensively. These players include the likes of Jeff Teague (League worst!?!), D'Angelo Russell, Devin Booker, Kyrie Irving, Lou Williams, Austin Rivers, and Spencer Dinwiddie.  How is that even possible? 

Also of note: How about Brandon Goodwin's defense?  Ranks T6 among PG role players, tied with Patrick Beverly. Impressive stuff though admittedly over a small sample size.

Similarly impressive is John Collins ranking 9th defensively among PF-role players.  He's also one of the worst offensive PF-role players in the league, which is counter-intuitive. 

Finally, when sorting the entire NBA to show only the Year 1-4 players, the Top 2 players in WAR are Luka and Trae. Luka has a wide advantage currently, but IF Trae could just play neutral defense similar to Luka the 2 of them would be lapping the field. As it is, Trae's defense is keeping him out of the MVP type level WAR. 

Edited January 16, 2020 by REHawksFan

[NBASupes]

15 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I could literally spend hours looking at that sortable matrix and playing around with it. Fascinating stuff. 

I don't have question but do have several comments. First, it amazes me how many PG-role players are worse defensively than Trae. I count 16 players in the PG role that they say are worse than Trae defensively. These players include the likes of Jeff Teague (League worst!?!), D'Angelo Russell, Devin Booker, Kyrie Irving, Lou Williams, Austin Rivers, and Spencer Dinwiddie.  How is that even possible? 

Also of note: How about Brandon Goodwin's defense?  Ranks T6 among PG role players, tied with Patrick Beverly. Impressive stuff though admittedly over a small sample size.

Similarly impressive is John Collins ranking 9th defensively among PF-role players.  He's also one of the worst offensive PF-role players in the league, which is counter-intuitive. 

Finally, when sorting the entire NBA to show only the Year 1-4 players, the Top 2 players in WAR are Luka and Trae. Luka has a wide advantage currently, but IF Trae could just play neutral defense similar to Luka the 2 of them would be lapping the field. As it is, Trae's defense is keeping him out of the MVP type level WAR. 

Agreed. The biggest issue with Trae's defense is he has to be protected. That's why his defense has skyrocketed with Cam/Hunter/Collins in the lineup. The reason why Collins offense has been so bad this year is earlier in the season he was playing next to Len, came back and next to Jones and Bruno. Now that he is at the 5, his offense has been more steady in general. 

Trae gets a lot of flack defensively and at times, rightfully so. But he is extremely active and he is laterally quick enough. He will never be a defensive stopper and I wish wouldn't die so much on screens but he's not as bad as everyone keeps saying this season. Last year, he was the worst defender. Two things that are so far, untrue is Cam Reddish is the worst NBA starter and NBA player and Trae is the worst NBA defender. Cam is far from the worst NBA player and as a NBA starter, he is not good but he is better than several rookies in this class. At the end of the day, his defense is rotational and excellent for a rookie. He has legit value right now and he is one of the most improved player since NOV where he had the worst RAPTOR in the NBA for a starter. 

People need to give him time to figure it out offensively because defensively, he's damn good right now. You literally got Rui and Garland who is twice as bad as Reddish. 

If you looked at the stats, you notice, very few rookies wings even play that much. For Matisse's hype, he plays like half the minutes Hunter plays. Right now, Barrett is having the most success. His -.4 WAR and negative on both sides RAPTOR speaks volume. 

Don't worry about the rookies, they are playing some of the toughest roles in Basketball and not being completely awful at it like Sexton or Knox did last year.