2020-2021 Season News and Notes

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

This is bad.   There should be some record requirement.  2 years ago the Lakers finished 10th in the conference.   11 games back of the Spurs and Clippers who had the 7&8 seed.  Can you imagine one of those teams getting knocked out of the playoffs and replaced with a team with 10 fewer wins all because you lose the last 2 games of the season?

Agree.  Not a fan of this.  You already had 16 of 30 teams making the playoffs.  You really need to expand that to lottery teams?

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

I thought the #10 seed has to be within 4 games or something like that to qualify for the play-in or something like that.

I don't know?   I hope that's the case.  Same with the #9 seed i would guess?  I haven't seen that but that makes sense since Silver was talking about how many teams are in contention.   If that's the case then that's much better.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

This is bad.   There should be some record requirement.  2 years ago the Lakers finished 10th in the conference.   11 games back of the Spurs and Clippers who had the 7&8 seed.  Can you imagine one of those teams getting knocked out of the playoffs and replaced with a team with 10 fewer wins all because you lose the last 2 games of the season?

 

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

I thought the #10 seed has to be within 4 games or something like that to qualify for the play-in or something like that.

Edited:  The #9 seed has to be within 4 games of the #8 seed to warrant the play-in games.  The East had no playin games in the bubble last playoffs since no teams finished within 4 games of the Magic.  If they don't have this caveat - then it's a really bad idea.

[macdaddy]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

Edited:  The #9 seed has to be within 4 games of the #8 seed to warrant the play-in games.  The East had no playin games in the bubble last playoffs since no teams finished within 4 games of the Magic.  If they don't have this caveat - then it's a really bad idea.

That's not too bad.  I'd rather it be 2 games.   But if the #9 is within 4 does that automatically mean the #10 gets a shot no matter their record.   I'll try to find it

[JayBirdHawk]

9 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

That's not too bad.  I'd rather it be 2 games.   But if the #9 is within 4 does that automatically mean the #10 gets a shot no matter their record.   I'll try to find it

It seems so which I don't like.

• The seventh-place team will host the eighth-place team in a one-game matchup. The winner of that game will earn the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. 
• The ninth-place team will host the 10th-place team in a one-game matchup. The loser of that game is eliminated. 
• The loser of the seventh place vs. eighth place game will host the winner of the ninth place vs. 10th place game in a one-game matchup. The winner of that game will earn the No. 8 seed in the playoffs, and the loser of that game will be eliminated. 
• From that point, the playoffs will proceed as usual.

[RedDawg#8]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

I thought the #10 seed has to be within 4 games or something like that to qualify for the play-in or something like that.

Nah that was the bubble play in scenario. This year is all about seeding at the end of the year.

I think it should be like what you said which would be a hybrid. You can only qualify for the play in if you are within a certain amount of games. My twist would be that it determines the participants both ways.

So if 7 is too far ahead then they dont even have to be included in the play in. And if 8-11 are all with 2-3 games of each other then it gets expanded that way, but only for 1 available spot instead of 2.

Reward the teams that took care of business and separated themselves from the pack. If no team finishes within striking distance then no need for a play in. This aint little league, everyone doesnt get to participate just because. And you aren't safe just because you backed in .5 games ahead of another team. 

[kg01]

On 4/25/2021 at 8:59 AM, bleachkit said:

They didn't want to let him go, it was a financial decision. Had so much money committed to Fox and Buddy. Once we have to start paying the young guys, something similar could to happen to us. 

FWIW, when discussing ATLvMIL, Isola asked why didn't SAC just match and trade Bogd later?

Scalabrine said, this morning, that he heard they didn't match Bogd because Buddy Hield was "up in arms" about them bringing Bogd back.

Take it with a grain of salt, of course.

[RedDawg#8]

1 minute ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Nah that was the bubble play in scenario. This year is all about seeding at the end of the year.

I think it should be like what you said which would be a hybrid. You can only qualify for the play in if you are within a certain amount of games. My twist would be that it determines the participants both ways.

So if 7 is too far ahead then they dont even have to be included in the play in. And if 8-11 are all with 2-3 games of each other then it gets expanded that way, but only for 1 available spot instead of 2.

