Official Game Thread: Magic at Hawks

[JayBirdHawk]

55 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

lol . . . ** CRICKETS **

 

It's been like this all year folks. Some of you just aren't deep diving into the stats. 

It's the same effect that Thabo Sefolosha had on the 2015 team, and why when he went down, the historic level of play went with him. 

I don't...

 

Stats.

[RedDawg#8]

54 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

lol . . . ** CRICKETS **

 

It's been like this all year folks. Some of you just aren't deep diving into the stats. 

It's the same effect that Thabo Sefolosha had on the 2015 team, and why when he went down, the historic level of play went with him. 

 

 

I havent looked or dived in to this, Im not even sure which player or agenda this supports, YET.

But I will say I agree with the part about Thabo. I was a huge believer in his impact that year. We simply did not look the same after he went down. Yeah we were resting guys down the stretch, but the dominant level of play never returned for any stretch of Bud's tenure after that. Thabo and DMC combined were a nightmare defensively.

[RedDawg#8]

Bruno, I see. Got it. Everyone plays well with Bruno, except Cam for some reason. 

Seems like, of the players still on our roster, our best lineups involve the core 5 + Bruno/Dedmon in some combination.

So last nights starting 5 of Young, Huerter, Hunter, Collins, Bruno should be the main starters, with Cam subbing in for Bruno for our next best group, then at some point making sure Teague and Bruno are on the floor together as well. Seems legit. 

I wonder how far this takes off with Capela in the mix. Have Capela with the starters, then Cam or Bruno become the first subs in to the game depending on need. 

Seems like our main rotation is taking shape. Just have to add some specialists around them

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

18 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

I havent looked or dived in to this, Im not even sure which player or agenda this supports, YET.

But I will say I agree with the part about Thabo. I was a huge believer in his impact that year. We simply did not look the same after he went down. Yeah we were resting guys down the stretch, but the dominant level of play never returned for any stretch of Bud's tenure after that. Thabo and DMC combined were a nightmare defensively.

 

I was a non-believer in Thabo at first, because he had shot so terrible at OKC. I didn't see any sense in the signing, even if he was an upgrade in defense.

But whenever he played, things seemed to either stabilize or get dramatically better.  And it didn't matter who he was playing with.   Sort out Thabo's lineups by Pts.  It's amazing that a bench guy could have that type of impact on the cohesiveness of a team.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sefolth01/lineups/2015

 

In the NBA season, the guy who has that "Thabo effect", is Alex Caruso of the Lakers.  BBallBreakdown even did a video on him,

 

 

The "poor man's" version of Thabo for the Hawks this year, is ( insert my avatar here ).

He's the only guy on the Hawks that has a ( + ) number per 100 possessions with all 4 of our current starters, plus Teague ( who willingly gives him the ball in the post ), and Vince Carter.  His number with Reddish is horrible, mainly due to Cam's early season struggles.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

5 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Bruno, I see. Got it. Everyone plays well with Bruno, except Cam for some reason. 

Seems like, of the players still on our roster, our best lineups involve the core 5 + Bruno/Dedmon in some combination.

So last nights starting 5 of Young, Huerter, Hunter, Collins, Bruno should be the main starters, with Cam subbing in for Bruno for our next best group, then at some point making sure Teague and Bruno are on the floor together as well. Seems legit. 

I wonder how far this takes off with Capela in the mix. Have Capela with the starters, then Cam or Bruno become the first subs in to the game depending on need. 

Seems like our main rotation is taking shape. Just have to add some specialists around them

 

I think Dedmon in the starting lineup would be fine, if he didn't overdo it and foul so much.  

The big thing to take away from Bruno playing, is that when paired with another big, and not being the only big on the floor, the Hawks tend to play better.

That;s why Pierce needs to scrap the small lineup, unless those guys are just lighting it up from 3

[AHF]

5 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

When you look at the 2-man lineups of each player, I wonder which guy our "Core 5" plays best with.   Sort these 2-man lineups by points, seeing that's the main stat that successful lineups are based off of.

 

Reddish:  https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/reddica01/lineups/2020

Young:    https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/y/youngtr01/lineups/2020

Huerter:  https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/huertke01/lineups/2020

Hunter:   https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/huntede01/lineups/2020

Collins:   https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/collijo01/lineups/2020

 

I just clicked the first one and Cam is -16.2 with Bruno.  Why are we focusing on the 2-man lineups here anyway?

I'd also point out that these numbers can be misleading for guys who don't get heavy minutes against all opponents and are used situationally.  When a coach uses a player he thinks he needs protecting against tougher matchups then the numbers will skew positive on that player because the coach is keeping them from playing in situations where the team is under more pressure.  In essence, if you play someone more often in easier matchup sets then you will see more positive +/- from that player than is truly driven by their performance.

Finally, I'm with you in wanting to see Bruno get more burn at both the 4 and the 5 and have been all year.  I see zero reason to give minutes to Jones and would be very reluctant to play Vince at the 4 or 5.  This becomes even clearer when Dedmon is hurting and Capela is out.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

I just clicked the first one and Cam is -16.2 with Bruno.  Why are we focusing on the 2-man lineups here anyway?

I'd also point out that these numbers can be misleading for guys who don't get heavy minutes against all opponents and are used situationally.  When a coach uses a player he thinks he needs protecting against tougher matchups then the numbers will skew positive on that player because the coach is keeping them from playing in situations where the team is under more pressure.  In essence, if you play someone more often in easier matchup sets then you will see more positive +/- from that player than is truly driven by their performance.

Finally, I'm with you in wanting to see Bruno get more burn at both the 4 and the 5 and have been all year.  I see zero reason to give minutes to Jones and would be very reluctant to play Vince at the 4 or 5.  This becomes even clearer when Dedmon is hurting and Capela is out.

 

So why is Bruno the only Hawk player that has positive numbers with at least 4 of the Core 5? 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/fernabr01/lineups/2020

No other player has a positive effect with those group of players, other than possibly Dedmon, whose numbers don't show up in Hawks lineup across the board just yet.

One of the thing I extensively pointed out early in the year, were the number of 3 point assists Bruno was getting, simply by either finding the open man on the perimeter, or by setting rock solid screens on Trae's man, allowing him enough space to get off 3 pointers.

Bruno's presence in the lineup with another big, represents stability on offense and defense, because he also has a tendency to aggressively challenge the 3 point shots of wings on defense, as well as put a body on centers trying to post him.

The time for spot 3 - 4  minutes needs to end.  He needs extended minutes, much like what he got in the Philly game in that 3rd quarter, to see what the effect on the team truly is.  And if he has to be on the floor at the end of the game, for stability purposes only, so be it.

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by TheNorthCydeRises

[AHF]

I think you didn’t read my post.  I gave the likely explanation above.  LP hasn’t played him in a lot of matchups that he thought were bad.  When facing easier matchups, every player in that 5 man lineup will have better numbers. Our top 5 play against the toughest matchups together and their play against easier matchups are a favorable subset of these total minutes.  If they play with a teammate who plays largely in more favorable matchups their time with that teammates will have more favorable +/- numbers.
 

I’m a Bruno fan and want to see him getting the minutes but have little doubt that his limited play time has helped him in the +/- category.