NBASupes Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-player-projections/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REHawksFan Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, NBASupes said: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-player-projections/ Projecting the Hawks at 35 wins. Seems kinda low to me. If Hunter and Reddish take a year 2 bump, I'm thinking 42-45 wins is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member aali34 Posted December 17, 2020 Premium Member Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, REHawksFan said: Projecting the Hawks at 35 wins. Seems kinda low to me. If Hunter and Reddish take a year 2 bump, I'm thinking 42-45 wins is realistic. Is it based on 82 games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBASupes Posted December 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, aali34 said: Is it based on 82 games? No. 46 wins on 82 games https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/hawks/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REHawksFan Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, aali34 said: Is it based on 82 games? No. 72 games. They are projecting 35-37 as the record. I think if Hunter and Cam take a step forward in year two, this team will be in the 42-45 win range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REHawksFan Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, NBASupes said: No. 46 wins on 82 games https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/hawks/ The minute distribution seems way off on this, no? I cannot imagine a scenario where Gallo and Hunter only play 17 minutes per game as they are projecting. Cam gets 20 min a game? And Kris Dunn gets no run? Something is off there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NBASupes Posted December 17, 2020 Author Popular Post Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, REHawksFan said: Projecting the Hawks at 35 wins. Seems kinda low to me. If Hunter and Reddish take a year 2 bump, I'm thinking 42-45 wins is realistic. Hunter and Reddish projections aren't terrible but it's mucking up our projections because neither are expected to be much better than Prince or Tony Snell next year. If they are good or very good players. We should be one of the best teams in the NBA. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurpilo Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 I agree with their projections, is what I predicted as well. I think team is too young and we will have our ups and downs, we are not going to play to our full strength all games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators AHF Posted December 18, 2020 Moderators Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/17/2020 at 3:53 PM, NBASupes said: Hunter and Reddish projections aren't terrible but it's mucking up our projections because neither are expected to be much better than Prince or Tony Snell next year. If they are good or very good players. We should be one of the best teams in the NBA. Gwu > Reddish Dunn > Hunter Etc. My eyebrow is raised. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBASupes Posted December 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 hours ago, AHF said: Gwu > Reddish Dunn > Hunter Etc. My eyebrow is raised. Dunn is not shocking. He appears a lot more favorable than Hunter in all analytics because Hunter was overmatched for his role as he needed a year to adjust to the new position and then we played him far too many mins. Gwu > Reddish makes a lot of sense. Reddish had a negative rookie year. Gwu matches up favorably to rookies who had a lot of success as rookies. Once again, Reddish like Hunter didn't have good years as rookies. I didn't think much about it. I expected. I expected it to be even worse than it was, especially for Hunter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBASupes Posted December 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 On 12/17/2020 at 5:23 PM, gurpilo said: I agree with their projections, is what I predicted as well. I think team is too young and we will have our ups and downs, we are not going to play to our full strength all games. After watching all three preseason games. I think 8th-9th seed is fair but if Trae is what he was last year offensively with his new found defense, we are special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBASupes Posted December 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 For those who want to know, here is last year's projection. I have it on Durant: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-projections/kevin-durant/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators AHF Posted December 21, 2020 Moderators Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 7:53 PM, NBASupes said: Dunn is not shocking. He appears a lot more favorable than Hunter in all analytics because Hunter was overmatched for his role as he needed a year to adjust to the new position and then we played him far too many mins. Gwu > Reddish makes a lot of sense. Reddish had a negative rookie year. Gwu matches up favorably to rookies who had a lot of success as rookies. Once again, Reddish like Hunter didn't have good years as rookies. I didn't think much about it. I expected. I expected it to be even worse than it was, especially for Hunter. It is a failing of the metric to not account properly for growth at least IMO. Reddish had a brutally terrible 2019. Reddish had an excellent 2020. (Same to a lesser degree for Hunter). The metric can't track that develop and its projection likely gives the same weight to games in November as it did to games in February despite the very different context (the November games with someone who had been hurt for quite a while and was naturally rusty after missing the summer and preseason and the other a better reflection of his getting healthy and making an adjustment to the speed of the league). Again, my eyebrow is raised for how much to rely on that metric for young players. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators AHF Posted December 21, 2020 Moderators Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just checked on Trae who was in basically the same exact position as Reddish with a terrible 2018 and vastly improved 2019 (although no injury factor). The metric couldn't distinguish between taking his lumps adjusting to the league in 2018 and the more meaningful baseline of play once adjusted in 2019. It projected him at 2.7 WAR for the 2019-20 season. Then gave him an actual rating almost 3x better at 7.2 WAR for the actual season. Projected him for a -0.5 RAPTOR and then he actually put up a +1.8 RAPTOR. Those are both huge swings. Granted it is always going to be tough to project younger players but my eyebrows remain raised on how accurately it is going to project growth for our youngsters. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member Peoriabird Posted January 23, 2021 Premium Member Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 12/17/2020 at 4:53 PM, NBASupes said: Hunter and Reddish projections aren't terrible but it's mucking up our projections because neither are expected to be much better than Prince or Tony Snell next year. If they are good or very good players. We should be one of the best teams in the NBA. interesting! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBASupes Posted January 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 12/21/2020 at 11:58 AM, AHF said: Just checked on Trae who was in basically the same exact position as Reddish with a terrible 2018 and vastly improved 2019 (although no injury factor). The metric couldn't distinguish between taking his lumps adjusting to the league in 2018 and the more meaningful baseline of play once adjusted in 2019. It projected him at 2.7 WAR for the 2019-20 season. Then gave him an actual rating almost 3x better at 7.2 WAR for the actual season. Projected him for a -0.5 RAPTOR and then he actually put up a +1.8 RAPTOR. Those are both huge swings. Granted it is always going to be tough to project younger players but my eyebrows remain raised on how accurately it is going to project growth for our youngsters. Just looking at 2021 early metrics: Trae while having little improvement on defense, has been much worse than his top 10 offensive status till more recently improving it of late. This makes him a top 70 player via WAR and a 100 overall for the RAPTOR. He is tied at 12th Offensive RAPTOR with LeBron James and Luka Doncic. Hunter who was one of the worst players in the NBA last year at 242 at the WAR and 237 RAPTOR. This year, he's been 24th overall at WAR and 34th overall at the RAPTOR. Cam improvement has been nice but nothing close to Hunter. His WAR is 116 and is a 132 at the RAPTOR. Last year, his WAR was 225 and his RAPTOR was 225. JC RAPTOR and WAR are on pace for this best in his career as well as Capela. While Gallinari WAR isn't impressive, his RAPTOR is the best on the team and 9th in the NBA for anyone playing more than playing more than 41 minutes this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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