Reward the teams that took care of business and separated themselves from the pack. If no team finishes within striking distance then no need for a play in. This aint little league, everyone doesnt get to participate just because. And you aren't safe just because you backed in .5 games ahead of another team. 

My scenario is based on the bubble and the fact that the Blazers, Suns, Spurs, Grizzlies we're all within striking distance, but only the Grizz and Blazers got to face off for 1 spot, despite the Suns being the hottest team at that time and having a tied record with the Grizzlies.

Why not let them battle it out too.

[JayBirdHawk]

8 minutes ago, kg01 said:

FWIW, when discussing ATLvMIL, Isola asked why didn't SAC just match and trade Bogd later?

Scalabrine said, this morning, that he heard they didn't match Bogd because Buddy Hield was "up in arms" about them bringing Bogd back.

Take it with a grain of salt, of course.

What's even worse is they declined to take our OKC 2022 1st - even if it ends up being 2 2nds - that is the most perplexing thing. What if by some miracle OKC makes the playoffs, particularly now with the playin games.

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Somebody in the the Big D is gonna be mega mad.  

[kg01]

@RedDawg#8 if that Dunn report got your *ahem* attention, you might need to smoke a pack o' cigs if you listen to the NBARadio breakdown of the Hawks right now.

I'm shocked how positive they're being right now.  Host asked why people are talking about the Heat when the Hawks have had more injuries and are winning at a higher clip.

Said Bogd could be EC Player of the Month.  May be their best player during this stretch.

Completely different team in 4th qtrs - showed it vs MIA and MIL although both had their best players.

Team is similar to the SEA teams Nate played on - multiple guys that can score.  7 guys that can score even if you don't include Trae = dangerous playoff team.

Eddie Johnson said the Hawks "intimidate people" and that the Heat look at the Hawks and (I'm paraphrasing) see a better scoring and bigger version of themselves (in terms of taking the floor with the thought they can beat anybody).

"Hawks have the size to deal with anybody." - Not sure I agree with that but, shiiiii, I'll take it.

Said winning while Trae is out will make him a better player.  Wouldn't be surprised if Bogd handles more ballhandling duties to help Trae get to the next level. - Not sure I agree with this because he's discounting the fact that playmaking is Trae's true elite skill.

 

[kg01]

To elaborate, he said the Hawks have tough guys .. guys with an attitude.

Me likes.

[Spud2nique]

3 minutes ago, kg01 said:

To elaborate, he said the Hawks have tough guys .. guys with an attitude.

Me likes.

I was thinking that earlier, we’ve never had this many mentally tough guys.  

[RedDawg#8]

13 minutes ago, kg01 said:

@RedDawg#8 if that Dunn report got your *ahem* attention, you might need to smoke a pack o' cigs if you listen to the NBARadio breakdown of the Hawks right now.

I'm shocked how positive they're being right now.  Host asked why people are talking about the Heat when the Hawks have had more injuries and are winning at a higher clip.

Said Bogd could be EC Player of the Month.  May be their best player during this stretch.

Completely different team in 4th qtrs - showed it vs MIA and MIL although both had their best players.

Team is similar to the SEA teams Nate played on - multiple guys that can score.  7 guys that can score even if you don't include Trae = dangerous playoff team.

Eddie Johnson said the Hawks "intimidate people" and that the Heat look at the Hawks and (I'm paraphrasing) see a better scoring and bigger version of themselves (in terms of taking the floor with the thought they can beat anybody).

"Hawks have the size to deal with anybody." - Not sure I agree with that but, shiiiii, I'll take it.

Said winning while Trae is out will make him a better player.  Wouldn't be surprised if Bogd handles more ballhandling duties to help Trae get to the next level. - Not sure I agree with this because he's discounting the fact that playmaking is Trae's true elite skill.

 

That's legit. I wish I listened to it. I really hope they are right. At this point I'm just hoping for guys to make it back in time to build some chemistry. But in the meantime, the available bodies are still doing a great  job for us.

[RedDawg#8]

4 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I was thinking that earlier, we’ve never had this many mentally tough guys.  

When I saw the lineup of Gallo, Clint, Solo, Bogi, and Lou pop up on the tv I was like, damn, it's really about to go down. Nobody in that group was going to beat themselves. The Bucks were in trouble and they didn't even know it.

[RandomFan]

9 hours ago, benhillboy said:

Is there anyone with ESPN+ nice enough to post the meaty parts of Pelton’s latest take on the Hawks’ surge?  He’s a little too nerdy for me, I much rather read the film/ stat balance of Lowe but I’m still interested in what he’s gonna say beyond the obvious Nate and Bogi praise.

Since the Atlanta Hawks replaced coach Lloyd Pierce with Nate McMillan on an interim basis on March 1, no team in the Eastern Conference has a better record than their 20-7 mark.

Atlanta, aiming to return to the NBA playoffs after three rebuilding years in the draft lottery, has moved from 11th in the East when the change was made up to a tie for fourth with the New York Knicks, giving the Hawks a legitimate chance at home-court advantage in the opening round.

Most of the attention on the race for fourth in the East has focused on the even more surprising Knicks -- winners of nine straight games and whose playoff drought is far longer at seven years -- as well as last year's competitors in the Eastern Conference finals (the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat).

Is Atlanta being overshadowed in that competition? What has changed to fuel the Hawks' run over the past two months? And how much of a threat are they to land a first-round upset? Let's take a closer look.

The McMillan effect?

When the Hawks made their coaching change, I wrote they were "poised for a turnaround" no matter who was on the sideline. Notably, Atlanta had underperformed a break-even point differential by about three wins during a 14-20 start under Pierce and hadn't gotten many contributions from newcomers Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, Danilo Gallinari and Rajon Rondo because of injuries.

Still, even the most optimistic Hawks believers would have been hard-pressed to foresee how well the team has played under McMillan -- particularly because the team hasn't exactly gotten healthy despite Bogdanovic's return. Dunn still hasn't played this season. De'Andre Hunter, who was off to a strong start before undergoing surgery to address wear and tear in the articular cartilage in his right knee, returned to play just two games before being shut down because of soreness. And fellow second-year wing Cam Reddish hasn't come back from Achilles soreness since the coaching change.

In part, Atlanta has benefited from an easier schedule. The Hawks' average opponent under Pierce had a plus-0.5 point differential, the league's eighth-hardest schedule over that span. Since the coaching change, Atlanta's average opponent has a minus-0.6 differential, ranking as ninth easiest since then. Schedule strength alone isn't enough to explain the Hawks' turnaround: After adjusting for opposition, Atlanta has still played more than four points per game better under McMillan.

Certainly, having Bogdanovic healthy has been a key factor. When they signed him to a four-year, $72 million offer sheet as a restricted free agent last fall, the Hawks surely envisioned Bogdanovic would help keep their offense strong while star guard Trae Young rests -- a critical weakness in 2019-20. Bogdanovic played just 92 minutes with Young on the bench before the coaching change, during which Atlanta was outscored by 9.5 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Bogdanovic returned from an avulsion fracture in his right knee for McMillan's first game as interim coach and has played the majority of the minutes Young has sat (65%) since then, turning a weakness into a strength. The Hawks have a plus-2.6 net rating with Young on the bench since the coaching change and have outscored opponents by an incredible 8.3 points per 100 possessions when Bogdanovic plays and Young sits. Bogdanovic has also helped Atlanta go 5-0 in the games Young has missed since the coaching change, averaging 26.8 points and six 3-pointers per game in those wins.

Then there's the matter of close games. Under Pierce, the Hawks went .500 (14-14) in games decided by more than five points but 0-6 in those within five points. Just two other teams in NBA history with a .500 record or better in non-close games have been winless in those decided by five or fewer points 34 games into the season: the 1983-84 San Antonio Spurs (0-9) and 1984-85 Portland Trail Blazers (0-7).

Two of McMillan's first three games as head coach were close wins over the Orlando Magic (by three) and the Toronto Raptors (by one); Atlanta is 6-1 overall in games decided by five or fewer points since the coaching change. It's tempting to attribute that to coaching, but team records in close games are highly volatile. There has been little relationship historically between team performance in close games (relative to their record in other games) across the two halves of the season.

---

Projecting the playoff Hawks

Even without factoring in their strong run in close games, Atlanta has played at a high level under McMillan. Adjusted for opponent, the Hawks have rated 4.9 points per game better than league average since the coaching change, which ranks seventh in the league over that span and third among East teams, behind Philadelphia (plus-6.4) and Milwaukee (plus-5.8).

The big question about sustainability is whether Atlanta can keep up its hot shooting. Under McMillan, the Hawks are making 39% of their 3-pointers, good for fourth in the league. The return of Bogdanovic, a 38% career 3-point shooter, is part of that. Frankly, the injury to Reddish has helped, given he was making just 26% of his 3s this season after hitting 33% as a rookie. But Atlanta is more likely to settle in the range of 37% to 38% rather than keep threatening 40%.

The Hawks' chances of winning a playoff series for the first time since 2016 will depend in large part on whether they can stay in either the fourth or fifth seed in the East, giving them a much more favorable matchup than having to face one of the conference's top three teams (Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Philadelphia) and a chance at home-court advantage in the opening round. Projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index give Atlanta about a 44% chance of finishing in the top five.

Unless they face the Knicks, the Hawks will likely be at a serious disadvantage in terms of playoff experience, which has translated into first-round upsets in the past. Heat reserve Andre Iguodala has more career playoff minutes by himself (5,134) than Atlanta has as a team (4,774).

The disadvantage is even more extreme in terms of stars. Of the Hawks' five leading scorers, only Clint Capela has ever appeared in the postseason. Young in particular is worth watching, because we haven't seen teams get the chance to build a playoff-type scouting report on how to stop him on offense and take advantage of his physical shortcomings as a defender.

Despite their lack of playoff experience, the Hawks shouldn't be considered heavy underdogs against any possible opponent in a 4-5 matchup. The Celtics are probably the best of this group from a talent perspective, but Atlanta has played better over a longer stretch than Boston's current surge. The Hawks also boast the best point differential of this group at plus-2.4 points per game, just ahead of the Knicks (plus-2.2) and Celtics (plus-1.7).

Given where Atlanta was on March 1, making the playoffs without going through the NBA's new play-in tournament should be considered an accomplishment. But what the Hawks have done since then offers reason to hope they can do more than just reach the playoffs.

[benhillboy]

45 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

Since the Atlanta Hawks replaced coach Lloyd Pierce with Nate McMillan on an interim basis on March 1, no team in the Eastern Conference has a better record than their 20-7 mark.

Atlanta, aiming to return to the NBA playoffs after three rebuilding years in the draft lottery, has moved from 11th in the East when the change was made up to a tie for fourth with the New York Knicks, giving the Hawks a legitimate chance at home-court advantage in the opening round.

Most of the attention on the race for fourth in the East has focused on the even more surprising Knicks -- winners of nine straight games and whose playoff drought is far longer at seven years -- as well as last year's competitors in the Eastern Conference finals (the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat).

Is Atlanta being overshadowed in that competition? What has changed to fuel the Hawks' run over the past two months? And how much of a threat are they to land a first-round upset? Let's take a closer look.

The McMillan effect?

When the Hawks made their coaching change, I wrote they were "poised for a turnaround" no matter who was on the sideline. Notably, Atlanta had underperformed a break-even point differential by about three wins during a 14-20 start under Pierce and hadn't gotten many contributions from newcomers Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, Danilo Gallinari and Rajon Rondo because of injuries.

Still, even the most optimistic Hawks believers would have been hard-pressed to foresee how well the team has played under McMillan -- particularly because the team hasn't exactly gotten healthy despite Bogdanovic's return. Dunn still hasn't played this season. De'Andre Hunter, who was off to a strong start before undergoing surgery to address wear and tear in the articular cartilage in his right knee, returned to play just two games before being shut down because of soreness. And fellow second-year wing Cam Reddish hasn't come back from Achilles soreness since the coaching change.

In part, Atlanta has benefited from an easier schedule. The Hawks' average opponent under Pierce had a plus-0.5 point differential, the league's eighth-hardest schedule over that span. Since the coaching change, Atlanta's average opponent has a minus-0.6 differential, ranking as ninth easiest since then. Schedule strength alone isn't enough to explain the Hawks' turnaround: After adjusting for opposition, Atlanta has still played more than four points per game better under McMillan.

Certainly, having Bogdanovic healthy has been a key factor. When they signed him to a four-year, $72 million offer sheet as a restricted free agent last fall, the Hawks surely envisioned Bogdanovic would help keep their offense strong while star guard Trae Young rests -- a critical weakness in 2019-20. Bogdanovic played just 92 minutes with Young on the bench before the coaching change, during which Atlanta was outscored by 9.5 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Bogdanovic returned from an avulsion fracture in his right knee for McMillan's first game as interim coach and has played the majority of the minutes Young has sat (65%) since then, turning a weakness into a strength. The Hawks have a plus-2.6 net rating with Young on the bench since the coaching change and have outscored opponents by an incredible 8.3 points per 100 possessions when Bogdanovic plays and Young sits. Bogdanovic has also helped Atlanta go 5-0 in the games Young has missed since the coaching change, averaging 26.8 points and six 3-pointers per game in those wins.

Then there's the matter of close games. Under Pierce, the Hawks went .500 (14-14) in games decided by more than five points but 0-6 in those within five points. Just two other teams in NBA history with a .500 record or better in non-close games have been winless in those decided by five or fewer points 34 games into the season: the 1983-84 San Antonio Spurs (0-9) and 1984-85 Portland Trail Blazers (0-7).

Two of McMillan's first three games as head coach were close wins over the Orlando Magic (by three) and the Toronto Raptors (by one); Atlanta is 6-1 overall in games decided by five or fewer points since the coaching change. It's tempting to attribute that to coaching, but team records in close games are highly volatile. There has been little relationship historically between team performance in close games (relative to their record in other games) across the two halves of the season.

---

Projecting the playoff Hawks

Even without factoring in their strong run in close games, Atlanta has played at a high level under McMillan. Adjusted for opponent, the Hawks have rated 4.9 points per game better than league average since the coaching change, which ranks seventh in the league over that span and third among East teams, behind Philadelphia (plus-6.4) and Milwaukee (plus-5.8).

The big question about sustainability is whether Atlanta can keep up its hot shooting. Under McMillan, the Hawks are making 39% of their 3-pointers, good for fourth in the league. The return of Bogdanovic, a 38% career 3-point shooter, is part of that. Frankly, the injury to Reddish has helped, given he was making just 26% of his 3s this season after hitting 33% as a rookie. But Atlanta is more likely to settle in the range of 37% to 38% rather than keep threatening 40%.

The Hawks' chances of winning a playoff series for the first time since 2016 will depend in large part on whether they can stay in either the fourth or fifth seed in the East, giving them a much more favorable matchup than having to face one of the conference's top three teams (Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Philadelphia) and a chance at home-court advantage in the opening round. Projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index give Atlanta about a 44% chance of finishing in the top five.

Unless they face the Knicks, the Hawks will likely be at a serious disadvantage in terms of playoff experience, which has translated into first-round upsets in the past. Heat reserve Andre Iguodala has more career playoff minutes by himself (5,134) than Atlanta has as a team (4,774).

The disadvantage is even more extreme in terms of stars. Of the Hawks' five leading scorers, only Clint Capela has ever appeared in the postseason. Young in particular is worth watching, because we haven't seen teams get the chance to build a playoff-type scouting report on how to stop him on offense and take advantage of his physical shortcomings as a defender.

Despite their lack of playoff experience, the Hawks shouldn't be considered heavy underdogs against any possible opponent in a 4-5 matchup. The Celtics are probably the best of this group from a talent perspective, but Atlanta has played better over a longer stretch than Boston's current surge. The Hawks also boast the best point differential of this group at plus-2.4 points per game, just ahead of the Knicks (plus-2.2) and Celtics (plus-1.7).

Given where Atlanta was on March 1, making the playoffs without going through the NBA's new play-in tournament should be considered an accomplishment. But what the Hawks have done since then offers reason to hope they can do more than just reach the playoffs.

Preciate it.  It came out formatted weird but I got the gist of it.

[benhillboy]

Bogi certainly doesn’t rush on a coast-to-coast.  How long is his hot streak gonna last damn.

[benhillboy]

I thought Dwayne Casey was dead.  Glad he’s still with us.

[benhillboy]

Finally this guy hits the floor.  Dunn ain’t out of shape is he?